Cheltenham Festival
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JOCI Club's 2015 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
JOCI Club's 2015 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
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It will hopefully all come together in a mad rush in the last couple of days (and on race mornings themselves).
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JOCI,
Glad we are on the same stats page in the Cross Country, I have Quantitativeeasing well clear, and a definite bet. TOP RATED QUANTITATIVEASING 100.00% SECOND TOP SIRE COLLONGES 80.70% THIRD TOP ANY CURRENCY 75.30% FOURTH TOP UNCLE JUNIOR 74.80% The figures above are if the horse starts in the first 3 in the betting, if he doesn't he srops to 89%, which is still a distance clear of 2nd Top. |
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Champion Hurdle Stat Results similar too.
TOP RATED THE NEW ONE 95.00% SECOND TOP JEZKI 91.10% THIRD TOP ARCTIC FIRE 78.60% FOURTH TOP FAUGHEEN 78.30% BAR 70.30% I have backed Faugheen at 7/1, after Punchestown last April, so I hope his lack of hurdling runs, and absence since December are stats he can overcome. I would love to see a superstar hurdler crowned on the 10th March. |
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Got to be honest, don't see how either of you have quantitativeeasing top rated. Hasn't won over 3m+ or done well in a XC at chelt or punchestown
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My stats on the race are based on.
Irish Runner First 3 in the Betting Ran in Calendar Year Ran December Chelt Race 8 to 10 years of age 126-150 OR Won or Placed at Chelt or Punchestown X-C Fences The 3M+ win stat isn't a key one compared to these. |
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Fair play. Im in deep on any currency with sire Collonges being my back up so maybe I'm a bit blinded!!
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@deepingfox only a great horse can overcome stats and I'll be happy if Fly wins as well as that'll put an end to his class relative to the his generation(5-10 years). I do wonder why are your stats showing Arctic Fire ahead of Faugheen ? It seems unreliable..
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This is a quality fred but imo price of previous winners is daft to use as a trend.
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no you're not Tory,i would be surprised if one of them don't win.
Top rated on those stats wont stay......imo. |
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When was the last time he actually won a race?? And never over this sort of distance.
I agree this is a good thread and I admire the hard work put in,but there are some races that are just too simple to work out a very short list,the x country is one. |
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If you look at the cross country percentages, the top rated horse has a percentage that would be way down the field in most other races, so this suggests it's now no longer a tremendously reliable trends race (since the Bolger horses, Spot etc, retired).
Last year, it gave Sizing Australia as the top rated (which I was a little sceptical of) and Balthazar King as 2nd top rated on 64% (which I was much more comfortable with). So all the comments above are fair ones. |
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Fair play JOCI.
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Darn good thread though, even if im not really a stats person, I still appreciate it when people make the effort to assist others.Just never know what you might read on here,and im sure its provided winners for people over the years.
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I personally think Roi Du Mee is a really interesting one in the Cross Country. His Bobbyjo run is miles clear of anything in the field, and it doesn't bother me too much that he's never ran a cross country race before - this time last year he was in the mid 160's.
Top weight doesn't bother me too much either as Garde Champetre was able to lug top weight round loads of times in this. Whilst he's not as good as he was, he's not declining as much as others in the race, proved by a top weight G2 win last time out. Don't know if RDM is an intended runner, or if he'll take to the obstacles, but if he is and he does, I think he'd laugh at this lot. Had a little bit near 20's on here for him. |
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Think This is A Specialists Race And Experience is A Vital Ingredient So You Should Be Concerned Wellchief
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I get that but imo if you're good enough you're good enough. Balthazar had never completed a x country race before he won it in 2012.
For some if gives them a new lease of life and some just don't take to it. At the price I think its worth the risk. |
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Updated World Hurdle ratings:
Saphir Du Rheu47 85% Lieutenant Colonel74 72% Zarkandar82 72% Reve De Sivola47 65% Dedigout25 62% Zaidpour25 61% Aubusson32 55% At Fishers Cross26 50% Rock On Ruby70 49% Cole Harden47 47% Whisper70 46% Rule The World32 40% Jetson74 38% Monksland49 38% Seeyouatmidnight26 38% Un Atout74 32% Un Temps Pour Tout47 32% Annie Power313 31% Briar Hill25 30% More Of That103 27% Pont Alexandre729 23% King Of The Picts25 23% Beat That70 21% Abbyssial26 21% Tiger Roll26 21% Blue Fashion110 18% Back In Focus25 13% Lieutenant Colonel might even rate higher if he usurps Un Temps Pour Tout and break into the top 4 in the betting. |
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Timtin, Arctic Fire's two stats that beat Faugheen's, are "ran in calendar year" and "ran between 10 and 25 times over hurdles".
I wouldn't say the stats are unreliable, they are just an expression of trends., not tips directly. I would use them to augment your own picks, therefore if you fancied Arctic Fire Each-Way for instance, then the stats wouldn't put you off him. My own fancy has been Faugheen for a long, long time, I hope he is the real deal and romps home. I wont back against him in this race whatever the stats. I will use the stats in other races, particularly to support a fancy I already have in a race. @deepingfox only a great horse can overcome stats and I'll be happy if Fly wins as well as that'll put an end to his class relative to the his generation(5-10 years). I do wonder why are your stats showing Arctic Fire ahead of Faugheen ? It seems unreliable.. |
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are you using Proform software(I used to have a license many years ago..) for your stats ? if so is can you try to find out how many 3 mile winners over hurdles have won/placed in the CH after they've won that 3m hurdle event?
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None i imagine,without spending loads of time, re winning that 3 mile novice, then winning/placed in Champion Hurdle.
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Timtin,
No software, just hard slog on manual inputs, like JOCI. I would imagine both of us know that most Champion Hurdle contenders wouldn't have ever tried 3M over hurdles. It wouldn't be a trend stat anyone would use, because of that. Faugheen wont be doing a "Sea Pigeon", I think Ruby (hopefully) will be pushing him on entering the straight, to try to drive the finish out of the rest of them. Win or Lose, in my betting, I prefer to watch races with no hard luck stories, and the best horse winning, its the best way to use visual form to base your future betting plans upon. I use stats as a back up to my own visual form selections, not stats alone. |
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jocci..interesting thread ..if you back min 2 horses a race and in bigger hcaps up to 4..could you not end up backing 60 plus horses in the week...what profit was there last year?
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jocci..interesting thread ..if you back min 2 horses a race and in bigger hcaps up to 4..could you not end up backing 60 plus horses in the week...what profit was there last year?
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timberman - for someone who spends a lot of time analysing the races for Cheltenham, I'm not a huge punter, and don't bet high stakes, and I don't rigidly monitor my profit / loss as a result, but the last two years have yielded a decent net profit, 2013 in particular. I also don't bet level stakes, and do a bit of each way now and then. I actually have been treating it as more of an intellectual exercise / test, to see if what I'm doing can pick winners / placed horses on a regular basis. If you can get a couple of winners up in the big handicaps, then you've made your money for the week. I've done it for two years now (my 'enhanced' trend analysis), and it's worked well, but I'm fully prepared to have a shocker at some point, and am aware that two years worth of good results is nothing in the overall scheme of things. It's a bit of fun (for me at least, maybe not for my long suffering wife), and I like sharing information etc, and hope if anyone can get a few winners, then great, and if people end up backing losers as a result, then they don't apportion too much blame to me.
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What a nice bloke. Good on yer.
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Good read again JOCI.
I seem to remember you mentioning that you used the Kings Head in Cleeve for breakfast. Will you be doing that this year? If so I will pop in and say hello. |
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Sawyer - we always have a sumptous breakfast in the house we stay at. In the evenings we usually frequent the Royal Oak in Cleeve for meal and beers (apart from Wednesday when it's Taj Mahal curry night), and ocasionally pop into the Kings Head depending on how busy it is.
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Supreme Novices Hurdle
After the latest declaration stage, here are the rankings for the Festival opener: Nichols Canyon 90% Outlander 85% Bentelimar 85% Tell Us More 83% Qewy 82% Shaneshill 77% Velvet Maker 77% Jollyallan 74% Seedling 70% Alvisio Ville 65% Sizing John 64% Some Plan 63% Douvan 59% Aso 54% L´Ami Serge 51% McKinley 46% Okotoks 30% Looks to be going very much against public opinion here and opposing the hot favourite / second favourite. Don't think Nicholls Canyon will run, so not entirely certain yet what the selction(s) will be. Will post updates on the other Tuesday races later. |
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Arkle Chase
At the latest declaration stage, here are the trend rankings: Vautour51 84% Un De Sceaux44 83% Vibrato Valtat31 83% Josses Hill32 71% Three Kingdoms45 69% Clarcam44 60% Top Gamble31 52% Chris Pea Green65 46% Adriana Des Mottes30 44% Melodic Rendezvous17 42% Dunraven Storm81 42% Sgt Reckless60F 39% Smashing47 37% Court Minstrel94 30% Ted Veale51 30% Cold March24 27% God´s Own73 26% Sail By The Sea39 25% Turn Over Sivola31 13% Unlike the Supreme Novices, in the likely absence of Vautour, favourites Un De Sceaux and Vibrato Valtat should be fighting out the finish. |
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Champion Hurdle
Jezki44 89% Hurricane Fly44 81% Faugheen74 78% Arctic Fire44 78% The New One52 76% Vaniteux68 53% Kitten Rock24 44% Bertimont52 29% The trends suggest the two rivals who have been sluGging it out in Ireland, Jezki and Hurricane Fly will be dominating, with a repeat victory for the current Champion on the cards? This assumes that the 'machine' Faugheen can be beaten. |
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Mares Hurdle
The trends think Annie Power might be beatable, with Carole's Spirit, and my own current fancy Glen's Melody the ones likely to topple her. Are they right? Carole´s Spirit52 88% Glens Melody31 82% The Pirate´s Queen80 82% Annie Power311 80% Bitofapuzzle52 80% The Govaness40 73% Analifet20 60% Jennys Surprise52 59% Emily Gray31 56% Mischievous Milly52 56% Polly Peachum106 51% Pass The Time45 48% Koolala45 46% L´Unique106 46% Little King Robin20 46% Dark Spirit52 45% Hidden Identity38 40% Swing Bowler31 40% Centasia59 37% Sureness142 30% |
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National Hunt Chase
Latest trends for the Festival marathon: Ballyculla18 88% Doing Fine31 88% Very Wood23 84% Broadway Buffalo24 79% Return Spring38 79% Royal Palladium26 79% The Job Is Right23 79% The Last Samuri26 79% Thunder And Roses23 79% Top Totti38 79% Cogry31 78% Wounded Warrior52 74% Vivaldi Collonges31 73% Sego Success59 71% Perfect Candidate45 68% The Young Master80 61% Mosspark45 56% Perfect Gentleman74 56% I Need Gold31 55% Theatre Queen10 54% Heathfield44 53% Don Poli71 50% Vroum Vroum Mag54 33% Cause Of Causes47 31% Hmmmmm.....like Don Poli and perturbed by the fact that he scores so lowly. Both the top 2 have been beaten by Cogry, who is ranked below tham. |
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Myself and Johnn will be in both pubs and curry house in Bishops Cleeve all week, we`ll be the guys with the unintelligible Ayrshire accents and satchels overflowing with cash :-)
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have I missed the gold cup? really interested to see that one JOCI
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Cheers JOCI I doubt I will make it into Cleeve in the evenings: have a good week and I hope you're lucky.
I called in yesterday lunchtime to see what time they opened for breakfast and "drink" - 8am. Eastayr my intention is to get there on the Wed morning - the plan is for early breakfast but the liklehood is probably 10am. I will listen out for the Glaswegian lilt. Enjoy |
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By far the best festival thread. Cheers for the effort joci.
Little tree has picked cole harden as her festival hot pot. |
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Im getting worried that many of your toprated are the ones i like JOCI.
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Neptune Novices Hurdle
A field of 28 remain for Wednesday's curtain raiser, and here are the latest trend rankings: Vyta Du Roc72 100% Roi Des Francs29 90% Definitly Red25 81% Windsor Park31 81% Outlander45 80% No More Heroes45 72% Ordo Ab Chao46 72% Alpha Des Obeaux60 71% Beast Of Burden33 71% Black Hercules94 71% Snow Falcon46 71% Douvan60 70% Nichols Canyon31 70% Shaneshill87 70% Parlour Games72 69% Aso32 62% Bentelimar38 62% Killultagh Vic45 62% Arbre De Vie32 61% Shantou Bob60 61% Tell Us More66 60% Carningli28 52% McKinley31 52% Warrantor60 52% Anteros39 51% Seedling89 51% Marinero46 42% Max Dynamite17 31% |
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RSA Chase
14 runners in the latest field, and here are the latest trend rankings: Southfield Theatre31 92% Kings Palace32 87% If In Doubt46 84%[/b] Wounded Warrior53 79% Coneygree32 78% Valseur Lido31 74% Very Wood24 74% Vautour52 71% Don Poli72 70% Adriana Des Mottes31 54% Apache Jack24 53% The Ould Lad27 50% Vroum Vroum Mag55 44% The Young Master81 41% |
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Queen Mother Champion Chase
Latest trend rankings at the current declaration stage: Dodging Bullets53 100% Balder Succes25 86% Champagne Fever25 79% Sire De Grugy18 76% Mr Mole32 72% Sprinter Sacre53 67% Special Tiara74 64% Simply Ned74 49% Savello52 45% Somersby53 39% Sizing Europe118 38% Clarcam45 34% |