Cheltenham Festival
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Weather and Going Updates
Weather and Going Updates
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How often is turftrax updated?
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Usually updated every day in the week leading up to the first day, not sure they'll update so regularly this far out.
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Official going Day 1 will be Soft. After the 1st race is run though and the time suggests the going is actually GOOD. The official going will then be changed to Good/Soft. Mark my words.
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don't know what information some people are referring to but the map I am looking at is all yellow and 5.9 is nowhere near good to soft
around 5 is heavy, 7 is the benchmark for good to soft, 8 for good ground (over jumps) |
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Lots of drizzly rain today and more light rain on Sunday/Monday. The start of next week looks like sunshine and showers and then maybe dry from Friday leading all the way up to the festival.
Soft is still available at 2/1.  |
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This is the wettest winter since 1995.
Opening day 1995 the going was soft. Is the drainage better now than in 1995? |
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jasey
They are forever doing work on the track during the summer. It is inconceivable that the drainage system hasn't been improved in nearly 20 years. |
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If it is indeed dry from the Friday to the Tuesday and there is any sun, wind and/or warmth then at the least it will be good to soft and heading towards good by the time of the first race in my view.
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What is it like in Cheltenham today...in Stratford here and it has been throwing it down!!
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SS
The forecast drizzle is actually a four hour downpour. Cold and miserable - no cricket here today I'm afraid. |
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thanks Sawyer (great horse by the way)....thought as much and that is interesting info. We had drizzle forecast here and since 6.30am has not stopped raining and we are only a few miles from you so I did wonder.
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The delights of a rainy Cheltenham
 hopefully we will see at least a dry day on the first day regardless of the going |
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It's looking like we're going to get soft ground this year, which is a shame, but as long as its not heavy I guess! If we get a couple of dry days near the first day we might have a chance, but that seems optimistic this year.
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If it is soft, at least most of the form has been on soft.
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thats a good point bud.....give me at least half a chance of using what information there is (as if that would help lol!)
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Rain all day here (not far from the course) and its still coming down strong now. The BBC website weather forecast for the week ahead has rain on and off. It will be worth watching the Country File forecast on Sunday evening. I reckon 'Soft' is pretty much a cert. Maybe a saver on 'Heavy' if we have another day like today.
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It really depends on what happens the last 5 days immediately beforehand as the course dries so quickly especially with the sun and/or wind. There is a scare most years. In 2007 it had been bad and the alarmists were saying it might be off. There were floods in the fields on the way to the course on the Tues and yet the going was not so bad. I admit we really have had a lot this year and if as ye report its bucketing down all day it all has to tell eventually. The last/next week-end will tell a lot. We seem to forget that it pisses most winters and springs.
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It will certainly be verging on heavy by the end of today but if the forecasts are correct then tomorrow is dry and brightish, with another band of rain arriving for Sunday / Monday, so will still be very soft come Tuesday morning. Then it looks showery before it then becomes dry and bright from Friday/Saturday all the way to the festival and beyond.
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The only 2 bookies betting on the going are Hills and Sid James and, given all the above, amazingly they have both shortened 'good' in the last hour or two and SJ have lengthened soft from 7/4 to 15/8 in the last 15 minutes.
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Arkle - fair point about the drainage and about what happens in the final 5 days will be crucial. But this is the wettest winter since records began and the water table will be higher than its ever been. Hopefully Claisse will be on the ML tomorrow to give an update.
Thanks Uncle for that info. Time to weigh in again! |
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Forecasts beyond Tue next wee are guesses and as for the end of next week through to the festival itself those are models based on previous years trends - no scientific forecasting at all so irrelevant really. Five day forcasts are the only ones worth noting. Woe betide anyone betting based on forecasts beyond 5 days - total madness.
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I'm only basing my selections on the current state of the ground (Soft) the current weather conditions (Rain), along with the forecast for the week (Showers). True, a lot can change before a week on Tuesday but at the prices taken and still available (on Soft) its a value bet in my eyes.
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sat 1st frost
sun 2nd 5mm rain Monday 3rd 1.3mm rain Tuesday 4th till Tuesday 11th , completely dry, mild temp, wind speeds normal. i.e Tuesday 11th night time temp 5 degrees, day time 11 degrees, wind speed 15 km/h. |
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^ the above is extremely accurate.
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Lol. If only we could predict the weather accurately 11 days in advance, there would be no need for this thread.
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i'm just saying . believe me or not, I don't care. 7 dry days before the start and no rain the week of the festival.
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that's not strictly true according to what ive just looked at.
Has rain about the next week in the Cheltenham area,but there don't seem a lot of it,2 or 3 days with chances of rain. could be dry,but may not be. |
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Never heard such tripe, 10 day forecast extremely accurate!!! Rule of thumb in met office is you lose 10% accuracy every day. So for tomorrow prediction accuracy is 90% and in five days 50%, so trying to predict start of festival is 0%. So nobody knows not even the experts, just pure guess work. Next five days are rain and dry days mixed so five days before festival ground will be soft/heavy, after that who knows!
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I agree with Budd could be dry,but may not be.
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don't see what all the fuss is about.....people posting Shiite about weather forecasts.....water tables....wind speeds.....did ya ever hear such crrap......theres even ghouls trying to bet on whether it will be good.....soft or heavy......
why don't people sit back until next weekend.....look at the forecasts and make a judgement(educated guess) if they want to at that stage..... the only thing I can guarantee at this stage with absolute certainty is that Simon Claisse and everyone else at Cheltenham racecourse......will be hoping Last Instalment doesn't run never mind win.....so you can be certain that the gold cup course will be allowed dry up as much as possible....... |
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yeh,never really got into betting on the ground myself,but each to their own.
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keep it real paulie
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yes harry....all the fancied ones are English.....and will like good ground.....the irish horse who they wont want within an arses roar of the meeting with the cloud over him......they will water to suit him and help him win.....they will in their hole...
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I think they will let it dry, because if it rains too much that chip on Paulies shoulder will grow into a monster potato
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they will want it softish on the 1st day,then see what happens I guess.
I believe they have watered during the week itself in the past,so if it did get too good they could do so again. But cannot see that happening this year!! |
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been a lovely dry day in Cheltenham today lads started with a little frost then the suns been out all day lets hope it stays this way
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current going is now good to firm, firm in places
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has it been tarmacked
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accuweather.com has it as sunshine for the festival, it can't be, can it ?????????????????????????????????
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Far too early to be accurate yet. Lets not get too excited!
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