Cheltenham Festival
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2016 gold cup you decide
2016 gold cup you decide
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It's very unlikely RTR will head to the CGC after today's performance; the soft/heavy going stretched his stamina to the limit and being up with the pace from the off did not help either; the run of VL gave the KG form a boost but will VL go for the Ryanair along with RTR? I'd think so after today, the CGC is too hot a race for both VL and RTR I'd think.
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Its no surprise really is it, the King George is a key trial. I expect like others the form will look rather solid after the Gold Cup.
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B2W, I think it's difficult to say who would have won if Valseur Lido would have stood up.
I have no idea what the sectional times were, but I don't think Carlingford Lough accelerated passed them, he simply stayed on past knackered horses who were slowing with every stride. Valseur Lido was still full of running, who showed no signs of stopping, so I think Carlingford's burst at the finish, is a bit exaggerated by the fact RTR was almost going backwards. Based on that run, plus his run at Punchestown at the back end of last year, Valseur Lido is definitely a 3 miler. I had a go at Don Cossack for falling in the King George though, so I can't have double standards about Valseur. At the end of the day, it doesn't matter how well you travel or if you're on top, if you fall or unseat you don't deserve to win. |
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That's the beauty of the game chief. As I said on another thread I would have bet a finger the winner would have won anyway. Not an essential finger mind.
The way he was eating up the ground to me was impossible to resist, yes Ruby had not asked the question but they had went too quick and CL came from a mile back and absolutely pinged the last. Momentum is everything at the end of a race like that and it cannot just be switched on. |
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Would be surprised if any of the igc horses turned up to the cgc now. Clearly KG for red hot.
Also not great for DP supporters given relative performances of FL and Foxr. |
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I think they may have suffered for trying to win the Lexus.
Would be careful re DP and yesterday's race imo. |
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If you did use them,then RTR comes out a fair bit better than DP.
But of course CL was well beat in the Lexus!! |
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Don't know why anyone would try to assess the Lexus and yesterday's Irish Hennessy form too deeply in context to next month's Gold Cup. Did Road To Riches give his true running? I doubt it, he may still go for the Ryanair yet anyway. Foxrock and First Lieutenant were well beat yesterday and gave Don Poli a run for his money in the Lexus, whilst Carlingford Lough was well beat in the Lexus and hosed up yesterday, so the form totally contradicts itself and is a complete mess.
This heavy ground Irish form in the winter is very suspect in my view. Rather than reading too much into all of this sort of form I'll guarantee the form that prevails at the festival is the form of races run on better ground and the previous festival form (providing we get decent ground at Cheltenham of course). I'm not talking about the Gold Cup specifically just the festival in general. It always proves to be right every year. Without wanting to change subject from the Gold Cup, but as others have pointed out in another thread, Tombstone could be a good example of this. A cracking example at a nice price at the festival last year was Uxizandre. Battered in heavy winter ground but then with his proven Cheltenham and good ground form, puts in the performance of his life when it mattered most, of course I'd think anyone on here would know this, but sometimes some do read too deep into some of these races. |
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spot of sf there are going to be some nice priced winners at cheltenham this year if the going is different to what it has been over the winter
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Add in the suicidal pace they went yesterday and the form is worthless.
The King George holds the key. Cue Card, Vautour, or Don Cossack. Hopefully in that order  |
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Wouldn't the strong pace yesterday help sort out the weak from the strong? If it had been a sedate crawl, then I would call the form pretty worthless.
Regardless of who beat who by what lengths (because I agree very heavy ground form can be suspect), but in the two big trials, the two horses too take out of them were Don Poli and Valseur Lido, re Gold Cup chances - the cream rose to the top despite adverse conditions (I know VL fell by the way, but I still think he was the one to take out of it) Also, the Don Cossack fans who pin their hopes on end of season Punchestown form, Valseur Lido smashed Don Poli at the same fixture, so that has to come into the equation. |
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DC beat Djakadam 7l who in turn finished over 6 lengths further ahead than he did at CGC 2015 over RTR (ground at Punchestown and exertion at the CGC 2015 told their toll), but DC was held up unlike yesterday where RTR was prominent throughout with the front runner On His Own - those at the front just went too fast, and CL would have won, in my opinion, even if VL had not fallen.
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FYI, where I put "in the two big trials", I meant in Ireland by the way; not the KG or Betfair etc
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After the Lord Mayor's show form is not really a big pointer either. I do think Don Cossack has a chance but think it is unlikely he will put it together. Even if he does it proably won't be enough imo.
The last couple of weeks has seen me sour on the chances of Djakadam and Road To Riches. This conveniently fits in with my agenda for supporting the horse in a million, destiny awaits! |
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I think the key is the ground, if its good to soft or better Vautour wins, KG form stacking up very well...
spring ground Cheltenham and being fully wound up should mean a good 5-10lbs improvement for me. watch the king George back and ruby lets him roll from about 1.5 miles out, bit more patience on better ground and he'll stay and win. |
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I personally think that race yesterday
will put RTR spot on for Cheltenham,1st run for a while. GL ALL |
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very hard race 5 weeks out might take its toll, hope not.
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Yesterday's race would have convinced owner and trainer RTR is no top class over 26f good ground or worse especially with proven stayers like DC, Dp and Djakadam; RTR is Ryanair bound, if sound, or Aintree I'd imagine.
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only beat just over 3L in last years GC.
Winner Coneygree a class horse,imo. If RTR is'nt a Gold Cup runner I'd be very surprised. |
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Of course he's a Gold Cup horse,he proved it last year........beyond doubt.
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People saying Irish and winter ground form is worthless but that's exactly what the GC was run on last year,should the form of that race be ignored?
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Only races to concentrate on are KG and Lexus,winners of these races races in any year should be taken very seriously esp winners that love Cheltenham.The Gold Cup winner ran in one of those and even tho i can't have Cue Card him and Don Poli should be 1st and 2nd in the betting.
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Stats wise that's probably true Jasey, but you'd have to think would Don Cossack, Vautour or Djakadam won that Lexus if they faced the same field? The answer is probably yes, judging on First Lieutenant coming second.
So just because Don Poli won it shouldn't automatically put him second in the betting because he won a key trial, when any of the main protagonists would probably have won it as well, but by further. |
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I would imagine the best Irish GC horses normally run in Lexus the best Brits in the KG.
Now though with connections wanting to keep a lot of horses apart we may see less winners of these races winning the Gold Cup? By the way Jasey, it seems a fair few are ignoring the Gold Cup form......not many on here seem to be fancying Djak or RTR. |
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I ain't ignoring RTR I just don't know where he will run and think after starting the season well his season has been interrupted,pretty sure he would have defended his Lexus if he was fit.
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yeh, fair point.
Ive been banging his drum, but I am struggling to see how he can get there at the same level as he was last year. |
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My original plan to wait until the day to back Cue Card might need rethinking I feel.
There are a few factors that will see him possibly being well backed. Tizzard looks likely to win the big race the day before, where he will of course be asked about is horse going for the million the next day.... and going for that million will itself attract support. Not to mention having this season's best form. 7/1 might have to be taken, there will no doubt be some NRs to come. |
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If you back with 365, they are NRNB and B.O.G, so if he does drift, you'll get the SP anyway.
I think he'll go off shorter than 7's as well though - there will be a lot of sentimental money for him too; re the old boy agains the up and coming ones, going for the million bonus, his festival record and he's everyone's favourite or second favourite horse |
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The King George is such a key trial for the CGC and this year is no different. For me Vautour and Cue Card will be there at the business end and the younger horse looks the one to be on.
He jumped superbly at the festival last year and gets in a lovely rhythm. Not worried about the distance, his sire has produced top 3 milers and his dam sire produced the doughty stayer Dom Samuorai. The form of the King George is rock solid and if its decent going on Gold Cup day i dont think the others will get to him |
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Djak was finally unstitched and back into proper training. Vautour no prep run.
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WPM training facilities are a shambles would definitely worry about no prep
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Vautour could line up at Newbury or Gowran this weekend. RR believes he could benefit from a prep run but Mullins unsure in Daily Mail interview. Tuesday workout will decide
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I'd heard no prep for Vautour too Tim. I think that'll mean he is nailed on to run in the Gold Cup.
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Yea Djak didn't provided any sort of a clue in his last race so its the logical conclusion for Mullins, I can't see them changing the plans now so I expect them both RR's to turn up in the GC and maybe send VVM for the Ryanair.
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If the ground did end up Soft/Heavy then plans for Vautour could change. Doubt Vautour over 3m2f on very soft would get home. However, with likely decent ground then it looks like the Gold Cup.
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Vautour not entered at either Gowran or Newbury this weekend
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agree @shockster, ground is a major factor where Vautour ends.
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https://amp.twimg.com/v/2fa2eb02-2e08-4e13-9234-1cb05b06f14d
Good little Paul Kealy v Graham Rodway Don Poli debate on RP's twitter feed. Sounds a lot like this thread, there is no grey area with Don Poli; a lot think he's a cert and some just cannot have him at all. He divides opinion anyway |
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I do not wish to find out at Cheltenham with Don Poli at 6/1!
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Well I think Don Poli gets a lot of unfair stick, he's not flashy but he's a battler. The notion he's slow??? He won the Martin Pipe, yes he was well handicapped but you can't win a festival handicap hurdle over 2.5m on good ground by being slow. The form of his Sun Alliance and Lexus isn't the greatest but this horse does enough no more. The softer the ground the better as some of his GC rivals won't like it and I'd have him all day over Don Cossack, please Cooper ride the Cossack
Paul Kealy made me laugh the other week Reve De Sivola couldn't get beat over fences at Haydock  don't get me wrong he's not the worst but sometimes he's very dismissive of other people. |