Things I've learned at the Festival

Annie Power appeared not to stay, so she was in the wrong race.

Ditto Felix Yonger.

Champagne Fever, on the other hand, seemed to want further. He too was in the wrong race.

Willie Mullins is a great trainer but his policy of keeping his best runners apart could use revisiting.

Vautour was bloody impressive though. Mullins's first winner next year, in the Arkle.

Agreed.

Lack of a recent run beat Champagne Fever also.

annie power appeared not to stay!?!?wow im reading fair drivel all the week but that beats it all!!take out the winner and was she a non stayer?

totally agree kavvie

beat by a very smart horse

ruby covered ..annie  up never moved a muscle   , showed his hand at too late , as wanted it beat ... and found it was desperately unlucky  .different day different result ,... pots of money on it ,so asses it was off for its life ..  great try come unstuck  .. gave me a wee fright ??

@kavvie -- yes, Annie Power appeared not to stay. Note this does not mean she did not reach the line at all.

The Racing Post has this: Willie Mullins, who trains Annie Power, said: "She ran a fantastic race and jumped from hurdle to hurdle. She is probably a little keen to be a three-miler and was probably a little too keen early in the race but she still ran a terrific race.

Incredible to think that annie power was unlucky or delivered too late, she was alongside MOT on the turn in, she was beaten fair and square.

different day, same result.

ante post prices away from the big high profile names (and perhaps in general) are a travesty

more often better waiting for the morning of the race

Agree that SHANESHILL to win a Novice Hurdle next year, need to spend some time working out which one though, as Briar Hill steps up to 3-Miler, but Champagne Fever ended up in the 2-Miler from the same stable.

we learnt My Tent Or Yours has no problem coming up the hill and once given a good ride will win the champion hurdle. Massive bet for me next year. 3rd time lucky just like binocular except this is a much better horse than binocular.

Sgt Reckless will turn out to be a very useful novice chaser looks similar profile to somersby.

NOT MEAN LAST 3 FURLONGS   .........  MEANT 2 1/2 MILES BEFORE THAT WAS VERY LOW KEY  ... keeping it gathered in to get 3 miles nearly made it  .
back to back wins for bobs , could be highlight of this festival, as this race is what it's all about .

that connections are far from infallible in terms of assessing the ability of their charges.

A level headed, pragmatic man like AP McCoy who has probably forgotten more about horses than I'll ever know...how many times has he chosen wrong this week?

Don't listen to 'em and don't get sucked in.Study form in a vacuum.

I knew it already but events of the week have just reinforced it.

don't buy into perceived wisdom either i.e. Pipe can't train Grade 1 winners at the Festival.

How's that looking this morning?

The form of The Reynoldstown at Ascot still reigns supreme for learning staying chasers.

O'Faolain's Boy one of my biggest ever wins.

Recent decent performers in it include Bobs Worth, Silv Conti, Carruthers,Burton Port, Alberta's Run
and history shows greats like Beau, Bacchanal, One Man, Royal Athlete, Mr Mulligan and Our Vic all won it.

Last years 2nd - Houblon des Obeaux - is the complete rag in today's Gold Cup, but I bet he's not last.

Look carefully at the "WIN ANY RACE AT THE FESTIVAL" Markets, it fared well for me with 12/1 FAUGHEEN after my bet on him last May to win the Supreme looked wide of the mark. 

So for Win Single bets, for horses that could be multiple entered, only bet in the "WIN ANY FESITIVAL RACE" market.

Yet again the Irish seem much better at finding and training  the best young horses and dominate the bumper to the point that I wonder if British trainers will take them on in future. May be they didn't this year?

Interesting how people see things so differently to someone else.


Champagne Fever beaten a short head and was apparently in the wrong race???????

Annie Power ran all the way to the line beating the rest of the field by 5lenghts, getting beat but what looks a top prospect, and apparently didn't stay????????????

Quite right botr. CF had beaten everything else hollow. Ditto AP.

MOT is a very smart horse and will be a future Cheltenham Festival winner, either over hurdles or more probably fences.

don't back anything under 2-1 in the long run it will kill you

Don't bet more than you can afford to lose.

Had a similarly shocking first three days last year but this year, instead of throwing the towel in on the Thursday night and wincing at results on the Fri having not had a bet, I steamed in today and did my absolutes on races that I didn't have a clue about. Idiocy.

The advice to swerve anything below 2/1 is a good one. I was all set to back Bobsworth at 3.2 this morning but when First Lt. was withdrawn he went to 2.6 and lower so I cancelled the bet and had a small win The Giant Bolster and a place only Lord Windermere. Made a profit on the race instead of losing a tenner. Only 4 winners at the meeting out of 23 races backed on but just about even on the 4 days. I was mostly only playing small stakes but MTOY, Sire de Grugy, Big Bucks and Fingal Bay were the four biggest stakes I had.

good work sage hope u enjoyed it

People making errors in a thread about what they learned. It's gonnae be another year until their next harsh lesson, unless they accept the errors they made.

1) JP Mcmanus horses in the handicaps are hideously priced up. The bookies are so afraid of a Jonjo/Mccoy/Jp plot that they're giving you 5/1 in a 25 runner field in the most competitive racing of the entire year.. The price is simply wrong. Yes it's all well and good if you've backed one ante post at 25/1 but taking such cramped odds in massive field on the day of the race is -EV.

2) Course form is everything.

3) Barry Geraghty rides Cheltenham just about better than anyone.

4) The handicap races are an absolute minefield. Most of the horses have not been running on their merits all winter. Have a bet if you fancy one but keep stakes small. Don't bet just for the sake of it. You'd be surprised how many silly ten pound bets add up to come the end of the Grand Annual.

5) Don't pay any attention to what trainers say. The interviews in the racing post are just inane drivel. David Pipe didn't even want to run his Arkle winner.... he thought he could win a 'decent handicap' with him. The bloody trainer of the horse didn't think he could win. How the hell are us punters supposed to back winners knowing that ffs?!

- Small field Irish racing form isn't that bad.
- Try not to back 1st or 2nd Fav ante-post until the day.
- Have a second look at horses with first time head gear.
- BetVic Ante Post free bets have been a life saver.
- Don't get carried away with hype horses.
- Bet with your head not with your heart.
- Enjoy it win or loose.
- Stay away from Pricewise tips.
- Leave handicaps till the day better e/w terms etc.
- Every horse has a chance at Cheltenham.
- Try and guess Mullins horses targets early.
- Savour every moment of the festival before, during and after.

HAVE FUN EVEN THOUGH YOUR PROBABLY GOING TO WIN A LITTLE AND LOOSE A LOT :)

I am 69 and have been betting on the Festival for 50 years. You never really learn to cut out those impulse bets-but why not just enjoy the crack and hope to win a few along the way. The one that got away for me was Attaglance, otherwise my bets were beaten by better horses or fell.

ore of that is a superstar.

Tony Martin is not a great trainer ..

That it is time Channel4 got rid of Simon Holt.

Makes far too many mistakes, misses fallers and just doesn't get the pulse racing.

Time for Johnson or Hoiles to take the mic.

The Morning Line was truly terrible viewing

im doing a serious lucky 15 over the 4 days,watch the rest

@brandyontherocks Champagne Fever beaten a short head and was apparently in the wrong race???????

Annie Power ran all the way to the line beating the rest of the field by 5lenghts, getting beat but what looks a top prospect, and apparently didn't stay????????????

Is Annie Power the best mare in years? Is Champagne Fever really no better than a 33/1 rag whose trainer thought he was a mere handicapper? Yes and no, for me, which supports my belief they were running in the wrong races.

But what does Willie Mullins think? My guess is that Champagne Fever's next race will be over longer, and Annie Power's over shorter.

We all know Champagne will be stepped up next season. That has been said all season long.
Doesn't mean he doesn't possess the pace for an Arkle which he proved on Tuesday.

When you get to a certain age you should be pretty clear about what works for you and what doesn't. Stick to what works. Handicaps are designed to benefit the bookies which is why we now have four days and probably eventually five. There's still a lot of top class races to go on though. Outside of that two things spring to mind Ground, ground and ground again which is why Claisse's shennanigans always irritate me. The second point is that trainers train their best for a specific engagement. Other form isn't necessarily going to be franked. trust your judgement about how much you think a horse can improve for certain race conditions.

The ground was pathetic this year ...

race all winter on softish ground then on good in MARCH .. pathetic

If you looked at the handicaps this year, they were almost invariably won by the better quality horses. What I mean is the winners came from the top half of the handicap, often the first several in the handicap, and something like all the handicaps were won by runners with racecard numbers higher than 13. I'm supposing that the better quality ground enables the better quality horses to perform at their peak.

Secondly, it can pay to latch on to 'in form' trainers, and follow outfits like Gigginstown, when they are on a roll.

CF was in the right race, the fault was that walsh, although bowling along out in front, still didn't make full use of that serious strong cruising speed he has, hence there was still 5 or 6 still in it turning in, I reckon the previous fall left more of a mark on the jockey than it did the horse.

vautour is a monster, I'd back him for the arkle if I wasn't worried that with the possible omission of SS again next year, he could end up in the queen mum as a novice!!!

Quevega (Robin Des Champs x Vega IV)has a full sister and a full brother:


Sivega (Mare) (2006)- ran once in France - unplaced. No progeny

Vivega (Gelding) (2009) - trained by Willie Mullins. Had his fist run in a NHF race at Navan in February this year. Finished a 10 length 3rd of 7 on heavy. One for the future ?


Robin Des Champs is also the sire of Vautour, Sir Des Champs, Un Temps Pour Tout amongst others

age - youth is everything, look forward not back

simply avoid the handicaps after a wet winter, on the faster ground the form becomes ridiculous.

We need this thread near the top at the start of next season so that we dont forget the rules/trends

If you looked at the handicaps this year, they were almost invariably won by the better quality horses. What I mean is the winners came from the top half of the handicap, often the first several in the handicap, and something like all the handicaps were won by runners with racecard numbers higher than 13. I'm supposing that the better quality ground enables the better quality horses to perform at their peak.

Secondly, it can pay to latch on to 'in form' trainers, and follow outfits like Gigginstown, when they are on a roll.

Was going to say pretty much the same, word for word.

Whilst plot horses can never be ruled out in the handicaps, Whisper, Fingals Cave, Savello probably gave some of the trends boys nightmares, re low weights / handicap ratings orthodoxy.

Re latching onto connections that hit form for the festival, this has worked in the past - Twiston-Davies last year, Malcolm Jefferson the year before that, Gigginstown this year and arguably Alan Kings horses ran a lot better than prices indicated in the main.

Finally, regarding the ground, I just don't get whet the issue is. You know the exec will always aim t have good or good-to-soft in the title, so bar downpours on the weekend before or during the Fez, that is what it will be. As punters that is good news because to a greater degree it is a 'given' you can factor into your betting.

If a horse is a true champion it can overcome track and ground conditions supposedly being against it (get in Sire de Grugy you 3/1 gift)

gazovic 14 Mar 14 10:26 
ante post prices away from the big high profile names (and perhaps in general) are a travesty

more often better waiting for the morning of the race

I could dig out loads of figures to prove this wrong. The shrewdies were betting Faugheen, Dynaste, Vautour, Holywell et al
at some very nice prices. I know that Dynaste was def posted on here at 10+ and I think Holywell at 20+ (which is hardly
even an antepost bet considering how late the h'caps are priced).

If a horse is a true champion it can overcome track and ground conditions supposedly being against it (get in Sire de Grugy you 3/1 gift)  ABSOLUTE BAULAUX.

WHAT EXACTLY DID IT BEAT AFTER CAPTAIN PULLED UP ????

Sire de Grugy beat all of the horses whose trainers thought they could win the QM. He has been by far the best 2 mile chaser around since Sprinter Sacre had his problem. Still will be next season in my opinion.

^
no

the spectre is the place to drink on monday night - very cheap drinks

jaimie olivers italian is great food

lush cosmetics are scum

paddy power offer great value monday teatime

the new one was bloody unlucky

the touts offer best value for tickets

the food was cheaper - why used to be 8.95 for any item meal.but 5/6 or dearest 7 quid - has supply and demand done this or Cheltenham making them charge less

Duffy, imo it's v unusual for Willie to run a novice in a championship race (can't think of one) but how confident are you that he's going chasing in 8 months or so?

I was sceptical about SDG but I'm a convert now.

Aside from his own performance, it's worth highlighting the run of Hidden Cyclone in the Ryanair, beaten 2.25 lengths into 2nd place by Dynaste - SDG destroyed him at Ascot.

You need lady luck on your side. The margins between victory and defeat are wafer thin. Sire de G just missed being brought down. Calipto broken stirrup and many more.

The RealDeal

Although, he'd be a very strong candidate in any CH,the stable already have UDS next in line to take his place in that one and why would they want to have such strength in one race and leave themselves thin in the chasing department when you consider that vautour could very well take a tight grip on that division, bearing in mind that mullins is STILL to win an arkle or champion chase.

Never back r Walsh in chase at festival last winner 2009 Kauto Star

A paradox betting-wise. Three antepost selections won, but I'd have got better odds by waiting for the day. Otoh, my day-of-race bets lost, so I'm really not sure how to approach next year.

its looks to me Ramruma that the one's you really like are the ones you should be having a real tilt at, antepost or not..... and just use the other races for opportunistic nibbles.

Thanks, @Ming_the_Merciless. I guess the main difference is that I spend more time thinking (even if only subconsciously) about the antepost ones. Trouble is, there is not much value in the antepost market any more. There is value on day of race with the various bookies' offers, but things are too hectic for proper consideration.

The solution is obvious -- pick selections early but do not back them till the day -- but my will power might be lacking.

I think willpower will be the issue re the point with Duffy above!
I tend to agree that Vautour will go chasing, it's the 5/1 for the Arkle that's making me take a closer look and challenge his credentials and alternatives.

On the plus side he looked great in the Supreme, goes on any ground and Mullins thinks he's a monster. There also seems to be a clear pecking order at the stable and Vautour, particularly as he's owned by RR, would already seem to occupy pole position to run in next year's Arkle.

On the minus side we know he's a brilliant hurdler but we don't yet know if he's as good over fences. WPM potentially has Faugheen, AP, VL and various others who could run in the Arkle, also what if UDS doesn't turn out to be as good as we think for the Champion Hurdle, plus all the other glorious uncertainties of ante post betting?

So the 5/1 seems skinny at this stage, say when compared with the 7/1 or 8/1 offered on Champagne Fever at the start of this season (and we thought that was skinny didn't we?)

I guess both CF and Vautour had/have various options open to them and resisting that 5/1 might be the difficult part!

I tell you what I'm going to do next year, and I have know it for years. Stick to the 16 Championship races. The h'caps are far to competitive.

Two things for me - follow the major bookies on Twitter in the build up to the Festival.  Some great offers like Paddy Power's Vautour and Faugheen to win at 24/1 and Vautour and Sire De Grugy at 16/1.  Ladbrokes layed Quevega at 6/4 in the build up as well.

Of course, a lot of specials didn't come off, but if you pick the correct ones, you can make a few quid.

The second thing I learnt is that Arvika Legionnaire is only 10% as good as I thought he is!

If a horse is a true champion it can overcome track and ground conditions supposedly being against it (get in Sire de Grugy you 3/1 gift)  ABSOLUTE BAULAUX.

WHAT EXACTLY DID IT BEAT AFTER CAPTAIN PULLED UP ????

You're the one talking absolute bollox. Sire de Grugy beat every horse put in front of him on the day and all those who weren't considered up to the task including Sprinter Sacre. The point I made is unarguable unless you're an idiot. Many people on here, in the media and at the betting firms who put him up at the demonstrably stupid price of 100/30 in the morning said he wouldn't win due to the track and going. A true champion can overcome such adversity and Sire de Grugy did so.

The other thing I've learnt is that there are too many loud mouths on the betfair forum to make it worthwhile joining the discussion.

An observation regarding Mr Nicholls....now about 0 from 70 with chasers at Cheltenham in last few years. Zilch since days of Kauto?

Personally, think I need to cut down on antepost.

My bets after declaration stage went really well but my antepost bets were woeful.

Several horses I backed antepost I had completely gone off by post time; (Rule The World, Melodic Rendezvous, Rock On Ruby, Broughton, Adrianna Des Mottes...) and they often prevented me from getting involved in the day of the race market.

Next year I will try top be more selective with my antepost bets and wait until closer to the time.

Good luck with that project TR, it's not easy

Haha, well I figured if I post it here it might help!

Its becoming a bit too big for my liking .. everyone getting involved

Lay anything that tries to go for home from the top of the hill if it gets down to 2 in running.