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Cheltenham Festival
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These 564 comments are related to the topic:
2016 gold cup you decide
2016 gold cup you decide
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Replies: 564
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Nice to see RTR getting a lot of discussion time.
Not so sure about the stat of having his second run after failing first time applies to him too much.....thought the point made about him running on better ground this year(if we get it) was very apt. |
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cue cards birthday on 30 April! Nine and a bit
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RTR was beaten twice and once, fair and square, by Djakadam and Don Cossack (DC) respectively last year - what more evidence would one need? Unless something untoward happen to the two Dons RTR is Ryanair bound, and I'm more confident of that happening as I'm of 'Min' winning the Supreme ie 2/1; it is also telling that Don Poli is not entered for the Ryanair (DC is) but the trainer of RTR was specifically asked by Gigginstown to enter RTR for the race.
RTR is heading for the Ryanair, all being well with the two Dons. |
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Absolutely right Timtin, although apparently Djakadam is doing well and could yet still make the race.
Not much between the two based on last March where I think they were at their best. Better ground I just think RTR would come out on top especially as now Djaks prep has gone a bit wrong. At the prices they are now RTR is value....... you can get 12 nrnb if you think Ryanair is a worry, which it seems it is. |
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I really hope RTR runs here. Can't believe Giggs won't throw everything at winning the Gold cup.
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Yeh, dont want any of them not turning up, and it will be good to have placed horses from last years race.
And I agree about throwing everything at winning the race. A good run Saturday should hopefully seal the deal, but you just never know these days with owners!! |
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Just looking at the entries, Giggi have half a dozen others in the Ryanair in addition to RTR and Don Cossack.Valseur Lido is entered in Ryanair and Grand National, Don Poli not entered in Ryanair but is in Grand National.
Meade did say Michael O'Leary had asked him to put RTR in the Ryanair but only in the context of the question he was asked - I imagine they have a similar dialogue with all their other trainers because they take a more 'hands on' approach to the entries than e.g. Graham Wylie (according to Wylie himself). If Giggi insist he will run in the Ryanair of course but if he wins the Irish Gold Cup convincingly over 3 miles on Saturday, I really don't see why he'd be in the Ryanair - if he gets beaten by Valseur Lido it might be a different story. |
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eddie oleary very upbeat abour rtr - saying he would have won last years gc if rain had stayed away, that its only cause he is so honest that he runs so well on testing ground and that he is MUCH better on good ground - well not much room for misinterpretation there youd have to say
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Well it's nice to know the owner agrees that he would have won,so hopefully they now run him in the race given suitable ground.
I'm having a bit of the 12 nrnb. |
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there will be a lot more excuses on soft ground this year so am hoping and praying this year we have a decent ground gc
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Apart from RTR the runners for the Irish Gold Cup this weekend do not amount to much, and none will probably finish in the frame for the Ryanair next month if taking part; RTR has won on soft going, and the ground in the 2015 CGC was soft/good to soft, due to the downpour on race day; I also believe the horses that RTR beat last year would not have secured a place in any CGC, let alone this year.
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Yeh, a nice decent ground Gold Cup with no excuses sounds good to me.
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impossible,
I think it more to the point the horses he was closest to ie the winner and second. |
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buddeliea,
Coneygree was aided by the prevailing ground condition last year I do admit however, RTR finished further behind Djakadam and 13 lengths behind Don Cossack, a horse better on good ground, in the Punchestown Gold Cup - I just cannot envisage RTR overturning this deficit even on his best ground, all things equal. |
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Fair enough,I think i realise you don't fancy him.
Im trusting his gold Cup performance was his true running when he was in the best shape, and not the defeat after. Let's hope we find out by him running against DC and the rest on nice ground. |
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I think I've said it before but RTR wasn't given such a beautiful ride as Ruby gave Djak in the GC. Cooper went after Coneygree early on in the race, then he droped in giving ground away for no reason and at the top of the hill he didn't have the confidence to sit and wait and wasted lots of RTR energy by pushing him down the hill for no reason as his horse responding fine. I think that made the difference between 2nd and third spot. He wasn't the same horse at Punchestown for whatever reason. He's got all chances if he's in the same form and assuming Vautour and CC won't stay the trip then he's only got Djak and Cossack to worry about. Hopefully he takes his place in the line-up and bowls along upfront along Smad Place.
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The Irish Gold Cup is not a good pointer for Cheltenham while still being a good race in its own right. Any trainer that is serious about winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup would not be running their horses in this attritional race just 6 weeks out from the festival. Not too many horses sprint home after 3 miles at Leopardstown and most finish tired.
Given that Noel Meade has had a poor season, the Irish Gold Cup would be a good pot to win for his stable and this race should be the target for Road To Riches. On the other hand, Willie Mullins has learned to avoid this race for his top notch festival horses while still being well represented with a decent second string. I would pay close attention to Sir Des Champs, Valseur Lido & On His Own with a view to Sundays race and discount them from running well at the festival. Recent Irish Gold Cup winners with subsequent Cheltenham Gold Cup placing in brackets: 2015 Carlinford Lough (9th) 2014 Last Instalment (UR) 2013 Sir Des Champs (2nd *trainer decided to run at Leopardstown as it was a 4 runner race. Still left a mark imo) 2012 Quel Esprit (NR) 2011 Kempes (PU) 2010 Joncol (NR - out for remainder of the season) 2009 Neptune Collonges (4th beaten 22 lengths) 2008 The Listener (5th in the Ryanair) 2007 Beef Or Salmon (13th) 2006 Beef Or Salmon (11th) 2005 Rule Supreme (3rd in the World Hurdle) 2004 Florida Pearl (NR - Retired) 2003 Beef Or Salmon (F) 2002 Alexander Banquet (6th) 2001 Florida Pearl (NR) 2000 Florida Pearl (2nd) 1999 Florida Pearl (3rd beaten 18 lengths) 1998 Dorans Pride (3rd) 1997 Danoli (F) 1996 Imperial Call (1st) 1995 Jodami (8th) |
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Blarney - i look at that list and look at the cGC winners the same year and i am not surprised - the horses are simply not the same standard - of the two with real quality (which takes out 7 IGC winners) one didnt stay and the other never won a race outside ireland despite mutiple attemts (not just cheltenham) - you could argue dorans pride didnt run to his sp but the highest rpr he ever achieved was 171 so would have been a below average winner in any case. Each to their own, but for me to give this more credibility i would need to see horses on your list that looked every inch a gc winner waiting to happen and then disappointed and i dont see one. Many however will agree with you i'm sure. GL
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i was thinking some more about your theory - if you are right it potentially opens up a few can of worms - 1) Florida Pearl consistently left his race behind in ireland and what has hitherto been seen as non staying performances could have been tired performances and 2) Beef or salmon may have acted around cheltenham but was not given the opportunity because ha also left his race behind. Take this one step further and either the connections of those two horses prioritised the igc and accepted the consequences come cheltenham time or were unaware that it was impacting their CGC performance and were repeatedly not learning from their mistake. Now thats controversial
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I just think the best horses run in the KG or the Lexus and are put away after a hard race.
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Controversial, MS, but I like it! Florida Pearl didn't look a suspect stayer when winning the RSA and it was perpetually disappointing that he didn't manage to win the big one - this seems a reasonable explanation.
I think Sir Des had the requisite class, he just met a Bobsworth at the peak of his abilities, his performance that day would probably have been good enough to have won the Gold Cups either side of it. |
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DO - agree re sdc but didnt mention him because i felt he ran his race in CGC so didnt see him as a data point to back up the theory
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So how do Giggi split their runners?
Valseur Lido firmly in the Gold Cup picture now, and Willie suggested that the other day (he wanted him in the RSA last year). |
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God knows!!
A lot of form has got all mis mashed today,juvenile form went Al over the place and so did the staying chase form. Don't know what to make of the respective runs from Carlingford,Foxrock and FL,and quiet what that does as re RTR and DP I just don't know. What does anyone else make of it all?? |
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Nothing, the irish ones just beat each other up all winter long on bad ground and turn up a Cheltenham in what ever race and the market usually speaks on the day.
Reckon Cue Card and Don Cossack was watching today with both eyes wide open and getting ever so slightly excited  |
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My heads hurting
 I need a rest |
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Just took abit of 20/1 NRNB on Valseur Lido. Whatever race he goes for, its not ideal going to the festival after a fall, but he absolutely tanked round. Always thought he had a big run in him, and he's come on a huge amount from the King Geroge.
Looks an all out 3 miler to me. Road to Riches was a bit disappointing, hitting a few fences. He will come on a lot for the run, and better ground. I still think he can place in a Gold Cup, but I can't see him winning it. RTR drifted to 17 on here last night for the Ryanair and topped up the 12's I'd already taken. If he does go the Gold Cup I'm screwed  |
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Although I didn't realise VL fell at the last in the King George, I just assumed he finished a remote 7th or 8th. Not ideal going into a G1 Cheltenhm race with UF next to your name
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couldn't be sure he would have won anyway , carlingford was finishing like a train !
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What do we make of the ride by Cooper? Thought he would have been better off laying further back myself the way OHO went off!!and the way he kept pushing him forward may well have resulted in his pretty tame finish. Winner came from way back,VL held up off the pace and was finishing very well until the mishap.
Still not given up hope of a decent performance if he gets nice ground. |
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road to riches was ridden like today was the day,will struggle to get over such a hard race in time for any race at cheltenham
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Yeah Foyles, it would have been close, but I defintiely think VL is the one to take out of the race. Carlingford Lough is a National type, who would have relished the stamina test.
I was surprised with the ride on RTR too. On very soft ground in his first run since November, I didn't think he needed to press on with him from the go, because it was obvious he was going to get tired at the end. Much better judged from Ruby, who put VL in the right place at the right time. |
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I've read a lot of negative stuff re Cooper on this forum,and not got involved as I don't really like to have a pop at jockeys,but I am a bit bemused with his ride today to be honest.
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valseur lido is my cliff horse and i still believe but my bank manager begs to differ
 . he ran one bad race last year and was generally a horse who travelled well and jumped well. imo he's a stayer (two gr 1s last year over 3m) and i hope they go gold cup but you never know with gigginstown. i havent seen the fall at kempton but he wasnt running well anyway that day. today we dont know what would have been as cl was staying on really well. as pointed out above uf dont look great prior to the big day. i backed ages ago for ryan air and gc but really hope he's gc bound. |
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yeh agree wellcheif valseur more unexposed and it was probably carlinfords target today ,cracking price for last years winner ,hindsight and all that !
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But will RTR go GC after today? Gigginstown will want a horse with a decent chance of winning their own race and it could boil down to a decision between RTR and VL and you'd have to say that VL probably cemented his GC spot after today leaving RTR to possibly to defect to Ryanair.
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Road To Riches never traveled today in my opinion. He lost ground to On His Own at numerous fences. Cooper was only riding him to hold his position.
He might improve for better ground but it was poor effort all the same and add to that, he had a grueling enough race. Valseur Lido has overtaken him in the Giggy pecking order. I reckon one of those two will probably head for the Ryanair. |
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Dont think any from todays tough race will be winning Gold Cup, surprise surprise.
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Carlingford would have won anyway. Absolutely hammered home, and VL wasn't finding that kind of acceleration instantly.
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