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I don't know who will win the Gold Cup, though I have my opinions and I can present an argument as to why I think I'm right, as can those who support most of the others at the top of the market.
Yet, with Don Poli, followers seem to be akin to those belonging to a religious cult; "He only ever does just enough and will do just enough regardless of who he's against" is their cry. If we examine the evidence for this claim, there doesn't seem to be any, but 6/1 for the Gold Cup seems to be based on this strange view.
The one performance he's given which propelled him to his lofty position in the market, the RSA, saw him stride clear, winning by six lengths. Impressive, indeed, despite running lazily for a spell around halfway, though no evidence that he only does enough. However, you have to examine the strength of a race to really appreciate the merit of the form and the fact is that it turns out to have been one of the weakest RSA's on record. Other than DP, a single winner since has come from the race (if In Doubt) and that was off a handicap mark of 140.
Punchestown has been ignored by followers, but why should it be? It was only his fourth run of the campaign, six weeks after Cheltenham, which couldn't be called a hard race, and Mullins was flying. Don Poli looked to be beaten because he was slow and a disappointed Mullins said nothing of him being over the top, simply that the ground may have been too fast for him.
And so to this season. A four length win over the increasingly slow Many Clouds, receiving five pounds. Supporters disappointed? Not a bit of it. He shortens for the Gold Cup. Ah yes, he needed the race; let's forget the painfully long time it took him to master the runner-up.
Leopardstown, after which I imagined he'd drift to 20/1 as his ideal conditions saw him struggle home against the third division. No, he shortens again! Regardless of the obvious disappointment from both Mullins and Cooper and the desperate scramble to the line, the "he only ever does enough" brigade get their trumpets out, losing all sight of the fact that his form places him around 20lbs below a Gold Cup winner. A run that would have been seen as unacceptable by any other market leader is held up as proof that he's the second coming. First Lieutenant chaps! and Foxrock! Or maybe On His Own has sprouted wings?
Lines through First Lieutenant and Many Clouds place Don Poli between 9 and 19 pounds behind Smad Place, who struggled in the King George. As DP hasn't yet raced against a top class opponent, there are few other lines that relate.
Does anyone know of any horse that gives credence to the DP war cry? Any horse, ever, who beats 150 rated horses after a struggle but can then beat 170/180 horses as well?
Yet, with Don Poli, followers seem to be akin to those belonging to a religious cult; "He only ever does just enough and will do just enough regardless of who he's against" is their cry. If we examine the evidence for this claim, there doesn't seem to be any, but 6/1 for the Gold Cup seems to be based on this strange view.
The one performance he's given which propelled him to his lofty position in the market, the RSA, saw him stride clear, winning by six lengths. Impressive, indeed, despite running lazily for a spell around halfway, though no evidence that he only does enough. However, you have to examine the strength of a race to really appreciate the merit of the form and the fact is that it turns out to have been one of the weakest RSA's on record. Other than DP, a single winner since has come from the race (if In Doubt) and that was off a handicap mark of 140.
Punchestown has been ignored by followers, but why should it be? It was only his fourth run of the campaign, six weeks after Cheltenham, which couldn't be called a hard race, and Mullins was flying. Don Poli looked to be beaten because he was slow and a disappointed Mullins said nothing of him being over the top, simply that the ground may have been too fast for him.
And so to this season. A four length win over the increasingly slow Many Clouds, receiving five pounds. Supporters disappointed? Not a bit of it. He shortens for the Gold Cup. Ah yes, he needed the race; let's forget the painfully long time it took him to master the runner-up.
Leopardstown, after which I imagined he'd drift to 20/1 as his ideal conditions saw him struggle home against the third division. No, he shortens again! Regardless of the obvious disappointment from both Mullins and Cooper and the desperate scramble to the line, the "he only ever does enough" brigade get their trumpets out, losing all sight of the fact that his form places him around 20lbs below a Gold Cup winner. A run that would have been seen as unacceptable by any other market leader is held up as proof that he's the second coming. First Lieutenant chaps! and Foxrock! Or maybe On His Own has sprouted wings?
Lines through First Lieutenant and Many Clouds place Don Poli between 9 and 19 pounds behind Smad Place, who struggled in the King George. As DP hasn't yet raced against a top class opponent, there are few other lines that relate.
Does anyone know of any horse that gives credence to the DP war cry? Any horse, ever, who beats 150 rated horses after a struggle but can then beat 170/180 horses as well?
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I'm more in the CCM camp with this one. Cyclops, I defintiely think you've got your Don Cossack glasses on when writing this, and I've said before, his fans are a lot more "cultish" than Don Poli's.
I have not backed Poli and have no intention too, but I think it's harsh not to give him one single positive, and focused purely on the negatives. The fact is he is 2 from 2 at Cheltenham, both on normal festival ground. He won the Martin Pipe off about 10 pounds higher than when Killutagh Vic and Sir Des Champs did when they won it.
You do get a lot of strange form in staying chases in the winter in Ireland, so I wouldn't be taking his First Lieutenant run literally. Just look at Carlingford Lough improving stones the other day. Last year On His Own was beaten 79 lengths first time out by Road to Riches, and then got within a length next time in the Lexus. Lord Windermere was beaten out of sight in the winter in Ireland and then won a Gold Cup.
Course form, on festival ground is a huge factor. I'm not saying ignore races all through the year, but I could reel off a load of positives and negatives for Vautour, Djakadam, Cue Card and Cossack too.
I have not backed Poli and have no intention too, but I think it's harsh not to give him one single positive, and focused purely on the negatives. The fact is he is 2 from 2 at Cheltenham, both on normal festival ground. He won the Martin Pipe off about 10 pounds higher than when Killutagh Vic and Sir Des Champs did when they won it.
You do get a lot of strange form in staying chases in the winter in Ireland, so I wouldn't be taking his First Lieutenant run literally. Just look at Carlingford Lough improving stones the other day. Last year On His Own was beaten 79 lengths first time out by Road to Riches, and then got within a length next time in the Lexus. Lord Windermere was beaten out of sight in the winter in Ireland and then won a Gold Cup.
Course form, on festival ground is a huge factor. I'm not saying ignore races all through the year, but I could reel off a load of positives and negatives for Vautour, Djakadam, Cue Card and Cossack too.
I am a fan of Don Poli. Not sure I would admit to being part of any cult but I do think he will win or go very close in the Gold Cup. I also agree there is little, or nothing, in the form book to say he wins the Gold Cup. I just feel he is a two time Festival winner who will relish the stamina test of a fast run and gruelling Gold Cup and I like what I see when I watch him running. I don't buy in to the argument he is slow. He won the Martin Pipe in a fast run race. I think he is made for this one. I guess I am placing my faith in what I see rather than the form book. Win or lose I will be back after the race !!! 
Ming, neither of those examples hold water. And, as to his price holding up, there's only so much money most of us have to lay horses!
wellchief, no DC glasses on with this one. Happy to prove guilty to that charge overall but, even taking the great DC out of the equation, I find DP an extraordinary price. Yes, surprises happen; I would never say a horse "can't" win as the examples you quote underline how stupid that would be. And, yes, those gruelling Irish chases do throw up odd results. But aren't those conditions meant to be perfect for Don Poli?
wellchief, no DC glasses on with this one. Happy to prove guilty to that charge overall but, even taking the great DC out of the equation, I find DP an extraordinary price. Yes, surprises happen; I would never say a horse "can't" win as the examples you quote underline how stupid that would be. And, yes, those gruelling Irish chases do throw up odd results. But aren't those conditions meant to be perfect for Don Poli?
wc - yes all horses can be given negatives but those horses even with their negatives are rated higher than dp and a few considerably so - and presumably the ratings attempt to take a balanced view and not glass half full nor half empty view. fwiw i thought the post was one of the most interesting posts i have read on here for some time - i appear to be one of the few that are completely unsure and open minded about dp - having read the post i am in exactly the same place - so for me it was designed more to illustrate that a glass half full approach rather than a balanced approach is needed to warrant placing him above not one but a number of higher rated horses.
Think some are forgetting that the Gold Cup is just over 2 furlongs longer than 3m and has an uphill finish, conditions that should suit a horse like Don Poli.
Can I say the same about his main threats.......nope.
Don't mean he will win of course, but it makes me very wary of not having him on my side.
Can I say the same about his main threats.......nope.
Don't mean he will win of course, but it makes me very wary of not having him on my side.
I agree with a lot of what Cyclops is saying by the way, but it just seems a bit one sided, when you have to acknowledge there are plenty of positives to go with the negatives in the original post.
When looking with your betting eyes, he shouldn't be a 6/1 shot, and bookies shouldn't be shortening him for what appear to be struggles against below par opposition.
If he was about the same price as Road to Riches or Valseur Lido (20/1), lots would be on here saying he is a great bet at the prices against as he's young and open to improvement, against a potenital non stayer, a faller in the King George, a faller in the Argento and against a 10 year old. When a horse is a betting outsider, we tend to be a lot less harsh on them, and focus on the positives more.
We try and stay as objective as possible, but when odds, money and gambling are involved, price is the dominant factor on how we discuss horses imo
When looking with your betting eyes, he shouldn't be a 6/1 shot, and bookies shouldn't be shortening him for what appear to be struggles against below par opposition.
If he was about the same price as Road to Riches or Valseur Lido (20/1), lots would be on here saying he is a great bet at the prices against as he's young and open to improvement, against a potenital non stayer, a faller in the King George, a faller in the Argento and against a 10 year old. When a horse is a betting outsider, we tend to be a lot less harsh on them, and focus on the positives more.
We try and stay as objective as possible, but when odds, money and gambling are involved, price is the dominant factor on how we discuss horses imo
should any of the top four or five in the betting be the price that they are,they all seem to have plenty of negatives against them
I remember a few years ago a poster on here posted up something along the lines of what Cyclops did above with the negative tone running through it.
He then immediately posted a response to his own post but with a positive slant running through it, it highlighted both sides perfectly.
I can't remember who it was put think it may have concerned a horse in the Arc, it was from a good 5-10 years ago, perhaps someone can recall it.
It was a brilliant couple of posts.
He then immediately posted a response to his own post but with a positive slant running through it, it highlighted both sides perfectly.
I can't remember who it was put think it may have concerned a horse in the Arc, it was from a good 5-10 years ago, perhaps someone can recall it.
It was a brilliant couple of posts.
Gazo
I think the only horse accurately priced out of those is Cue Card.
Rest are all too short imo.
I think the only horse accurately priced out of those is Cue Card.
Rest are all too short imo.
Budd, the book balances at 100% on here. How can they all, other than Cue Card, be underpriced?
Well put it this way then........looking at the current prices the only one I would be interested in backing is Cue Card,and possibly Don Poli,although DP is probably too short on the formbook,hes the one I think could possibly be around the right price cos hes bloody hard to figure out!!
Budd, the book balances at 100% on here. How can they all, other than Cue Card, be underpriced?
Is that a serious question? Your reply seems to imply you don't believe that possible as the book is around 100%
Is that a serious question? Your reply seems to imply you don't believe that possible as the book is around 100%
Don Poli is the one horse I would not like to see two lengths behind the leaders as they hit the hill if I ain't backed him.
The festival brings the best out of some horses and there are three two-times winners in the first half dozen in the betting.
With the doubts surrounding whether the other two will stay, I'm not at all surprised he is the price he is. In fact, I think if neither cue card or Vautour get up that hill, I think he is the most likely to pick up the pieces. It would become a brave man who lays him at much bigger than 7/1 imv.
With the doubts surrounding whether the other two will stay, I'm not at all surprised he is the price he is. In fact, I think if neither cue card or Vautour get up that hill, I think he is the most likely to pick up the pieces. It would become a brave man who lays him at much bigger than 7/1 imv.
I think he's a big, idle horse that just needs to be shaken and woken up and I think Cheltenham does that to him. He'll stay and he jumps well, not many of the others have those two going for them.
More a 'cult' of naysayers who seem determined to trot out the same 'form' shortcomings time after time as though those who think DP will win are blind.
I fancy Don Poli big time. Let's make no bones about it; not because he is a superstar but because Coneygree isn't running.
DP ticks all the right boxes; unbeaten, dual Chelters winner, sound jumper, needs a fast pace, produces his best in the Spring, and the only leading horse in the betting who will truly relish the trip!
Horses for courses and all that. Easy to pick holes in the leading protagonists in the market (they fall, haven't produced at Chelters, won't stay etc) and with the Irish form all over the place his latest narrow victory can be forgiven.
I think people underestimate Many Clouds. Very good horse and a GN winner off a crushing weight and extremely tough and gritty when in the finish.
Time will tell but for my money he is the soundest investment of all.
I fancy Don Poli big time. Let's make no bones about it; not because he is a superstar but because Coneygree isn't running.
DP ticks all the right boxes; unbeaten, dual Chelters winner, sound jumper, needs a fast pace, produces his best in the Spring, and the only leading horse in the betting who will truly relish the trip!
Horses for courses and all that. Easy to pick holes in the leading protagonists in the market (they fall, haven't produced at Chelters, won't stay etc) and with the Irish form all over the place his latest narrow victory can be forgiven.
I think people underestimate Many Clouds. Very good horse and a GN winner off a crushing weight and extremely tough and gritty when in the finish.
Time will tell but for my money he is the soundest investment of all.
I don't think Don Poli backers are blind when reading his form that is well below a top class chaser, because a horse with his profile wins the GC every couple of years, so yes he has a nice chance. But I think the backers are blind when placing the bets, the leading 1 is missing lads, clean up your monitors they're dusty, you're taking 6/1 not 16/1 
Enjoying this thread, cracking stuff all round from original post to the counter arguments.
I have nothing of value to add to this one, so excuse my intrusion. Do carry on.
I have nothing of value to add to this one, so excuse my intrusion. Do carry on.
Duffy, wasn't it about Sea The Stars? Possibly, Dancing Brave was in there as well. An article slagging DB and praising STS followed by one praising DB and slagging STS. It was very well done.
If Don Poli has the tactical speed to hold a decent position & he's within a couple of lengths turning for home then I think he'd win.
Whether he'll be able maintain a decent position is open to debate, especially on decent ground.
Theres been lots of talk about Don Cossack needing headgear but not about Don Poli,which somewhat surprises me.
Whether he'll be able maintain a decent position is open to debate, especially on decent ground.
Theres been lots of talk about Don Cossack needing headgear but not about Don Poli,which somewhat surprises me.
"Don Poli ticks all the right boxes".
Except the rather crucial one of having ever bettered a 160 rated horse, let alone 170 or 180!
Except the rather crucial one of having ever bettered a 160 rated horse, let alone 170 or 180!
the thought of dp ticking boxes reminds me of the opposable thumbs advert
Except the rather crucial one of having ever bettered a 160 rated horse, let alone 170 or 180!
You don't know if that's crucial yet. He has beat what is in front of him. I don't think a 180 or even 170 horse is in this field that will relish the trip and conditions. If DP produces a 165 that may be good enough frankly.
What is crucial is to win the GC you need a horse who can stay, jump and thrives around Cheltenham. I would say that discounts Vatour, Don Cossack and arguably Cue card (streches his stamina over 3m2f).
You don't know if that's crucial yet. He has beat what is in front of him. I don't think a 180 or even 170 horse is in this field that will relish the trip and conditions. If DP produces a 165 that may be good enough frankly.
What is crucial is to win the GC you need a horse who can stay, jump and thrives around Cheltenham. I would say that discounts Vatour, Don Cossack and arguably Cue card (streches his stamina over 3m2f).
He needs to stay but also needs to be good enough to hold a decent enough position it's simply just not about staying per se.....He needs to be effective in that class throughout otherwise the staying may well become redundant.
Augustine
10 Feb 16 22:23
Duffy, wasn't it about Sea The Stars? Possibly, Dancing Brave was in there as well. An article slagging DB and praising STS followed by one praising DB and slagging STS. It was very well done.
Yes I think you've got it there, wish I could remember who did it or if there was a copy somewhere, sure it was done by an eminent poster from back then and even though I can't remember who it was I've a hunch he's not about much now.
10 Feb 16 22:23
Duffy, wasn't it about Sea The Stars? Possibly, Dancing Brave was in there as well. An article slagging DB and praising STS followed by one praising DB and slagging STS. It was very well done.
Yes I think you've got it there, wish I could remember who did it or if there was a copy somewhere, sure it was done by an eminent poster from back then and even though I can't remember who it was I've a hunch he's not about much now.
Duffy,
How fast do you think they are gonna go in this race?
Even on decent ground they are hardly going at breakneck speed,we have two leading fancies with stamina doubts.
How fast do you think they are gonna go in this race?
Even on decent ground they are hardly going at breakneck speed,we have two leading fancies with stamina doubts.
The horse he reminds me of is Synchronised who did win a GC, admittedly a sub standard one. The line is that fine between dour stayer and getting outpaced and detached and Synchronised was a prime example in his GC win. LW was something similar 2 years ago but both were considered poor renewals. I reckon Mullins will have him put out the back with a view to him running on past beaten horses in the last half mile. If that's the case it's possible to make a strong case for him getting placed, however I think he will find one or two too good.
I do agree with the assertion that a performance in the low 170s may be enough to win this GC. There are holes in all the main protagonists which makes the race such a fascinating contest.
I think the opposite Trigger,think he will be off the pace,but not far back. And my gut feeling is he will keep his position.
If the race pushes him back so be iti,and he could struggle to figure,but I don't think that will be the plan.
More I think about this horse the more I think he's the one,along with Cue Card.
If the race pushes him back so be iti,and he could struggle to figure,but I don't think that will be the plan.
More I think about this horse the more I think he's the one,along with Cue Card.
Long time reader first time poster. Great OP, though I think Don Poli's position in the market is fair enough given the questions around all of the market principals. Think it is more of a question around the layers keeping him onside given he's won 3 grade 1s over fences. I'd also forgive his Punchestown run - from memory Don Cossack ran in the same race the year before and was well beaten.
I know everyone knows his run style but i couldn't back him at 6-1 pre race, he will surely trade much bigger in the run, especially with a smooth traveller like vautour in opposition will be shocked if he doesnt trade at least double his sp
^ Agreed - I don't fancy him at all but even his fans would surely expect bigger than 6-1 in-running? Seems the logical way to go if you fancy him...
Actually think the criticism is unfair.
Has run in four Grade 1 chases and won three of them. The other he DEFINITELY didn't give his running. Anyone who really thinks he did - and is therefore 6 lengths worse than Irish Cavalier - should be banned from all racecourses.
Has run 12 times, winning 8, finishing 2nd 3 times, and only time outside the first 2 was when he didn't give his running.
Has run twice at the Cheltenham Festival, winning both times.
I'm not on him but on that basis think he's deserving of plenty of respect and as someone else said, I wouldn't want to see him within a couple of lengths of mine as they start to climb the hill.
Has run in four Grade 1 chases and won three of them. The other he DEFINITELY didn't give his running. Anyone who really thinks he did - and is therefore 6 lengths worse than Irish Cavalier - should be banned from all racecourses.
Has run 12 times, winning 8, finishing 2nd 3 times, and only time outside the first 2 was when he didn't give his running.
Has run twice at the Cheltenham Festival, winning both times.
I'm not on him but on that basis think he's deserving of plenty of respect and as someone else said, I wouldn't want to see him within a couple of lengths of mine as they start to climb the hill.
Don Poli has not run against a horse of any Grade 1 form since winning the RSA last year eg Cue Card, Vautour, Djakadam or even RTR.
I don't think you can criticise a horse, but you can his price for a top class race. He's in deep waters and he's almost co-joined favourite..
Could we at least have an admission from DP supporters that his form does not entitle him to be 6/1.
I backed Don Poli at present price 6/1 after he won RSA last season in double with Douvan at 4/1. He certainly should be few points bigger on form this season, and think he will drift before day if all show. Hoping Vautour shows as bigger single bets on him fwiw.
Just hope they all show could be best Gold Cup for many years imo.
He could well be too short,but I do think a lot struggle to work him out including the bookies!!
Personally I would feather back him at 6 then Vautour at his price.
I do take the point about in running price,but that's not my thing at the festival,I want to watch races like these without all that going on!!
Anyway as said before I think he will be positioned well throughout the race, so in running may not get any/ much bigger imo.
Personally I would feather back him at 6 then Vautour at his price.
I do take the point about in running price,but that's not my thing at the festival,I want to watch races like these without all that going on!!
Anyway as said before I think he will be positioned well throughout the race, so in running may not get any/ much bigger imo.
I don't think there's too much value in the 6/1 but you can pick holes about the first 6 in the market. If Cooper picks DP over DC then you would think he would shorten further - if it lashes down all week he could go off favourite!
I have to say I'm no fan of any particular horse as I'm far to mercenary for that, fwiw if it wasn't for the major doubt about the trip for Vautour I think he's the best horse in GC but that's another debate. I do also like DP he's not flash but he's 2 from 2 at the festival which no one can knock and for the DP cult there is one glimmer of hope in comparison to the over hyped DC. The facts are DP was a better novice chaser than DC.
Don Cossacks novice chase season
7 runs
2 wins, 1 grade one win
3 seconds
1 fourth
1 fall at Cheltenham
Ended the season rated 151
Don Polis novice chase season
4 runs
3 wins, 2 grade one wins
1 fifth
Ended the season rated 163
So all the cult members take comfort from the fact DP is the undoubted superior novice chaser to DC.
Don Cossacks novice chase season
7 runs
2 wins, 1 grade one win
3 seconds
1 fourth
1 fall at Cheltenham
Ended the season rated 151
Don Polis novice chase season
4 runs
3 wins, 2 grade one wins
1 fifth
Ended the season rated 163
So all the cult members take comfort from the fact DP is the undoubted superior novice chaser to DC.
Sir Don has improved lumps since his novice days just look at his rating and all the 1s next to his name.
I like DP but he has onlly beat handicappers so far in his short career.
I like DP but he has onlly beat handicappers so far in his short career.
So DP can't improve? The facts are there DP was the better novice
Being a better novice means diddly and on DPs two runs this season i can't see much improvement if any.
The thing with DP is that because he manages to win despite having to come under pressure, his supporters see him as some sort of tough guy that will always find away, a grisly old street fighter, they think he is giant's causeway.
His detractors simply see him struggling to beat many clouds and FL.
His detractors simply see him struggling to beat many clouds and FL.
It might mean diddly to you but it's a fact and I'm pretty sure he'd beat the likes of Texas Jack, Roi Du Mee, Boston Bob, Texas Jack as the mighty DC did. DC best form is a beating of CC who obviously wasn't at his best and Djakadam + RTR who may have been over the top? DP followers may be a cult but some of DC followers have delusions of grandeur about the horse imo.
in other words, 'I plod on' cult imagine that he'll though it out against any horse, while the rest don't have that kind of imagination.
Sir Don fans follow facts in that he posted one or two performance which made him the top rated chaser of last season with every rating organization in the country. Yet we are accused of having delusions about the horse.
Imagination vs Facts? You have to pay 6/1 for first and 9/2 for the latter.
Sir Don fans follow facts in that he posted one or two performance which made him the top rated chaser of last season with every rating organization in the country. Yet we are accused of having delusions about the horse.
Imagination vs Facts? You have to pay 6/1 for first and 9/2 for the latter.
Well the fact that it was being mentioned that DC possibly could be held in the same regards as Kauto or Dessie then to me that's delusional. DC has won 5 Grade1s but two of his biggest tests at Grade 1 in the KG and SA were unlucky falls Unlucky because his jumping is suspect under pressure?
Unlucky because his jumping is suspect under pressure?
One other thing about DC top rating which can't be argued about but it would be interesting if they had a course specific rating? I'd love to see his Cheltenham one?
DC is not in the same league as KS - he might be on the way but he's to win the CGC 1st, then the KG, and repeat this 2 more times to be considered.
Regards DP, what has DP beaten? The best of all was Apache Stronghold who was thrashed by Vautour in the JLT; First Lieutenant, beaten 1/2 a length by DP, has not won since Aintree in April 2013; I think if DP was not owned by Gigginstown he'd have run in the Lexus, the KG, definitely the Irish Gold Cup last week, and his true potential/rating will be known by now rather than at Cheltenham next month; on known performance DP is at least one stone behind DC, and that is generous, sorry DP fans!
Regards DP, what has DP beaten? The best of all was Apache Stronghold who was thrashed by Vautour in the JLT; First Lieutenant, beaten 1/2 a length by DP, has not won since Aintree in April 2013; I think if DP was not owned by Gigginstown he'd have run in the Lexus, the KG, definitely the Irish Gold Cup last week, and his true potential/rating will be known by now rather than at Cheltenham next month; on known performance DP is at least one stone behind DC, and that is generous, sorry DP fans!
Feb 12, 2016 -- 1:48PM, slowerthanjohn wrote:
Well the fact that it was being mentioned that DC possibly could be held in the same regards as Kauto or Dessie then to me that's delusional. DC has won 5 Grade1s but two of his biggest tests at Grade 1 in the KG and SA were unlucky falls Unlucky because his jumping is suspect under pressure?
You were the one comparing them and telling us how Don hasn't won the amount of big races. I only responded to that and said that in form terms he's posted 2 performances that were 10 lb of Kauto best performance and only 5lb from Dessie. And they're more similar than you think, Kauto fell just as much as Don, their winning rate is exactly the same 61% and it took Dessie ages to win his first GC. Its not delusional, they are facts. Don only has to win in March before you'll be left short of arguments against him, otherwise he's a grand horse and one of the best staying chasers since Kauto. His only shortcoming is his age as it took him very long to arrive at his best but his career out of novice company in the last 2 season is filled with 1s.
Sorry tim look at the DC thread cyclops says he can be mentioned with Kauto, Dessie. One win in March? ha ha get real how many KGs did those two win? Sometimes I think the official handicapper over rates these horses and that maybe the case with DC? But one GC win and he's one of the greats DC is a grand horse but don't believe hype.
DC is a grand horse but don't believe hype.
Cyclops referred to the Cheltenham record of some horses not being great but still being held in high regard, he made no comparison with Kauto or Dessie, only mentioned them as great horses that weren't able to dominate Chelt. You then came on and made direct comparisons to which I've responded.
As for overrating DC you're clearly out of the loop as he could've easily been given a 5 pounds higher figure for what he did at Aintree. Timeform, Racing Post and official handicappers all had him as best staying chaser in the country and by those figures the best one since Kauto. Its experts opinion vs yours.
As for overrating DC you're clearly out of the loop as he could've easily been given a 5 pounds higher figure for what he did at Aintree. Timeform, Racing Post and official handicappers all had him as best staying chaser in the country and by those figures the best one since Kauto. Its experts opinion vs yours.
At Aintree?? he beat an out of sorts Cue Card if that form is so solid how come DC if he had stood up wouldn't have beaten CC by 20l+ the mighty John's Spirit in 3rd!!!! I may well be out of the loop but I think some of the figures they come up with are fantasy, in my out of the loop opinion. At one point on the flat Golden Horn wasn't far off Frankel
The facts are the biggest of stages DC has yet to prove himself mostly because of his unlucky jumping, roll on March 18th I'm just waiting for the excuses!
if that form is so solid how come DC if he had stood up wouldn't have beaten CC by 20l+ the mighty John's Spirit in 3rd!!!! I may well be out of the loop but I think some of the figures they come up with are fantasy, in my out of the loop opinion. At one point on the flat Golden Horn wasn't far off FrankelThe facts are the biggest of stages DC has yet to prove himself mostly because of his unlucky jumping, roll on March 18th I'm just waiting for the excuses!
it seems your not out of loop of how handicapping works, but you're also confused on how each horse can put a different performance in two different races. Comparing Don at Aintree where he was near unstoppable with the KG run in which he didn't travelled at all, is naive to say the least but even so he was getting the better of CC when falling 2 out.
As for big stages there've been plenty of much inferior horses to win at Chelt, it all depends on opposition and how a horse deals with it. To go back on topic, Don Poli has beat horses in the RSA that haven't won a single race since, thats called a very weak renewal and if my imagination was as big as his cult followers I'd be inclined to back him at any price thinking he'll pull it out again against almost 2 stone better horses.
As for big stages there've been plenty of much inferior horses to win at Chelt, it all depends on opposition and how a horse deals with it. To go back on topic, Don Poli has beat horses in the RSA that haven't won a single race since, thats called a very weak renewal and if my imagination was as big as his cult followers I'd be inclined to back him at any price thinking he'll pull it out again against almost 2 stone better horses.
Not the only one who is confused, CC at Aintree was underperforming as in the summer CT did a procedure which has seen CC come back to his best, unstoppable against out of form horses no doubt! Why didn't travel? the other horses going to fast for him maybe? Because at the very top level his lots of????????????????
I'm not saying DP will win but one fact with your bible of official marks he was still a better novice chaser than DC fact even in my confused and out of the loopiness
I'm not saying DP will win but one fact with your bible of official marks he was still a better novice chaser than DC fact even in my confused and out of the loopiness
That was the impressive thing for me in the KG, he was on and off the bridal whilst CC and even more so Vautour were moving far easier yet it still wasn't enough to see him off, his class kept him handy enough for his stamina to be effective...all in all it was a bloody shame he fell on his aris really.
Contrast him with say SP who was running in the best race he'd ever contested and although stays further had his tanks well and truly emptied through the race trying to go their pace.
Contrast him with say SP who was running in the best race he'd ever contested and although stays further had his tanks well and truly emptied through the race trying to go their pace.
Exactly, you've used the novice mark of Dons to prove a point and now you're dismissing any sort of ratings because it doesn't suit your argument. Sir Don has come on plenty from his novice days and that can be easily seen in his form. Poli in his open season struggled to beat a 10yo and the GN winner who is a classy sort but still over 3 miles he should've stamped his class much easier than he did.
agree @duffy, thats the impressive bit about him but that KG performance resembled nothing of what he did at Aintree.
agree @duffy, thats the impressive bit about him but that KG performance resembled nothing of what he did at Aintree.
Like an out of sorts CC at Aintree doesn't suit yours!
Hopefully, all will be settled in 5 weeks' time between the two Dons and others - what a wonderful asset time is!
I really hope that DC gets round for a start so there's none of this oh yeah he'd have won 10l.
Feb 12, 2016 -- 3:30PM, slowerthanjohn wrote:
Like an out of sorts CC at Aintree doesn't suit yours!
Not exactly, as I've explained on Don Cossack thread, that Aintree performance is under-rated by 5-10 pounds. Its not only about Cue Card, but all the rating organizations took the view that every single horse in behind: CC, Johns Spirit, CF, AF, Simply Ned, Wishful T. ran between 15 and 25 pounds below their best. You know how rare is that in a top class race 90% of the horses run so much below par? It happens like maybe once per season. What you saw in the KG was nothing like, and this season he seems a changed horse with his laziness coming through in his last 2 races but for a GC test that can only be a good thing.
John's Spirit now rated 145. Was he a little bit lazy in the Ryanair?
Anyway like I say I really hope he stands up in the GC and then we'll see.
now rated 145. Was he a little bit lazy in the Ryanair?Anyway like I say I really hope he stands up in the GC and then we'll see.
Another difference I think with the laziness is that I think that DC responds pretty quickly when the jockey asks him, DP takes longer.
clutching at straws @john, JS was 160 rated that season almost won the PP GC carrying top weight and wasn't far away in the KG.
Slower
i am sure an excuse could be found for Sir Dons poor Ryanair run just like you have given for all Cue Cards
i am sure an excuse could be found for Sir Dons poor Ryanair run just like you have given for all Cue Cards
I'm not making excuses for CC I'm only stating what I thought was common knowledge?
Wetherby ( 24 Sft ,RPR170 )
After last year when \bCue Card\p was troubled by a trapped epiglottis, which was so bad he could hardly trot up our gallop without gurgling, it is wonderful to see him back to something like his best. We brought him in a month early this time and he´s been brilliant all the way through. We couldn´t risk bringing him here unless we were convinced he was fit. He´s in the Hennessy, and on Tuesday morning he´ll also be entered in the Betfair Chase, so we´ve got options - Colin Tizzard, trainer.
There are enough for you to make excuses for DC for the Ryanair he seems to have plenty when gets beaten apart from he's simply not good enough. The KG that John's Spirit ran okay in was hardly a classic renewal?
When it comes to the crunch personally don't think DC winning form adds up to much, some of the horses he's beat are woeful and on 3 big occasions in the Ryanair, the KG and the Sun Alliance he's come up short. Just think he's a flat track bully and until he wins a KG or GC I won't change my mind. When the going gets tough DC gets done.
Wetherby ( 24 Sft ,RPR170 )
After last year when \bCue Card\p was troubled by a trapped epiglottis, which was so bad he could hardly trot up our gallop without gurgling, it is wonderful to see him back to something like his best. We brought him in a month early this time and he´s been brilliant all the way through. We couldn´t risk bringing him here unless we were convinced he was fit. He´s in the Hennessy, and on Tuesday morning he´ll also be entered in the Betfair Chase, so we´ve got options - Colin Tizzard, trainer.
There are enough for you to make excuses for DC for the Ryanair he seems to have plenty when gets beaten apart from he's simply not good enough. The KG that John's Spirit ran okay in was hardly a classic renewal?
When it comes to the crunch personally don't think DC winning form adds up to much, some of the horses he's beat are woeful and on 3 big occasions in the Ryanair, the KG and the Sun Alliance he's come up short. Just think he's a flat track bully and until he wins a KG or GC I won't change my mind. When the going gets tough DC gets done.
The operation didn't transformed him into a wonder horse, he always was a top class performer, that operation only helped him with staying trips as at the end of 3 miles he chocked. No one wants you to change your mind, its a discussion where the best argument prevails. You came forward with some sketchy ones denigrating Don's form and accusing all the rating organizations forgetting that in your initial post you were applauding them and pointing fingers at the novice ratings of Poli and Cossack. You can't have it both ways.
So you just dismiss a Punchestown Gold Cup a race the great Kauto Star tried and failed in.
All Cue Card has done is smashed up the same old grade 2 two an half milers that Conti normally does.Cue Card has failed more times than Sir Don on the big stage,Supreme Arkle also thrashed in three King George's until he burgled one.
Yes he is a good horse but Sir Don holds him on all form especially that King George run.
All Cue Card has done is smashed up the same old grade 2 two an half milers that Conti normally does.Cue Card has failed more times than Sir Don on the big stage,Supreme Arkle also thrashed in three King George's until he burgled one.
Yes he is a good horse but Sir Don holds him on all form especially that King George run.
Where does this Sir Don business come from? Pretty quick journey to the poor house getting emotionally involved in that way. You can debate it both ways regarding the King George but to say anything definitively like "especially" about the race is too much in my view. Cue Card is clearly a different horse this year. Beating John's Spirit by a few lengths in that Aintree race is illustrative enough of that.
"Sir Don holds him on all form especially that King George run."
Just LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
Just LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL
Not sure why the Supreme and Arkle are getting mentioned,hardly big failures,especially finishing 2nd to Sprinter over 2 miles!!
Also a tad confused re DC holding CC on all form especially the KG??
CC wins and DC falls when in 3rd place and no way of knowing what would have happened had he not fallen.
I know which one I would rather have in the Gold Cup, especially at the prices.
The one whose favourite track is Cheltenham.
DC is obviously a big danger though, his ratings consistently achieved tell us that, but this CC is a different horse this season.
Also a tad confused re DC holding CC on all form especially the KG??
CC wins and DC falls when in 3rd place and no way of knowing what would have happened had he not fallen.
I know which one I would rather have in the Gold Cup, especially at the prices.
The one whose favourite track is Cheltenham.
DC is obviously a big danger though, his ratings consistently achieved tell us that, but this CC is a different horse this season.
The question that always spins in my mind when posters seem to be so incredibly intent on winning arguments by points about the relative merits of horses is whether the same posters have confidence in their own reading of the form book. It just seems odd to write so many argumentative posts and replies if you actually believe what you're writing! This is a game of opinions, so I think it's unreasonable to expect to sway someone with an argument when they clearly view the same form lines differently.
For what it's worth, I don't think either of the Dons win this Gold Cup.
For what it's worth, I don't think either of the Dons win this Gold Cup
.
That is the point bud. A different horse THIS season. People become set in their ways when opposing horses and stubbornly don't back down. Also, these same ilk are keen to continue backing horses who have consistently failed them.
Be wrong, its fine. Just don't be wrong over and over when there is no need to be.
Be wrong, its fine. Just don't be wrong over and over when there is no need to be.
CC always a high class horse but over staying trips he chocked near the end, at least thats what his trainer keeps saying. The wind op and the fact that he relaxes more this season means he handles 3 miles better but stamina concerns for the GC trip still exist - not from his connections but with some punters. Thats right he failed and failed over and over in the KG, yet some people still were on him this time around. I guess new evidence like his Betfair Chase performance meant those people could still hold faith.
timtin I don't want it both ways, all I was saying that the DP cult could take comfort in the fact DP was a better novice chaser regardless of what official mark he had, he achieved more that's hard to argue.
Official ratings have CC 176 DC 175 Vautour 174 Djakadam 170 DP 167 so even on that DC isn't the top. Marks are only expert opinions are open to errors personally in a GC I wouldn't look at the OR it wouldn't come into my consideration. I just don't think DC form is that much to write home about, the Aintree form I treat with utter caution as CC did not run to his best and if you think he did you are kidding yourself. No doubt his Punchestown form is by far his best performance but imo Punchestown form sometimes can be slightly dubious because some horses are over the top.
The jasey comment
"Sir Don holds him on all form especially that King George run."
That's convinced me DC is the best horse and I apologise for ever thinking otherwise.
Official ratings have CC 176 DC 175 Vautour 174 Djakadam 170 DP 167 so even on that DC isn't the top. Marks are only expert opinions are open to errors personally in a GC I wouldn't look at the OR it wouldn't come into my consideration. I just don't think DC form is that much to write home about, the Aintree form I treat with utter caution as CC did not run to his best and if you think he did you are kidding yourself. No doubt his Punchestown form is by far his best performance but imo Punchestown form sometimes can be slightly dubious because some horses are over the top.
The jasey comment
"Sir Don holds him on all form especially that King George run."
That's convinced me DC is the best horse and I apologise for ever thinking otherwise.
Eternal you're a ballax,ye got there b4 me,this SIR business must come from the same ejits that christened that other ejit from ATR,not aftertiming but had 40/1 winner £10er ew in 3m graded hurdle sp 14/1 trained by FAHY I think and GODS OWN £20ew @ 25/1 and then 20/22 @50 and 20/22 @ 5.5/6 2pl both these with BF at PUNCHESTOWN GODS OWN that is the 1st with BV the reason behind these bets were never travelled to the festivals those year's and thought as others have done that horses can be over the top come PUNCHESTOWN so there may be credence in the argument about the SIR'S end of season form,and if I have to can cut'n'paste the god's own thing only not tonight dying with the cold and enjoying the hot BUSHMILLS
I'm drinking Elijah Craig so I understood every word of that.
Cumon the "Sir Don" is just a bit of fun.
Slower: no need to apologise you have been Donverted and seen the light nothing wrong with that.
OK some of the stuff i put about Cue Card is just mischief making but i still can't have him and i expect his well to be dry come GC day although i do think he should be fav.
The only horse i fear is the mighty Vautour.
Slower: no need to apologise you have been Donverted and seen the light nothing wrong with that.
OK some of the stuff i put about Cue Card is just mischief making but i still can't have him and i expect his well to be dry come GC day although i do think he should be fav.
The only horse i fear is the mighty Vautour.
Maybe jasey but an awful lot of skin is placed in the game when you personalise it? How often have we heard of people following a specific horse over a cliff? To quote from De Niro in Heat (kind of) never have so much emotional involvement that at any point you can't walk away.
Big fan of the poli simply becauce I backed him at 14/1 for the Martin Pipe and again last year for the RSA. If there is a cult around it has to be Don Cossack, has never won at Cheltenham, his extradionary rating is based on Aintree and Punchestown, love his followers after the King George, if he stayed up he'd have won, but he didn't, jumping is the name of the game. If the Poli is there at the bottom of the hill with a chance he'll come up it the best, have a look at both his wins especially when he hits the hill.
I think the race was conclusive.
Some of these posters may need to look at their views afresh.
Some of these posters may need to look at their views afresh.
It's a shame the race was inconclusive,after never been put in the race Don poli finished full of running up the hill,for what it's worth I backed both the don s!
He was always going to finish full of running up the hill.
He simply never had the pace to get competitive unfortunately.
He simply never had the pace to get competitive unfortunately.
He may well not have but what does a jockey do to encourage a horse? I repeat O'Leary described him as a big lazy bugger. Look at his previous races. The horse takes the mickey out of his jockey. Look at when he beat Many Clouds. He was being pushed and shoved for a mile before laughing at that horse in the last furlong. I don't recall any of his winning races where the jockey hasn't had to encourage him to switch on. The issue being raised is Russell sitting still throughout the race until it was way too late. That can work for some horses. Not this one.
And I was one of those who was convinced the horse would lack tactical speed to do the job. I never for one minute thought he'd be jumped off at the back and left there.
And I was one of those who was convinced the horse would lack tactical speed to do the job. I never for one minute thought he'd be jumped off at the back and left there.
The issue being raised is Russell sitting still throughout the race until it was way too late.
I disagree with this. He is asking the horse plenty early enough imo. He isnt sitting still from about a mile and a half out.
I disagree with this. He is asking the horse plenty early enough imo. He isnt sitting still from about a mile and a half out.
The difference this time was that for once he had proper grade 1 horses in front of him with more class to boot and equal amounts of stamina (certainly in DC's case) to get by, so although he made ground, it had little effect.
If Russell had spent the whole race pushing and shoving him non stop, which is what he would have had to do to keep tabs, he'd have bottomed him when the race really started anyway, all horses have their comfort zone to race at (monkey or not) force him the whole way and he'd have been fooked.
If he'd have had the likes of many clouds to catch he'd have been plenty close enough and with the exact same ride would have had Russell nudging him past to victory with all his fans saying bravo Don Poli, only does just enough.
If Russell had spent the whole race pushing and shoving him non stop, which is what he would have had to do to keep tabs, he'd have bottomed him when the race really started anyway, all horses have their comfort zone to race at (monkey or not) force him the whole way and he'd have been fooked.
If he'd have had the likes of many clouds to catch he'd have been plenty close enough and with the exact same ride would have had Russell nudging him past to victory with all his fans saying bravo Don Poli, only does just enough.
Spot on Duffy.
I think that was Don Polis best performance to date as well.
I think that was Don Polis best performance to date as well.
There was a point on the 2nd circuit where the pace steadied and the ones behind including DP momentarily closed, I bet at that point his supporters all thought "here he comes", the trouble was dc and djak, were too classy to get back.
Agree with jasey he ran his race, but he would have been killed trying to go the early pace and would have been beat out of sight , on his own was outpaced from the word go remember with his jockey trying to lay up with them, even brennan decided to lay off from it for a good while.
Agree with jasey he ran his race, but he would have been killed trying to go the early pace and would have been beat out of sight , on his own was outpaced from the word go remember with his jockey trying to lay up with them, even brennan decided to lay off from it for a good while.
Smad Place is another example,a very similar thing happened to him as what he suffered in the KG, although this time he led he was still going faster than he was comfortable with and this impacted on him late on, yes he stays but he was still going backwards at a rate of knots at the end, why?, because he was emptied through the race being forced to run faster than he was comfortable with and it hurt him, just like the KG.
The class of DC was able to lay up with the pace, stay there and then finish it off.
Russell got DP precisely as close as any jockey would have done, that's as good as he is.
The class of DC was able to lay up with the pace, stay there and then finish it off.
Russell got DP precisely as close as any jockey would have done, that's as good as he is.
I suggest some of you go and have a look at the ride McCoy gave a very similar type in Synchronised. The horse was never in his comfort zone with McCoy always several lengths off the pace but constantly nudging and pushing the horse and thus coming down the hill close enough to go by when the horses stamina kicked in. I can understand people saying Russell rode the right race even if I disagree with them but I simply cannot accept what the evidence of my eyes tells me and that is that it was a quiet ride which is the exact opposite of what the horse needs. Coming down the hill for the last time is when Russell starts to get serious with the horse. I'd have thought given he was running alongside the stone inferior Irish Cavalier that alarm bells would have been running much earlier than that. Jumping the horse off at the back had nothing to do with lack of pace and everything to do with a judgement call.
He thought about the Lord Windermere race I bet,Eeternaloptimist you sum it up perfectly,never got stuck into the horse and all these people saying it would have finished like o'faiolins boy and smad place are simply guessing,as are we but they should have found out.
be interesting to see Poli at Liverpool. Running apparently.
Yesterday presumably saw the end of any pretensions held by supporters that Don Poli is top class. "He's slow' from his new trainer summed it all up.
Thinking about this horse and my reason to instigate this thread, led me to some thoughts which I shall share.
This is not to gloat - strongly opposing a 9/2 shot can hardly be termed a major coup. More, I'm thinking that the incomprehensible support he received ties in with the spirit of the age.
Michael Gove's famous, pre referendum quote, "we've had enough of experts" summed up what others have referred to as the"post-factual age", one where sound and fury extinguishes logical argument. Where the screaming of the media - not only social media - convinces in blind disregard of facts. A world where Brexit supporters reckon our population has 15% immigrants when it has 3%. Where they bay to "take control" yet hurl vile abuse at the judiciary when it does just that. A world where Donald Trump may become president. A world where people increasingly stick their fingers in their ears, not wanting to hear anything that ruffles their well worn prejudices.
I was struck on my way to Warwick on Friday by the staggering ignorance displayed on a local radio phone-in concerning the judicial decision on Brexit procedures. Yes, those selected to appear may be those expected to provoke a reaction, but it was not the positions of those who spoke that astonished me, but the failure to be able to engage in any dialogue without resorting to random abuse of positions which those they were abusing had never even taken up.
Some of those people, perhaps, backed a horse demonstrably unsuited to racing in the top class for the Gold Cup, but more astonishing was that Pa... Po... had Bryan Cooper odds on to choose him over Don Cossack, Cooper himself appeared to be dithering and Channel 4 agonised over his "nightmare decision". Many of life's decisions cannot be taken by looking at facts and often facts are unclear. But my experience of the cult of Don Poli shows me that there are times when they do stare you in the face and you can gain a distinct advantage over those who disregard them. Only which I'd been bolder. As my old trainer used to say, "You'd only have to KNOW once".
Thinking about this horse and my reason to instigate this thread, led me to some thoughts which I shall share.
This is not to gloat - strongly opposing a 9/2 shot can hardly be termed a major coup. More, I'm thinking that the incomprehensible support he received ties in with the spirit of the age.
Michael Gove's famous, pre referendum quote, "we've had enough of experts" summed up what others have referred to as the"post-factual age", one where sound and fury extinguishes logical argument. Where the screaming of the media - not only social media - convinces in blind disregard of facts. A world where Brexit supporters reckon our population has 15% immigrants when it has 3%. Where they bay to "take control" yet hurl vile abuse at the judiciary when it does just that. A world where Donald Trump may become president. A world where people increasingly stick their fingers in their ears, not wanting to hear anything that ruffles their well worn prejudices.
I was struck on my way to Warwick on Friday by the staggering ignorance displayed on a local radio phone-in concerning the judicial decision on Brexit procedures. Yes, those selected to appear may be those expected to provoke a reaction, but it was not the positions of those who spoke that astonished me, but the failure to be able to engage in any dialogue without resorting to random abuse of positions which those they were abusing had never even taken up.
Some of those people, perhaps, backed a horse demonstrably unsuited to racing in the top class for the Gold Cup, but more astonishing was that Pa... Po... had Bryan Cooper odds on to choose him over Don Cossack, Cooper himself appeared to be dithering and Channel 4 agonised over his "nightmare decision". Many of life's decisions cannot be taken by looking at facts and often facts are unclear. But my experience of the cult of Don Poli shows me that there are times when they do stare you in the face and you can gain a distinct advantage over those who disregard them. Only which I'd been bolder. As my old trainer used to say, "You'd only have to KNOW once".
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