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She'd more of a race today than the canter against one other runner rated much inferior to her. Was she impressive today? A comfortable win over 20f, impressive she was not (personally). The Champion Hurdle is over 16f, and 4/1 is mind-boggling, I believe.
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Dropping back in trip is not a negative per se, she clearly wants to go faster and is a strong galloper and put the race to bed today when asked to, just before turning in they looked to be stacking up behind her and shortly into the straight she was clear.
It's true that over the longer trip going slower she climbs occasionally, but that be because she's a big powerful mare and finds it more awkward at that pace it doesn't necessarily follow that she will then falter over shorter going faster, it could help her become more fluent, all of the front 3 want a strong end to end gallop so there will be no excuses, whether the conditions are indeed able to help Laurina's jumping is the key point to her winning IMO, but it's a big question. One thing is certain if AJ wins she'd be perhaps more deserving than the other two as she's the one with the target on her back and although she'll be running the race she wants, in so doing will also be providing the scenario that the other two want as well. |
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Yep, personally having Apple's Jade is a double-edged sword ie another protagonist for BD, but the flipside is a decent pace more likely which will suit BD well. Also, I believe 2m is sufficiently short for BD - 2m 2f/3f more his cup-of-tea.
On the other hand AJ and Laurina (L) need at least 2m 4f to show their best. It's more straight forward to read the form of AJ over 2m (form aplenty) whereas Laurina could have the potential for an upset to BD being crowned 3x Champion Hurdle winner if she takes to 2m just as well as the longer trip I envisage to be her optimum. |
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Imposs:
On the other hand AJ and Laurina (L) need at least 2m 4f to show their best. Yer make it sound as tho Apples struggled over 2miles. When she absolutely bolted up against GD 1 opponents. |
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GD 1 opponents? Supasundae (S), Petit Mouchoir (PM), Melon (M), Farclas (F) and Tombstone (T)?
M is not in-love with the game. S won when Samcro and M fell last season. PM been off for 247 days. F a shadow of his own-self since the Triumph victory. T described by Elliot as left-behind by Samcro at home. I understand the winning margin was impressive nevertheless, I do not take it as gospel similar to Bristol De Mai's victory in the Betfair Chase. |
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Don't forget Charlie Parcs is declared to run in the champion again, to spoil and pester any front runners
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Hard to understand why anyone would want to dismiss Laurina.
She was a little high at a couple of hurdles but other than that she did little wrong. I suspect the faster they go the better she will jump. The quicker ground didn't seem a worry. I think Apple's Jade will just set the race up for her and she is the one to beat. |
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I dont think we can dismiss her, we have no idea how good she is!!
At the same time I can fully understand people not backing her,we have no idea if shes good enough!! |
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Their is no form at all to suggest shes the one to beat,but form to suggest BD is,and also form to suggest AJ is.
And for that matter Verdana Blue!! It was guesswork at the start of the season with her, and really still is. Guesses do come off though, but what price is one willing to take? |
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As regards having the form to win Buveur D'Air fell over the line last year and you could argue as to what he has achieved since then. Kempton confirmed that he was far from unbeatable and it also cast doubt over his jumping. Apple's Jade had the run of things last time and ran away from what is essentially a slow two miler. Is that good enough? I don't think those two are going to improve much, if at all, and I would sooner row in with the (much) greater potential that Laurina brings to the table.
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Yep potential, of course,but not CH form.
That's yer choice. And you obviously have no issues with the prices been available. If you think BD true form was last years race and Kempton,fair enough. I think hes better than that,and has proved it in other races. AJ proved a real threat now. Its a fascinating race, and I CAN see why differing opinions are being banded about. Great for the race, and cannot wait to find out which way of looking at the respective chances of the bookies main three,proves correct!! |
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I can't take a short price on horse to win a Champion Hurdle who has never faced a 150 rated opponent.
As budd says, she can't be dismissed as she's never come off the bridle but she'll be facing something so different from what she's faced before that the price looks very cramped to me. AJ had been running away from seasoned graded performers whereas yesterday Laurina ran away from modest horses. As mentioned before, this is a really strange prep for a Champion Hurdle and my feeling is that connections may regret not having campaigned her in better company to establish how good she is. The Mares is still there for the taking and I wonder if Ruby still might have a word in their ears sometime before the Festival. I remember Rhinestone Cowboy starting favourite (or very nearly) for a Champion on the back of equally facile wins against trees and he couldn't even go the pace to the first and turned out to be a confirmed stayer. Not saying the same will happen to Laurina but I can't have her on my mind at the current price. |
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I don't think Walsh has ever suggested the Mares. It seems to me he is fully committed and is a part of the reason she is going Champion Hurdle. They still have some reasonable class hurdlers so for me that is an endorsement to her chances.
I find it strange that Gigginstown were all over Samcro running in the Champion Hurdle but seemed to take some persuasion that Apple's Jade should go that route. Owners get it wrong but they must have concerns as to whether they think she is good enough. Yes, she probably looks better this season but she only has that one bit of two mile form and you can pick holes in it. |
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Be interesting to see which one Ruby picks.
Sharjah got some nice 2m form this season, unlike Laurina. That could tell you something!! |
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The presence of Laurina is an irritant, but I cannot back her for granny's money, and Walsh will ride; AJ unless has acquired the lungs of Frankel this season I'd still judge her on juvenile form. And BD on his run against VB would not be good enough, but he did dispose of Samcro coming from behind until the last easily, and both horses were well clear of the rest.
I'm not overly worried about the merits of BD retaining his crown - the way he's ridden and where he'll challenge the pacesetter or main protagonists eg last hurdle or just after are my main concerns. |
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That little jink out to the right is still there with AJ too which can't help going quick on the day either, that could become exaggerated, if Charlie does run they should race him up er inner and try to get her going out ...for as long as he can keep up that is.
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A little jink to the right but it looks like that's how she's comfortable and as it helps her to hurdle quickly it doesn't bother me. If it gets exaggerated then it will be an issue.
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Imp
You should get your wish,i just cannot see BD getting past AJ before the last. If he wins it will be up the hill imo. But shes going to be tough to pass anywhere. Would not surprise me if she led all the way. Would not surprise me if he collared her late on. |
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^
an epic battle for 2nd place ![]() |
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bD thewinner ..love the price
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'buddelia', I hope so - where he is is vital to his retaining the crown. Also, I think BD is best between a stiff 2m - 2m 2f, and he can quicken; AJ 2m 4f plus similarly, Laurina (unroven though) - these two are more gallopers to me, I believe.
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Why is she still declared for the Mares Hurdle? Her target is the Champion Hurdle as we're led to believe; either she goes there or she does not. If sound, she does, yes?; if she's not, she'll not run, agree? And/or, could the well-being of Benie Des Dieux (BDD) have a bearing on her eventual participation in the Champion Hurdle too eg the scratching of BDD?
This is so similar to that of Douvan when he was also entered for the Arkle, JLT and Champion Chase . |
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hills been 6/1 all day £25 max
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Wins by half the track
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Thats a long way against 2 proven performers @ the highest level.
based on what other than promise? beat nowt cant jump as efficiently as the front 2 fortunately looks like she will get the soft ground to give of her best but needs to pull another 10lb plus out the bag |
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AJ is probably 10lbs worse horse at Cheltenham than anywhere else to be fair, can't have her jinking right at every flight myself, she's going to have to do it the hard way too from the front with the other two stalking her, couldn't have her and BD looked about a stone worse last time and is potentially running in the best CH he's had to face.
Laurina is all about potential, but just because she hasn't it doesn't mean she can't, BD scrambled home against Melon last year and their are more encouraging noises about him recently and Sharjah has been really very good this year but the thought of Walsh getting off of the Mare to ride one of those couldn't be further away, she must be making them look really slow at home. I "hope" that the star quality that she appears to have comes to pass on the day. |
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Not long now till we find out if shes the new Pegasus!!
One thing for certain imo,cant be too confident of a selection with the unknown surrounding her. |
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I don't think I'll bother having a bet in the race for that reason, budd.
I do, though, give some credence to the notion that Buveur D'Air was n't at his best last year (Henderson's theory presumably being that he was incubating the virus that his next door neighbour We Have A Dream had picked up). One of the primary reason's Elliott stated for sending Samcro down the Champion Hurdle route was Mick Jazz's proximity to the principles in last year's Champion Hurdle and the fact that MJ would n't live with Samcro at home - but what if Mick Jazz was flattered? On the other hand, Buveur D'Air looked irresistible at Newcastle but it later transpired that he'd beaten one horse possibly incubating a lung infection and another with a broken leg. And he should n't really have been getting beaten by Verdana Bleu at Kempton even if the track and ground did n't play to his strengths. My hunch is for Laurina - not least because the Mullins camp have a couple of fantastic former mares to benchmark her against and,of course, she gets 7lbs so does n't even need to be the best horse in the race to win (I appreciate the same applies to Apples Jade) - but I really don't like betting in a race where some of the key form lines are so dubious. |
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Notwithstanding the pros and cons I think BD is outstanding value at 5/2 for a 2x reigning champion compared to the two mares.
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yes you said
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If Presenting Percy is a silly price for the Gold Cup 4.3 for Laurina is an absurd price for a mare that's never run against her opposite sex and Grade 1 opposition. If she wins today she'll be odds-on next year, I firmly believe. But I do not think she will.
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Strong in the market, now 3/1 general. If she wins it might affect the price of Stormy Ireland in the Mares.
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Oh well, bubble well and truly busted.
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yep
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I was there today to see it all in the flesh, it's amazing really that you really don't see the races properly and get the feel for whats gone on, I'm only just watching the replays now, but it looked to me that Laurina couldn't jump but with everything falling away looked like the winner but fell in one almighty hole.
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She traded well odds-on post the fall of BD and with AJ scrubbed along, and going well 2 out. Could the early pace (she was sitting just behind in 3rd/4th), and possibly searching too dented her usual style of running? She did seem to fall away quite tamely despite going the best remaining 2 out. It was disappointing she found nothing when her stamina (expected) to come into play at the business end. Or could she just travel well throughout (it seems) and find little when asked?
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Funny, i did not think she travelled that well, and walsh seemed to intimate that as well.
certainly not as well as the winner!! |
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where they go with her from here will be interesting
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Back to the mares race next year.
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RSA ?,4 Miler??
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