Cheltenham Festival
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What bit of form, from Cheltenham last year and this years 2 runs makes this 5/4 fav for the champion hurdle? I'm not saying this horse can't win, but if it's trained by Phillip Hobbs or Alan king, it's 7/2 - 4/1, at least...
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Bankit I think you need to look again. He also ran at Punchestown last year (April)
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Yeah I know that ark, at punch festival, is that the run that makes it in some places an evs fav for the champ hurdle!? Don't think so!! Anyone betting on this at this price should give up punting!!!!!
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^
where he was mightily impressive, but was so against non champion hurdle types nearly 2 stone below what is required to win a champion hurdle. Faugheen is all about the "visual" and the undoubted potential but the truth is that he is priced up on this rather than solid grade 1 form against the types he'll face on the day, this quality, the pace of the race, the pressure his jumping will come under will all be new and he's priced up as if he's faced all this and done all this before, when scrolling down the CH betting you've got to reach the 33/1 shots before you start to see horses he's beaten. |
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Agree Duffy, but also its because of who trains it. this horse may win by 5 lengths, it's not the horse Im having a go at, he can only beat who is put in front of him, but the price is ridiculous!!!!
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@bankit -- of course it is because of who trains it, but who trains it is Ireland's perennial champion trainer who has won enough Champion Hurdles to know what he is looking at.
You'd imagine though, it will be bigger on Tuesday morning then get smashed up if Mullins wins with his other good things in the Supreme and Arkle. |
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Ramruna,
But if Mullins knows what he's looking at - and I agree that his record proves that he does - what was Faugheen doing running in a 3M novice hurdle as recently as last Xmas, having started his hurdling career over 2M 6F. It's hardly the usual route for a Champion Hurdler, more like a future Grand National/Gold Cup candidate. There won't be many past Champion Hurdlers that had already won a 3M hurdle race. |
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@TheAnorak -- I'm not saying Faugheen is a good thing: I'm saying the OP's contention that Faugheen is short because Mullins trains him, misses the point. It is a positive, not a coincidence.
It's like when Sir Henry said Frankel was the best we'd seen, we believed him. If Gaye Kelleway had said it, we'd wonder how she'd know and just which of her previous flying machines she was comparing him with. Fwiw, I reckon any of the leading contenders could win the Champion Hurdle, granted luck in running. A better reason to doubt Faugheen's price is that Ruby still seems to be humming and hawing about the Fly. |
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Once Ruby will confirm the ride he'll shorten to 8/11 or lower in the morning, don't know at what he'll start though as it'll depend on what happens with Douvan and UDS
he's a 3 miler alright, he also has scope for fences so why did FATE not gave Mullins a better hope for the CH so that we could see Faugheen as a chaser this season(like it was the plan before P'town) maybe even clash with UDS in the Arkle or with Sacre in the CC... we now have nothing but a 2 miler who only needs to show his previous form to win so not too thrilling to watch like it would've been over fences... maybe if he loses than Mullins sends him chasing next season ?? please ?!  |
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don't see him being anything like 8/11 myself even if Ruby is riding him. The market is pretty mature now and he is 2.4
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I'd be very surprised if he's not available at 6/4 at least in the morning of the race, 7/4 wouldn't be a surprise imo.
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Ramruna,
Apologies, it wasn't meant to be having a pop at you, just raising the point that even Mullins didn't seem to rate the horse as a potential Champion Hurdler until quite recently. Even at Punchestown last year he only ran over 2M as a late replacement for Vautour when that one became unavailable. |
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I was talking about bookies prices, on exchanges he'll probably shorten around 2.2, however if they do want to take him on then fair play to them for being so brave.
I remember when the Lads had Frankel at 1/2 for the QE2 and they've lost millions as everyone lumped on big time. Could be similar story here but don't think the bookies are so brave now, they'll probably take on Douvan make him 5/2 3/1 prices on these shorties are irrelevant anyways, handicaps is where proper value is, if you can catch a winner that is  |
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Frankel had the proven form in the book and no hurdles to jump.
I think the bookies will the higher side of 6/4 Tuesday morning. |
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Duffy you and others have made the point that he has only beaten horses who are massive prices for the CH. But that misses the point in that they are big prices for the CH because he murdered then - chicken and egg. Anyway we will know pretty soon.
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Bigger in the morning but after the Mullins hotpots in the first two races go in -- Douvan and Un De Sceaux -- the running-on trebles and the Irish lads on course playing up their winnings will fix that.
The the acca's will run on to Annie Power in the Mares. Or grind to a juddering halt when Sam gets The New One up. |
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If he had proven form he'd be unbackable price wouldn't he? just like Frankel was that day except for the Lads. IF he'll win well on Tuesday then no shrewdie will be able to back him in future, so probably this time around is the last time someone can take a decent bet at his odds and be `happy` if he loses, not only in my humble opinion but my funds as well
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I don't know why people want to knock faugheen,this is the best champion hurdle winner since istabraq,has smashed everything in sight,has speed and has a massive engine !
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Surely the ability to hurdle fluently at CH pace is vital and evidence suggests a doubt on that score
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cufcno1 • March 2, 2015 1:41 PM GMT
I don't know why people want to knock faugheen,this is the best champion hurdle winner since istabraq,has smashed everything in sight,has speed and has a massive engine I think are knocking Faugheen based on the price . Its now taking on horses that have actually won Champion Hurdles on what looks likely to be on "relatively" quick ground @ championship pace. His price is based on hope ,hype and expectation. Rooster Booster won the 2003 Champion Hurdle pulling double by 11 lengths but still went off @ a bigger price on the day the following year than Faugheen currently is ante post. Rooster Booster had no previous CHampion in opposition Faugheen has to face horse that have won 3 previous champions between them therefore 11/8 ish ante post looks decidingly tight and gotta be a lay. I will be surprised in he aint 7/4 15/8 on the morning of the race. |
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Faugheen either dots up on bridle or finishes 5th or worse imho! Ive thought this since Xmas hurdle and for all of the above reasons i aint repeating what others have already said about him just read this thread but to put it in a few words
hurdling beat nothing more than 3 mile hurdlers/chasers at punch Other than his Neptune win has beat nothing of any note, have to look beyond the 33/1ers in the market Has never been asked for effort in a tough finish, if asked, will he actually find anything off the bridle? We know he has speed, what about stamina? We know he won a 3 mile hurdle race, but what did he beat and it was over a year ago now. |
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Fair enough will find out next week
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that run at punchestown last year was the single most impressive performance i have seen in last 5 years. apart from that OP has a point
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Spot on, howdi - that was the run that told us all
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Ruby was patting his back with a furlong to go
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Looking between his legs for danglers!
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 just like next week |
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Howdi
02 Mar 15 15:51 that run at punchestown last year was the single most impressive performance i have seen in last 5 years. apart from that OP has a point I'll go for SS laughing at the 170 rated Cue Card and flemenstar just for good measure, for that particular honour...there are others though! |
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sea the stars, if he wins, I can assure you it won't be on the bridle... Howdi, that performance at punchestown beating valseur lido and sgt reckless was very good, and he couldn't have done anymore, but there not seasoned grade 1 hurdlers, can't possibly be considered best hurdle form for 5 years....
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When Faugheen won the neptune, willie said in an interview straight after that he wasn't in the same league as vautour. He wasn't the best novice in his own yard. Now i know wpm could have got that wrong and may or may not think that now, but to me he has never sounded as though he thinks this horse is outstanding.5-4 on what he's done just aint for me. Maybe he is a superstar but he has to prove that still.
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"Once Ruby will confirm the ride he'll shorten to 8/11 or lower in the morning"
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There's no way it will be odds on. Ruby is guaranteed to take the ride and that has already been factored into the price
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Indeed maelduin, that statement is crazy!
bankit, even if he is ridden out and wins a clear distance to the 2nd, does that mean he won in a battling finish? No just means he was the best horse on the day. Faugheen is a win or bomb type. Simple as that imo. He's never been tried at the highest level against seasoned 2 milers yet. Big difference between being able to dominate inferior opposition using his speed than going at it at the business end of the champ hurdle at top speed and having to battle i just don't think he will be capable to battle if he has to. I say that having backed him at laddies rather ridiculous looking at the time 7/4 just after the Xmas hdl win. I've laid half of that stake off on here and my jackpot for the race is TNO 7/2 - 3/1. Sitting at 55% right there, place money aside and have Jezki 13/2 fly 20/1 and AF 25/1 to make up my book. Nice little profit just awaiting me str8 after what will be one of the best races of the festival.  |
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When Ruby chooses HF i think there will be many
on this forum imo |
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yea @firstimevisor he said that with a big grimace on his face :-) Mullins also said that Faugheen `will learn to respect the obstacles a bit more` when sent chasing next season so why is Faugheen over hurdles ?? He stays forever so the Gold Cup should be his target, not CH which doesn't tests horses that much.
Btw, 2 years ago the rumour in Mullins yard was that Faugheen was the best bumper around, only to skip the festival, maybe he's the horse that Mullins forgot home 2 years ago @maelduin 8/11 with bookies not on exchanges...prob 2.2 around here if Ruby decides to get on board. Only a week to find out though |
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I keep telling you guys,if Annie power runs in the champion hurdle (ground will decide)ruby will be in the saddle.
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heavy ground and faugheen,the fly,and TNO ,will all withdraw,and heavy ground at this stage just might to the call on the day,check your forecasts.
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Are you on crack ? Faugheen would win double the distance,forecast settled dry weather,Annie power is gonna run in the mots race !
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my dear friend,i am not going to get into an argument with you,but Faugheen can not even keep up with annie on the gallops at home,and to give Annie a half a stone in weight(mares allowance)is bordering insanity,Annie would slaughter the CH field,you either underestimate Annie Power or over value Faugheen.Annie Power can run over any distance on any going and is the greatest hurdler in training today.In fact she was 7/2 for last years champion hurdle before being withdrawn.But it nothing new for betfair forumites and racing gravy train,and timeform experts to dilute Annies ability.
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Have i gone back in time a year.
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