that makes sense to me bud but it may be my pocket influencing me !

where he goes next will be interesting ! (multiple entries over all distances probably so now wiser  )saying that he may go  to the festival and throw up more confusion who knows !

Yes,i agree Yorkhill would liven up the CH,well certainly the build up anyway.Same with the QM
Problem is the horse has been campaigned with staying further and is bred to stay further.
Thats the point i am making here,the connections dont seem to be seeing him as a 2 miler.
Of course that may change as time moves on,and they may see things as you and others do.
Absolutely agree also that his run the other day does not say Gold Cup contender,but his JLT performance coupled with his breeding does imo.
What i am trying to do here is 2nd guess what they are thinking,and as we all know,that aint easy!!
On all evidence i currently have available to me,i think he will be in the Ryanair.....but i still think its possible they may have another go at 3m.
Where he SHOULD be,well thats certainly open to debate.

Re the Vautour example
Just saying that they have no problem with running horses with lofty reputations in races with less prestige.he ran in the JLT and the Ryanair when an awful lot of people thought he should be in the Arkle and QM or Gold Cup.
Its all about getting festival winners, and if that means they run a horse where we dont think it should......so be it.

Another thing was connections opted to pitch him against Sizing John in his 3m debut chase. And that spoke volume in my book.

Yorkhill not being targeted at 2 mile races doesn't mean that they don't see him as a 2 miler, it just means that they think he is more flexible as opposed to the horses that they already have running in the CH and QM.

However that picture is now changing with Douvan out and Faugheen with a big question mark against him. I think it's highly likely that Mullins wouldn't let both those races pass by without the 2 stars mentioned above without Yorkhill deputizing. On balance I think Yorkhill will run in the QM as that's at least the discipline he's currently racing over and I think the way he raced the other day would have encouraged connections, he jumped better and looked to be enjoying himself, he was also given an easy time when his chance had gone.

For someone who has stated on a few occasions he would never back a Mullins horse antepost again you are spending an inordinate amount of time trying to second guess where his horses may run and how you might be able to beat the market.

Ruby, if recovered from injury, will be key to all the decisions.

Certainly no point trying to second guess anything until after the Irish Champion hurdle / Irish Gold Cup meeting in early February.

I have finally had enough and so have clicked on the block user link for I123 but depsite it confirming he is now blocked and despite logging out and then back in I am still able to read his posts?

Does it only work for posts after I have blocked him or does it not work?

Yes Uncle, no doubt Ruby will have a big say.

Probably right mate that no point in trying to 2nd guess at this stage,but I do enjoy this kind of discussion.
Never know I may get it right one day!!

My only financial interest re all this is UDS in the QM at huge odds, which is obviously rather speculative,but at least he is one that they will surely consider for the race.

Not sure he would be a sacfricial lamb in the QM,his 2m Grade 1 form is there for all to see.

Absolutely no doubt UDS goes through the soft ground better than a lot of horses,and that surface probably gives him his best chance of winning.
However,he has good winning form on decent ground and his run in last years Ryanair,which i thought was impressive,was on ground described as good.
Going through his race record,he has winning form on all surfaces from good to heavy.
To me the formbook tells us that he is a very consistent and genuine horse that goes on all surfaces,and better than most on soft.

The fact that the owners now have two contenders for the Ryanair gives me hope that they will give UDS another crack at the QM.

Yorkhill is shortest for this over his other possibilities, red herring?

mins connections saying he was lit "up " by the gigginstown horses in his last  race in ireland ,well he can expect fireworks in the queen mother .

With a better ride Min will be ok, can't imagine Ruby tearing off on him(or Townend making the same mistake twice).

UDS is a good horse on any ground, but he's no superstar. Sprinter Sacre didn't just beat him, he destroyed him twice, and yes there was no disgrace in that.Fox Norton beat him well in Punchestown. Despite UDS looking to be well in control for most of the race, Fox Norton quickened past him from the last. On soft or heavy I'd fancy UDS to beat FN but on a sound surface I'd take FN every time.

UDS would be a decent each way shout in a QM due to his consistency but I would still expect a couple to beat him(including one of his stable mates).

The Ryanair however is made for him. He can keep that gallop up for an extra half mile and draw the sting out of the others. I really cannot see him swerving the Ryanair unless the ground comes up soft or heavy and the QM cuts up.

Realistically, only two probable destinations for Yorkhill at the Festival ie Queen Mother (QM) and Champion Hurdle (CH) - both prestigious and only over 2m; prices 8 and 14 (here) respectively. The Stayers (S) is almost zero chance, similarly the Gold Cup post Lexus - both over 3m and he finished last in the latter!

If in the less prestigious Ryanair (R) he'd p*ss off the connections of UDS and (possibly) Min - he is 4/1, if so. However, if the CH not only would he relish the task, it is not fences, the distance would suit and also act as a cover for Faugheen should Faugheen be absent and/or unlikely to run his race - Faugheen could be pulled-up during the race which is a probability now rather than a possibility post the Ryanair Hurdle.

QM - 2nd fav after Altior
CH - 2nd/3rd fav after Buveur D'air and Faugheen
R  - short price fav
S  - no chance
GC - no chance

UDS ought to have run in a CH two years ago when he possessed the requisite pace. He was not impressive when beating Sire de Grugy in the 2016 Tingle Creek; he won the Ryanair in 2017 but was beaten by UDS in Ireland - end-of-season engagement must not be used as an excuse; Sizing John had had a much tougher season yet got up to beat Djakadam in the same Irish Festival.

Yorkhill is still youthful but for Faugheen and Mullins' chicken mentality ie moto of winning a '****' race than finishing 2nd in a prestigious one, Yorkhill could have had a CH crown under his belt last season. Also, he ought to have been running in the Supreme but for Min the talking horse of Ricci, Closutton's number 1 patron.

I firmly believe Yorkhill still possesses the pace for a 2m race on any discipline; he's shown 3m especially over fences is beyond him. I'd have Yorkhill before UDS any time any day over 2m/2.5m, period.

Most sane racing people would put the Ryanair comfortably in among the top 10 steeplechases of the entire season between GB and Ireland. Any owner,trainer or jockey would sell their granny to win it.

If you really believe the Lexus was proof that Yorkhill doesn't stay 3 miles then you must also believe that Sizing John and Djakadam have lost their ability to stay 3 miles too.

The Lexus told us nothing at all about Yorkhill's stamina because he didn't run his race, in common with many of his trainer's runners the same week.

Dismissing his ability to stay 3 miles or further on the evidence of that one performance is just another example of the usual hysterical,basket-case over-reactions of Imp123.

first sentence.......better than UDS.......sorry!!

Have to agree with points made in the last two posts.  Re FTV, completely agree that the Ryanair bashing does do my head in a bit - some of our recent Ryanairs have been up there with some of my favourite festival races.  You tend to get good quality, proven G1, younger horses in it that use it as a stepping stone.  However, just because imo, it's a stepping stone to many, that doesn't detract from it being a great race in it's own right.

Agree with Budd in that I would always back UDS over Yorkhill if they met (over any distance), although there is always that little voice inside your head knowing Yorkhill always has the potential to put in a superstar performance and you'd kick yourself if he went unbacked.  However, on the balance of probabilities, you know where you stand with UDS and he'd have my money.

However, I personally could not see UDS or Yorkhill winning a QMCC.  For one, UDS's best ever performance (imo of course) was in last year's Ryanair, so I think that proves that 2.4m is his distance on good ground.  Yes, he did beat all but Sprinter in his QMCC the year before, but let's not forget that was a Sprinter who was 18lbs lower this his peak going into that race, and UDS was an odds on favourite.

Re Yorkhill, I do think he has the speed for 2m as I've said before, but not over fences.  I think 2 mile chasing is a specialist division (more specialist than 2m hurdling imv) and I don't think Yorkhill would have that specialist skill.  Others disagree with me about his fencing, but over 2m going flat out, he'd lose too much ground going left.  You may get away with it in a Ryanair or Gold Cup, but not a QMCC.

Re the Vautour comments above, if they had no problem putting him in the Ryanair then they'll certainly have no problem putting Yorkhill in.  I know it's pointless comparing them, but I will anyway!....imo Vautour was in a completely different class to Yorkhill.

Well they were certainly stronger for the Champion Hurdle Duffy.

With UDS and Djakadam they obviously thought they did not need Vautour in either of the other chases.
To be fair they weren't far off,they both placed,and Vautour won.
Would they do different in hindsight? Guess only they know that.

Interesting if Yorkhill does go 2m next time.It maybe just what the horse has always wanted.

Would be interested in peoples opinions of a horse going from 2 and a half to 3 to 2m in a relatively short space of time.
Not sure its the right way to campaign a horse myself,especially 3m down to 2m!! but I guess when you have so many good horses,you have to try and fit them all in,and also of course to get as many winners as you can. Guess its bound to lead to some horses being tried at different distances,and some running at distances we don't agree with.

Budd, going from 2.5m to 3m in a short space is a big positive imo and something I look for when backing one over 3m.

People can argue that there is no form in the book at that distance, but often there is big improvement the first time they step up; Sizing John last year is an example, Solwhit over hurdles another. Obviously sometimes they don't stay, so it is a risk though.

One thing I would say about Yorkhill is that I don't think the other day says he doesn't stay 3m.

Not for me to question Mullins (although I am!) but he was really chucked in at the deep end. His first ever run out of novice company was in a Grade 1 chase over a distance he has never ran over (outside of ptp) and it was his first run in 9 months against race fit rivals. Looking at it now, did he ever stand a chance before the flag fell?

Normally the first race out of novice company would be a pipe opener against similar opposition over a comfortable distance, and then ramp it up after that. I know there will people using the term 'armchair trainer', 'thinks he knows better than Mullins' etc, but it's how I see it.

Going back from 3m to 2m (over hurdles or fences is rare) but I think at this stage of his career, and we are now a good way through the season, I'd draw stumps on the 3m ambition for now and then try again next year when he can have a proper prep (maybe in the John Durkan like SJ and Djak) and go from there? Personally think they should make a decision now and stick to it, rather than being undecided the week before.

Annie Power shows to me that sometimes some horses that have ran over 3m can be brought back to 2m and win championship races, but maybe that's easier over hurdles?

I'd be amazed if Min wasn't in the Champion Chase and UDS in the Ryanair. As they split them all up that only leaves Gold Cup or Champion Hurdle for Yorkhill imo.

I'm still interested in Fox Norton for this and he'd be another 3m down to 2m.