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Don't know if it's been mentioned earlier in the thread but surely the 'trend' or stat that should worry Don Poli backers is the age factor - as a 6 year old it has a big ask to overturn a run now of 8 seven year olds on the trot winning the RSA. Only horse in last 12 years to win when being younger than 7 was Star De Mohaison in 2006 and it got a big weight allowance which is no longer. Only three winners since 1978 including SDM !!
This is a trend that seems, to me anyway, to have logic behind it. The RSA as we all know is tough race and it seems logical to me that younger horses are maybe not mature or developed enough to win it. I'm nt saying Don Poli cant be the exception but should he run, it doubt he'll be value at the likely SP |
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I looked back and not enough fancied horses aged 5 or 6 ran in the race to be significant. Look back at the past 4 runnings for example, 2 years ago we had a fair few 6yo and they ran well (2nd & 3rd to a future Gold Cup winner). Then the other 3 years had either none or a couple of unfancied ones. Factor in that a 5yo won it not too long ago and it's a non factor.
Always best to stick to form and opinions of a horses runs that season. |
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Long Run 11/4
Carruthers 13/2 What A friend 13/2 Pomme Tiepy 9/2 Air Force One 6/1 |
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Comply Or Die 3/1
L'Ami 4/1 Our Vic 11/8 There are a few 5/6 olds who were fancied to be fair. |
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I was talking about the 8 years of 7yo winners since the 5yo French horse Star De Mohison won. So those last 3 are prior to that. Our of the remainder Pomme Tiepy fell, while the others make up about a 58% adjusted chance of winning an RSA since them and that was in the 3 of last 4 years have had no 6yo sp below 20/1 while in 2013 and 2010 we've had a 6yo or 5yo our run their prices and come 2nd and 3rd.
Also it's interesting that a 6yo can go and break the Track Record and win the Gold Cup in 2010. So seeing that the last 8 years of 7yo winning tells no story with regards the chances of 6yo or 5yo given those who've run in the race in that time. They've actually outrun their prices |
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The last three were all six year olds so didn't receive wfa, so not sure why you wouldn't include them.
Unioniste went off fav a couple of years ago too. |
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Intresting opinions flying about on this thread,with all the stats as well being chucked around.
To be honest theres probably fair points being made by most to be fair. My take fwiw is that as long as a horse has been seen to run well this season,i would trust the trainer to know whats best for the horse to have him right on the big day,whether that means a prep run at some point or go straight there after a longer break.Neither would bother me at all. Nor would the age thing,as long as ive seen the horse and decided hes a big player. |
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If the trainer has got the T-Shirt like Mullins and Nicholls I trust them implicitly if the horse appears good enough.
Last year, Pat Fahy for instance with Morning Assembly was a different matter. |
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The twists and turns of the Festival build up - Paddy has shortened Don Poli for the 4 miler and pushed him out for the RSA. is Willie getting his own way?
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Bryan Cooper
VALSEUR LIDO ran well in the Flogas and he pleased me on his first start since November. Apache Stronghold had had another run since and I’d have no worries about taking him on again. In terms of Cheltenham, that’ll be up to Willie [Mullins], but Sunday’s trip seemed perfect for him and I see no reason to go up or down at this stage. |
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No Don Poli at Navan on Sunday, presume he goes straight there now? Hopefully, in the RSA as I'm on at 14s and 10s.
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DP had a run as late as the 20th February last year before the Festival. Only 3 weeks now though and I'd be surprised if they subject him to a grueller over fences.
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No prep then? Beautiful.
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An impressive performance from Very Wood today. He looks to be back to the horse that won at the Festival last year. I thought he jumped safely today and Cooper was smart getting a breather into him down the back. Giggy have some team of stayers, both hurdlers and chasers but I would not be surprised to see Very Wood join Don Poli in the RSA after that. Surely Noel Meade would like a runner in each of the JLT, RSA & the 4-miler. He already has Apache Stronghold and Wounded Warrior so RSA for Very Wood?
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Tricky decision - and that was a performance to really nuddy the waters as far as where all these Giggy horses go. Valseur, Wounded, Don P and Very Wood - Can't call it, but I would imagine that sends Valseur Lido to the JLT.
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Trainer said he would like Wwarrior in the RSA.
Hope he gets that,I've backed him. |
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What that means for Very Wood and Don Poli I really don't know.
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Where did you read that about Wounded Warrior? I've a big bet on for NH so would be gutted if he went RSA
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Apparently he said this afternoon,and also he would want very wood in the 4 miler according to Sporting life website. I did not see it myself,me mate just called me to tell me what he said.
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Said he's a young horse (ww)and he would prefer the lesser distance for him.
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Cooper mentioned the 4 miler for Very Wood. Meade just said he'd like to keep them apart. Very Wood backed for the 4 miler but WW still steady
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My initial reaction is to go for the 4 miler,but its up to Olearys what they want to do.
Meades comments Sporting Life website. |
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About Very Wood:
"He worked well on the flat at Punchestown with Apache Stronghold and Texas Jack, and that has been nicely boosted since. "He's a Cheltenham winner so he has to go back if he's alright. My initial reaction is to go for the four miler but it's up to Eddie and Michael (O'Leary) what they want to do." Meanwhile on another one of their charges, Wounded Warrior (a Naas Grade 2 victor), Meade commented: "He's in super form and may go for the RSA. He was worked to run here, and I've always thought he's a very good horse. "He's a bit weaker than Very Wood, and the Irish National is in the back of my mind but it would be asking a lot to go to Cheltenham first and then go there." In ante-post news Paddy Power go 8/1 (from 14) for the four mile National Hunt Chase, and 16/1 (from 33s) for the RSA Chase about Very Wood. (AM & EM) |
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Read it, sounds unlikely Wounded Warrior will go for NH Chase by the sounds of it. Hopefully Giggenstown run both in the 4 miler and keey Don Poli for RSA.
I have traded out of my Wounder Warrior bet on here. I've backed him nrnb with Boyles for RSA. |
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Ive found Meade to be pretty open and honest,i think that's what he wants mate.
Maybe the Gigginstown mob will have their own ideas,but to go against Meade would be folly imo,he knows his stuff. Don Poli either joins him in the RSA or joins VW in the 4 miler. I doubt Mullins will be so open about plans. |
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CV, how have you traded out of a big bet when there was barely anything there? Money gets hoovered up the second a trainer says something.
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Gigginstwon top owner at 5/2 looks better and better. Can't really understand why RR is fav as he won't have much for the handicaps, and if you take out his three or four shorties, he doesn't have that much depth IMO.
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Can't believe Gigginstown will take on Don Poli in the RSA with Wounded Warrior. Don Poli might not make the Festival but everything in the book says he's way ahead of Wounded Warrior on every count.
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Very Wood got a very handy race at last years festival and cant see him getting another. He'd be one of the last horses I'd consider backing. But as I often say I've been wrong before - many times.
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Don Poli is one of the bets of the meeting in the RSA.
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Only if hes in the race!! its not a given.
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Don Poli one of the bets of the festival for the RSA @ 4/1 when he's only had 2 runs and hasn't been seen since Christmas? I can't be having that at all to be honest.
If DP and The Young Master bypass the NH Chase then Very Wood could take some beating. |
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The lack of experience is a slight concern - the lack of a run since Xmas is of no concern. -
I was at Leopardstown at Xmas to witness his win in a high class Topaz - and believe me he is a magnificent animal to look at with huge scope - have a bit on him for the next 2 Gold Cup's as well. |
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Earlier in the year when the talk was of Don Poli going for the 4 miler Cooper played it down and said it would be RSA. He chose to ride Very Wood again yesterday over more fancied horse but then straight after the race suggested 4 miler for him, it's quite clear that Bryan Cooper wants to ride Don Poli in the RSA
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sintonian 15 Feb 15 18:46 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 25,768 | Blogger: sintonian's blog
CV, how have you traded out of a big bet when there was barely anything there? Money gets hoovered up the second a trainer says something. I had £15 @ 31.44 av odds on here, layed £42 @ 11.76 avg. (£2 @ 9.8, £3.74 @ 10.5 & £36.26 @ 12.0) I've done my dough on a 4 fold and trebles with him in with TUM, Zark, No More H, also £50 on the nose bet also lost. That's if he doesn't go for the 4 miler. Only way to be fully transparant in all betting is to take screenshots of all unsettled bets on all accounts for a date range of a year and post them on my site. I'll be doing that shortly so you can see it all then. I'll obviously summarise it all in a blog post. |
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CVByrne 16 Feb 15 20:24 Joined: 14 Mar 06 | Topic/replies: 4,762 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
sintonian 15 Feb 15 18:46 Joined: 21 Sep 04 | Topic/replies: 25,768 | Blogger: sintonian's blog Only way to be fully transparant in all betting is to take screenshots of all unsettled bets on all accounts for a date range of a year and post them on my site. I'll be doing that shortly so you can see it all then. I'll obviously summarise it all in a blog post. Why would you feel the need to do that CV? If people don't believe you had them bets, let them be. Fook them i would say. People come on here saying that they bet in the hundreds antepost, the realist in me and the proof on the graphs on the markets tell me that 90% of them are telling porkies and in actual fact their £350 bet is a £35 one! I bet at between £5 and £25 a pop, so what! |
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Agree Sea,but he is putting them on his website not on here.
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Yes, on my website STS. I get plenty of traffic and given I haven't done tipping for Cheltenham and won't be doing it because my anteost betting is quick decisions often on betfair at bigger prices, all round book building too that it's not possible to replicate for any people following my site. I'll need to solve that maybe next season. But at least people can see where my big bets are and if they feel like backing those horses themselves at whatever odds or offers they have that's up to them. I'll put up my Handicap picks I think as I'll place those closer to festival at 5 to 2 day decs.
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I'm querying it because CV did not seem aware of the latest news, hence his question to Budde, and he also promotes his site on here too, so it needs to be squeeky clean. But as I have said all along, there will always be that element of doubt if someone has the power of moderation.
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Thing with moderation control of the site is with the blog it shows the exact time it was edited it's a feature of wordpress, so the audit trail is there sint. With the non blog pages there wasn't. Plus I tweet my picks the evening before with link through to the blog post so we've got like about 16 to 20 hours between when blog is updated and racing starts. It's not like I'm competing with anyone, I started the site for my mates and friends of friends as a place where they could all get some betting tips tbh.
I think the tweet and blog post method is still the best method. Tweet with the horse names & prices for times I can't write a blog post before Sat morning. Link to pic of Wounded Warrior betfair bets below. More than happy to post any screenshots of bets I've placed as I'll be doing it all in gallery of my site soon anyway. http://i58.tinypic.com/35a69mw.jpg |