Cheltenham Festival
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Irish Arkle
Irish Arkle
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im talking about a horse looming going well behind him. thats yet to happen.
Ah that's where our differing opinions come in. I think nothing ever will loom up going well on this horse coming to the last. (Bar Sprinter Sacre of old) |
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you think he's potentially up there with the likes of sprinter sacre?
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He can't be because the hard pulling is a flaw in his make up and it will catch him out...and too be honest you'd want it too...it's like, as a racing fan you wouldn't want to see a horse kick every fence out of the way and still win...you should want to see a horse master all the aspects of the game and if he can't do that...to suffer because of it....that's my opinion anyhow.
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He don't pull hard if the jockey just lets him get on with it.
No need to fight him he gets home well over 2m as it is. If there are better horses so be it, but just let the horse get on with it is how to get the best out of him. Game of opinions duffy,fair enough. Personally I want to see him jump well as he has so far bar one fence,and see if he gets caught or not. Certainly don't want him to suffer cos of his running style anyway. |
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I dont get the pull hard statement. He makes all and his only possible flaw in my opinion is that he does go so hard all the way if his fitness isn't bang on he could tire at the end. I think he will improve on better ground. We don't have long to find out how good he is. We all agree he's got two quality rivals in this race. We'll know if his racing style can really bury top horses long before the final fence.
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duffy you really are off track - thats the kindest way i can put it
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the pull hard statements are because ruby and barry both mentioned how much of a grip he takes. are you genuinely saying he settles in front?
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It's his style of racing, he goes hard at it from the front. He's not going the pace Ruby is telling him to go like many of Rubys front running wins on horses like Champagne Fever. Un De Sceaux goes his pace the whole way, lines up his fences himself and jumps them. Ruby is just a total passenger, as he's said.
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exactly, and he just pulls his way around. he is always very keen.
i'll be taking him on with gilgamboa as he looks to me to have the cruising speed to cope |
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I'm not touching the race, I'm just going to watch and enjoy it.
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for me i think the unknown gives us value. i can see how every horse in this race is value.
i'd like to see UDS win by a street for a new superstar to enter the division but think he's too short tomorrow |
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I think UDS will win very comprehensively. But I am not going near an odds on shot in a Novice Chase.
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i dont understand that logic.
three runner race and you think the front runner is potentially an elite steeplechaser surely its xmas 2016 come early! |
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listened to a podcast with robbie macnamara as guest earlier in the week. he said that un de sceaux is as good as he looks he has no doubts and he said he would have won last years champion hurdle had he ran. he said he rode against him on chase debut on a keen 1 pulling like mad over the first few fences and un de sceaux was still going away from him the whole time. basically said he goes like mad and just doesn't stop. his opinion is he has to fall tomoro and at the festival to not win either race. he was so bullish about how good he is. also said good luck to any horse trying to go with un de sceaux early doors because they simply won't get home. just thought id share this guys.
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I personally think he goes that fast its inevitable he will knuckle on landing every so often but when he doesn't he won't be doing much losing.
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It's down to return on investment and concentration risk Wicketd. How much do I have to bet on UDS to make decent return? Is it worth risking that much when defeat would also wipe out my very large Arkle bet on him. It would be a large amount to lose. He's also fallen in 1 of his 2 starts so that is another worry.
Combine it all and there's no point in touching him at 8/11, just not prices I back horses at. I'm 4/1 or above only these days, with the odd one around 3/1 |
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Anybody else feel that there could be some value to be had in the Arkle market before tomorrow's race? Two of the top 4 in the Arkle betting will lose tomorrow and if there is a convincing winner the bookies could cut the likes of Josses Hill and Vibrato Valtat.
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Nah, Irish Novices are vastly superior bunch than the English this season I feel.
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I agree you about the form CV but if UDS wins easily then you can see the other two possibly going for other targets (Gilgamboa more likely than Clarcam) and with very few other challengers I could see the 20s about Vibrato going. The Donny race today would suggest there isn't much between VV and JH and yet one is double the price.
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Vibrato Valtat would love the pace in the Arkle. He'd be a good e/w play at 20/1 I agree.
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Again I agree and that's why I have backed him, he's the only overpriced horse in the race IMO and if UDS does run at Cheltenham he certainly wouldn't hit the front too early (if at all). I can only see 5 runners turning up with a chance: UDS or Vautour, Clarcam, JH, VV and Gilgamboa (who if beaten easily tomorrow could go for the JLT).
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i cant work out price difference between clarcam and gilgamboa...clarcam gets weight, tomorrow and is shorter for the arkle , yet he the outsider tomorrow?
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Belief is Vautour ran no race lto and Ted Veale
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Belief is Vautour ran no race lto and Ted Veale
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Belief is Vautour ran no race lto and Ted Veale
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tell us again , Cv , lad
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Sorry some crazy multi post there
 Clarcam won't get his weight allowance at Cheltenham so that's 10l off his performances this season to factor in. |
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if vautour had won like clarcam, even getting 10lbs, he'd be evens for arkle
im far from convinced with vautour and we learnt nothing lto |
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Yes but Vautour ran in and won 3 grade 1's last season. Clarcam ran in the Fred Winter. So people know the ability is there for Vautour at the highest level. People don't know that of Clarcam.
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i get that, but hurdling and chasing are absolute worlds apart
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I still don't see why Clarcam is bigger than Gilgamboa tomorrow - he's 9lb better off with that one than he will be in March, yet Clarcam is shorter than Gilgamboa for the Arkle?
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agree tom see above same point
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There is an anomaly there alright. It might correct itself before tomorrow's race as punters realize the weight allowance won't be there at Cheltenham
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I can honestly say that I haven't looked forward to a horse race so much for a long long time and I include festival races in that...UDS provides such fascination whether you're with him or not.
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My sentiments entirely duffy. This is by far his toughest assignment over fences and maybe of his entire career.
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Going drying all the time at Leopardstown, so we may get a few answers to the "does he prefer soft/heavy ground" debate.
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Yep,questions being answered today for sure.
Clarcam well in today......can get 20 for the Arkle double with PP. |
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Aeroplane
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UTTER MONSTER
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agree cv that was so impressive
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