Faughheen, what am I missing?

Bankit I think you need to look again. He also ran at Punchestown last year (April)

Yeah I know that ark, at punch festival, is that the run that makes it in some places an evs fav for the champ hurdle!? Don't think so!! Anyone betting on this at this price should give up punting!!!!!

^
where he was mightily impressive, but was so against non champion hurdle types nearly 2 stone below what is required to win a champion hurdle.

Faugheen is all about the "visual" and the undoubted potential but the truth is that he is priced up on this rather than solid grade 1 form against the types he'll face on the day, this quality, the pace of the race, the pressure his jumping will come under will all be new and he's priced up as if he's faced all this and done all this before, when scrolling down the CH betting you've got to reach the 33/1 shots before you start to see horses he's beaten.

Agree Duffy, but also its because of who trains it.  this horse may win by 5 lengths, it's not the horse Im having a go at, he can only beat who is put in front of him, but the price is ridiculous!!!!

@bankit -- of course it is because of who trains it, but who trains it is Ireland's perennial champion trainer who has won enough Champion Hurdles to know what he is looking at.

You'd imagine though, it will be bigger on Tuesday morning then get smashed up if Mullins wins with his other good things in the Supreme and Arkle.

Ramruna,

But if Mullins knows what he's looking at - and I agree that his record proves that he does - what was Faugheen doing running in a 3M novice hurdle as recently as last Xmas, having started his hurdling career over 2M 6F.

It's hardly the usual route for a Champion Hurdler, more like a future Grand National/Gold Cup candidate. There won't be many past Champion Hurdlers that had already won a 3M hurdle race.

@TheAnorak -- I'm not saying Faugheen is a good thing: I'm saying the OP's contention that Faugheen is short because Mullins trains him, misses the point. It is a positive, not a coincidence.

It's like when Sir Henry said Frankel was the best we'd seen, we believed him. If Gaye Kelleway had said it, we'd wonder how she'd know and just which of her previous flying machines she was comparing him with.

Fwiw, I reckon any of the leading contenders could win the Champion Hurdle, granted luck in running. A better reason to doubt Faugheen's price is that Ruby still seems to be humming and hawing about the Fly.

Once Ruby will confirm the ride he'll shorten to 8/11 or lower in the morning, don't know at what he'll start though as it'll depend on what happens with Douvan and UDS

he's a 3 miler alright, he also has scope for fences so why did FATE not gave Mullins a better hope for the CH so that we could see Faugheen as a chaser this season(like it was the plan before P'town) maybe even clash with UDS in the Arkle or with Sacre in the CC... we now have nothing but a 2 miler who only needs to show his previous form to win so not too thrilling to watch like it would've been over fences... maybe if he loses than Mullins sends him chasing next season ?? please ?!

don't see him being anything like 8/11 myself even if Ruby is riding him. The market is pretty mature now and he is 2.4

I'd be very surprised if he's not available at 6/4 at least in the morning of the race, 7/4 wouldn't be a surprise imo.

Ramruna,

Apologies, it wasn't meant to be having a pop at you, just raising the point that even Mullins didn't seem to rate the horse as a potential Champion Hurdler until quite recently. Even at Punchestown last year he only ran over 2M as a late replacement for Vautour when that one became unavailable.

I was talking about bookies prices, on exchanges he'll probably shorten around 2.2, however if they do want to take him on then fair play to them for being so brave.

I remember when the Lads had Frankel at 1/2 for the QE2 and they've lost millions as everyone lumped on big time. Could be similar story here but don't think the bookies are so brave now, they'll probably take on Douvan make him 5/2 3/1

prices on these shorties are irrelevant anyways, handicaps is where proper value is, if you can catch a winner that is

Frankel had the proven form in the book and no hurdles to jump.
I think the bookies will the higher side of 6/4 Tuesday morning.

Duffy you and others have made the point that he has only beaten horses who are massive prices for the CH. But that misses the point in that they are big prices for the CH because he murdered then - chicken and egg. Anyway we will know pretty soon.

Bigger in the morning but after the Mullins hotpots in the first two races go in -- Douvan and Un De Sceaux -- the running-on trebles and the Irish lads on course playing up their winnings will fix that.

The the acca's will run on to Annie Power in the Mares. Or grind to a juddering halt when Sam gets The New One up.

If he had proven form he'd be unbackable price wouldn't he? just like Frankel was that day except for the Lads. IF he'll win well on Tuesday then no shrewdie will be able to back him in future, so probably this time around is the last time someone can take a decent bet at his odds and be `happy` if he loses, not only in my humble opinion but my funds as well

I don't know why people want to knock faugheen,this is the best champion hurdle winner since istabraq,has smashed everything in sight,has speed and has a massive engine !

Surely the ability to hurdle fluently at CH pace is vital and evidence suggests a doubt on that score

cufcno1 • March 2, 2015 1:41 PM GMT
I don't know why people want to knock faugheen,this is the best champion hurdle winner since istabraq,has smashed everything in sight,has speed and has a massive engine


I think are knocking Faugheen based on the price . Its now taking on horses that have actually won Champion Hurdles on what looks likely to be on "relatively" quick ground @ championship pace.
His price is based on hope ,hype and expectation.
Rooster Booster won the 2003 Champion Hurdle pulling double by 11 lengths but still went off @ a bigger price on the day the following year than Faugheen currently is ante post.
Rooster Booster had no previous CHampion in opposition
Faugheen has to face horse that have won 3 previous champions between them therefore 11/8 ish ante post looks decidingly tight and gotta be a lay.
I will be surprised in he aint 7/4 15/8 on the morning of the race.

Faugheen either dots up on bridle or finishes 5th or worse imho! Ive thought this since Xmas hurdle and for all of the above reasons i aint repeating what others have already said about him just read this thread but to put it in a few words

hurdling

beat nothing more than 3 mile hurdlers/chasers at punch

Other than his Neptune win has beat nothing of any note, have to look beyond the 33/1ers in the market

Has never been asked for effort in a tough finish, if asked, will he actually find anything off the bridle? We know he has speed, what about stamina? We know he won a 3 mile hurdle race, but what did he beat and it was over a year ago now.

Fair enough will find out next week

that run at punchestown last year was the single most impressive performance i have seen in last 5 years. apart from that OP has a point

Spot on, howdi - that was the run that told us all

Ruby was patting his back with a furlong to go

Looking between his legs for danglers!

just like next week

Howdi
     02 Mar 15 15:51
that run at punchestown last year was the single most impressive performance i have seen in last 5 years. apart from that OP has a point 


I'll go for SS laughing at the 170 rated Cue Card and flemenstar just for good measure, for that particular honour...there are others though!

sea the stars, if he wins, I can assure you it won't be on the bridle... Howdi, that performance at punchestown beating valseur lido and sgt reckless was very good, and he couldn't have done anymore, but there not seasoned grade 1 hurdlers, can't possibly be considered best hurdle form for 5 years....

When Faugheen won the neptune, willie said in an interview straight after that he wasn't in the same league as vautour. He wasn't the best novice in his own yard. Now i know wpm could have got that wrong and may or may not think that now, but to me he has never sounded as though he thinks this horse is outstanding.5-4 on what he's done just aint for me. Maybe he is a superstar but he has to prove that still.

"Once Ruby will confirm the ride he'll shorten to 8/11 or lower in the morning"

There's no way it will be odds on. Ruby is guaranteed to take the ride and that has already been factored into the price

Indeed maelduin, that statement is crazy!

bankit, even if he is ridden out and wins a clear distance to the 2nd, does that mean he won in a battling finish? No just means he was the best horse on the day. Faugheen is a win or bomb type. Simple as that imo. He's never been tried at the highest level against seasoned 2 milers yet. Big difference between being able to dominate inferior opposition using his speed than going at it at the business end of the champ hurdle at top speed and having to battle i just don't think he will be capable to battle if he has to.

I say that having backed him at laddies rather ridiculous looking at the time 7/4 just after the Xmas hdl win. I've laid half of that stake off on here and my jackpot for the race is TNO 7/2 - 3/1. Sitting at 55% right there, place money aside and have Jezki 13/2 fly 20/1 and AF 25/1 to make up my book. Nice little profit just awaiting me str8 after what will be one of the best races of the festival.

When Ruby chooses HF i think there will be many on this forum imo

yea @firstimevisor he said that with a big grimace on his face :-) Mullins also said that Faugheen `will learn to respect the obstacles a bit more` when sent chasing next season so why is Faugheen over hurdles ?? He stays forever so the Gold Cup should be his target, not CH which doesn't tests horses that much.

Btw, 2 years ago the rumour in Mullins yard was that Faugheen was the best bumper around, only to skip the festival, maybe he's the horse that Mullins forgot home 2 years ago

@maelduin 8/11 with bookies not on exchanges...prob 2.2 around here if Ruby decides to get on board. Only a week to find out though

I keep telling you guys,if Annie power runs in the champion hurdle (ground will decide)ruby will be in the saddle.

heavy ground and faugheen,the fly,and TNO ,will all withdraw,and heavy ground at this stage just might to the call on the day,check your forecasts.

Are you on crack ? Faugheen would win double the distance,forecast settled dry weather,Annie power is gonna run in the mots race !

my dear friend,i am not going to get into an argument with you,but Faugheen can not even keep up with annie on the gallops at home,and to give Annie a half a stone in weight(mares allowance)is bordering insanity,Annie would slaughter the CH field,you either underestimate Annie Power or over value Faugheen.Annie Power can run over any distance on any going and is the greatest hurdler in training today.In fact she was 7/2 for last years champion hurdle before being withdrawn.But it nothing new for betfair forumites and racing gravy train,and timeform experts to dilute Annies ability.

Have i gone back in time a year.

Annie powers record
12 runs
11 wins
1 error of judgement by Ruby(and he will tell that himself)
She can only do what is asked of her.

Bubble was burst last year

Would that error of judgement have anything to do with watching More Of That scampering away fro her after the last as if someone had lit a fire under his ar5e Brasso?

"@maelduin 8/11 with bookies not on exchanges"



Not a chance in hell Faugheen is less then 5/4 at the off. Every bookie worth their salt should be laying Faugheen at around that price and higher. Faugheen has never been in a race that resembles anything like the CH. Last years time was a record and with multiple JP entries you can bet they're going to try and set it up for Jezki again. Even the great Istabraq had to prove himself the first time he won a CH and his price reflected that on the day. The hype is ridiculous.

duffy • March 2, 2015 4:31 PM GMT
Howdi
     02 Mar 15 15:51
that run at punchestown last year was the single most impressive performance i have seen in last 5 years. apart from that OP has a point 


I'll go for SS laughing at the 170 rated Cue Card and flemenstar just for good measure, for that particular honour...there are others though!...hurdling yr monkey

The hype says that Jezki last year record time from 4 out is similar to Faugheen's last year time from 4 out. Someone posted a link around here, or search for turftrax records on google, you'll figure it out this hype ... Even if they'll lay him in the morning, they'll have so much cash coming in their way that by 12pm he'll shorten him again..

@brassneck Annie has other worries now, she needs to come back to form to play with the Mares, I believe you though she's the greatest hurdler alive

To be considered the best you have to beat the best, which Faugheen has yet to do which is why 5/4 is not for me. Massive potential, huge engine and done all that has been asked to date, but why anyone would take 5/4 at this stage is beyond me. Wouldn't surprise me one bit if he won, but i think there are better bets. I'm on the new one at 4/1 because he has answered some of the questions Faugheen has yet to answer. Can't seem to forget how TNO finished up the hill last year. I firmly believe the momentum lost from the hampering cost him and I think if STD can get him there or there abouts over the last then he will have what it takes to win

ok,let me give you all a valid point that nobody seems to pick up.THE NEW ONE=this horse has a problem and nobody seems to talk about it,
Every time this horse jumps I imagine he jumps to the right at the hurdle,now the champion hurdle will be run at a very fast pace and I can see this horse losing a few lengths over the hurdles,he is going to have a problem throughout the race and will need to be right up with the pace to be in with a chance.
But nobody seems to see this problem ,or am I imagining it.

@brassneck I just mentioned that in a sarcastic post in Faugheen thread. I think the ground he encountered at Haydock lto has nothing to do with the fact that he tries to avoid and jumps them markedly to the right, but we could be wrong and he will jump beatifully in the CH, right? No pressure for a 3/1 shot...

on the other hand I would not like to be on any horse and have the new one charging at me up the hill,but of the four who look like being the main contenders,the fly and the new one are the battlers,while faugheen seems to be finishing 3rd everytime I run the race in my mind.If Faugheen comes off the bridle we will all see a horse that nobody knows until it happens (in other words guess work)
So we are left with Jetski who fumbles his hurdles when under pressure.
So if Annie does not run,and I delete Arctic fire at my pearl it looks like its between the new one and the fly going over the last together with the new one losing the length jumping to the right and the fly battling to the post to win by a half a length.
Sorry for spoiling the race for you guys.

oh great you've taken out all the excitement for us.. should put a spoiler alert next time.. oh and Annie will win even if she's not in the race since she's Pegasus reincarnated I'm sure she has a pair of wings and will appear out of nowhere to take the victory from The Fly with few furlongs to run, she's that GoOoD

Hf and jezki only race against each other,and had a good handicapper splitting the last time,the new one can't jump and couldn't win last year,faugheen is beating horses without breaking sweat,it won't come off the bridle !

The new one jumps better on good ground but the pull to the right seems to be on soft ground,so if the ground is good it would not surprise me to see the new one go top of the betting,but the ground is so important to them all.thats why Annie is still in the market.willie  mullins has a horse entered  for all king of ground,so he intends  winning the race,but he hopes hurricane fly will be the one.

Arctic Fire either brings the form down, or has really improved, which one is it ? He's still rated about the same as Purple Bay so the price disparity is just

I know he hopes its Fly.. Faugheen can win for him all the races in the world and Mullins will still respect another horse eg. Arctic Fire, Douvan, Nichols Canyon, etc more than him.. so no surprise there its all out in the open in all his interviews..

The good ground will straighten TNO hurdling, I'm sure of that and 3/1 looks a HUGE value bet on that HOPE, he's sure to go off odds-on on this hope which seems more a certainity

And another point I would like to make about Faugheen is that the horse called the machine has been talked up and up by our very own motor mouth Matt chapman(the tan man on at the races)and his opinion (which he is entitled to have)is a bit like his tan=fake.imvho.
So everytime we hear anything of Faugheen its mister chapmans words that are repeated by the gravy train all the time.

one morning last week or so he was envious of 2 jockeys with nicer tan than himself

But yeah the fact that he also belives Faugheen is The Machine clearly means he'll lose, of course

I think the new one is certain to be in the first 3,and with a little luck in running he can win it,and if he is thereabouts at the last hurdle he will be the one finishing ,but if the fly is also there,i think the fly will out battle him.
so for me its
1 hurricane fly 6/1
2 the new one 2/1 jf
3.Faugheen 2/1 jf
nr=ANNIE POWER.

Istabraq is also a N/R. You should be precise and mention every great alive hurdler in the same breath as Annie POWER

Faugheen no chance he'll be 3rd, he hasn't beaten anything so far so why should he go so close, he's either a bomb or a win because his form doesn't suggests anything in the middle really Happy with Fly as the winner, of course only if Annie is N/R

IF THIS CANADIAN WEATHER MOVES IN NEXT WEEK,I CAN HEAR WILLIE NOW"we thought that the way the going is now we decided to give Annie her chance and ruby believes she might be better running in the CH  as to the longer race after her injury,so we will see how she gets on "

At least Chapman isn't scared to ask questions that others don't,can't wait to see faugheen hose up !

this is fun brassneck, you hear other voices or just Willie's ? The CH is much eaiser race of course than the Mares hurdle or World Hurdle, CH is so undemanding that she could run in all 3 races during the week, of course she'll be the one that hoses up in the CH, Faugheen will be lucky if he gets within 20 lengths off her, she's amazing, I think I also start to hear Willie voice Oh yeah its his interview bashing Faugheen..

Remember this,
Ruby said and its on the record="When Annie reappears I will be in the saddle"
no ifs,no buts,
And that my friends is why Annie Power is not allowed run in the champion hurdle.At the moment,but still a few days left to sort things out,
And now for the weather forcast.
A COLD SNAP OF ARCTIC CONDITIONS is making it way from Canada towards the Cheltenham area of England.its expected to arrive on Tuesday.we will keep you up to date with ANNIE changes because of the deepening wet conditions that are expected.

the Arctic Weather is bad for the Fire while its great for Annie and Fly, the 2 greatest hurdlers in training, of course preference goes to the former as she is without doubt the FIRE of the festival after so much time off the track she looks a certainity

Did you know that when the fly run at Cheltenham last year,it was discovered after the race that his blood count was wrong,and puzzled Willie.
Another point is that everyone says hurricane always runs poorly at Cheltenham.he does not do two badly when you think about it.like he won the race twice,not bad for a horse that always runs poorly.
And as for Annie,she is favorite for two top races at chelenham .that's not bad for a mare that is lame and has not run for a year.but this year Annie will do her own talking.

Nothing can live with her on the gallops, That's set me up for a day of laughter, Thank you

timtin Jezki doesnt hold the fastest time from 4 out in the champion(not in the last 20 yrs anyway)
and Faugheens time in the Neptune was approx 1second(6 lengths)  slower than Jezki

Of course Faugheen had already run four furlongs further than the horses in the champion.

@brassneck -- TNO jumping right is well-known and has been widely remarked on. Despite this, he is the leading British contender and might have won last year's Champion Hurdle had he not been badly hampered.

"timtin Jezki doesnt hold the fastest time from 4 out in the champion(not in the last 20 yrs anyway)
and Faugheens time in the Neptune was approx 1second(6 lengths)  slower than Jezki"

Yes but they both ran similar times from 4 out so clearly Faugheen is 2X more likely to win the CH then Jezki. At least that's what the mug punters backing Faugheen say.

Yes well the HYPE Faugheen was 6 lengths slower in recorded time than Jezki from 4 out, of course we all know that Faugheen remained absolutely at the same level as his 4 runs ago in the Neptune where he crashed 3 out losing how many lengths ? and stumbled at 2 out losing maybe another how many lengths ? and we all know Jezki didn't had a pacemaker to help him achieve those sectionals from 4 out, he did it all by himself unlike Faugheen who had ... wait Faugheen took the lead from 4 out so who helped him establish those fast sectionals ? well nvm. conclusion: Jezki has improved a ton on that last year run and is expected to replicate it in finest details this time around as he's a spring horse of course while Faugheen poor poor lad he's simply a hype who's going to eiter bomb or win and hasn't beaten anything so far ooohh so trendy stuff

Mar 3, 2015 -- 7:33AM, gutfeeling wrote:

Nothing can live with her on the gallops, That's set me up for a day of laughter, Thank you

But the race isn't run on the gallops

Gutfeeling

Tell Brassneck as he thinks a piece of homework (which I hope he actually witnessed with his own eyes btw) over god knows what distance with who knows what the jockeys were carrying weight wise on some polytrack is something to bring up when debating horse racing, Hilarious.

come on don't crush his dreams... whats wrong with you ?

comment, wasn't aimed at you

For 15 minutes only on saturday Laddies were pricing Faughine at 2-1 £25 maximum bet.

No worries Timtin or cricklenut2, I'm just playing around.

No worries Timtin or cricklenut2, I'm just playing around.

you can all relax if you have a bet in the CH,the breaking news or latest gossip is that Annie is going for the world,but I heard this in a bookies office so it could be a load of BS.

John Kettley on radio this afternoon saying it's going to be warm next week,no mention of Canadian ice blast hitting Cheltenham.

Define warm ?  12 degs is above average for the time of year,but its been 15-16 degs on a few festivals recently. Pretty warm last year

the race is on,high pressure heading for the weekend coming from the canaries and heavy rain heading in from the atlantic ocean to reach England on Monday evening Tuesday morning,looks like we are going to have the first photo finish of the week Monday afternoon,4/5 heavy rain 11/10 sunny and warm.

WILL WIN AGAIN !

To run in the Morgiana next month and then Kempton over Christmas.

would have to agree, if it's injury free should win, mtoy + tno getting on now, surely no improvement in them, and of the younger brigade Mullins has the potential improvers which he would run in another race , as he likes to scatter the festival and not have his good uns going against one another other.

would have to agree, if it's injury free should win, mtoy + tno getting on now, surely no improvement in them, and of the younger brigade Mullins has the potential improvers which he would run in another race , as he likes to scatter the festival and not have his good uns going against one another other.