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Shame he chose The Galmoy rather than the Irish Gold Cup. Hopefully the Red Mills against a decent field of chasers next.
The campaign of Native River this season was guided by that £1m bonus; he ought never to have run in the Betfair on good ground similarly the King George where the track and distance were too sharp for him. But no worries, come the Festival given fair ground to all Native River could easily atone for these two early season defeats. |
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Impressive today but continues to be a terrible price for the Gold Cup. He was already too short before he was cut.
The Gold Cup will represent his first real test outside of novice company. Yes, Coneygree won as a novice but he had a totally different running style. Not too many Gold Cup winners cruise through the field. |
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can't think off hand of a GC winner that
ran over hurdles prior to winning? |
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What price should he be then?? anyone??
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I'm not laying it Duffy but maybe between 4-5/1? Why? because it is possible the GC could be run on the fast side of good,he'll handle it but not his optimum.
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Native River 4/1
Clan Des Obeaux 6/1 Presenting Percy 7/1 Might Bite 8/1 Thistlecrack 10/1 Kemboy 10/1 Road to Respect 14/1 These would be my odds if I didn't know the current market. |
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Laurina and Percy are the two horse trading half their odds and some.... due to reputation at home rather than substance of form.
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Hibore,
You won't be seeing much business laying CDO and MB. ![]() |
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Penzance why is it a funny old prep .... won the rsa on the back of the same prep. Not being funny but you lads are totally biased with your anti irish claptrap.... you keep guessing and mocking when the truth is put in front of you. Try and keep an open mind when it comes to horses. Optimum distances and ratings are easy to mock as well you know, your adherance to them is misplaced imvho
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If you just came back from the moon and watched recordings of the King George and the G Hurdle today (and I'll let you have the Sun Alliance as well). Then looked at the horses beaten, race times and handicap ratings on what they achieved.
Are the odds reflective of the horses chances? The odds were wrong last year as I was lucky to point out (Native was 16/1 at this time) so plenty of time to grab the value around ! |
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Good grief,Irishone accusing the brits of bias.....takes the biscuit that one!!.
Most of your posts are all about how great the Irish are. Think you need to heed your own advice mate when it comes to keeping an open mind. As for optimum distances,we have had that debate and I dont really want to go over all that again. What I will say though,ever since that debate was had,there have been a fair few posts on this thread and the Ryanair thread with plenty of mentions re horses staying,not staying etc etc, Don't wish to upset our friends over the water,not at all, but imo you need to post without an apparent chip on yer shoulders!!! |
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Hi Irish, well done today.
![]() The dream is still on ! |
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Duffy
I would price the horse based on what I have seen on the track and potential improvement,which is needed on evidence we gave seen.....8/1 I think would be realistic. |
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not knocking anybody and don't give a toss if
the winner's English or Irish.Saying it as I see it. In fact one my favourite horses was Irish,Florida Pearl. |
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Why should anyone care whether the winner is Irish or British?
We watch the horses in both countries and form an opinion. I happen to think PP is badly priced, makes no difference where he is trained. |
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I'm quite happy to accept a horse's price solely on what I think the horse's potential is, I don't necessarily have to see the horse win a grade 1 in open company first before I back it if I think he's capable of it anyway.
I think PP's price is right, I think he'll win, I haven't backed him yet but will happily do so on the day at 3's if that's what he is, incidentally I'd have Al Boum Photo, behind NR but in front of CDO and Kemboy in the market, although a shorter trip that Savell's chase win got a couple of nice boosts today, he looks like a horse that is beginning to get it all together and could be anything, he has all the potential and I give that more weight than what Kemboy and CDO have achieved and what they look to me to be capable of. |
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3/1 is extremely short unless one is connected, I believe.
Don Cossack who'd a string of credentials eg victories in the Melling, Gold Cup and JRwine, and including starting 15/8 fav against Vautour (yes, Vautour) in the King George but fell 2 out when challenging only started 9/4 against Djakadam and company. On the other hand Presenting Percy only beat Monalee (not won since) in the RSA, and now beat mainly non-stayers over hurdles eg Limini and Bapaume (40/1 and 25/1 respectively in the Stayers) and who were trounced by Apple's Jade in their races. |
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On the day maybe but any horse is evens to be fit and healthy in 2 months time! He could easily pull out lame tomorrow.
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Fair enough Duffy that's of course entirely up to you,and I also have no problem with backing a horse solely on what I think his potential is.
For me in that scenario though,it has to be all about the price compared to my feelings. And for me it would be about me trying to get a value price. To take the sort of prices PP has been all season I would want more than possible potential. |
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Budd
i think you would be run over at 8/1 with a steam roller and then when the driver turns round, run over again |
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sage
That's a different argument to what the others arguing about the price are saying though, they'd have him 7/8/1 if the race was next week. imp, forget about the ins and outs of this piece of form and that piece of form, today had nothing to do with that nothing whatsoever (did he need to win by half the track?) today was to see him on the track and compete and travel and move through the race with that style and ease, he did all that for me, he's highly classy . Stop looking at everything through the prism of strict weights and measures, none of that mattered today. Apples Jade smashing Bapaume means nothing to PP today, kv once upon a time having years off the track has no relevance to PP today. Limini being once a CH contender had nothing to do with what PP did today. |
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![]() Thats probably why I aint a bookie Harry!! |
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Still think my price is more realistic though.
Hes won an RSA......that's it!! The rest is hype and hope that a good horse is in fact a great horse. 3/1 is pathetic. |
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the horse is a short price but no doubting he is a top class horse imo... and no i haven't had a bet in the race yet, i do however like him as an individual and respect him in the race
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Well if you think hes top class, then you have to think the race he won(RSA)was top class.
Otherwise its a complete guess. No other form that could be considered top class. For me from what I have seen of him,I think theres plenty of doubt. |
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what did you think to his handicap run off 145 on his 3rd run over fences budd??
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A more realistic price for PP would be about 7/1 or 8/1 given at best given known form and prep. He's no value at 3/1, and would be surprised if any shorter than present even if there was an avalanche of Irish euros with the ground another factor; shorter than NR and CDO for winning a mediocre RSA, I just cannot have.
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Well done hibore for putting your show in right or wrong good approach people have
Lost there opinion since the exchanges have come along |
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By the way if you manage to lay any 8/1 might bite feel free to have some 9/1 back with me
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i am sure that if anyone wants to lay Percy at 6s or bigger you would be accomadated very quickly, and could be very rich or bankrupt equally quick i think the lack of in form opposition is the main reason he keeps shortening.
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The irony is that the horse is british.
Picking holes on his form Picking holes in the preparation Picking holes in the trainer and those in the know Why ? The horse is a dual cheltenham winner Obviously the trainer knows what hes at You carrying on laying him lads You carrying on opposing him I trust davy russells opinion more |
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building up to be a fascinating race with a lot of varied opinions, me i am off to bed to dream of a grey flying up the hill in front.
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i am so looking forward to seeing an Irish 1-2-3 in the Gold Cup. Doesn't matter which three Irish horses. That will be so satisfying.
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Harry
That was a good performance,as was his RSA. And his form puts him in as a Gold Cup contender,but his form does not make him the price he is now and has been all season. I have never said he wont win,although I do think NR will win again,i know its possible PP or indeed another may prove to be the best in March. The price coupled with form has been my reasoning. |
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Shlotter
Why would that be so satisfying? |
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The irony is that the horse is british.- Makes no difference to me
Picking holes on his form - Because it aint Gold Cup favourite form Picking holes in the preparation - No concerns on the prep, they should know whats best for him. Picking holes in the trainer and those in the know - Not done that Why ? The horse is a dual cheltenham winner - Yes, and gets respect for that Obviously the trainer knows what hes at - Yes You carrying on laying him lads - Aint laying him You carrying on opposing him -Just think NR will win, and others have better form. I trust davy russells opinion more - Up to you of course.....I trust form more |
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It certainly made sense for him to shorten as up until yesterday nobody could be sure he would even run this season! Going from 7/1 to 5/1 would have made perfect sense but 4 to 3 is a bit over the top. I am still not entirely clear about his going preference. If it was fastish good ground on GC day, would he still run? I might even be tempted by 3/1 with a run guaranteed. My only GC bet so far is a small one on Native River at 9. The best guide to the top Cheltenham races is usually last years form.
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get the impression that presenting percy is mentally stronger than a lot of the other horses, which is ideal for the gold cup.
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Sageform you were told the plan in this thread in june last year !
He is a good ground horse You wont get firm at cheltenham He wasnt at his best yesterday either Davy looked after him Lets see what willie puts in the red mills now |
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buddeliea
25 Jan 19 07:12 The horse is a dual cheltenham winner - Yes, and gets respect for that ACTUALLY NO HE DOESNT ..... buddeliea 24 Jan 19 18:07 Hes won an RSA......that's it!! |