Cheltenham Festival
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tell us more willie mullins
tell us more willie mullins
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Was just to illustrate that some of these novices run a poor one, then bounce back nto and go on to win at Cheltenham. Obviously losing today was disappointing, but history has shown it's not the nail in the coffin by any means.
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for every faugheen and vautour there are 10 so youngs/zaidpours etc, and because theyre from the mullins yard theyre deemed absolute top prospects until the inevitable happens and theyre beaten
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The gold medals aren't handed out in January. The horse will be gearing up to peak for March.
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Agree with the So Young/Zaidpour comment though....very overhyped stable.
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understood, but the fact remains that today was disappointing.
i know CV, its just my feeling that this horse is not as good as people think |
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shame you didn't put your thoughts up pre race wicketd^^
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Wicketd... How do you know how good that form is anyway? Everyone seems convinced it's poor, before it's even been tested. Two of the top rated novices in Ireland, get beaten by a horse that WPM says has improved out of sight. He might been talking complete sh1te, but until we see any of them again, there is absolutely no way any of us can know.
You state your opinion, as if it is fact. |
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its obviously opinion CCM apologies if it comes across like that.
free expression was ridden out to beat a 118 novice lto. i cannot have it as good form. it may well be, we've all been wrong before. |
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harry, todays events are partly what im basing this opinion on, so how could i post pre-race?? granted i didnt post an opinion on todays race, but im not saying he was poor value etc just saying i dont think the horse is as good as believed
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Wicketd
for every faugheen and vautour there are 10 so youngs/zaidpours etc, and because theyre from the mullins yard theyre deemed absolute top prospects until the inevitable happens and theyre beaten Not really true tbf, it's a very profitable game getting on Mullins novice hurdlers early and hoping one or more of them goes in at the festival. Beggars game if you back them in March though. This season I'd gone Allez Colobieres - Supreme 16/1 Tell Us More - Neptune 16/1 & 20/1 Black Herculese - Albert Bartlett 10/1 Shaneshill - win any race 10/1 Only novice chaser I'd backed was UDS for Arkle. The idea is they turn out to be good, win lots in Ireland go short for their races, lay stakes back and hope one goes in. It's a strategy, we really don't know which ones are up to it until the day. |
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just out of interest do you have a list of last few years mullins novice winners to hand?
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TheCollector
Agree with the So Young/Zaidpour comment though....very overhyped stable. So Young was, totally hype job. But Zaidpour? Sure he was double figures for the supreme. Where was the hype? |
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No worries mate, fair enough. It's what this forum is all about at the end of the day.
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you dont remember the zaidpour hype prior to getting beat by first leiutenant?! surely not you CV
 he was 7/2 for supreme before that race, possibly shorter |
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Fiveforthree, Mickael D'Haguenet, Faugheen, Champagne Fever, Vautour.
Beaten "hype" ones were So Young, Pont Alexandre, boston Bob, Briar Hill. That's off memory. |
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Suppose people might include Cousin Vinny, Despite Hurricane Fly being the real hype horse who missed the Supreme. Vinny was 2nd string
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Disappointed with the performance because it didn't seem there were any excuses. I didn't rate the form of the third today last tie out and so wanted to see a polished round of jumping with him quickening away in the straight. On the plus side his jumping was very good and he could improve.
The one I d like is No More Heroes. His perfromance against Shaneshill the way he battled back was very nice. I'd be looking at the more prestigious Neptune with that one. |
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Clutching at straws here but I'm hoping that the scope him and something shows up. He jumped brilliantly but just didn't find anything when asked for his effort.
That to me comes down to engine / inherent ability, and you'd think that the mullins yard would know how good a horse he is, especially one which has been held in such high regard for so long. That's not just the mullins yard, it also includes the Codd yard. It was interesting that O'Leary was far more interested in speaking with Cooper than he was Townsend. |
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Not every horse that wins the Supreme or Neptune has 1111 next to their name going into the festival.
From memory the likes of Menorah, Champagne Fever, Al Ferof, The New One, Cinders and Ashes, Go Native, Simonsig, First Lieutenant all won the Supreme or Neptune and were beaten in the build up. Peddlers, Faugheen, Vautour and D'Haguenent all were unbeaten, but looking at that, those with a 2 next to their name outweigh those that were unbeaten; and to be fair Peddlers and Faugheen had pretty easy prep races where they were expected to win. Like most I was disappointed with Tell Us More today, but he could easily end up in the top list. |
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Huge leap of faith to imagine that TUM can win at the Festival. He has failed to beat an exposed and 3rd choice Gigginstown runner and also a very much fancied (on the day) Free Expression who struggled to beat Shantou Flyer last time. Imo The No More Heroes/Shaneshill form is at least 10lb better than this and Shaneshill will perform much better on Spring ground.
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He beat Free Expression mate
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Wade in the bud!
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No I meant your post suggested he didn't... Or have I misread it?!
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If beating Free Expression is a ticket to Festival success, then wade in. That is what I meant though I suspect you already understood my poor use of sentence construction! I don't think FE will be winning at Cheltenham either.
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Sorry mate, wasn't being pedantic! Just misunderstood...
No I agree the form looks bang average. Can't wait for the Deloitte though. |
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If you take couleur france as a form measure, the form is almost on a par with no more heroes and Shaneshill, if taken literally.
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No worries CCM! They're not machines and we all have different - usually money influenced - views. FWIW, I backed FE today but am relieved to report that I don't have an AP interest in either horse for Cheltenham
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Haha. I'm certainly biased by my 20-1 ante post voucher
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I wouldn't be trying away my Cheltenham ante-post bet if I was on just yet.
He won't know the true worth of this form until all the principals run again .... maybe won't know until the races have been run at the Festival. The trade-off for his bubble being burst is that he's now a much bigger price for a lot of the prices. Personally I wouldn't be taking 12/1 for any race for him right now but let's say he's runs well next time out and the vibes are good at the Cheltenham preview circuit in Ireland, then I doubt you'd get anywhere close to that. It's really a case of holding tough and keeping an open mind at this stage. I wouldn't rule any of the first 3 in or out of any of the races after today. |
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trying = throwing
He = We prices = races |
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Free expression's form was very good,kauto grand mogul came out and won,Martello tower was right there at the last until falling and that came out and won last week,Jessie Harrington horse also came out and won,free expression is a good horse that needs to learn to jump and settle and still looked green today,the race might not be as bad as people think !
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You could be right cufcno1 - and if you look at it another way McKinley if he had kept going at Leopardstown would probably have gone close to winning. He wouldn't have been in the race today that's for sure.
And if he wasn't there, Tell Us More would've won middling comfortably - not overly impressively. But he has bet Free Expression by 1.5L. I doubt bookies would've been doubling him in price if that's how it ended up. I suppose it's all about how you interpret these things and if you're willing to forgive a horse an ordinary sort of performance. |
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I was very impressed with his hurdling today. Definitely wouldn't be giving up.
Be interesting if they do go back in trip. Expect a lot will be dependent on what Gigginstown have in the Supreme and Neptune respectively, rather than what Mullins does. |
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I was expecting a lot of chat post race, and not disappointed.
So TUM is no Faugheen, that's for sure (who is?), but he has just been beaten narrowly on his 2nd start over hurdles in a Grade 1 ffs, anyone with AntePost tickets shouldn't be fearing defeat at Chelters just yet. TUM jumped well, didn't seem to pull too hard, travelled well, and surprisingly (to me) was worn down on the run-in. I think the quality of opponent was fair for mid-season Grade 1 fare, and appearing in such a race will bring TUM on a ton, for his 3rd race. If its the pre-eminent Irish Novice hurdle Grade 1 (the 2m2f Deloitte) then it tells me that Willie Mullins still has him in the front line of his Novice Hurdling battalions. Anyone already backing him, keep the faith. |
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Townend is having a fair run of it too on Mullins' second strings. That's 3 in the last 2 months. The only G1's Ruby has won have been the two on Hurricane Fly. So much for being stable jockey!
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I wouldn't be chucking away any to win any race vouchers or supreme vouchers but I would be chucking away any Neptune bets
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had a real long look at this race
would be really surprised if he ended up in the supreme - it looked a proper test to me and he was just to inexperienced to deal with the winner after the last after doing all the leg work up to that point and jumped particularly well...i had the race down as a very good race myself on reflexion...very much looking forward to his next start when hopefully he comes on from the experience, he needs to but looks very unfurnished to me and it is very possible he will...he is a much more realistic price now for the neptune, one i am very tempted by tbh...it is hoped he can progress from this and i think he will in a big way...the deloitte would seem a logical step for him |
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Just watched again travelled and jumped well, not sure how it got beat. Not sure where it will end up at Festival,defo worth another try 2m 4f.
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Beaten by inexperience. is a Neptune horse for me. The New One got turned over before he won that. They are surely still learning with this horse and NTO may be ridden differently.
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He look weak as pi55 after the last
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