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Hibore
13 Apr 19 20:13
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Date Joined: 23 Jun 07
| Topic/replies: 2,737 | Blogger: Hibore's blog
After the joke antepost betting of last year (Percy 6/1 etc.) we have some realistic betting opportunities for us punters who like to build bets up over the year. This year I’m going for Santini.
A horse held in the highest regard by Henderson, I actually think he believes this horse could be a superstar the way he talks about him. I think he would have won the RSA if he’d had his prep race and shoe incident 5 days before the race. If he’d won by 2 lengths hypothetically I think you’d be lucky to get 6/1 now for the GC. His misfortune allows us to have 12/1 now. I’ve had the biggest antepost bet I’ve ever had and will continue to back him each month as well as the Hennessy.

Without sounding like Irishone I think he’ll be closer to 3/1 on the day if all goes well.

Of the other horses, Al boum looked good and will be a danger. I think Kemboy and Totg look speedier horses and think the King George suit them better. Lostintranslation looks more a gold cup horse and I may have a small investment on him.

Antepost bets

SANTINI 10points ew 12/1
Lost 2points ew 14/1

Any thoughts at this extremely early stage Shocked

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Replies: 293
By:
johnslad
When: 14 Apr 19 22:59
Yes post your bets to see what a point relates to, this point's lark, what's that all about and don't reply as it's how US pro's work so just post dem bets I can certainly cut and paste mine from this year's festival.
By:
irishone
When: 15 Apr 19 07:34
I would want 100\1 him getting there
By:
irishone
When: 15 Apr 19 15:34
I actually think ......I think ..... if ....If.....I think.... you’d be lucky.....I think .... danger  ..... think ....

They are the relevant words in the above, and good luck with your thoughts.

The difference is Presenting Percy info came direct from the stable.
By:
duffy
When: 15 Apr 19 16:45
Wouldn't write off PP IMO, he's no longer the "in thing" but he has lost nothing in defeat as he was injured early and therefore remains a horse we still haven't gotten to the bottom of. now though he's a far better price to find out with.
By:
GI MAC
When: 15 Apr 19 16:59
The two times I've been impressed by Santini were his novice hurdle wins at Newbury and Aintree, flat LH courses. He's ran OK at Cheltenham but I'm not convinced it's his track. I'd say the 12/1 you can get about him for the Hennassy is better value at this point in time.
By:
Hibore
When: 15 Apr 19 19:32
A thread invasion by the Percy boys.
“The difference is Presenting Percy info came direct from the stable” - LOL it was 6/1 fav after the RSA. How on earth did they pick that one out...hopefully I’ll bump in someone from Gosden’s yard who tip me Too Darn Hot for the 2000G.

If you have something constructive to add then I’m happy to respond and always like a bit of banter. If you want to pick holes in Santini that is fine, I could find some myself. It’s 12/1 not even money.

Do you think Percy will even be aimed at the race next year ?
By:
buddeliea
When: 15 Apr 19 20:12
I can see all three of the RSA horses being contenders in the top three mike chases next season.
Would not like to say which of those would be best with great confidence,but of the three I would say from what I have seen that possibly Santini looks the more Gold Cup type horse.
12’s dont appeal to me though at this stage.
By:
irishone
When: 16 Apr 19 07:24
Amazing how much bull appears about next years gold cup
When something like 95% plus on this forum totally overlooked
AL BOUM PHOTO

Its one thing guessing
Its another thing providing well researched semi-logical reasonable analytical information ......then guessing

Impossible trying to dissect owner, trainer, jockey appears a far more logical
exercise , although the understanding and misinterpretation is rife !

Cant help thinking "empty vessels most sound", apologies if this upsets but how many of you have actually  ridden, owned or trained horses ?

I suggest very few have and that the vast majority are making these "months in advance" pronouncements seeking attention and promoting derision for the sport
By:
johnslad
When: 16 Apr 19 08:57
Hiboring a 2nd post attention seeking I haven't a ****g bean on
By:
Hibore
When: 16 Apr 19 10:20
If you have nothing constructive to add to this thread can you please refrain from posting. You are both sad individuals with massive chips on your shoulders that have to belittle or mock posters who don’t agree with your opinions.

I’ve owned and ridden horses so probably more qualified than either of you.

Budd, Santini will relish the extra distance of the GC as he’s not the speediest. I’m a little concerned the Hennessy may not bring his stamina into play enough. Maybe if they ran him Denman style or Native River rather than held up he might improve ? Just a thought.
By:
cyclops
When: 16 Apr 19 10:59
hibore, your estimation of Santini seems to rely considerably on Henderson's view of him, allied to your view that the shoe incident may have affected him.

What makes you think he's got a better chance than the other main protagonists in the RSA? Particularly as Topofthegame has done him twice.

I certainly like the horse and plenty of respect that you're nailing your colours early on. Just watched the finish of the RSA again. A cracking race. He must be in the mix but, like budd, I think 12/1 is skinny, given that he's not only got to overcome Topofthegame but also the reigning champ and Kemboy.
By:
buddeliea
When: 16 Apr 19 11:32
Yep I do agree that Santini will relish the Gold Cup distance,and as I have said I think he will be more suited to that race than TOTG and DW,but having said that, as Cyclops says TOTG has done him, so its all open to question.
I am just trying to use my eyes to form a judgement,and my eyes tell me Santini will stay further than 3m comfortably,and they tell me that I aint so sure about the other two.
But these are novice chasers who will improve for experience and no certainty which of the three will prove more able in a Gold Cup.
All in all,with the winner this year being a good winner and arguably open to more improvement,and Kemboy, and his RSA rivals, I just feel that 12's is not value at this stage.
By:
Hibore
When: 16 Apr 19 11:55
I’ve always followed Santini from his first run at Newbury when he beat Chef Des Obeaux. He’s always struck me as a horse who would excel over longer distances and fences. He seems to lack that turn of foot or tactical speed over 3 miles over hurdles and sharp track chases at the highest level which was also evident over Xmas at Kempton. I doubt you’ll ever see him run there again. Soft ground around Newbury over 3 miles is just about enough of a test so I’d expect him to start in the Hennessy. I’m sure he’d go a different route to the other GC hopefuls who maybe take in the Betfair, King George and Ascot before the GC. He might not run against any of them bar Topofthegame before March.
The race conditions that give Santini the best chance of winning a Grade 1 would be a fast run race with softish conditions on a stiff tract over 3 miles plus. Therefore the Gold Cup could be the only race that gives him his best chance. I think 12/1 is more than fair and bigger odds than I expected as they last the post in the RSA.

Topofthegame is obviously a good horse but to my eye 3 miles is just as far as he wants to go. I backed him in the RSA and Cobden rode a great race. I’m not convinced he would have won if Santini had a trouble free preparation. I felt a little fortunate.
Kemboy looked good at Aintree similar than Clan looked amazing in KG and Ascot. Not many horses show that much speed and can stay the gruelling GC conditions. We will find out over the next 9 months but I’m not convinced.
Al Boum ran well and was a worthy winner. I’m not sure this year’s renewal was very good and I’d like to see him do it again before I think he should be favourite.

I think the RSA could be is the best form for this years GC. It was a much better time this year than 2018 and Santini, Top and Delta could be the value bets.
By:
johnslad
When: 16 Apr 19 11:59
Can you answer the question how much is a point,how much are you willing to tie up this far in advance all in run or not considering you are going in each month I would not consider this a wise betting strategy especially if a point relates to £100 then that's a bag ew.so is that constructive enough,so I wait in anticipation of your explanation of point value.
Myself I will add would not consider anything at the moment this far out as other's have given several opinions on many different horses if they all got to post in 2020.
Any thoughts on this extremely early stage.
I'll expect the usual nothing to add answer.
I have never owned or ridden horse's and maybe Irishone has but to get two owner's and former rider's on a thread with just 7 different posters is extremely unlikely hth's when you wake up.
By:
buddeliea
When: 16 Apr 19 12:16
Fwiw, I have been involved in ownership of horses, but I don't feel it in any way helps with my battle against the bookies at Cheltenham......have found it just as tricky now as it was before I had involvement.
By:
buddeliea
When: 16 Apr 19 12:19
This point business......correct me if I am wrong, but don't people use this because they don't like to disclose the amount of money they wager?
By:
Hibore
When: 16 Apr 19 13:09
I think it’s very crude to put up your stake. I bet over the phone with Sunderland’s and Wharton Slaney so they don’t place bets under a certain amount. That should answer your question.

You bet within your means. My stake is higher than most punters but I’m small fry compared with two punters I go to Cheltenham with who turn over £200k each over the 4 days.

I’ve ridden horses (not jockey) and owned legs of horses. I was in owners and trainers at the Hennessy meeting and Ascot meeting in Oct representing a very well known owner who had a horse in the Gold Cup this year and the horse won at Wetherby earlier in the season if you can work that out. The more you know from the stable the more you lose in my experience. Bud you are right with what you say....

So I’m not a sit at home punter if that is what you are implying.
By:
irishone
When: 16 Apr 19 14:41
Fair play to you hibore
If you owned and ride
So you will know what its like getting one ready
I was surprised henderson  hasnt sorted mit e bite
So I am lacking faith
In that direction
But good luck to you !
By:
impossible123
When: 16 Apr 19 17:25
I'd forget about PP,...injured or not during the race. I think he was already that way prior to the GC as alluded to by his owner; his form beating Monalee in the RSA was pants. Similarly, one can forget about CDO, BDM, NR, MB and AF too.

On a more serious note Lostintranslation and Santini - in this order - would be my two too for the 2020 renewal. I cannot have Topofthegame either, and neither can I have Defi De Seul no matter how he's ridden to stay the GC distance; Kemboy (impressive at Aintree beating tired horses) and Al Boum Photo ain't for me being Mullins'. Unless, Tiger Roll is redirected or retired Elliot could be a spectator for the race.

To recap: Lostintranslation and Santini for 2020, a better chance for the latter if he could show more pace otherwise a longer trip will suit even better.

I firmly believe most of us are not destined to win big in this game, unless luck is aplenty; I've had big money going onto a single horse eg Forgive 'N' Forget, Buveur D'Air, and had 3 horses running for me in this race to guarantee a big win, but no luck; Too Darn Hot could be another bismarck for me.

Nevertheless, with Tiger Roll (could not believe he was 5/4 for the X Country) - my the ever reliable equine friend - coming to the rescue in the Grand National, and despite having laid-off a chunk with several trebles and accas from 20/1 downwards, I'm cushioned for a softish landing regardless.
By:
Hibore
When: 16 Apr 19 18:38
Nice to see we are in agreement Imp. I’m quite happy with both horses odds 12/1 and 14/1.

Good luck with Too Darn Hot, I put a thread on ante post when he was. 20/1 for the Derby after his first run. But I also put up Saxon Warror at 25/1 the year before and La Ti Dah 20/1 and we all know what happened there Cry

I’m not the luckiest in those races.
By:
irishone
When: 17 Apr 19 07:06
W ith regard his defeat at cheltenham
Davy russel felt he would have won
But held his hands up in paddock
"My mistake" to be fair
...and the horse travelled bad
So the form of that rsa
Might not hold up
By:
cyclops
When: 18 Apr 19 07:27
hibore, I may be nitpicking but am trying to understand your logic.

You say that Santini's best, and perhaps only, chance of ideal conditions will come when he runs in a Gold Cup on, hopefully, soft ground.

So why are you backing him now, given that, by your line of argument, he's unlikely to do anything in the run-up to the race which will properly advertise his chances?

What is he likely to do that will ensure that 12/1 a year in advance is a value bet?
By:
Hibore
When: 18 Apr 19 18:32
That is a fair point cyclops.

I’m not backing necessarily to nick a price. I want to win a certain amount so backing over 10 months allows you to have smaller bets that lead to a really nice payout. I did this with Native River at 16/1 two years ago.

I’m more than happy with 12/1 and but those odds can reduce at any time....

I’ve also had a hefty bet on Altior at 6/1 for the King George which for no reason (no additional runs by the horse) is now 4/1.
Odds can drop on the strength of a tipster or comments by the trainer.
By:
cyclops
When: 19 Apr 19 09:38
Well, the very best of luck to you.

I had a similar journey with Don Cossack three years ago (having followed him since his first bumper win) and there's no feeling like it when it works out.

Certainly, Santini can't be ruled out and I hope he gives you a great ride.
By:
irishone
When: 20 Apr 19 08:48
Excellent response cyclops Wink
By:
impossible123
When: 21 Apr 19 19:27
I think Altior for the KG similarly CDO, Lostintranslation and Topofthegame would be astute bets; the Irish horses would probably remain in their boxes; Santini is unlikely, and the old warriors eg BDM, AF, NR, etc, are back-numbers to me now - The Grand National beckons for NR and BDM next year. My book is full for the Epsom Derby(no TDH though) and Oaks similarly, this race but room for one more post KG, Haydock and/or Newbury.

Don Cossack was brilliant boosted by his fall in the KG - 12/1 post with 'auntie'; laid off stake money at 5/2 and 2/1 before final decs. But, No More Heroes (his intended replacement here) was sad, and brutal eg RSA and Gold Cup double, and others.
By:
irishone
When: 21 Apr 19 19:53
.....uncouth aftertiming impossible !
By:
charlieptl
When: 15 Sep 19 19:06
All over Santini for the Ladbrokes Trophy but not for Gold Cup. He is far too lazy in his races and that, coupled with 3m2f at Cheltenham will find him out.
By:
sabolah1
When: 23 Sep 19 19:21
Is Santini going to turn up for the Ladbrokes? Henderson’s comments from the owner day didn’t seem that positive. I hope he does as I have backed him but was hoping for a more positive mention that he is being aimed at the race.
By:
Hibore
When: 24 Sep 19 18:46
Sabo what did Henderson say regarding Santini and his early season targets ? I would have thought Hennessy was most likely...can’t think why you wouldn’t.
By:
sabolah1
When: 24 Sep 19 19:13
He said he likes to send his second season chasers to the Hennessy as was and then named OK Corral and Brave Eagle as on target for the race. Santini not named as going for race, and highlighted the Future Stars rave at Sandown as only target in early November, same race he sent Might Bite to two years ago. Normally that race is good stepping stone for Newbury. Not ruled in or out, so seems a wait and see policy at moment from stable and owners.
By:
Hibore
When: 24 Sep 19 21:27
Thanks for the info. I suppose the ground will make up his mind.
By:
foxy
When: 22 Oct 19 15:02
Suggested no Newbury for santini Sandown the target ,likes the easy option does Nicky
By:
foxy
When: 22 Oct 19 15:03
Sorry that’s today he suggested that plan.
By:
Hibore
When: 23 Oct 19 19:42
Same route as Might Bite then. Thanks for the info...
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 02 Nov 19 11:16
may be well wide of the mark and may have just thrown my dough down the drain but its only small change needed at the price so went for it ,have backed santini for the king george at 110 on here . ok he may not be best suited going right handed based on his feltham run and the stable have altior a short priced fav and mite bite . but we dont know if altior will get the trip and mite bite after his epic duel  with native river hasnt looked the same horse since . prob wont line up but thats the chance ya take and if he were to make the gig he will be a much shorter price esp if winning on his return.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 02 Nov 19 11:23
also the race will cut up ,no topofthegame and the irish are often  thin on the ground in this race mullins in particular .^
By:
Hibore
When: 03 Nov 19 08:35
If Kempton is heavy then you may have a chance he’ll turn up. I think if he runs over Xmas then they may go to Ireland.
We are ahead of the game in regards nicking a few points on both horses before the season starts. Both 10/1 at this stage.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 03 Nov 19 09:01
yes hibore ,things can change i.e if altior flops or looks as tho he may not get 3m on his next run at ascot 2.4 miles then connections of santini may think its worth having a pop , i put  silviniarco conte up for the king george years back after he had run 3rd in the feltham but nicholls said he wasnt suited for kempton ..........so he missed the race ,only to rock up the next year . in all probability santini wont line up but at 110 plus you only need a few quid on .
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