Cheltenham Festival
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Valseur Lido & Don Poli
Valseur Lido & Don Poli
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Paddy Power have pushed Don Poli out to 5/1 for 4miler and shortened Wounded Warrior to 6/1. In the RSA they have cut Don Poli to 3/1.
I'd say they think they know where he's going. |
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Appears that way,no brainer Don Poli imo to go for RSA. Also Coneygree maybe heading to Gold Cup.
Expect Don Poli to go off lot shorter than 5/1 at present. |
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Paddy Power like to think they have Mullins sussed - but they are guessing really because Willie won't have decided yet, leave alone spoken to O'Leary. Paddy was the bookie who has consistently endeavored to lay Vautour in The Arkle on the basis that UDS was a superstar. I think there is now a strong possibility that Vautour may actually pitch up for The Arkle after all - because Ricci really, really wants to run. 'Never be scared of one horse' is a phrase that we will hear a lot in the next few weeks. The only reason he's fav for the JLT is because Ruby wants to ride both. The fact that UDS has blown people's minds has made us forget that Vautour is an ideal Arkle horse. I hope Ricci sticks to his guns and insists on running rather than backing down. Not beyond the realms of possibility that UDS will trip over one of the downhill fences or not find a rhythm over the Prestbury undulations. If that occurs Ricci will be sick to watch Josses Hill and Clarcam fight out the finish. My opinion? Trust Townend to bring Vautour into the race. Worst case scenario - you get beat by a superstar and pick up 70K for coming second. Beats the hell out of getting outstayed in the JLT.
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Cant see it myself.... Its one thing having an opinion, its another altogether for an owner to tell the trainer what they should do. RR will have the utmost respect for WPM's opinion, and if WPM thinks the JLT is the right race for Vautour, I believe that is where he will go.
And PP deserve some credit imo, they have called it bang on all season. |
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"I think there is now a strong possibility that Vautour may actually pitch up for The Arkle after all - because Ricci really, really wants to run."
The strong vibes coming from WPM are that Vautour will have no problem staying a trip so the JLT would be a perfect stepping stone before a 3m+ campaign next season. I think the decision to go JLT has already been made by all parties so i was very surprised when you said Ricci really wants to run in the Arkle. What's your source for that statement? |
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I think all those who don't have decent prices about UDS would like to see him have something to race against. All those that do hold the fancy vouchers will be hoping that you are right and that Ricci backs down and runs in the JLT. Interesting that you feel the owner shouldn't have a say.
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Who said they feel the owner shouldnt have a say?
FWIW, I have my largest bet of the whole festival on Vautor for the Arkle, but have written it off. And having seen the way Vautor won last time over further, I think WPM is doing the right thing. |
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'The strong vibes coming from WPM are that Vautour will have no problem staying a trip so the JLT would be a perfect stepping stone before a 3m+ campaign next season. I think the decision to go JLT has already been made by all parties so i was very surprised when you said Ricci really wants to run in the Arkle. What's your source for that statement?'
Just what I had heard secondhand to be fair. I see the logic - Sir Des Champs and all that - but SDC wasn't a Supreme winner and we all know that if UDS had stayed hurdling or tipped up again in the Irish Arkle, Vautour would not even be considered for the Jewson - he would be evens fav for the 2 miler. Fair? |
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Sorry CCM - I wasn't having a pop. Just think that it would make for a great race if WPM let Vautour take his chance. But if their minds are made up then you have more up to date info than me.
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I dont think there is a racing fan on the planet who disagrees with that! UDS v Vautour would be the clash of the week... but I can genuinely see why they are doing it. UDS looks a star, and if Vautour is going to step up in trip, why not do it now? With Valseur Lido looking increasingly like a soft ground horse, WPM may have very little for the JLT. You cant blame him for wanting to try and win every race, and in this case I actually think he is giving the horses the best chance of winning their respective races.
As much as I want Vautour in the Arkle... if my life depended on him winning at the Festival, and I could choose where he ran, I would go for the JLT. |
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And I dont think their minds have been made up btw...
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I really don't see the JLT as a great stepping stone to the Gold Cup. Other than SDC you're looking at horses such as Noble Prince, Beneficcent, Dynaste, Taquin etc. Most of these jump out as horses who connections desperately wanted to be Gold Cup horses but turned out to be suspect over further.
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Yes but just because they essentially werent good enough for GC's and / or didnt stay, that doesnt mean Vautour will be the same does it? Just because he is running in that race? If he is up to winning a Goold Cup, that wont be changed whether he runs in the Arkle or JLT this year will it?
I think Rich Ricci just wants Festival winners.... and he wont be unhappy if Vautour wins the JLT rather than the Arkle. |
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Yes if UDS was a no-go for the Arkle then Vautour will almost certainly be running in it given its Grade 1 status. At this point though it doesn't really matter to all parties as the strong vibes tell me a campaign towards the 3m+ races is on the cards. I read the situation completely wrong early in the season as i thought Vautour was their CC horse for the future. Can't wait though to see him run in something like the KG. GL
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Isn't the JLT a grade 1 now??? I'm not sure the grade of the races is as significant as Mullins winning races
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I just realized the JLT is now a Grade 1 race. So much for that theory. :)
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I'm purely speculating but after seeing Mullins interview yesterday there appears to be a bit of a battle between the owners and himself!
He seems to want valseur lido in the RSA and don poli in the 4 miler and it seems the owners want lido in the JLT and poli in the RSA. Or have I got that wrong? And if I haven't who normally wins Mullins or giggy? |
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Its simple the owners will always get their way if they insist but every owner with any sort of sense would prefer to win a JLT to coming second in an Arkle. Very few people remember the 2nds at the festival unless they've done their dough on one. Its simple.
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mullins would have won the arkle last year if trainers always get their way
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I think Ricci and Wyllie are generally in awe of WPM and maybe for good reason. Wyllie definitely knows feck all about the game - he had horses (and lots of them) with Howard Johnson....QED, I think.
Gigginstown are a totally different kettle of fish and much as Willie might like to try and pull the wool over their eyes, he has little chance. They are much better informed/street wise and of course have a much wider pool of experts from whom to seek opinions and advice. If they have decided that Wounded Warrior is their NH Chase horse, then Don Poli runs in the RSA. Valseur Lido might contest the JLT but it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he will miss the gig if the ground rides fast. Sintonian has been saying for weeks (maybe months!)that he needs soft ground. That might just suit WPM too. |
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As a Kings Palace backer for the RSA I would love it Kevin Keegan style if DP does not get a prep run in... no chance of winning without one.
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You could have picked a better anaolgy sint....we know what happened to Keegan's dreams....
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Looking through previous Giggi runners at the festival, I was surprised how much they split them up.
You see them taking each other on in Ireland week in week out in G1's and G2's (like Valseur Lido vs Rule the World at the weekend, First Lieutenant taking on Road to Riches, First Lieutenant took on Sir Des Champs, Quito De La Roque beat Roi Du Mee in a G2 etc). But at the festival, all I can remember in G1's is Midnight Game and Trifolium together in the Supreme a few years ago. |
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O'Leary has always said they want a good one for each race if possible. It's why SDC and First Lieutenant were kept apart, first as novices and then in Ryanair and Gold Cup where they both came 2nd.
I won't be backing either Valseur Lido or Don Poli at Cheltenham though. Unless the former runs in the RSA. |
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Sint not sure about Don Poli having no chance re no prep,he has the best form in race from what I have seen.
I know he has few stats to overcome,but as we know they are broken at almost every Festival. |
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Also market on here suggests defo goes RSA not 4 miler,owners have winner of that with Wounded Warrior.
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The no prep is a non factor stevo. If a horse is good enough he'll win. He seems mature enough and jumps well. I just think he's too short in the betting.
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Price is too short if Coneygree runs, but I took 9/2 earlier today as a saver as I think Coneygree will probably go for Gold and expect DP to shorten if I'm correct. If both go for RSA I've got back up.
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Only 4/1 Don Poli now best price,will be 3/1 or less on day.
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CVByrne • February 9, 2015 9:26 PM GMT
The no prep is a non factor stevo. If a horse is good enough he'll win. He seems mature enough and jumps well. I just think he's too short in the betting.not if they are inclined to be a bit fresh its not, might really help the horse for the big day. |
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I had wanted to get on Don Poli for a while but am beginning to think he is too short for the RSA as it's a decent race in my eyes, and would be more than decent if Coneygree ran.
FWIW, I think people often make judgements too quickly and while those who say Valseur Lido is a soft-ground horse might be right, I think there has been an over-reaction to his run at the weekend. I think it's quite possible that he will come on for his first run in a good while more than expected, and his jumping is such an asset that he looks a right price now in the JLT. I still fancy him to hit the frame at least. |
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the no prep run has to be a factor imo
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The Don Poli situation is simple - WPM wants him in the NH, and it's simply a case of whether or not he can convince the owners to go down that route.
I'd be surprised if he didn't run in the RSA but I'm also sure I heard Michael O'Leary say after the Juvenile that he leaves plans to Willie and he'll decide. I'm not sure I'd fancy him in the RSA at the prices but think he'd be a banker in the NH - he'd just have way too much class for them all |
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the NH chase aint my cup of tea but don poli would be the one id back, day of the race, if he ran of course...
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Don Poli is in the 5 day decs for the ten up novice chase sunday
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Howdi 09 Feb 15 22:10 Joined: 13 Oct 04 | Topic/replies: 27,095 | Blogger: Howdi's blog
not if they are inclined to be a bit fresh its not, might really help the horse for the big day. Yep it's horse specific, but not "an all RSA horses need prep runs but Arkle, NH Chase, Ryanair & Gold Cup horses don't" kind of scenario some people seem to believe. Take Kauto Star, he improved massively when he was kept fresh rather than running at Ascot or Newbury as a prep. The top trainers know how to get them there. For me it's key of they are denied a prep by weather or a setback as opposed to a simple decision by the trainer that they'd prefer to go fresh. |
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Point me in the direction of a horse who has won the RSA with two runs and no run in the current season and then i'll agree it's ''no factor''. It's just plain daft to say a top trainer will get him ready, especially when talking about a guy who has a 6% strike rate over fences in the UK.
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Florida Pearl only had two chases. Not sure who trained him though!!!!! On only his 6th career start.
Don Poli had already had 8. |
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Your opinion of the Mullins ability to train chasers is fine. Its your opinion. Also again your opinion that 2 runs over fences isn't enough is again a valid opinion. But you realise Mullins has won the RSA before with a horse who's had only 2 runs over fences in Florida Pearl.
I just am pointing out this opinion where no run in the calendar year is only a factor for the RSA and not the Arkle or the Gold Cup or the Ryanair or the World Hurdle or etc.. is complete nonsense. There are enough races at Cheltenham to have each one having some kind of random pattern associated with it. I dislike blind belief in such things, I like people articulating opinion based on what they see. |
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Don Poli will run this weekend though.
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