Cheltenham Festival
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Weather and Going Updates
Weather and Going Updates
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Far too early to be accurate yet. Lets not get too excited!
Excited???! I want it to hose down for the next 12 days! |
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no way roger, seeing horses legless coming up the hill is not my idea of fun, irrespective of betting.
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Yes and I suppose it's just tough t1ts on any horse / connections that only operates on slow ground
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Yep. Irrespective of my antepost bets, I always want to see decent ground at the Festival. I bet far more on the day than I do antepost though, so that's pretty easy for me to say.
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Heavy, almost torrential, rain falling at the moment lads.
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cheers mr e, from the middle of next week its going to be dry, good to soft ground for the start of the festival if the forecast is accurate.
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encouraging forecast on countryfile !!!!!!!!!!
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And if country file can't get it right nobody can
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As I suggested a few days ago with today's heavy rain and tomorrows showers it will be verging on heavy by Tuesday morning but then it's warm and dry after that so will dry out nicely - should be perfect good-to-soft with a great covering of grass on opening day and I'm assuming he will need to water the new course.
Hope I'm wrong and it's soft on Tuesday as I win far more that way. If it goes good I'll be near bankrupt.  |
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your joking yes puncle?
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Not joking at all.
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27 races to get your teeth into and you could be near bankrupt before the first race???
crazy man  |
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That's the gamble.
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It isn't going to be good whatever happens
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Why would that be marychain?
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It won't be good for unclepuncle if it's good! uncle- in all seriousness I've never known a course drain like Cheltenham. Until recent years it seemed unthinkable to have anything other than a good ground festival. With a few dry and windy days in the lead up and no watering planned it's not impossible that it will be good. Might be an idea to hedge at some point.
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I'd be amazed if it was good. They'll have to water it to makesure first day is Good-to-soft otherwise it will be firm up too much by Friday. Will be Good-to-soft at best!!
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There's 3 main reasons why it won't be good
1) Its been so wet and there is no guarantee we won't get more rain 2) Even if the course dries out enough for the ground to be good Claisse will water until its g/s 3) Even if it is actually good ground they will call it good to soft. |
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You're right sint.....it will be good to soft (or softer) first day even if they do have to water! Inconceivable that they would have to do so after the winter we have had but a few warmer dry days changes the ground dramatically - we'll know more by the weekend.
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Unlikely I agree but not impossible.
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Read a great article the weekend on Cheltenham ground called the Trampoline effect.
Apparently with the water table at record high levels, what happens is that if there is a dry spell leading up to the festival the top 3-4 inches of ground Dry up causing false good fast ground. The real condition of the ground is dry crusty on top but very moist underneath this is called the trampoline effect and in effect it suits all horses. You get fast race times because the horses are in effect bouncing of the surface. The trouble starts if there is any rain during the festival because what that does is loosen the top so the rain gets in and connects the top with the moist below so in effect with minimal rain the ground quickly becomes heavy and testing ! I think this explains the year Flagship Uberalles ran 40 seconds slower the following day after a few hours of drizzle ! What the writer was trying to say only if it rains during the festival does it suit soft/heavy ground horses but more than that it makes the horses stamina Of real importance when having a bet. Of course if it carries on raining like it is none of the above will matter ! |
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Interesting squiggsy
That would also explain Tidal Bay's Arkle win - ground seemed to deteriorate between the first two races. McCoy chose Binocular in the first because of the ground but was outdone by JPM's other one in the race who preferred cut. There were a few heavy showers about but it looked as though the ground was far more testing than the first day "good to soft" we have been used to. Also on Friday last year, Our Conor's comparative time was lightening fast when tied in with the rest of the day. |
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Might also explain why almost all the horses from the 2013 Gold Cup and Albert Bartlett have really struggled for form and fitness this year
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Apologies marychain dyslexia rules KO read that as Isnt it going to be good whatever happens!
agree with you |
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Some forecasts suggest a bit of drizzle Thursday-Saturday which should hopefully mean good-to-soft at worst, but a couple of forecasts suggesting no rain (even the Countryfile forecast last night was basically dry and warm from Wednesday.
What I found amazing and really worried me is that yesterday morning Claisse said it had been heading to good-to-soft: THE going at Cheltenham was heading towards good to soft on Sunday but with as much as 9mm of rain forecast before Monday morning, there is unlikely to be any official going change from soft in the immediate future. Clerk of the course Simon Claisse said on Sunday afternoon: "There's no change, it was heading towards good to soft this morning but it's raining now. There's more rain forecast for tonight and we could get anywhere between 5-9mm into tomorrow." Looking further ahead, he added: "There are bits and pieces of rain for the early part of the week, then it's turning dry from midweek onwards. The chase and hurdle courses are soft and the cross-country circuit is soft, heavy in places." Given it was very soft on the turftrax map last Wednesday and it poured down all day on Friday (see comments on this thread) I was assuming that first thing Saturday morning it would have been verging on heavy. How it was then heading to good-soft by Sunday morning I don't know. It then rained heavily yesterday for several hours (unless I'm mistaken?) so again it must surely be nigh on heavy this morning. I went for my usual dog walk (in Northamptonshire) this morning and the fields and streams were the most flooded they have been all winter. Squeaky bum time that's for sure.  |
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Hi
I noticed on the WeatherAction long range weather forecast by Piers Corbyn that he is predicting from the 10-12 March heavy downpours and travel disruption. I'm not for one moment saying this is a 100% situation and that he specifies the Cheltenham Festival in particular but you guys should keep in mind that the Jet Stream is stuck in a southerly track and any break for dry conditions is likely to be brief. The current BetFair market for the going conditions for the first race on Tuesday is geared for Good/Soft and is about 8/11, this price would appear to be wrong as the current state of the ground is already saturated. I'll keep you posted on more info regarding the track of the Jet Stream and any further info from Piers Corbyn. |
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it should also be noted that a long range weather forecast (anything over 3 days) is basically an educated guess.
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At the end of the day all punting is an 'educated guess'.
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Piers Corbyn does forecasts for 12 months in advance, so he's obviously highly educated.
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Claisse could call the ground GS for Day just so it appeases all trainers/participants but after the first race it could be changed to Soft based on times, jockey opinion.
Uncle, ring up Claisse and tell him you will bung him a few quis if he helps you out! |
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Yeah, my world certainly revolves around Piers Corbyn!
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after the first race it could be changed to Soft based on times, jockey opinion
The clock watchers normally think the ground is faster than it really is. |
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Don't know about Cheltenham but we had over an inch since yesterday afternoon here in Somerset-we needed more rain of course
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We had about half an inch yesterday and though expected to catch some heavy showers today, we have had very few and they certainly have not been heavy.
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half an inch(is that just a guess?) was well more than expected.
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have they started watering yet ?
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A guess geoff m but after a drizzly morning, it rained persistently from early afternoon into the evening.......probably about 6 hours - I'm in Cheltenham close to the town centre, no more than 2 miles from the course. Was a fair amount forecast for today too in the form of heavy showers but we have largely missed those.
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Latest update:
A DRY second half of the week at Cheltenham was still forecast but a going alteration may be a few more days off as conditions at the racecourse remained soft following a short burst of rain at the track on Monday morning. Clerk of the course Simon Claisse said on Monday: "We had a little light rain this morning but a dry and bright afternoon. The going on the chase and hurdle courses remains soft. The cross-country course is soft, heavy in places. "We are expecting some rain, not big quantities. There's maybe 7-11mm due between now and Wednesday, and then it's turning dry." |
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More heavy rain in Somerset this afternoon so I expect Wincanton to be desperate ground again on Thursday.
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As I said last week good to soft is like finding money in the street. After the latest reports its now even easier I don't even have to bend down.Verging on good to soft this evening, very little rain today, much less then expected and with a more then sunny, spring like week forecast leading up to the festival ive no doubt it will be nearer the good mark then soft, in fact I doubt they ll be much soft in it at all but Chelt will NEVER let the supreme jump off on officially good ground even if that's what it is...good to soft in truth should be nearer 1-5 and im being serious. Expect the jockeys after the first couple of races to say its lovely safe jumping ground with a lush covering of grass and riding nearly good which I expect wed or thur to be officially....all the best.
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