Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
I don't know who will win the Gold Cup, though I have my opinions and I can present an argument as to why I think I'm right, as can those who support most of the others at the top of the market.
Yet, with Don Poli, followers seem to be akin to those belonging to a religious cult; "He only ever does just enough and will do just enough regardless of who he's against" is their cry. If we examine the evidence for this claim, there doesn't seem to be any, but 6/1 for the Gold Cup seems to be based on this strange view.
The one performance he's given which propelled him to his lofty position in the market, the RSA, saw him stride clear, winning by six lengths. Impressive, indeed, despite running lazily for a spell around halfway, though no evidence that he only does enough. However, you have to examine the strength of a race to really appreciate the merit of the form and the fact is that it turns out to have been one of the weakest RSA's on record. Other than DP, a single winner since has come from the race (if In Doubt) and that was off a handicap mark of 140.
Punchestown has been ignored by followers, but why should it be? It was only his fourth run of the campaign, six weeks after Cheltenham, which couldn't be called a hard race, and Mullins was flying. Don Poli looked to be beaten because he was slow and a disappointed Mullins said nothing of him being over the top, simply that the ground may have been too fast for him.
And so to this season. A four length win over the increasingly slow Many Clouds, receiving five pounds. Supporters disappointed? Not a bit of it. He shortens for the Gold Cup. Ah yes, he needed the race; let's forget the painfully long time it took him to master the runner-up.
Leopardstown, after which I imagined he'd drift to 20/1 as his ideal conditions saw him struggle home against the third division. No, he shortens again! Regardless of the obvious disappointment from both Mullins and Cooper and the desperate scramble to the line, the "he only ever does enough" brigade get their trumpets out, losing all sight of the fact that his form places him around 20lbs below a Gold Cup winner. A run that would have been seen as unacceptable by any other market leader is held up as proof that he's the second coming. First Lieutenant chaps! and Foxrock! Or maybe On His Own has sprouted wings?
Lines through First Lieutenant and Many Clouds place Don Poli between 9 and 19 pounds behind Smad Place, who struggled in the King George. As DP hasn't yet raced against a top class opponent, there are few other lines that relate.
Does anyone know of any horse that gives credence to the DP war cry? Any horse, ever, who beats 150 rated horses after a struggle but can then beat 170/180 horses as well?
Yet, with Don Poli, followers seem to be akin to those belonging to a religious cult; "He only ever does just enough and will do just enough regardless of who he's against" is their cry. If we examine the evidence for this claim, there doesn't seem to be any, but 6/1 for the Gold Cup seems to be based on this strange view.
The one performance he's given which propelled him to his lofty position in the market, the RSA, saw him stride clear, winning by six lengths. Impressive, indeed, despite running lazily for a spell around halfway, though no evidence that he only does enough. However, you have to examine the strength of a race to really appreciate the merit of the form and the fact is that it turns out to have been one of the weakest RSA's on record. Other than DP, a single winner since has come from the race (if In Doubt) and that was off a handicap mark of 140.
Punchestown has been ignored by followers, but why should it be? It was only his fourth run of the campaign, six weeks after Cheltenham, which couldn't be called a hard race, and Mullins was flying. Don Poli looked to be beaten because he was slow and a disappointed Mullins said nothing of him being over the top, simply that the ground may have been too fast for him.
And so to this season. A four length win over the increasingly slow Many Clouds, receiving five pounds. Supporters disappointed? Not a bit of it. He shortens for the Gold Cup. Ah yes, he needed the race; let's forget the painfully long time it took him to master the runner-up.
Leopardstown, after which I imagined he'd drift to 20/1 as his ideal conditions saw him struggle home against the third division. No, he shortens again! Regardless of the obvious disappointment from both Mullins and Cooper and the desperate scramble to the line, the "he only ever does enough" brigade get their trumpets out, losing all sight of the fact that his form places him around 20lbs below a Gold Cup winner. A run that would have been seen as unacceptable by any other market leader is held up as proof that he's the second coming. First Lieutenant chaps! and Foxrock! Or maybe On His Own has sprouted wings?
Lines through First Lieutenant and Many Clouds place Don Poli between 9 and 19 pounds behind Smad Place, who struggled in the King George. As DP hasn't yet raced against a top class opponent, there are few other lines that relate.
Does anyone know of any horse that gives credence to the DP war cry? Any horse, ever, who beats 150 rated horses after a struggle but can then beat 170/180 horses as well?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 116
|
By:
i think hes more like a 12 or 14/1 shot on the day if the priniples turn up
i think he will need it heavy to win which is unlikley |
|
By:
Interesting post cyclops. I was a big fan of the horse last season and he was my biggest winner at the Festival. I simply didn't buy WPM's 4 miler theory when he looked such a classy performer as a staying novice and so it proved. Punchestown was a bit of a warning shot and this season, he has not progressed. I wonder if he is a bit of a thinker? I wouldn't be touching him at Cheltenham but it may be that the place lights him up. We don't have long to wait to find out.
|
|
By:
Great post cyclops.
|
|
By:
he just seems very well suited to racing at cheltenham,probally more due to how the races are run at a faster pace than the course but if he is good enough we will only find out in march
|
|
By:
Good post still wouldn't mind owning him loved him last year good bet in the rsa chase on him was disappointed with him at xmas if the go the gallop like last years gold cup could be in trouble early doors
|
|
By:
Im not in the Don Poli 'cult' and wouldnt be backing him for the GC myself, but think this is a bit harsh myself. You can't honestly believe that Punchestwon run was his true running, can you? To suggest that was his true form and he he finished last just because he is slow is plain wrong to my eyes.
If you draw a line through that run, and I think any of his fans are justified in doing so, he's unbeaten over fences, so its pretty hard to know just how good he is. |
|
By:
" Valseur Lido probably just preferred that ground better than Don Poli, who it was maybe too fast for. I think Don Poli wants a longer trip - the Gold Cup is a fair long trip with the pace they go"
Those were Mullins words after Punchestown. No suggestion there that he didn't run his race. |
|
By:
By the same token it's hard to argue with someone who questions a 4 length beating of many clouds getting weight! or a 1/2 length beating of FL who says that that form is a million miles away from GC winning form, that form doesn't make him 6/1.
|
|
By:
You are trying to convince me by using a WPM quote
 So he beat Wounded Warrior comfortably in the RSA, then cant live with the same horse at Punch? WW is a pretty reliable yardstick imo and I know which run I would be considering DP's true form of the two. |
|
By:
duffy. As per my post, I wont be backing him for the GC, just trying to offer counter arguments for the debate.
|
|
By:
If you think Mullins doesn't know his horses, we may have to give up on this one.
|
|
By:
Fair dos CCM, rather you than me though, I have a hard enough job trying to offer a cogent argument for the horses I actually fancy without trying to do it for the ones I don't.
 |
|
By:
Cyclops. I am not for a second suggesting that WPM doesnt know his horses. But if you are trying to tell me to believe every word that comes out of his mouth, or take them at all at face value, then yes we might have to give up on this one. Especially after a defeat.
If you are also telling me you think Wounded Warrior, Apache Stronghold and Irish Cavalier are better horses than DP, then definitely we are! Haha, fair play duffy. |
|
By:
I'd always forgive a horse a bad run at Aintree or Punchestown after they'd ran at Cheltenham. For whatever reason I cannot believe DP ran to his true form at Punchestown. Of course WPM knows his horses but not many trainers know when there horses are over the top or admit it. Very good read cyclops think you should do one on Don Cossack because I'm definitely not in his cult!
|
|
By:
Think I might, slower, on the DC thread.
|
|
By:
1,500 available to LAY at 7.4 which begs the question why arent the naysayers all laying the heck out of it?
2nd season chasers are very dangerous in the GC. Not saying he will win it but I would rather be on a 2nd season chaser than anything else as they are open to any amount of improvement. Any horse, ever, who beats 150 rated horses after a struggle but can then beat 170/180 horses as well? probably loads... without even thinking hard I'd say Rock on Ruby, Finians Rainbow... blah blah blah |
|
By:
I'm more in the CCM camp with this one. Cyclops, I defintiely think you've got your Don Cossack glasses on when writing this, and I've said before, his fans are a lot more "cultish" than Don Poli's.
I have not backed Poli and have no intention too, but I think it's harsh not to give him one single positive, and focused purely on the negatives. The fact is he is 2 from 2 at Cheltenham, both on normal festival ground. He won the Martin Pipe off about 10 pounds higher than when Killutagh Vic and Sir Des Champs did when they won it. You do get a lot of strange form in staying chases in the winter in Ireland, so I wouldn't be taking his First Lieutenant run literally. Just look at Carlingford Lough improving stones the other day. Last year On His Own was beaten 79 lengths first time out by Road to Riches, and then got within a length next time in the Lexus. Lord Windermere was beaten out of sight in the winter in Ireland and then won a Gold Cup. Course form, on festival ground is a huge factor. I'm not saying ignore races all through the year, but I could reel off a load of positives and negatives for Vautour, Djakadam, Cue Card and Cossack too. |
|
By:
I am a fan of Don Poli. Not sure I would admit to being part of any cult but I do think he will win or go very close in the Gold Cup. I also agree there is little, or nothing, in the form book to say he wins the Gold Cup. I just feel he is a two time Festival winner who will relish the stamina test of a fast run and gruelling Gold Cup and I like what I see when I watch him running. I don't buy in to the argument he is slow. He won the Martin Pipe in a fast run race. I think he is made for this one. I guess I am placing my faith in what I see rather than the form book. Win or lose I will be back after the race !!!
 |
|
By:
Ming, neither of those examples hold water. And, as to his price holding up, there's only so much money most of us have to lay horses!
wellchief, no DC glasses on with this one. Happy to prove guilty to that charge overall but, even taking the great DC out of the equation, I find DP an extraordinary price. Yes, surprises happen; I would never say a horse "can't" win as the examples you quote underline how stupid that would be. And, yes, those gruelling Irish chases do throw up odd results. But aren't those conditions meant to be perfect for Don Poli? |
|
By:
wc - yes all horses can be given negatives but those horses even with their negatives are rated higher than dp and a few considerably so - and presumably the ratings attempt to take a balanced view and not glass half full nor half empty view. fwiw i thought the post was one of the most interesting posts i have read on here for some time - i appear to be one of the few that are completely unsure and open minded about dp - having read the post i am in exactly the same place - so for me it was designed more to illustrate that a glass half full approach rather than a balanced approach is needed to warrant placing him above not one but a number of higher rated horses.
|
|
By:
Think some are forgetting that the Gold Cup is just over 2 furlongs longer than 3m and has an uphill finish, conditions that should suit a horse like Don Poli.
Can I say the same about his main threats.......nope. Don't mean he will win of course, but it makes me very wary of not having him on my side. |
|
By:
I agree with a lot of what Cyclops is saying by the way, but it just seems a bit one sided, when you have to acknowledge there are plenty of positives to go with the negatives in the original post.
When looking with your betting eyes, he shouldn't be a 6/1 shot, and bookies shouldn't be shortening him for what appear to be struggles against below par opposition. If he was about the same price as Road to Riches or Valseur Lido (20/1), lots would be on here saying he is a great bet at the prices against as he's young and open to improvement, against a potenital non stayer, a faller in the King George, a faller in the Argento and against a 10 year old. When a horse is a betting outsider, we tend to be a lot less harsh on them, and focus on the positives more. We try and stay as objective as possible, but when odds, money and gambling are involved, price is the dominant factor on how we discuss horses imo |
|
By:
should any of the top four or five in the betting be the price that they are,they all seem to have plenty of negatives against them
|
|
By:
I remember a few years ago a poster on here posted up something along the lines of what Cyclops did above with the negative tone running through it.
He then immediately posted a response to his own post but with a positive slant running through it, it highlighted both sides perfectly. I can't remember who it was put think it may have concerned a horse in the Arc, it was from a good 5-10 years ago, perhaps someone can recall it. It was a brilliant couple of posts. |
|
By:
Gazo
I think the only horse accurately priced out of those is Cue Card. Rest are all too short imo. |
|
By:
Budd, the book balances at 100% on here. How can they all, other than Cue Card, be underpriced?
|
|
By:
Well put it this way then........looking at the current prices the only one I would be interested in backing is Cue Card,and possibly Don Poli,although DP is probably too short on the formbook,hes the one I think could possibly be around the right price cos hes bloody hard to figure out!!
|
|
By:
if that makes sense
|
|
By:
Budd, the book balances at 100% on here. How can they all, other than Cue Card, be underpriced?
Is that a serious question? Your reply seems to imply you don't believe that possible as the book is around 100% |
|
By:
Don Poli is the one horse I would not like to see two lengths behind the leaders as they hit the hill if I ain't backed him.
|
|
By:
The festival brings the best out of some horses and there are three two-times winners in the first half dozen in the betting.
With the doubts surrounding whether the other two will stay, I'm not at all surprised he is the price he is. In fact, I think if neither cue card or Vautour get up that hill, I think he is the most likely to pick up the pieces. It would become a brave man who lays him at much bigger than 7/1 imv. |
|
By:
I think he's a big, idle horse that just needs to be shaken and woken up and I think Cheltenham does that to him. He'll stay and he jumps well, not many of the others have those two going for them.
|
|
By:
More a 'cult' of naysayers who seem determined to trot out the same 'form' shortcomings time after time as though those who think DP will win are blind.
I fancy Don Poli big time. Let's make no bones about it; not because he is a superstar but because Coneygree isn't running. DP ticks all the right boxes; unbeaten, dual Chelters winner, sound jumper, needs a fast pace, produces his best in the Spring, and the only leading horse in the betting who will truly relish the trip! Horses for courses and all that. Easy to pick holes in the leading protagonists in the market (they fall, haven't produced at Chelters, won't stay etc) and with the Irish form all over the place his latest narrow victory can be forgiven. I think people underestimate Many Clouds. Very good horse and a GN winner off a crushing weight and extremely tough and gritty when in the finish. Time will tell but for my money he is the soundest investment of all. |
|
By:
I don't think Don Poli backers are blind when reading his form that is well below a top class chaser, because a horse with his profile wins the GC every couple of years, so yes he has a nice chance. But I think the backers are blind when placing the bets, the leading 1 is missing lads, clean up your monitors they're dusty, you're taking 6/1 not 16/1
|
|
By:
Enjoying this thread, cracking stuff all round from original post to the counter arguments.
I have nothing of value to add to this one, so excuse my intrusion. Do carry on. |
|
By:
Duffy, wasn't it about Sea The Stars? Possibly, Dancing Brave was in there as well. An article slagging DB and praising STS followed by one praising DB and slagging STS. It was very well done.
|
|
By:
If Don Poli has the tactical speed to hold a decent position & he's within a couple of lengths turning for home then I think he'd win.
Whether he'll be able maintain a decent position is open to debate, especially on decent ground. Theres been lots of talk about Don Cossack needing headgear but not about Don Poli,which somewhat surprises me. |
|
By:
"Don Poli ticks all the right boxes".
Except the rather crucial one of having ever bettered a 160 rated horse, let alone 170 or 180! |
|
By:
the thought of dp ticking boxes reminds me of the opposable thumbs advert
|