Cheltenham Festival
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JOCI Club's 2015 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
JOCI Club's 2015 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
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Initial trend rankings for the World Hurdle:
Saphir Du Rheu47 79% Lieutenant Colonel74 72% Zarkandar82 72% Reve De Sivola47 59% Dedigout25 55% Zaidpour25 54% Aubusson32 49% Rock On Ruby70 49% Whisper70 46% At Fishers Cross26 44% Cole Harden47 41% Jetson74 38% More Of That103 36% Rule The World32 34% Seeyouatmidnight26 32% Un Atout74 32% Monksland49 32% Annie Power313 31% Briar Hill25 24% Pont Alexandre729 23% Beat That70 21% Blue Fashion110 18% King Of The Picts25 17% Un Temps Pour Tout47 17% Abbyssial26 14% Tiger Roll26 14% Back In Focus25 6% |
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Noticed that Milborough won the Eider today. Looking back to last year's Festival trends he came out top of the ratings, just ahead of Midnight Prayer, the eventualy winner of the National Hunt Chase; the former gave me a very good run for a 40/1 shot, but as compensation I did back the winner too.
Milborough38 84% Midnight Prayer31 82% |
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I think it's better that you do the championship races first JOCI because these fields have pretty much solidified their runners so you'd be wasting some of your time on the novice events.
Lt Colonel  |
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There's a fine balance to be struck as I can't afford to leave the bigger fields alone, as I need to get as much data into the spreadsheet as possible before the Tuesday, as it can take ages to sort out the handicaps, and I'll literally be there finishing them on the morning of the races in some cases.
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Initial trend rankings for the Champion Hurdle:
Jezki44 89% Hurricane Fly44 81% Faugheen74 78% Arctic Fire44 78% The New One52 76% Vaniteux68 53% Un De Sceaux44 51% Purple Bay74 47% Kitten Rock24 44% Annie Power311 42% Irving24 42% Tiger Roll24 41% Sign Of A Victory24 41% Garde La Victoire38 35% Plinth44 30% Bertimont52 29% |
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Purely out of interest Joci, do you bet entirely based on these percentages or is this just a guideline and then you look into form etc based on the top section?
Please to see Jezki come out on top for CH btw  |
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Use the ratings to guide my selections and narrow down the field to a more manageable number.
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I'm always interested in people who talk about 'studying' for Cheltenham from the end of January and what they really mean and what they do.
It's pretty obvious what this means re yourself and thanks for sharing your work with us. |
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Initial trend analysis for the 4m National Hunt Chase:
Ballyculla18 88% Doing Fine31 88% Knockanrawley17 85% Smiles For Miles38 85% Very Wood23 84% Broadway Buffalo24 79% Return Spring38 79% Royal Palladium26 79% The Job Is Right23 79% The Last Samuri26 79% Thunder And Roses23 79% Top Totti38 79% Cadeau George23 78% Cogry31 78% Wounded Warrior52 74% Vivaldi Collonges31 73% Sego Success59 71% Minella On Line18 69% Grand Vision59 68% Perfect Candidate45 68% The Crafty Butcher17 68% The Ould Lad26 68% Theatre Queen43 63% The Young Master80 61% Mosspark45 56% Perfect Gentleman74 56% Son Of Suzie39 56% Tara Road18 56% I Need Gold31 55% Heathfield44 53% Don Poli71 50% Valseur Lido30 49% Apache Jack23 44% Band Of Blood74 34% Lower Hope Dandy101 34% Line D´Aois46 33% Vroum Vroum Mag54 33% Cause Of Causes47 31% |
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What does the number immediately after the horses name mean?
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Number of days since last run before the Festival race in question.
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Massive prices on the top 4 there, have you backed them yet?
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legendary thread.
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Not backed anything yet, waiting til running plans become more certain.
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JOCI your thread for last years festival inspired me to commence my own stat analysis a month ago.
It takes a lot of time and effort to put together, and produce the large-field analysis, and that's before this weeks handicaps spring to life with Wednesdays announcement of the weights. There are 14 completed races now, and will hit into the handicaps Thursday onwards, at least the top 30 in the betting/handicap weights in each race. Using ageing of the 10 year analysis, giving more credit to the recent years trends than those of 7-10 years ago, and I must be using some stats that you aren't (or vice versa) as some races are coming out a little different, and some are similar. I will publish shortly, and be really interested in the comparisons. Its already highlighted some decent priced bets for NRNB, backed up by video study to sense check the visuals with the written form, which for me is an equally important part of the analysis. I've seen your curr |
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Interested to see what you come up with....we can compare notes. Can send you my stuff closer to the time.
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I do something similar re the trends, then throw in breeding analyses and speed figures (Why? Because no one thinks these are important).
I don't deliver a ranked shortlist or any percentage figures like JOCI - it's a bit more intuitive, seeing how the different information sets come together - and then of course it comes back to price anyway, but it's really interesting to see how other minds work and even better when meaningful data is shared in this way. So, er, thanks and keep up the good work! |
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Paul Jones write up entitled "Emerging class factor" in the Cheltenham festival betting guide maybe worth a read.
Gives food for thought on how handicaps are changing in terms of quality. |
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Collateral form is worth keeping an eye on during the Festival. After day one, it's worth looking at the horses that have won or run well and then looked back through their recent runs to see what might have run well against them or beaten them recently. Sounds obvious I know, but in the heat of the battle, it's easy to forget.
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Ditto trainers whose horses run well
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Okay JOCI, likewise with sharing my stats
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Preliminary Ryanair Chase trend ratings:
Cue Card76 94% Don Cossack56 81% Champagne Fever26 78% Menorah76 73% Carlingford Lough32 72% Roi Du Mee19 72% Taquin Du Seuil33 71% Johns Spirit76 69% First Lieutenant32 68% Uxizandre33 67% Boston Bob32 66% Ma Filleule26 65% Hidden Cyclone39 64% Texas Jack26 64% Wishfull Thinking76 64% Ballycasey26 58% Djakadam49 57% Balder Succes26 56% Captain Conan365 56% Double Ross33 53% Wonderful Charm76 50% Hunt Ball61 49% Eduard95 49% Savello53 49% Twinlight18 48% Ballynagour103 48% Module75 43% Rajdhani Express19 43% Caid Du Berlais70 39% Bright New Dawn26 34% Rathlin18 31% Turban30 29% Third Intention34 29% Baily Green30 17% No Buts89 9% |
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Thanks for your efforts, Joci. Been looking forward to seeing this
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Thanks Joci too for all your effort - very interesting.
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cheers joci, its not true what they say about stoke city
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Here are the early trend results for the latest field for the Champion Bumper:
Vigil72 85% Montana Belle116 83% Western Rules90 79% Turcagua95 78% Bordini87 78% Supasundae82 78% Livelovelaugh94 77% Jetstream Jack69 70% Golan Lodge18 70% Moon Racer144 70% Pylonthepressure32 69% Justanother Muddle351 68% Up For Review17 67% See The World41 63% De Name Escapes Me20 62% Imada119 62% Bellshill72 61% Rushvale75 60% Western Way548 60% Barters Hill32 60% Davy Doubt21 60% General Principle38 59% Modus340 58% Neatly Put72 58% Broughtons Rhythm27 58% Yanworth82 57% Norman The Red105 53% Ok Corral33 52% Au Quart De Tour59 52% Bay Of Freedom136 52% Stone Hard48 52% Work Du Breteau304 52% Ghost River18 51% Nutcracker Prince33 51% Lip Service31 50% O O Seven31 44% Sugar Train21 44% West Approach25 43% Robert´s Star114 43% Dueling Banjos30 41% Final Nudge32 41% Altior32 35% Theo´s Charm25 35% Wait For Me25 35% Always Lion25 31% Oscar Blue18 17% |
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Hello Joci. I read this thread with interest every year and take a similar approach myself, although without weighting more recent trends to be honest. I wondered if you would be re-running the supreme trends. after taking out horses likely to run elsewhere and accounting for runs this week, i have sub lieutenant coming out relatively high at a huge price. exchange prices suggest the neptune is more likely but it would be a step up in trip.. be interesting to see if your rating of it changes
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andri - yes, closer to the time I will eliminate any horses not declared, and update any runs for the remaining field to try and get the stats as accurate as possible, and come up with a final field shortlist.
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Cheltenham Club Novices Chase trends give the current preliminary result (without yet factoring in the 'SP' information:
Horizontal Speed59 85% Killala Quay60 74% Oscar Fortune24 73% Wilton Milan16 73% Generous Ransom45 72% Garrahalish45 72% Smart Freddy30 70% Knock House74 67% Flaming Dawn17 66% Gores Island40 65% Canuspotit19 65% Cold March24 65% Gorsky Island83 64% Dromnea23 63% Traffic Fluide29 58% Smokey Joe Joe17 58% Stellar Notion45 57% Champagne James16 57% Back To Bracka28 57% Creepy59 56% Little Jon45 56% Ceasar Milan32 56% Irish Cavalier45 56% Golden Hoof73 55% Tara Road18 55% Band Of Blood16 53% Dogora17 53% Cocktails At Dawn59 52% Thomas Crapper32 52% Allez Vic31 51% Perfect Candidate45 50% Vivaccio52 49% Bold Henry59 49% Keltus101 49% Leap Dearg65 48% Bishops Road16 48% Gallant Tipp16 48% Ubaltique48 48% Monkey Kingdom88 46% Legal Exit58 46% Rocky Wednesday16 44% Crookstown12 42% Mister Hotelier73 41% Keel Haul24 41% Cloudy Bob17 40% A Tail Of Intrigue74 40% Astigos45 39% Art Of Payroll31 38% Somethingwonderful24 38% Neverownup13 33% Great Link15 33% Minella Definitely40 31% The Bosses Cousin48 31% Buck Magic74 29% As De Ferbet69 28% Rum And Butter109 26% Draycott Place16 25% Archie Meade24 25% |
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Trend ranking for Tuesday's Ultima Solutions Handicap hase. Still a massive field declared, but this is how it looks so far:
Gevrey Chambertin83 94% Cowards Close25 93% Azure Fly26 89% Ned Stark38 87% Shutthefrontdoor120 86% Indian Castle22 83% Mendip Express32 82% Le Reve17 82% Grand Vision59 82% Barrakilla87 81% Masters Hill30 80% Living Next Door73 80% Annacotty45 79% Lamb Or Cod88 77% According To Trev83 77% Heaney51 77% The Last Samuri26 76% Sixty Something29 76% Carole´s Destrier24 73% Third Intention32 72% Glenquest27 72% Corrin Wood52 71% Buddy Bolero24 71% Gallant Oscar47 71% Foxbridge23 71% Vintage Star52 70% Tinker Time18 70% Super Duty38 69% Smart Freddy30 69% Clondaw Knight24 68% Pendra102 68% Diocles26 68% Gold Bullet38 67% Godsmejudge17 65% Hadrian´s Approach38 64% Sausalito Sunrise74 64% Carraig Mor52 64% Alvarado20 64% Golden Chieftain30 64% Ardkilly Witness17 64% No Secrets254 63% Black Thunder45 63% Bose Ikard107 63% Spring Heeled17 63% Theatrical Star38 63% Guess Again234 63% Dursey Sound83 63% Rolling Aces68 62% Theatre Guide24 62% Knock A Hand22 59% Irish Cavalier45 59% Vino Griego45 58% What A Warrior101 58% Easter Day17 57% Usuel Smurfer51 57% The Package94 57% Tenor Nivernais17 57% Sadler´sflaure28 56% Drop Out Joe80 56% Grand Jesture73 56% Firm Order32 56% The Druids Nephew45 55% Samingarry22 55% American Spin32 54% Mon Parrain68 52% Roalco De Farges94 51% Buywise28 51% Cape Tribulation24 51% Bless The Wings119 50% Standing Ovation88 50% Tap Night17 50% Make A Track47 50% Monbeg Dude24 49% Kruzhlinin37 48% Saroque25 48% Shangani24 43% Benbane Head59 43% Drumshambo40 43% Royal Player45 42% I Have Dreamed109 41% Ballyoliver24 41% As De Ferbet69 41% Grandads Horse45 38% Renard17 36% Cause Of Causes47 36% Lost Legend45 35% No Planning52 30% |
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Good work Joci. Backed Gevrey myself in this (nrnb), so glad he comes out top on your list - probably 50/50 whether he goes for this or the Kim Muir.
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Good stuff Joci.........hope you're close to the mark with a few of them
 , and I hope you've got a few of them well wrong  |
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Hopefully some of the former, but definitely plenty of the latter.
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Very best of luck
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Update to the Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase following the announcement of the weights:
Quantitativeeasing38 69% Any Currency89 67% Roi Du Mee18 66% Sire Collonges117 65% Duke Of Lucca89 62% Uncle Junior89 55% Toutancarmont38 55% Hey Big Spender25 52% Current Exchange24P 50% Rose Of The Moon27 45% Chicago Grey108 44% Guess Again235 44% Pasquini Rouge38 41% Imperial Circus89 37% Ipsos Du Berlais38 34% Estoril95 33% Soudain30 32% Charingworth31 31% Dogora18 31% Wayward Frolic32 31% Rivage D´Or101P 26% Are Ya Right Chief339 25% Scotswell18 25% Master Rajeem45 20% Nuage D´Ainay55 20% Union Jack D´Ycy62 20% Ice ´N´ Easy313 19% Gallo´s Star24 12% |
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Great thread JOCI, I will look in again nearer the off. It could be an ideal thread for swinging my decision one way or the other when I'm torn between a few horses.
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Joci out of interest were all the winners you had these last two years your top rated horse or were they in the top 3 or 4 ie in the bold type?
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Not always top rated but in top 2 or three. I just bold the horses for illustration. Sometimes they won't be declared on the morning of the race, and then others who may be below them originally come into play. That happened a couple of years ago with Golden Chieftain I think, he was up there but just ouside the highest top rated, then there were defections, and on the morning, he became a bet. I will have maybe 2 bets in each race, and sometimes more in the big price handicaps. Might have a bit of fun this year, and add some reverse exactas including the top rated horsese to my portfolio.
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I won't be able to post up all my bets due to time constraints, as I'm normally hell for leather on the morning of the races finishing off the handicaps.
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Thanks for the clarification Joci, Ilook forward to seeing the final ratings
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