Cheltenham Festival
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Samcro
Samcro
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Charlotte, I really can’t see the owners willing to wait until Samcro is NINE before being close to a Gold Cup run, and the only way to avoid that, is to go chasing now, or if going hurdling instead, then having a “novice into Gold Cup” season all in one the following year.
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Entry in the (Grade 1) 2m Morgiana H'dle at P/stown against Faugheen et al.....Roll on the Champion Hurdle.
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Champion Hurdle bound for the 2nd coming.
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best price 3/1
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The Champion Hurdle is my fav jumps race, and has often lost out in race quality depth in recent years, as many top novice hurdles went straight over fences. This gives the 2m hurdle division a real boost, I hope the race on day 1 of the Festival is an absolute cracker.
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Runs friday at downroyal allegedly over two miles
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Pleasantly surprised.
Agree with deepingfox completely,a real boost,its great for the festival that we could have Samcro in the CH. |
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Makes LAURINA's price massive now, so I am happy with that, as well.
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Pesky bookies haven't budged Laurina from 10's. Rather her with 7lb allowance at 10's than SAMCRO at 11/4. Pity they didn't bump her out to a bigger price yet. Maybe if Samcro wins easily on Friday he will go into 6/4 and the others will drift.
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I hope BD drifts
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It'll be interesting to see how close Sharjah can get to The Fro on Friday
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CRO*
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3 mile novice chase next?
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^
That was slightly tongue in cheek by the way  , however you do have to wonder if he's simply got enough pace for a CH, he looks a stayer to me. |
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Absolutely Duffy, I think they needed today to see of he did have the ability to be a quick 2m hurdle, and now they know he doesn't. Looked incredibly short of pace.
I've backed LAURINA & SUMMERVILLE BOY for the Champion, because they looked the better prospects to become quickeners over the 2m. Couldnt believe SB was 25/1 for the race (& still 14/1). Saw the reason For Laurina to be 14/1, as she had other options (the 10/1 after confirmation that the Champion was her target looked huge cw Samcro) and she is now 6/1 and shortening. They could give SAMCRO one more go, in the Hattons Grace for a definitive answer. |
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Just a few days after Elliot and Gigginstown announce the horse is going for the Champion Hurdle he throws custard pies in their faces. That's life. Maybe there is merit in the Mullins approach
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only 5/1 now thought it wd be bigger after that
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It's not usually fair to write a horse off after one run but shirley they have to write off the Champion Hurdle. Given how bullish they were earlier in the week you have to assume he was going well at home.
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Oh dear!!
Plan B......chasing? Geared up to the JLT in March?? |
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He hasn't become a poor horse overnight, but he certainly did not look like a 2 mile hurdler. Jumped ok, but not with the slickness needed. 2 miles on good ground against good horses is surely not what he wants.
Elliott said the Morgiana comes next. If he were mine, I'd be schooling him over fences and forgetting all about hurdling. He's rising 7 and you wouldn't want to get too deep into the season and then change tack with a horse this good. Hurdling looked a puzzling decision - it looks even stranger if they persevere on today's evidence. |
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It could be that Samcro is just another good horse but not a superstar. He was the best of the novices last year but the novices were not an exceptional bunch. His jumping was good today. In open company,hurdles or fences, its quite likely that he's not going to dominate.
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Thought he was jumping a bit high tbh. Reminded me of Sizing Europe over hurdles but that horse looked quicker. It would definitely be chasing for me.
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A reminder that ELLIOTT's Apple's Jade 1/2f was beaten in this race in 2016 (by 10/1 Rashaan, with Petit Mouchoir 3rd). She was then the Punchestown Champion 4YO Hurdle Grade 1 winner under WPM/Bryan Cooper (i.e. MACHINE, and PP were 8/1 for the 2017 Champion Hurdle).
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Jesus boys relax you all know as much as me that was a warm with bigger fish to fry. Personally I didn't think it was 2 bad giving a race fit 149 rated horse 6lbs.
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You are right in that it wasn't a bad performance at all. Its not the horse's fault that he's the most hyped horse in years. Maybe he will prove to be a superstar some day but to do so he will have to find roughly 20 lb of improvement on what he's done so far.He's sure to come on for the run,and he will win plenty of races,but I very much doubt that he's the second coming of christ.
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I am judging on what I have seen on the racetrack,not the various quotes from people connected to the horse.
From what I have seen thus far,and it is still relatively early,i see a potential good chaser that does not have the required speed for races at 2 miles,and a horse that may struggle to stay the Gold Cup distance. At this early stage I see his future as a chaser at around 2 and a half miles. I certainly have not seen anything to suggest the Champion Hurdle as realistic,and yesterday was a million miles away from that. |
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Spot on, budd, although I might take issue on the stamina question.
Did you think he was coming to the end of his tether at Cheltenham or do you have other reasons for doubting his stamina? |
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Yes mate, after the Ballymore I thought Samcro had gone as far as he wanted on the day.
Yes he may grow into a stayer,and it looks to me more likely that than a 2 miler anyway. If he does end up a Gold Cup type,fair enough,and I hope he does,but at this stage I see in between as his optimum. Whatever happens, I really hope he aint messed about too much,and we end up with a horse that is running in races that are right for him. |
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Another thing to consider, and I see it has been mentioned on here....has he actually jumped a fence at home? and is struggling with fences??
That would certainly explain the fact they are persevering with hurdling. Anyone know?? |
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The wheels have come off
Anyone who owns a chesnut knew the score Contrary at the best of times |
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First time visor I agree with you that Samcro needs to improve on winning a champion hurdle but personally I don't thin
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I think the others are on the downgrade it won't take much winning in it..
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Laurina could still have a say also,we will find out more in two weeks time
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Buveur D'air on the downgrade???
Hes a 7 yr old,unbeaten since his novice hurdle days,and his last run was winning the Champion Hurdle!! Think that sounds like wishful thinking. |
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On Samcro, Elliott said: "I'm disappointed he didn't win but happy the horse is in one piece this morning."
When asked about fences, he replied: "No, no, we will stick the way we are going He must think there is a heck of a lot of improvement to come!! |
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Hey Budd I think more downgrade at that trip that's my opinion harder to judge obviously because Beveur can slip around in England until Cheltenham then received a hard race against Melon which in my eyes he should be beating relatively easy.
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Hopefully the English horses this year could bring out further improvement in Beveur
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Samcro in the Arkle, along with Footpad in the QMCC, was the cornerstone of my Ante Post Acca strategy and I had some nice prices but today I have admitted defeat and cashed them all in (without loss) and now re-thinking the annual AP and Acca strategy. They seem hell bent on taking the Champion Hurdle route for this season and only time will tell if that is right or not. To my uneducated eye he does not look quick enough between hurdles nor quick enough over the hurdles to win a Champion Hurdle. They may of course be driven by the fact he hasn't been impressive over the bigger obstacles when schooled at home but we will never know. Lets not forget he fell over hurdles when under pressure for the first time. What I do know is I dont think BVD sat in his stable nor Nicky Henderson are going to be over concerned by what they have seen from him to date. Like the horse a lot and thought he would have made a great 2m Novice Chaser and then move up in distance to Gold Cup. Back to the Drawing Board but at least I still have my cash to play with. Gotta love that Cash Out option !!!!!
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Really don't see anything to suggest BD is not a good Champion Hurdler,or on the downgrade.
Hes been the best around over the last two seasons,and yes he did have a hard race to win this year,but he just showed another of his qualities.....the ability to battle up the hill on heavy ground,to go with his other obvious qualities. He does not need to improve,hes proven the best around,and at his age its unlikely anyway. His rivals next March,whoever they may be,they need to improve. Maybe one or two of them will improve to the required level and beat BD,certainly on the evidence we have Melon is close to him on heavy ground,not so sure if ground is better though. The rest are all novices so definitely need to improve,and they should do,but how much? |
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The way I see it is this, BD is a solid reliable Champion Hurdler, he won't be looked back on as anything more than that. Solid and reliable has been enough to get the job done through the last couple of years though with other horses that could have won the race either past it, loopy or sent over fences. He doesn't possess a turn of foot rather he has outstayed a rather average bunch.
Laurina is full of promise but that is what it is at the moment "promise" my opinion is that she will step up to the plate and prove to be all class, I believe she'll have too much pace for BD and finally expose that flaw. Summerville Boy is another strong contender after a very impressive Supreme win, to do what he did after his passage was impressive. If those two opponents don't go on this year then the reliability of BD may again get the job done. As it stands right now I'd be surprised if the winner came from anywhere else. |