Cheltenham Festival
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Samcro
Samcro
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I think that’s harsh on BD myself. He’s undefeated in his last ten starts including six Grade One’s. How many horses have ever done that? For some reason he doesn’t seem to get the credit he deserves.
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I think he hasn't had a lot to beat in a weak couple of seasons. Melon's record is not strong enough - yet at least - to suggest he should have got that close to Buveur. That said, until the horse is beaten, it's hard to knock him.
It would be great if he has a proper test this time around and we can then see if if he's one of the greats or was really lucky to grab a couple of below par Champions. Going back to Samcro, another thing that bothers me is his size. Elliott said he'd strengthened a lot over the summer and he certainly looked a big horse to my eyes. Unless my memory is failing me, the only "Big horse" I remember that's won a Champion Hurdle (2 actually) was Comedy of Errors. Samcro screams chaser to look at. What are they doing? |
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The Champion Hurdle looks wide open to me at this stage. Buveur,Melon,Supersundae,Faugheen all have claims.Some of last year's novices can step up. Mullins is going to have a big say. Laurina could be anything. True Self is a rapid improver. She hosed up in 2 listed races in the last few weeks making her a proper Group horse on the flat - the latest over 10 furlongs and she's by Oscar! She will soon make a mockery of her hurdles rating of 130.
Faugheen's price,33-1,is an insult.Only one hurdler posted a mark in excess of 170 last season and it was Faugheen,and he did it twice.He's about to turn 11 which is a negative,but if they get an injury-free season with him and he's at the level he was at in November last year or April this year, then he will run in the Champion Hurdle and it will take a career best performance from the others to beat him. |
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My thoughts on Samcro and Fridays race.
Let's just say Bedrock hadn't run. Everyone would be lauding over Samcro beating 155 rated Sharjah 5l giving 8lb. Maybe Sharjah ran to 155, do we know he didn't? Using that figure Samcro ran to approx 167 at the weights and within 5lb of Buveur Dair on his first run of the season!! But maybe Sharjah ran to 150 again we don't know but this would trim Samcro to 162. We know Bedrock is on a steep upward curve based on his last 2 runs and has massively turned the form around with Sharjah. The time was good and I can easily have him running to 160 at Down royal. So with improvement likely after his first run does anyone seriously think the games up for Samcro? I do think Buveur Dair is underrated but not invincible. Laurina could be anything? Summerville Boy also has potential to be a player and I would not rule Bedrock out as he's improving fast, but he may end up the other side of the Atlantic. Other than these 5 I cannot see any other serious challengers for the Champion Hurdle. |
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Agree Catch, I think it harsh as well.
It seems that last years close victory over Melon is being used as a stick to beat him with. I look at it differently and focus on his ability to win the race on heavy ground. I know he can go on soft,but that was softer than ideal imo, and difficult to show his speed which has helped him to gain all his victories. Had that been normal good to soft or better I think he would have won more comfortably. Hopefully I will be proved correct should they meet again on better ground. Shock Basically you are judging Samcros run through Sharjah, and as you say, we dont know what Sharjah ran up to. I look at the visual impression and he looked to me far from a Ch Hurdle horse. Important thing though at this stage is his connections don't seem to think the games up. Intersting to see his next race......very interesting!! |
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Elliot has said Samcro runs a week on Sunday in the Morgiana and as you say Bud it will be interesting.
I have a feeling though that Mullins won't run Laurina 1st time up against Samcro and Faugheen is to be kept to distances. So likely IMO to be Melon and Supasundae as the main opposition. If he can't win this race then I do think it's the end of the road. However, I'll be surprised with a run under his belt if he doesn't win. |
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"Everyone would be lauding over Samcro beating 155 rated Sharjah 5l giving 8lb"
I don't think so. The betting suggested beating them both was a formality. And Sharjah's last two runs - on the flat - have been poor so his official rating is hardly reliable at present. On RP ratings, he's only once cracked the 150 mark in 11 outings over hurdles and he's been on the go all year. As for Bedrock, he beat the 132 rated Plinth last time out. Comfortably, yes but this is miles away from top hurdling form by any reading of the book. |
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I think one big reason they are staying hurdling with Samcro this season is to help GE win the trainers championship. You're talking about near 400K in win prizemoney alone and it's no secret that Gigginstown are desperate for GE to win it. There was a recent article on ATR that touched on this. Definitely has merit. imo.
Although very disappointing you have to give Samcro a chance to make amends in the Morgiana. With the unseasonably dry weather you can expect lots of classy horses, running this early in the season, to be turned over. I'm keeping the faith. GL |
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Samcro or no Samcro GE wont be winning this years championship
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Cyclops _ That's another way of looking at I grant you and fair enough. Handicapper has now raised Bedrock to 154 which to me seems on the cautious side but time will tell.
I still say the HYPE around Samcro would have gone through the roof if Bedrock had not been in that race though. Looking forward to the Morgiana and still fully expect Samcro to win at level weights as I doubt Laurina will run. Looks like it will be the Punchestown race all over again with Melon and Supasundae as chief threats. |
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Hype wouldn't have gone through the roof without Bedrock IMO because it would still have been anything but an easy victory, it was workmanlike to beat Sharjah.
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2nd coming is 11/8 for The Morgiana on 18th Nov at Punchestown, any taker?
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No thanks....awful price.
Unless Melon and /or Supasundae don't turn up. |
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Will Samcro (4/5) win The Morgiana at Punchestown on sunday? No Melon, only Faugheen (2/1) and Supasundae (7/1) to beat, I think (and the ground); Faugheen is on the decline and Supasundae needs further than 2 miles to show his best.
If he runs (ground might not be soft enough) he will need to win comprehensively to be a serious contender for The Champion hurdle; a defeat will extinguish any aspiration of winning that race, I firmly believe. |
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Faugheen is on the decline and Supasundae needs further than 2 miles to show his best.
Faugheen's latest run was the best hurdles performance from any horse last year - either side of the sea.If he's in similar form on Sunday he will win comfortably. Supasundae ran twice over 2 miles last season and won both. They were both Grade 1s. He has never won a grade 1 over a distance further than 2 miles. |
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With the money coming for Supasundae,Wicklow Brave & Sharjah I would be surprised if Samcro or Faugheen runs. Hope they do though it'll show hopefully in what position Samcro is
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Samcro was withdrawn at Punchestown today, but could be running in the Fighting Fifth at Newcastle on 1st Dec against Buveur D'Air, according to Elliot. Really? Where would he go if beaten? He could not go for The champion Hurdle, and might be too late for chasing by then.
I still think Samcro despite what Elliot has said would be kept to races in Ireland until Cheltenham. |
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Impossible I think that's the best option beat Buveur then onto Ltown over Christmas.
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have had a few quid on bedrock near 50s ,unfashionable trainer but would certaintly be shorter with a "top" trainer ,had the advantage of a run and recieving a few pounds when beating samcro and sharjah but he did it well enough and good form in the book already as shockster said is on an upward curve 100/% record on gd to soft 5 from 5 and at the prices worth a few quid e.w another win pre chelt and his prices drops .
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Good luck Foyles,nice price.
Personally dont rate the Irish form at all thus far this season,dont think BD will be losing too much sleep. That sort of price i can see the temptation though. |
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Bedrock has been raised another 3lb to 157 by BHA on the back of Sharjahs win.
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I wont be supporting samcro for the following reasons
Two miles is too quick him He has the make of a chaser but not necessarily over three miles. The opposition. I watched samcro at monksgrange, not a great jumper , sure to catch up with him |
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Samcro reminds me of Dunguib. A talking horse that turns out to be a reasonable 150 plus handicap chaser in time. I think the Cheltenham win burst him. Like they say...it takes a good 'un to come back.
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Which Cheltenham race in March will he go after tomorrow? JLT or RSA? The Arkle could be a bit too quick for him, I think.
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They've said that whatever happens tomorrow, he'll stay hurdling this season.
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buddeliea
25 Nov 18 13:48 Personally dont rate the Irish form at all thus far this season LUV IT ! ….roll on those big tasty Cheltenham outsiders that you missed through not watching galway, limerick, navan, gowran etc etc etc |
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I think he'll go for the JLT impossible123. Agree with you the Arkle will be a bit too quick as that's on the Tuesday
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What u on about Irish??
I am referring to the Irish CH form thus far.......Bedrock,Samcro and Sharjah. |
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Still we should find out a lot more about the Irish form tomorrow at Newcastle.
Foyles might have a big grin on his face after the race!! |
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Oh dear,just seen that Bedrock is a non runner.
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"They've said whatever happens tomorrow, he'll stay hurdling this season".
Eddie O'Leary: "It's a big ask - it's a huge ask. At least we'll know what direction we are going in after this." |
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Samcro wins tomorrow with his head in the chest
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It was Elliott who said they'll stick to hurdling so interesting to see what happens if he doesn't cut the mustard today, but Elliott is usually reliable and I doubt they'll switch to chasing.
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Hard to see any case for Samcro beating the champ today,having seen his race last time.
Still,things happen in this sport. Find out later. |
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We found out
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Nice exercise canter for Buveur D'Air against race fit Samcro. Anyone who contributed to making Samcro favourite must be mad.
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Too quick for him
That two miles Samcro needs a bit more |
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Hes not good enough at 2 miles that's for sure.
Completely outclassed. They need to be fair to the horse and find his optimum conditions. It aint 2m hudling at this level. Still looks a chaser to me. |
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To be fair the owner has never talked him up as much as the punters and pundits. That performance shows to me there is credence in the theory that he schooled badly over fences. If they're resolved to keep him over hurdles the Stayer's would be the better option.
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If fences are not an option then they're in trouble.
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