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Cheltenham Festival
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These 293 comments are related to the topic:
Santini - Gold Cup 2020
Santini - Gold Cup 2020
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Replies: 293
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ENGLAND... Delta Work was 25s before last run if you back him now you have paid a huge price to find out. The more you try and lessen risk by seeking proof the less likely you are to find value. Santini price has barely fluctuated from the start not one firm has gone out on a limb on the horse. Perhaps the right question to ask is why.....
My take on it is all the firms think santini is tailor made for a GC. I disagree just slightly with Hibore as I would expect him to drift to say12s somewhere if he finishes placed Saturday just like he did last time when he disappointed in victory. Some chose to crab his performance others mopped up the 12s. It would be absolutely no surprise if it happened again. Barring a disaster Saturday I cannot see him drifting significantly for reason given. |
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But I do fancy Santini in a wide open race, but just don’t see the value.
So far I’ve had very small bets on Santini 12/1, Lostintranslation 11/2 (assuming he’s would win the King George), Delta work 14/1, Presenting Percy 11/1 and Monalee 20/1. I did these in and around Christmas racing. You may be correct on Monalee not staying, and de Bromhead seems to prefer running a horse over shorter than expected so I’m on it at 33/1 for the ryanair just incase. It’s shaping up to be an exciting race, and not one I will go in heavy as one mistake could cost a good 5 lengths in loss of momentum and energy to get back to where it was! |
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Santini is Hendo, and that speaks volume in the betting market. His RSA run was very good given a troubled prep, but not his only outing this season which was underwhelming; 9/1 is about right - he'd be much shorter if he does a Lostintranslation against Bristol De Mai (BDM) this saturday even though the venue is not Haydock.
If Santini shows the same potential of last season he'd be more likely to finish in front of Delta Work again, I believe. |
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I do think the horse has bags of talent but I do agree with some that he'll be less than impressive again this weekend.
Then though I think we will see connections apply some form of headgear for the first time in the GC itself, without it he won't be winning anything, a cursory look at his last run tells you all you need to know, he is yet another Henderson horse who is quirky and needs help. |
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Loo at the run in of the RSA,reckon he's putting it all in ? Is the head carriage slightly iffy? I think so.
If you're not too sure then his last run is pretty clear. |
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Quirky and needs help ....... looks like I need a set of blinkers
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Moment of truth tomorrow for Santini fans. Third highest OR, joint second on RPR and that rating was his RSA second which is way clear of his other runs. So why is he 6/4? Because of the trainer and the opinions of many on this thread who think he is open to massive improvement. He should be 9/2 tomorrow on all known form but I would not lay that as I genuinely don't have a clue how good he is. The interesting runners are De Rasher Counter who is highly rated on official figures but again only on one run and Slate House who is improving by a rate of knots and is my selection.
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From what I have seen the only posters on this forum that believe tomorrow is a moment of truth for santini are posters that are not his fans. From what I have read his fans are hoping for but not expecting a great performance tomorrow. Many comments I have seen suggest his fans think his big performance will be in March and not before.
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If he is a Gold Cup contender he has to win tomorrow surely. None of these apart from maybe Bristol de Mai are within 10lb of a Gold Cup winner.
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Take a look at the record books and you will find a fair few gc winners that were not top rated or even that close to being top rated on the morning of the race.
Last year the first two home were joint 9th highest rated in the race and 9 pound below the three highest rated horses. The only point I was trying to make is you stated it was the moment of truth for the horses fans, not the horse but his fans and I was just pointing out that his fans think he will be many pounds better in the unique test that a GC provides compared to other races including tomorrow so they don’t see it like you do. |
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moment of truth will be when he's sporting a giant set of rollers on either side of his chops
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Let’s hope one of them isn’t Les Mckeown
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Pace of the race is the major concern. I’m not sure it will anything more than a steady gallop which won’t suit the big fella.
If they go flat out then no excuses. Topping up at 9/1  |
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I'm one of his fans based on his 2nd in The RSA after a troubled prep. I do hope he improves enormously from his 1st run, and wins tomorrow to justify his present position in the market. But, I'm far from confident given the presence of BDM. If bombing-out his participation in the Gold Cup is in serious jeopardy, I reckon.
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Whether you fancy the horse or not, as it stands Santini is in the same camp as Pentland Hills in as much they have no business being single figures for their respective targets.
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I can see BDM beating Santini today , and then that being reversed in March
I think odds on both horses could be quiet different after fodays race to what they are now. Santini is all about the Gold Cup,if he fails to perform well in that race they will probably go more National type races. That will be his make or break race,not any other race. |
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Today is very much a watershed for Santini
Lauded on here as a Gold Cup horse 10/1 It needs to produce. Unlike Percy last year , who won the RSA as well as a previous festival hurdle , Santini night not even get there if he doesnt produce today , lets hope he does. |
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Well he needs to run a decent type of race,but by no means does he need to win,and I don't think connections need convincing of his ability to run well in the Gold Cup.
I understand joe public may disagree on this , as this thread demonstrates,but it's how connections see it that matters. Hope I am right on this, but of course in this game I may not be. |
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Irishone .... do you mean he. Freudian slip perhaps
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Santini is a gelding , it or he will do
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Well Santini won. Never looked the winner until half way up the run in but he does stay.
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Question marks about his jumping today
Id want at least 12s after that |
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Nico ..... "He jumped really well all the way round"
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one of those that keep finding a bit ,lazy bugger who needs stoking but has a good attitude and willbe staying on when others have had enough .
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Connection should be well happy with that today.
May or may not have won without the BDM error at the 3rd last, but for sure the extra distance in March will do him no harm!! Jumping did not look too bad to me aside from the hesitant jump at the end,I don't see his jumping being an issue. That was a proper race today,hes a serious threat. |
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Fiddled four out, hit two out
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He still looks quirky to me, he's a thorough stayer alright but will something be coming up the hill quicker, ABP for instance is a thorough stayer also but he was a thorough stayer that was sprightly up the run in last year, is Santini a souped up Don Poli?
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He is certainly not the usual model of a staying chaser but he is very deceptive. He looks very slow so he must have a very long stride.
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Nico was good on him today and it certainly points to a plan on not hitting the front too soon, it would have been easy for the jockey to go for home when BDM made the mistake and Santini was suddenly 3 lengths clear, but he waited with him and it deceptively made it look like BDM was right back at him. They deffo have decided he wants to wait for as long as they dare on him IMO.
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Some good points here. I am a huge fan and managed to get a decent thump on at 33/1 before I got to the hot toddy bar last year after the RSA. So in that sense I am biased. He is as strong a stayer as I've seen for many a year save for Native River , whom he reminds me of. I agree that he seems a little....ungainly... from time to time but that was only his 9th race under rules and 10th including PtP. I agree that NdB rode him a little conservatively once he had the lead, but I suspect that may change on the big day. Duffy is right that he may be picked off but he has the Coneygree jockey on him and it wouldn't surprise me if he hit the front down the hill and kept on. Irishone is correct that he wasn't foot perfect but I think he may jump better on less soft ground. Anyway, at least after today I can dream on. Had a reasonable punt at 2/1 today to put me well in profit on this horse so not the end of the world if it gets beat in March. Good luck to you all.
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race over 14.34 ish Post 1 ... 14.35 post 2 14.36......possibly a case of protesteth too much...... are you sure you’re not secretly just a little bit worried (smiley face)
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Beat BDM similar distance as ABP did.
Read into that what you will. End of the day he's just beat a fair yardstick and thrashed the rest. And will no doubt be better for the extra furlong or so. Anyone not backed him should be worried. Still a working mans price!! |
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I know he has a lot of fans and seems to have almost cult status but NTD is possibly the worst most ingracious loser of any trainer going. Prior to BDM running against lost he was banging on about lost being unproven and undeserving of the attention he was getting pre race. He had the best horse, the proven horse and deserved more respect. He then got beat. Rather than praise the winner he suddenly claims his horse badly needed the run and was the moral winner.
His horse gets beat again. Again not a word of praise for the winner who only won because his horse made a mistake 3 out but for which he would have won. Like Arsene Wenger he clearly didn’t see the mistake the winner made two out.Theses are just two examples. He never gets called out for it and does it all the time. I know how populat he is and I will no doubt get slated but anyway was good to get it off my chest. |
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No slating from me.
Hes a trainer that I have never trusted with his comments. If all that is true it makes him a pretty sore loser,and some sort of A ****!! |
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I couldn’t be more happy after Santini’s run yesterday. I thought he jumped beautifully apart from the 2nd last and did what I hoped he’d do up the hill.
He’s such a big lazy horse that there should more improvement to come. BDM is a great yardstick and I don’t think there is much between ABP or Santini around Cheltenham. Irishone thinks he should be 12/1....if that is the case Presenting Percy would be 50/1. Which is about his chance. |
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Ha ha, I would love to have 12 available right now!!
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Any idea of Santini's new rating ? I'd imagine 171 or 172 if you use BDM.
Strangely if you took Santini out the race BDM might have been pushed up a pound or two with the 160 horses out of sight. |
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It is 171
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Thanks Duffy is that with a "p"
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Certainly not!!!
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