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Yeh lads,its very exciting for sure.
Front running catch me if you can over 2m,dont get any better for me. |
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I honestly don't know what Apache Stronghold is doing in this race or what they are doing even contemplating two miles for him. His run over Christmas was quite impressive and given he wasn't beaten far and pulled well clear of the rest, the only race for him is the the RSA.
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I honestly don't know what Apache Stronghold is doing in this race or what they are doing even contemplating two miles for him. His run over Christmas was quite impressive and given he wasn't beaten far and pulled well clear of the rest, the only race for him is the the RSA.
Prize money SYT? |
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Fair enough prize money but the owner is hardly that badly off considering she has around a dozen horses in training. I'd prefer to see him running over a more adequate trip in preparation for the Festival.
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He has the perfect profile and dosage for the RSA. I'm devastated he's dropping so far back in trip as he was one I was really lining up to bet on
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Meade can be a bit clueless like that at times,Ran Realt Dubh over the wrong distance for pretty much his whole career
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I'd be shocked if Apache Stronghold runs here.
Looks made for the Moriarty and a rematch with Valseur Lido. The presence of Don Poli could put them off the RSA but the distance of the JLT should be fine. |
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Yeh, JLT for Apache imo, that's his distance from what ive seen.
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Is AS definitely going to Cheltenham? Missed the gig last year but I can't remember why.
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had a setback if I remember correctly....I backed him for the Neptune.
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Had a setback which ruled him out last year FF. I don't know if he'll definitely go but the alternative is the Powers Gold Cup and given how he ran there in the Drinmore connections may be reluctant to go back to Fairyhouse. Of course, the way he jumped out to the right can probably be largely put down to him following Real Steel but still it's something that may influence them.
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I asked Simon Rowlands some questions after the Topaz. If you don't know him he's head of R&D at timeform and a probably the main man on sectionals.
My take is that Don Poli out sprinted AS rather than outstayed him and this was his response regarding the race: '69.6s race sect and 104.6% was fastest chase finish in both absolute and relative terms over the 4 days, if not by a lot.' Based on their dosage profiles and age Id rather back AS in the RSA than DO |
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You'll have to elaborate on that third line Tory for anyone who doesn't know about times, etc, which includes me.
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What I'd take from that Tory is that Don Poli is a beast
![]() For what it's worth I did think at the time it was more than just a case of AS being outstayed. I thought Cooper looked confident even when AS ranged along side and Don Poli went away well. Two very good horses and I fancy both will be involved in finishes if they go to Chelt. |
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Can you elaborate SYT?
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What are the figures of 69.9s and 104.9% supposed to be telling us Tory?
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If you mean the bit with percentages in etc, then roughly speaking you'd expect a horse to finish at 100% in a truly run race.
In fast run races it will be lower as they have used up far more energy in the early part of the race. What simon is saying is that DP finished the race far faster than you would expect. This would lead you to believe that it was a slowly run race which then turned into a sprint for home. The final sectional that DP put in was a faster time than any other horse did in any other chase over the 4 day festival, including those run over shorter distances. DP's dosage profile is a) out of kilter with the last 10 winners of the RSA and b) more biased towards speed than stamina Or, as Slabster says, he could just be a beast!! |
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Sorry, was writing this as you replied!
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Thanks Tory. It's certainly a different view to the popular theory that Don Poli is only a stayer !
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It is a and its one of the main reasons I won't be backing Don Poli in the RSA and want that to be the target for AS!
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Only 3 declared now.
UDS 4/5 Gilgamboa 11/4 Clarcam 4/1 Hope there isn't much between them on Sunday so it keeps the intrigue for cheltenham. |
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Be amazed if UDS doesn't walk this. Wins on the bridle and cut into Evens for Arkle.
Robbie McNamara on Final Furlong podcast was raving about UDS, thinks it really is a machine. So do I |
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His 2 opponents are no mugs.
If he beats these easily hes very good for sure. |
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Neither are Gemix or Smashing tbf...
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Be very interesting to see what Cooper and McCoy make of it during the race,at some stage I would think they are gonna have to go quicker earlier than they would probably like to.
Its fascinating stuff. |
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Those French races with Gemix told us something about UDS that a lot don't really mention,his ability to stay further and finding off the bridle.
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I still like Clarcam a lot in this.
It may be that UDS is a machine and nothing can get near him, but I can't help feeling a brilliant jumper who won a Grade 1 by 17l over C&D last time, and has been said to have improved since, and gets 10lb from his two rivals on Sunday, should not be the outsider. 4/1 looks really generous to me. I am a big Gilgamboa fan, but can't really see why he's shorter (and quite significantly) than Clarcam. The trip, especially with UDS putting huge pressure on from the get-go, might be too short, and he's a bigger price for the Arkle than Clarcam, in which he'd be 9lb better off. I know that some of that is factored into the fact that he has the JLT as another option, but the question remains - if people think he might not have the speed for 2m and ideally head for the longer race at Cheltenham, why is he shorter than Clarcam when he has to concede so much weight on Sunday? |
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Its a trappy race for sure and Mr Walsh is going to have to get the fractions right out in front imo. For sure these 2 rivals on Sunday are far superior to anything he has ever raced before. He could so easily hit the wall out in front.
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No better jockey at doing that STS, although I do wonder exactly how much influence Ruby will have.
The horse just seems to go off and basically run quick the whole way,right to the line. He stays further STS so I don't see any hitting the wall,but its possible the others are better animals,and will go past him. About time we found out. |
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If Un De Sceaux is as good as some of his fans are saying, I don't think tactics will come into it. He knows one way of running and there's only one way to ride him.
I'd even say 4/5 for this race is a far better price than 2/1 for the Arkle. I know his two main rivals in the Arkle betting are meeting him here. But it's a 3 runner race at home on ground that will be soft enough for him. There's a far greater chance of something going wrong at Cheltenham than here in my opinion. Faster confitions, bigger field, tougher fences, maybe something pressuring him in the lead, travelling away from home, etc. |
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What also intrigues me is if he wins, then what price will he become for the Arkle? Depends on the level of comfort I suppose and how he jumps and indeed how his rivals jump, one of Clarcam or Gilgamboa falling early will probably lead to a somewhat inconclusive outcome for example.
On the other hand, were he to be defeated or were he to fall again, surely he'll edge out in price and Vautour might even re-enter the picture again. I'm glad as well connections of Apache Strongold have seen some sense and decided not to run. The PJ Moriarty and a rematch with Valseur Lido is a far more sensible target although I maintain staying at 3 miles is the right thing to do. |
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If he wins at 4/5, it then depends on the manner of victory with regards to arkle price. If we take the view you'd still get 6/4 on the day, that's a combined price of 7/2. Obviously better than 2/1.
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Apache Stronghold was never a likely runner, probably would only have run had some of the big guns been pulled out.
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If he wins sunday and arkle at 4/5 both races, that's stil better than 2/1. They're talking about this horse like he's a peak sprinter sacre, and you'd want him to be at these prices. Clarcam beat vautour, is getting weight, yet they're talking like it's a point and click job. I'm intrigued. Not backing him though.
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Fascinating race, the first 4 or 5 fences Walsh is a passenger and the horse burns too much energy that's for sure...bearing that in mind, will the quality of these 2 rivals be close enough to him late on to force him to have to really pick up again and properly race.
From a purists point of view, for all his potential brilliance, he is flawed because of his over-racing, my gut feeling is at some point, the level of opposition exists that will tip the balance against him and expose the flaw. |
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Thing is the 2 behind are gonna have to go quicker earlier than they would like knowing this is no back number in front!! so what will they have left??
But Yes Duffy,one of the most intriguing things for me,can he do what he does normally?, with the better opposition,and if not can he battle when they come to him???. |
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Will be 1.3 turning for home,great betting race even though only 3 runners !
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im a fan of the horse but i'm not so sure its gonna be as easy as people think.
un des sceaux has had smashing and midnight game make inroads on him but obviously he was too good. he hasnt had a good one loom up behind him yet with walsh then needing to decide what to do. walsh has held him together against inferior opp so far. the question for me is can he change that gear if required and kick on/quicken, or does he just gallop gallop gallop. it's his biggest test to date and i'll be opposing for sunday at odds-on. |
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he hasnt had a good one loom up behind him yet with walsh then needing to decide what to do. walsh has held him together against inferior opp so far.
The horse has had that happen in France when he beat Gemix, he battled. The thing with UDS and what makes this race fascinating is how do AP & Cooper ride the race? If you try track UDS the whole way your horse will be on empty after the 2nd last. But then if you let him too much of a lead you wont catch him. People say he hasn't had a test, but the horse gives absolutely everything every time he gets on a race track. So to him tomorrow could just be a race like any other, jump off and go hard to the rails the whole way. I think he buries his rivals by half way and I think the way he races could see some stellar ratings. He's ever so exciting and I really do think and hope we see him at his very best tomorrow. |
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that was different tho cv. barry said how unbelievably keen uds was through that race, and he didnt battle imo, he lasted. gamix was ahead straight after the post.
im talking about a horse looming going well behind him. thats yet to happen. and im not convinced he's this mad machine who can see everything off. what i find interesting is willie saying how hard he is on himself and needs time to get over races. he's had all visually easy races other than that one in france. |