Cheltenham Festival
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Queen Mother 2018
Queen Mother 2018
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I'd be amazed if Min wasn't in the Champion Chase and UDS in the Ryanair. As they split them all up that only leaves Gold Cup or Champion Hurdle for Yorkhill imo.
Kind of sums it up what I am saying in a Way Chief We are in January and a horse could run in either the 3m2f Gold Cup Chase, or the 2m Champion Hurdle !!! |
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Yeah fair points re Annie Power, she was never a 3 miler in the first place.
At this moment in time I don't think Yorkhill is personally but wouldn't rule it out next year. I agree as well that chopping and changing distances cannot be good, especially as you say, from 3m to 2m. Even Annie dropped back gradually, running in middle distances races largely before she dropped back to 2m for the Champion Hurdle. I'd personally come back to 2.5m next time with Yorkhill, maybe in something like the Red Mills in Feb, where I think they'd learn a lot. If they definitely want to stay chasing, it might tell them a lot. If he's pulling the jockeys arms off then drop him back for the QMCC or if he shapes like a stayer then Gold Cup. If not sure, Ryanair is the most sensible option. Seems strange that half way through his third season it appears they still don't know his ideal distance. |
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i may be wrong but didnt broomhead step sizing euro up from 2m to 3m for a few races and when it appered he dint stay dropped him back to 2m and won the champion ,bit different to yorkhill but it dont blunt their speed imo !
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I would still see Yorkhill's likely target being the Gold Cup. I think the Mullins camp are as confused as the rest of us as regards his optimum distance and where he runs will probably depend on whether or not they can get Douvan back (unlikely), or whether they think Min is a genuine Champion Chase contender. The return of Altior might also help make their mind up. Also besides Djakadam, they don't really have a serious Gold Cup contender and even then is he really a contender? Also the influence of Ruby will be crucial in deciding his target and it's interesting both pre and post the JLT, he was adamant he was a Gold Cup horse. Also there are other reasons beside the trip for his sub-par performance at Leopardstown: 1) Doesn't like the place - struggled there on his only other run, 2) Prefers better ground - two Festival wins have come on good ground, 3) Big ask on his first run of the season.
I also think the only way Un De Sceaux runs in the Champion Chase is if it's very soft ground which is unlikely. If he couldn't win it at 8 years of age, then I can't see him winning it at 10. I can however see him repeating his Ryanair victory of last year. I also think Fox Norton needs further than two miles by the way - he won at Punchestown in spite of it. If the two of them make it to the Ryanair, it would be an intriguing race. |
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Good shout Foyles, forgot Sizing went that route. Slightly different in that he was a proven top 2 miler chaser and tread water at the end of 3 mile chases, but nevertheless it does show they can drop back.
Agree SYT re Fox Norton, his best performance I've seen was Aintree over 2.5m and I suppose if he couldn't beat Special Tiara in the QMCC last time...but I do think the Queen Mum appears to be a lot less competitive than the Ryanair to me, so I'm thinking more of the opposition than his actual optimum trip. I still think he has one more big 2m race in him. Yeah, re Yorkhill the more I think of it, there are lots of reasons why he didn't win the other day. Could still well line up in the Gold Cup, but I would still drop him back to 2.5m next time, get him in his comfort zone and get a win under his belt and decide from there. ...there is always the thought that he may just not be as good as we thought he would be when he looked a superstar novice hurdler...that's why I put before that he isn't anywhere near Vautour class when they were both at this stage of their respective careers. |
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One Man would be the best example of a horse who stepped back from 3m+ to win the 1998 Champion Chase.
His only other run at the minimum distance was his 1992 debut novice hurdle at Hexham (where he finished 8th)!! He tried the Gold Cup twice (hot favourite the first time) and was also favourite for an RSA but patentely didn't stay at Cheltenham, despite having hacked up in a Reynoldstown, a Hennessey and two King Geroges I always wanted Mullins to run Florida Pearl in the QM - like most of the idiot trainers he never listens to me though.  |
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MWDS won the stayers before winning an Arkle.
One thing that is missing that may help decide Yorkhill's target is a 2 mile chase run, give him a run in one next time and if he impresses then it's sorted. I personally wouldn't worry about a horse getting messed about regards trip, it's all racing isn't it, I wouldn't have thought it does anything to it physically or bleeds any of it's speed away either. In Yorkhill's case I'd imagine it would come as a relief.  |
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Good points lads and some fair old examples of horses coming back in trip from 3 to 2 and having success......One Man bless him!!
wellchief.....Agree SYT re Fox Norton, his best performance I've seen was Aintree over 2.5m and I suppose if he couldn't beat Special Tiara in the QMCC last time...but I do think the Queen Mum appears to be a lot less competitive than the Ryanair to me, so I'm thinking more of the opposition than his actual optimum trip. I still think he has one more big 2m race in him. Think thats a really good point re how competitive the races are this year. SYT says that UDS could not win the QM at 8 so cannot see him winning at 10,and its a fair point,but it does depend on what opposition he faces. Like Chief says,the Ryanair could well be more competitive. Looking at the QM,i can only see Altior as a possible one to avoid,and as i have said before,for me he has it all to prove. HE werent that impressive in the Arkle and has had setbacks. |
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This will run and run all the way to the festival i imagine, but good to have a reasoned discussion going on.
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SYT says that UDS could not win the QM at 8 so cannot see him winning at 10,and its a fair point,but it does depend on what opposition he faces.
Meant to add there,that imo he would have won it age 9,had he ran in the race,given his form with Special Tiara. |
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A trainer will work the horses the same way regardless of what trip they run over.Most days this is miles of slow cantering.They may only gallop every 5 or 6 days and usually only for a mile or so and won't come off the bridle or go flat out. Yet they only tend to run 5 or 6 times per season so a step up in trip most certainly doesn't blunt their speed as they are running further than these distances most days at home at half speed.
Kauto Star won the 1m bonus(betfair chase,king george and gold cup). In between these he dropped back in trip and slaughtered them in the Tingle Creek. Dawn Run won the Gold Cup and 6 weeks later beat the QM winner at levels over 2 miles.One Man won a QM after winning 2 King Georges. Can anybody tell what their optimum trips were? IMO it didn't matter. National Hunt horses don't have just one trip.They are stayers, not sprinters. It takes a stayer to get 2 miles and the majority will stay 3 miles and more provided they drop the bit and settle in their races.The best horses have the ability to find an extra gear at the end of a race and this usually applies whether they go up or down in trip. Using examples of the Cheltenham novice races, I can give endless examples of horses who showed subsequently how versatile they were trip-wise. Istabraq,Dawn Run,Hardy Eustace,Rock On Ruby,Faugheen all won champion Hurdles via the Neptune route and I'd have no doubt they could all have been Stayers Hurdle horses had they gone that route.Best Mate, War Of Attrition,Kicking King all won Gold Cups via the Supreme route. Yorkhill comfortably beat the festival banker(who started fav for the 2017 Champion Hurdle) in the 2016 Neptune.There's no doubt in my mind that he's quick enough for 2 miles and has the stamina for at least 3 miles. . |
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Kauto Star optimum imo was 2 and a halfm,i saw him at Ascot over that distance,probably the best chase performance i have ever seen from any horse over any distance.
One Man,3m flat track. Dawn Run 2m hurdling. Most NH horses will stay 3 miles i agree,but some will stay that distance better,and some will be struggling more at the end. eg More of That beating Annie Power,had that race been 2 or 2 and a half,no doubt in my mind AP would have won easily. Sooner a trainer finds the best trip for a horse,one that he/she is comfortable with and most successful with,the better imo. |
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Mullins has been reported to say there is a chance Douvan could make the Festival in March, but it is a long shot.
On Dec 17th, Mullins was reported to say Douvan would miss the entire season. And just yesterday Yorkhill was backed off the board for this race after a text received from the owner of the latter by a racing journo. What next? Immaculate Conception? Spin! Spin! Spin! No doubt for the benefit of the bookies (again). |
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Budd,its a matter of opinion. I saw Dawn Run and Kauto Star deliver some serious performances at various distances and all I can say is on their best days they would have been pretty much unbeateable whatever the trip.
But we have a tendancy to pigeon-hole these horses into distance categories.Personally I don't believe there is such a thing as a real 2 and a half miler, its just an extra,relatively new, slightly easier type of race where its more likely you can dodge the very best horses. |
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"staying" is a relative term, I'd stay the marathon trip if you gave me long enough.
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Of course its a matter of opinion..
You named 3 horses that proved to be versatile,and yes we have had more that are versatile in distance. But we have also had many that are better at 2m,and horses that are better at 3m. And also horses that, because not quiet quick enough to beat the best at 2m, and horses not staying well enough to beat the best at 3m,have had much success at in between. Yes,thats largely due to the very best being aimed at the more prestigious and valuable races,which are either 2m or 3m races,but its also because two and a half simply suits them best. Personally i like the inbetween distance,i like the combination of speed and stamina it brings, and to be honest i wish their were more races like the Ryanair around. And Duffy is correct,even i with my gimpy back would stay the marathon......eventually!! |
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I named 11 (not 3) horses above and I could give you a list as long as my arm. I don't have any problem at all with intermediate distances and I'm not saying every horse stays extreme distances but 99% of NH racing is between 2 and 3 miles and most horses are versatile in that regard.The very best choose their own distances and rarely need to venture outside of that while the others plan an alternative route around them. That's how it works and it works particularly well for the biggest owners and trainers with several top class horses.
Trying to pinpoint a horse's optimum trip is, more often than not, a pointless exercise and can change from race to race. Identifying their best chance of winning is a different matter entirely. Take Nichols Canyon, a multiple grade 1 winner (7 grade 1s I think) from 2 to 3 miles,stepping up in trip to win the Stayer's hurdle having been placed in the Champion hurdle the previous year. This didn't prove to that he was a pure 3 miler all along, but that the 3 mile division last year was a slightly lower standard than the 2 mile and he was a similarly good horse at both. Had it not been for More Of That,who at that time looked a real superstar,Annie Power would have won a Stayers hurdle easily by 5 lengths and nobody would dispute that she stayed 3 miles comfortably. She did stay - she pulled right away from some thorough stayers.People read far too much into victories and defeats as a black or white definition of what their best trip is. |
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Annie Power was a class apart from MOT,no doubt about that for me.
Reason she did not win was because she did not stay well enough,if she stayed 3m well she would have p1ssed up. Really the point i am making. She was better at 2 and 2 and a halfm then she was at 3m. Had it not been for the Mares race and stable politics,imo injury free she would have won 3 or more Champion Hurdles.Thats how good she was imo. Apologies for not taking note of the other horses you mentioned by the way. As i said before we have indeed had more that are versatile in distance. Re the optimum and best chance of winning point you make......i regard the optimum as a horses favourite distance and therefore where his best chance of winning lies. You can say what you like,of course you can,i just dont agree with some of it. |
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No problem at all, we have many different opinions. That's allowed.
Re the optimum and best chance of winning point you make......i regard the optimum as a horses favourite distance and therefore where his best chance of winning lies. May I use one example.Sizing Europe's favourite distance(I presume it was his favourite!) was 2 miles. For some time late in his career he kept running into, and seeing the back of, Sprinter Sacre. His best chance of winning would have been to avoid SS and run in the Ryanair. That wouldn't have meant he was better at 2 and a half than 2, but it would have given him a better chance of winning. Annie eventually proved to be much better than MOT who subsequently had some serious health issues, but on the day of that race MOT was by far the best, and yes she did stay. Annie would have won 3 or more Champion Hurdles???? What about UDS? Wasn't he the best 2 mile hurdler you've ever seen?Would she have beaten UDS? Were either of them better than the Fly or Faugheen?Some people believe Vautour and Douvan should have been running in those Champion Hurdles as well. Mullins managed a 1,2,3 without them all and Annie didn't negotiate the final hurdle in the Mares! |
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Ha ha i did say stable politics!
In hindsight i think Annie Power would have won the two Champion Hurdles when she ran in the Mares,well providing she jumped the last!! UDS i always said i wanted to run in the Champion Hurdle,thought he deserved the chance but i aint sure i said he was the best i had ever seen!! i may well have said one of the most exciting though. Absolutey agree FTV,re Sizing Europe,a lot of horses would avoid a monster like SS to get connections a better chance of winning,of course that happens often,i dont dispute that. What i am saying is that all things being equal,horses ability and class, a horse will have more chance of victory at a distance he/she is most comfortable with to enable that horse to produce his/hers best.That i think is the Optimum definition. Re More of Than and Annie Power......question for you - That season they raced in the Stayers,What do you think the results would have been had they had three races that season,one at 2m,one at 2m4f and, well we know the result at 3m. re |
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To elaborate slightly on my sentence, is that staying is relative to the opposition, it's not simply a case of yes it stays "per se".
A horse only stays in relation to the opposition, and the degree to which it does stay is related to the horses it's racing against. To the Annie Power example, yes she stayed 3 miles, but I'd argue that MOT outstayed or stayed better than her. Today a horse will be beat 30 lengths in the Welsh National but it would have probably "stayed" |
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There was a delay to Annie Powers Stayers race, it was quite warm beforehand and she got quite warm and worked up. This imo is the only reason she was beaten that day and subsequent results would back that up.
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Arkle
All her races after that were between 2 and 2 and a halfm,she would have won them all but for falling at the last at Cheltenham. How does that back up the reason you give for getting beat in the Stayers? |
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Bud I'm referring more to MOT's form as much as anything else. If you compare the lifetime form of both horses it would appear that AP did not run up to her best that day and her overall form was way superior to MOT's - when the history books are written there wont be much said about MOT. Its possible she did not stay but I'm convinced that she lost her chance during the preliminaries
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Ok mate
Well you may be right,and if you are it would not do my example much good. Anyway,aside from my speculative bets on UDS,i am pretty clueless as to what to do with this race right now. Pretty sure i will be punting very near the day,or the day itself,unless i see anything that suits me NRNB. |
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It sure looks like a season to sit on the hands for as long as possible - not just the CC
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30 Entered for the 2018 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) of £400,000.00 including MIN 5/1
 Altior (6/4) Politologue (4) Min (5) Douvan (8) Yorkhill (8) Fox Norton (9) Un De Sceaux (12) Great Field (16) Special Tiara (20) |
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I decided that 5 NRNB about Douvan was too big.
Surely they wouldn't risk him unless they were absolutely sure he was ok, in which case the other Mullins hotpots don't run in this leaving Altior as the main danger and he's in the same boat as Douvan. Definitely would not go off at 5 on the day. |
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annie jumped the shadow of the fence .... end of
every horse has an optimum distance variables involved are time, age, going, month et. etc provided the measure is consistent and calibrated ...... is the trainer capable of measuring ? plenty available stating "wait and see" aka "dont know" |
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Interesting that Top Notch is among entries, posssible sub for Altior?, in case he dont make it.
Big price on here. |
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"I'd be happy enough to go back for the Ryanair Chase after what he did last year, but lets see what happens with all the other horses first.
Reading that from Mullins,Ryanair is Fav for UDS,well we all knew that,but that does give me hope for the QM. |
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article on the rp website on altior 50/50 to make the game spirit at newbury in feb ,upbeat about altiors progress although yet to have serious work just excersise didnt make a noise and expects to be in more serious work at next week .worth a look !
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With Altior under a cloud and Waiting Patiently going for Ryanair or Gold Cup there could be some value for e/w punters in Dr Phoenix.
Has only had 4 runs since change of yard and improving rapidly . Speculative but not a forlorn hope . |
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Hendo is waxing lyrical about Altior's latest piece of work and well-being at the weekend. He was very, very impressive - brilliant. He moved sweetly, did not take a blow and did not make a noise either; it was absolutely excellent, and as good as ever.
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Yeh see that,all sounds good.
Still,need to see him on the racetrack. |
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If hes fit then he wins. easy.
and i dont think there is any IF involved after those comments. |
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has anyone heard any news on Great Field
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Great Field - He’s coming along nicely, and might make Cheltenham, but have to wait and see..........rough quote from WPM
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Great Field - He’s coming along nicely, and might make Cheltenham, but have to wait and see..........rough quote from WPM
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thank you you live up to your username, when was the quote
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