Don Cossack fell in The King George then won The Gold Cup 3 months later.

In the impending Gold Cup I'd have Santini before Delta Work; Lostintranslation before Santini; Kemboy before Al Boum Photo. Just  do not know which of the 3 is best.

I find it impossible to construct a plausible case for Santini to beat Delta Work ???

How about watching last years RSA...Was that impossible ?

so delta work can have a off day but santini cant ?

he beat the horse who finished third in last years gold cup with two decent handicappers well down the field in a decent time compared to delta work times but the question was why can one have a off day but not the other

Gazo, any horse is entitled to an off day.  But that really isn't the point.  Delta Work has collateral form subsequent to the RSA that suggests he might be good enough to win a Gold Cup.  Santini doesn't.

He was all out to beat Bristol de Mai 3.5L after BDM had made an uncharacteristic blunder at a crucial time.  This is the same Bristol de Mai that got beat 6L in last years Gold Cup and 10L at Aintree, with both those winners likely to reoppose here.  Meanwhile, The horse that beat him 10L at Aintree has been beaten by Delta Work the last twice.  And yet he is a shorter price.  If that makes sense to you, I would genuinely like to hear why.

Fair enough.  I though Delta Work's latest performance was way in advance of Santini's but that's just my opinion. We will find out when they meet- hopefully in the Gold Cup.

Yes I agree.  If Al Boum runs to the same level as last year he will take some beating.  I backed Kemboy at a very big price before Aintree last season, but I am not exactly brimming with confidence now.  Also got a bit on Presenting Percy at an even bigger price.  If anything Delta Work has beaten might turn it round over a stiffer test it could be him.

If you are on Delta Work at a good price, I think you are in a very enviable position.  And I am well aware I might have got Santini very wrong. 

FWIW my biggest ante post bet was on poor old Topofthegame, so at the time I certainly hoped the RSA form line was going to turn out to be the right one.

I think both Santini and DW have solid chances of winning the GC. On a number of occasions people that are not keen on santini refer to the mistake BDM made 3 out. I would trust the objectivity of this argument much more if they also acknowledged the mister and momentum lost by Santini two out and that the horse actually deserves credit for coming back again and winning. I have watched a lot of screws over the years and a whole heap of them would have thrown in the towel after that mistake. Objectively I think he at least deserves some credit for how he responded.

The thing is sophie if he does that at cheltenham he wont win

Ive seen all the leading fancies not jump as well as they can at times.
That's one of the things we cannot legislate for.....how they jump on the day.

As far as my DW is concerned I have been pretty happy with his last two rounds of jumping.
Just hope he can repeat that with a different jockey.

Totally agree Milton's Sophie, and he really seemed to finish his race better too.  I guess the focus on BDM's mistake is that this is a rarity for him, but it is very fair to point out Santini can do better with a better round of jumping.

^
Agree, and I've been saying it on here ever since his debut this season.

Massive support for Santini today and is now best priced 9/2. The penny has finally dropped.....

It is getting shorter

7/2 at most sites now. Joint fav on here.....getting closer to my April prediction of 3/1 fav on the day.

It’s my biggest bet ever and at 12/1 as well. Can’t lay off...or is that me being stupid

Doubled at big prices with Defi (8/1), Goshan (14/1) and Champ (8/1) as well

Yes, your right. Let it ride

I think one reason for the huge support is the long range weather forecast looks like the Festival will be on soft ground.
5/1 to 7/2 in 3 days is quite a move.

Fingers crossed it’s not soft ground again as it’s more interesting if they are running on different ground to what they’ve been on all season.

I wouldn't be getting carried away about the ground, it's the same most years, mid february and we're all flooded, March arrives and the sun comes out, by the time Cheltenham starts hey're talking about watering.

Hibore... to your post of the 13th... If it was me there is no way I would lay off.

Assuming you can afford to lose what you bet on your 'biggest bet ever' don't ruin the story for the grandchildren by telling them you laid half back.

Personally, I hope you lay your stake and more back, but only because I don't think it will win.  In your position, I would  not lay any back in  a million years.

But I work hard for a wage; only bet fun money, and dream of copping a few bags for a week in Barbados.

You are only "stupid" if you need the dough for necessities. I really hope you cop if none of mine can win. 

I belong to the other school of thought. If I've several contenders in a seemingly open-race (like this year) I'd always 'lay' off accordingly ie my long term and consistent success rate eg 2/5. Similarly, if I only have one eg Don Cossack - backed from 8/1 to 12/1 (after falling in the King George) - the price of 2/1 (on race day) I 'laid' off to win just a small 4 figure ie 2/3 (win regardless of result). He won, but I was not disappointed or felt cheated; balancing the book (purpose of The Exchange) must be the priority regardless.

However, I did not 'lay' off in the duel between Native River (8/1) and Might Bite (6/1); the later would have won me more. Only regret I did not do the forecast.

Hibore... I sympathise fully with the Native River one.  Had been having little bits each week and ended up standing to win about 3 grand.  Tizzards were not right that Festival and he did heroically to be 3rd.  I reckon the next year, when I was all over Presenting percy, I had eniugh on Native River that I won nack the previous year's stake.  So it goes.  Half an hour later, I watched them go to the stary for the Foxhunter, and thought 'Pacha would have won that with a  jock on last year, and he looks well. I wonder what price he is." Got a big price win only on the exchange a minute before the off.

What I am saying is, its great getting excited about these antepost dreams, but in the end you get so many swings of fortune at the festival that it all evens out in the end.  Enjoy the anticipation, and all the better if it wins!

Imp, I understand your point, but I look at antepost staking a bit differently.  The ones you are wrong about antepost never give you the chance to ameliorate a bad position, so by laying off the ones you are right about, you make a long term profit even harder than it already was. 

But that is for me: I like chancing my arm a good time before the race: if you are making money your way it can't be wrong.  As it goes I am ahead in my lifetime betting antepost on the Festival, but only because of one miraculous year; I make more on the festival handicaps overall, most often betting on the day.  But I do most betting on a Saturday, and enjoy 'reinvesting' a bit of what I win week to week on long term pipe dreams because it keeps me interested and gives me the occasional shot at a big win.

Finally, Swagger, your points are all valid and I sort of suspect NH might have sorted Santini out, but I still think Delta Work will beat him.  If I am wrong I totally accept that, but we all judge what we see and firm an opinion in the end.  PP and Kemboy are both big antepost winners for me, but the former doesn't look good enough, and the latter has done nothing to prove Punchestown (not Aintree) the signoficant formline.

As the race comes closer, I find it harder and harder to see a good reason the champ won't defend his title.

Sorry for the long post, but I really appreciate everyone putting the time in to exchange their views on here.  The HR forum is loopy, and it is nice to be able to hear people make cases that challenge what I think.