Cheltenham Festival
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The cult of Don Poli
The cult of Don Poli
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Except the rather crucial one of having ever bettered a 160 rated horse, let alone 170 or 180!
You don't know if that's crucial yet. He has beat what is in front of him. I don't think a 180 or even 170 horse is in this field that will relish the trip and conditions. If DP produces a 165 that may be good enough frankly. What is crucial is to win the GC you need a horse who can stay, jump and thrives around Cheltenham. I would say that discounts Vatour, Don Cossack and arguably Cue card (streches his stamina over 3m2f). |
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He needs to stay but also needs to be good enough to hold a decent enough position it's simply just not about staying per se.....He needs to be effective in that class throughout otherwise the staying may well become redundant.
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Augustine
10 Feb 16 22:23 Duffy, wasn't it about Sea The Stars? Possibly, Dancing Brave was in there as well. An article slagging DB and praising STS followed by one praising DB and slagging STS. It was very well done. Yes I think you've got it there, wish I could remember who did it or if there was a copy somewhere, sure it was done by an eminent poster from back then and even though I can't remember who it was I've a hunch he's not about much now. |
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Duffy,
How fast do you think they are gonna go in this race? Even on decent ground they are hardly going at breakneck speed,we have two leading fancies with stamina doubts. |
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Vautour a likely front runner being one of them.
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The horse he reminds me of is Synchronised who did win a GC, admittedly a sub standard one. The line is that fine between dour stayer and getting outpaced and detached and Synchronised was a prime example in his GC win. LW was something similar 2 years ago but both were considered poor renewals. I reckon Mullins will have him put out the back with a view to him running on past beaten horses in the last half mile. If that's the case it's possible to make a strong case for him getting placed, however I think he will find one or two too good.
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I do agree with the assertion that a performance in the low 170s may be enough to win this GC. There are holes in all the main protagonists which makes the race such a fascinating contest.
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I think the opposite Trigger,think he will be off the pace,but not far back. And my gut feeling is he will keep his position.
If the race pushes him back so be iti,and he could struggle to figure,but I don't think that will be the plan. More I think about this horse the more I think he's the one,along with Cue Card. |
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Long time reader first time poster. Great OP, though I think Don Poli's position in the market is fair enough given the questions around all of the market principals. Think it is more of a question around the layers keeping him onside given he's won 3 grade 1s over fences. I'd also forgive his Punchestown run - from memory Don Cossack ran in the same race the year before and was well beaten.
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I know everyone knows his run style but i couldn't back him at 6-1 pre race, he will surely trade much bigger in the run, especially with a smooth traveller like vautour in opposition will be shocked if he doesnt trade at least double his sp
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^ Agreed - I don't fancy him at all but even his fans would surely expect bigger than 6-1 in-running? Seems the logical way to go if you fancy him...
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Actually think the criticism is unfair.
Has run in four Grade 1 chases and won three of them. The other he DEFINITELY didn't give his running. Anyone who really thinks he did - and is therefore 6 lengths worse than Irish Cavalier - should be banned from all racecourses. Has run 12 times, winning 8, finishing 2nd 3 times, and only time outside the first 2 was when he didn't give his running. Has run twice at the Cheltenham Festival, winning both times. I'm not on him but on that basis think he's deserving of plenty of respect and as someone else said, I wouldn't want to see him within a couple of lengths of mine as they start to climb the hill. |
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Don Poli has not run against a horse of any Grade 1 form since winning the RSA last year eg Cue Card, Vautour, Djakadam or even RTR.
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I don't think you can criticise a horse, but you can his price for a top class race. He's in deep waters and he's almost co-joined favourite..
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Could we at least have an admission from DP supporters that his form does not entitle him to be 6/1.
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I backed Don Poli at present price 6/1 after he won RSA last season in double with Douvan at 4/1. He certainly should be few points bigger on form this season, and think he will drift before day if all show. Hoping Vautour shows as bigger single bets on him fwiw.
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Just hope they all show could be best Gold Cup for many years imo.
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He could well be too short,but I do think a lot struggle to work him out including the bookies!!
Personally I would feather back him at 6 then Vautour at his price. I do take the point about in running price,but that's not my thing at the festival,I want to watch races like these without all that going on!! Anyway as said before I think he will be positioned well throughout the race, so in running may not get any/ much bigger imo. |
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I don't think there's too much value in the 6/1 but you can pick holes about the first 6 in the market. If Cooper picks DP over DC then you would think he would shorten further - if it lashes down all week he could go off favourite!
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I have to say I'm no fan of any particular horse as I'm far to mercenary for that, fwiw if it wasn't for the major doubt about the trip for Vautour I think he's the best horse in GC but that's another debate. I do also like DP he's not flash but he's 2 from 2 at the festival which no one can knock and for the DP cult there is one glimmer of hope in comparison to the over hyped DC. The facts are DP was a better novice chaser than DC.
Don Cossacks novice chase season 7 runs 2 wins, 1 grade one win 3 seconds 1 fourth 1 fall at Cheltenham Ended the season rated 151 Don Polis novice chase season 4 runs 3 wins, 2 grade one wins 1 fifth Ended the season rated 163 So all the cult members take comfort from the fact DP is the undoubted superior novice chaser to DC. |
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Sir Don has improved lumps since his novice days just look at his rating and all the 1s next to his name.
I like DP but he has onlly beat handicappers so far in his short career. |
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So DP can't improve? The facts are there DP was the better novice
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Being a better novice means diddly and on DPs two runs this season i can't see much improvement if any.
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The thing with DP is that because he manages to win despite having to come under pressure, his supporters see him as some sort of tough guy that will always find away, a grisly old street fighter, they think he is giant's causeway.
His detractors simply see him struggling to beat many clouds and FL. |
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It might mean diddly to you but it's a fact and I'm pretty sure he'd beat the likes of Texas Jack, Roi Du Mee, Boston Bob, Texas Jack as the mighty DC did. DC best form is a beating of CC who obviously wasn't at his best and Djakadam + RTR who may have been over the top? DP followers may be a cult but some of DC followers have delusions of grandeur about the horse imo.
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in other words, 'I plod on' cult imagine that he'll though it out against any horse, while the rest don't have that kind of imagination.
Sir Don fans follow facts in that he posted one or two performance which made him the top rated chaser of last season with every rating organization in the country. Yet we are accused of having delusions about the horse. Imagination vs Facts? You have to pay 6/1 for first and 9/2 for the latter. |
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Well the fact that it was being mentioned that DC possibly could be held in the same regards as Kauto or Dessie then to me that's delusional. DC has won 5 Grade1s but two of his biggest tests at Grade 1 in the KG and SA were unlucky falls
 Unlucky because his jumping is suspect under pressure? |
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One other thing about DC top rating which can't be argued about but it would be interesting if they had a course specific rating? I'd love to see his Cheltenham one?
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DC is not in the same league as KS - he might be on the way but he's to win the CGC 1st, then the KG, and repeat this 2 more times to be considered.
Regards DP, what has DP beaten? The best of all was Apache Stronghold who was thrashed by Vautour in the JLT; First Lieutenant, beaten 1/2 a length by DP, has not won since Aintree in April 2013; I think if DP was not owned by Gigginstown he'd have run in the Lexus, the KG, definitely the Irish Gold Cup last week, and his true potential/rating will be known by now rather than at Cheltenham next month; on known performance DP is at least one stone behind DC, and that is generous, sorry DP fans! |
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Sorry tim look at the DC thread cyclops says he can be mentioned with Kauto, Dessie. One win in March? ha ha get real how many KGs did those two win? Sometimes I think the official handicapper over rates these horses and that maybe the case with DC? But one GC win and he's one of the greats
DC is a grand horse but don't believe hype. |
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Cyclops referred to the Cheltenham record of some horses not being great but still being held in high regard, he made no comparison with Kauto or Dessie, only mentioned them as great horses that weren't able to dominate Chelt. You then came on and made direct comparisons to which I've responded.
As for overrating DC you're clearly out of the loop as he could've easily been given a 5 pounds higher figure for what he did at Aintree. Timeform, Racing Post and official handicappers all had him as best staying chaser in the country and by those figures the best one since Kauto. Its experts opinion vs yours. |
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At Aintree?? he beat an out of sorts Cue Card
if that form is so solid how come DC if he had stood up wouldn't have beaten CC by 20l+ the mighty John's Spirit in 3rd!!!! I may well be out of the loop but I think some of the figures they come up with are fantasy, in my out of the loop opinion. At one point on the flat Golden Horn wasn't far off Frankel The facts are the biggest of stages DC has yet to prove himself mostly because of his unlucky jumping, roll on March 18th I'm just waiting for the excuses! |
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beaten CC by 20l + in the KG
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it seems your not out of loop of how handicapping works, but you're also confused on how each horse can put a different performance in two different races. Comparing Don at Aintree where he was near unstoppable with the KG run in which he didn't travelled at all, is naive to say the least but even so he was getting the better of CC when falling 2 out.
As for big stages there've been plenty of much inferior horses to win at Chelt, it all depends on opposition and how a horse deals with it. To go back on topic, Don Poli has beat horses in the RSA that haven't won a single race since, thats called a very weak renewal and if my imagination was as big as his cult followers I'd be inclined to back him at any price thinking he'll pull it out again against almost 2 stone better horses. |
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Not the only one who is confused, CC at Aintree was underperforming as in the summer CT did a procedure which has seen CC come back to his best, unstoppable against out of form horses no doubt! Why didn't travel? the other horses going to fast for him maybe? Because at the very top level his lots of????????????????
I'm not saying DP will win but one fact with your bible of official marks he was still a better novice chaser than DC fact even in my confused and out of the loopiness |
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That was the impressive thing for me in the KG, he was on and off the bridal whilst CC and even more so Vautour were moving far easier yet it still wasn't enough to see him off, his class kept him handy enough for his stamina to be effective...all in all it was a bloody shame he fell on his aris really.
Contrast him with say SP who was running in the best race he'd ever contested and although stays further had his tanks well and truly emptied through the race trying to go their pace. |
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Exactly, you've used the novice mark of Dons to prove a point and now you're dismissing any sort of ratings because it doesn't suit your argument. Sir Don has come on plenty from his novice days and that can be easily seen in his form. Poli in his open season struggled to beat a 10yo and the GN winner who is a classy sort but still over 3 miles he should've stamped his class much easier than he did.
agree @duffy, thats the impressive bit about him but that KG performance resembled nothing of what he did at Aintree. |
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Like an out of sorts CC at Aintree doesn't suit yours!
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Hopefully, all will be settled in 5 weeks' time between the two Dons and others - what a wonderful asset time is!
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