Cheltenham Festival
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Far too much hype over Annie Power. Wouldn't have won the Champion Hurdle. Got beat by a relative novice in the World Hurdle and reckon she's Quevega mark 2 for the mares year upon year
Jonjo O'Neill is an absolute master at the Festival
Paul Nicholls needs some good horses and fast
You simply do not win the RSA without a run in the same calendar year
The New One was very unlucky
Shaneshill will win one of the Novices next March
Is Taquin Du Seuil a future Gold Cup prospect?
Jim Culloty a name to note for the Festival
Jonjo O'Neill is an absolute master at the Festival
Paul Nicholls needs some good horses and fast
You simply do not win the RSA without a run in the same calendar year
The New One was very unlucky
Shaneshill will win one of the Novices next March
Is Taquin Du Seuil a future Gold Cup prospect?
Jim Culloty a name to note for the Festival
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Annie Power appeared not to stay, so she was in the wrong race.
Ditto Felix Yonger. Champagne Fever, on the other hand, seemed to want further. He too was in the wrong race. Willie Mullins is a great trainer but his policy of keeping his best runners apart could use revisiting. |
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Vautour was bloody impressive though. Mullins's first winner next year, in the Arkle.
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Agreed.
Lack of a recent run beat Champagne Fever also. |
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annie power appeared not to stay!?!?wow im reading fair drivel all the week but that beats it all!!take out the winner and was she a non stayer?
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totally agree kavvie
beat by a very smart horse |
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ruby covered ..annie up never moved a muscle , showed his hand at too late , as wanted it beat ... and found it was desperately unlucky .different day different result ,... pots of money on it ,so asses it was off for its life .. great try come unstuck .. gave me a wee fright ??
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@kavvie -- yes, Annie Power appeared not to stay. Note this does not mean she did not reach the line at all.
The Racing Post has this: Willie Mullins, who trains Annie Power, said: "She ran a fantastic race and jumped from hurdle to hurdle. She is probably a little keen to be a three-miler and was probably a little too keen early in the race but she still ran a terrific race. |
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Incredible to think that annie power was unlucky or delivered too late, she was alongside MOT on the turn in, she was beaten fair and square.
different day, same result. |
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ante post prices away from the big high profile names (and perhaps in general) are a travesty
more often better waiting for the morning of the race |
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Agree that SHANESHILL to win a Novice Hurdle next year, need to spend some time working out which one though, as Briar Hill steps up to 3-Miler, but Champagne Fever ended up in the 2-Miler from the same stable.
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we learnt My Tent Or Yours has no problem coming up the hill and once given a good ride will win the champion hurdle. Massive bet for me next year. 3rd time lucky just like binocular except this is a much better horse than binocular.
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Sgt Reckless will turn out to be a very useful novice chaser looks similar profile to somersby.
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NOT MEAN LAST 3 FURLONGS ......... MEANT 2 1/2 MILES BEFORE THAT WAS VERY LOW KEY ... keeping it gathered in to get 3 miles nearly made it .
back to back wins for bobs , could be highlight of this festival, as this race is what it's all about . |
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that connections are far from infallible in terms of assessing the ability of their charges.
A level headed, pragmatic man like AP McCoy who has probably forgotten more about horses than I'll ever know...how many times has he chosen wrong this week? Don't listen to 'em and don't get sucked in.Study form in a vacuum. I knew it already but events of the week have just reinforced it. |
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don't buy into perceived wisdom either i.e. Pipe can't train Grade 1 winners at the Festival.
How's that looking this morning? |
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The form of The Reynoldstown at Ascot still reigns supreme for learning staying chasers.
O'Faolain's Boy one of my biggest ever wins. Recent decent performers in it include Bobs Worth, Silv Conti, Carruthers,Burton Port, Alberta's Run and history shows greats like Beau, Bacchanal, One Man, Royal Athlete, Mr Mulligan and Our Vic all won it. Last years 2nd - Houblon des Obeaux - is the complete rag in today's Gold Cup, but I bet he's not last. |
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Look carefully at the "WIN ANY RACE AT THE FESTIVAL" Markets, it fared well for me with 12/1 FAUGHEEN after my bet on him last May to win the Supreme looked wide of the mark.
So for Win Single bets, for horses that could be multiple entered, only bet in the "WIN ANY FESITIVAL RACE" market. |
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Yet again the Irish seem much better at finding and training the best young horses and dominate the bumper to the point that I wonder if British trainers will take them on in future. May be they didn't this year?
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Interesting how people see things so differently to someone else.
Champagne Fever beaten a short head and was apparently in the wrong race??????? Annie Power ran all the way to the line beating the rest of the field by 5lenghts, getting beat but what looks a top prospect, and apparently didn't stay???????????? |
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Quite right botr. CF had beaten everything else hollow. Ditto AP.
MOT is a very smart horse and will be a future Cheltenham Festival winner, either over hurdles or more probably fences. |
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don't back anything under 2-1 in the long run it will kill you
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Don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
Had a similarly shocking first three days last year but this year, instead of throwing the towel in on the Thursday night and wincing at results on the Fri having not had a bet, I steamed in today and did my absolutes on races that I didn't have a clue about. Idiocy. |
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The advice to swerve anything below 2/1 is a good one. I was all set to back Bobsworth at 3.2 this morning but when First Lt. was withdrawn he went to 2.6 and lower so I cancelled the bet and had a small win The Giant Bolster and a place only Lord Windermere. Made a profit on the race instead of losing a tenner. Only 4 winners at the meeting out of 23 races backed on but just about even on the 4 days. I was mostly only playing small stakes but MTOY, Sire de Grugy, Big Bucks and Fingal Bay were the four biggest stakes I had.
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good work sage hope u enjoyed it
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People making errors in a thread about what they learned. It's gonnae be another year until their next harsh lesson, unless they accept the errors they made.
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1) JP Mcmanus horses in the handicaps are hideously priced up. The bookies are so afraid of a Jonjo/Mccoy/Jp plot that they're giving you 5/1 in a 25 runner field in the most competitive racing of the entire year.. The price is simply wrong. Yes it's all well and good if you've backed one ante post at 25/1 but taking such cramped odds in massive field on the day of the race is -EV.
2) Course form is everything. 3) Barry Geraghty rides Cheltenham just about better than anyone. 4) The handicap races are an absolute minefield. Most of the horses have not been running on their merits all winter. Have a bet if you fancy one but keep stakes small. Don't bet just for the sake of it. You'd be surprised how many silly ten pound bets add up to come the end of the Grand Annual. 5) Don't pay any attention to what trainers say. The interviews in the racing post are just inane drivel. David Pipe didn't even want to run his Arkle winner.... he thought he could win a 'decent handicap' with him. The bloody trainer of the horse didn't think he could win. How the hell are us punters supposed to back winners knowing that ffs?! |
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- Small field Irish racing form isn't that bad.
- Try not to back 1st or 2nd Fav ante-post until the day. - Have a second look at horses with first time head gear. - BetVic Ante Post free bets have been a life saver. - Don't get carried away with hype horses. - Bet with your head not with your heart. - Enjoy it win or loose. - Stay away from Pricewise tips. - Leave handicaps till the day better e/w terms etc. - Every horse has a chance at Cheltenham. - Try and guess Mullins horses targets early. - Savour every moment of the festival before, during and after. HAVE FUN EVEN THOUGH YOUR PROBABLY GOING TO WIN A LITTLE AND LOOSE A LOT :) |
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I am 69 and have been betting on the Festival for 50 years. You never really learn to cut out those impulse bets-but why not just enjoy the crack and hope to win a few along the way. The one that got away for me was Attaglance, otherwise my bets were beaten by better horses or fell.
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ore of that is a superstar.
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Tony Martin is not a great trainer ..
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That it is time Channel4 got rid of Simon Holt.
Makes far too many mistakes, misses fallers and just doesn't get the pulse racing. Time for Johnson or Hoiles to take the mic. |
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The Morning Line was truly terrible viewing
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im doing a serious lucky 15 over the 4 days,watch the rest
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@brandyontherocks Champagne Fever beaten a short head and was apparently in the wrong race???????
Annie Power ran all the way to the line beating the rest of the field by 5lenghts, getting beat but what looks a top prospect, and apparently didn't stay???????????? Is Annie Power the best mare in years? Is Champagne Fever really no better than a 33/1 rag whose trainer thought he was a mere handicapper? Yes and no, for me, which supports my belief they were running in the wrong races. But what does Willie Mullins think? My guess is that Champagne Fever's next race will be over longer, and Annie Power's over shorter. |
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We all know Champagne will be stepped up next season. That has been said all season long.
Doesn't mean he doesn't possess the pace for an Arkle which he proved on Tuesday. |
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When you get to a certain age you should be pretty clear about what works for you and what doesn't. Stick to what works. Handicaps are designed to benefit the bookies which is why we now have four days and probably eventually five. There's still a lot of top class races to go on though. Outside of that two things spring to mind Ground, ground and ground again which is why Claisse's shennanigans always irritate me. The second point is that trainers train their best for a specific engagement. Other form isn't necessarily going to be franked. trust your judgement about how much you think a horse can improve for certain race conditions.
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The ground was pathetic this year ...
race all winter on softish ground then on good in MARCH .. pathetic |
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If you looked at the handicaps this year, they were almost invariably won by the better quality horses. What I mean is the winners came from the top half of the handicap, often the first several in the handicap, and something like all the handicaps were won by runners with racecard numbers higher than 13. I'm supposing that the better quality ground enables the better quality horses to perform at their peak.
Secondly, it can pay to latch on to 'in form' trainers, and follow outfits like Gigginstown, when they are on a roll. |