Cheltenham Festival
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JOCI Club's 2014 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
JOCI Club's 2014 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
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Youve left out Zarkandar from WH, Joci.
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joci no rating for zarkandar in the world?
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Brilliant stuff Joci.great work
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Sorry gents, might have been a bit trigger happy with the delete function in Excel....will get back on it!
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World Hurdle
With Zarkandar reinstated: At Fishers Cross47 63% Big Buck´s47 63% Rule The World54 58% Reve De Sivola47 57% Celestial Halo26 54% Annie Power47 53% Zarkandar26 50% Medinas103 46% Mala Beach49 45% Thousand Stars74 42% Boston Bob47 41% More Of That89 40% Quevega322 40% Mickie26 37% Salubrious82 37% Trustan Times54 37% |
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Great work as usual this forum wouldn't be the same without you
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Triumph Hurdle
Field of 26. Ratings up to date, but could change should there be a significant move in the betting for any horses not in the current top 4. Will update nearer the off. Pearl Castle23 81% Rutherglen29F 77% Guitar Pete33 76% Royal Irish Hussar90 74% Broughton40 70% Calipto34 70% Activial20 65% Abbyssial20 57% Handiwork27 57% Plinth33 57% Le Rocher48 56% Tiger Roll33 51% Goodwood Mirage20 44% Ivan Grozny33 44% Lindenhurst160 44% Akdam13F 37% Ballyglasheen48 32% Kentucky Hyden48 32% Cherry Tiger8 32% Clarcam40 27% Noble Inn50 26% Streak13 26% Achtung13 25% Gitane Du Berlais54 25% Amoruccio21 20% Adriana Des Mottes20 20% |
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Albert Bartlett
Updated at latest declaration stage: Kings Palace90 93% Briar Hill68 87% Captain Cutter76 82% Deputy Dan62 82% Faugheen76 74% Royal Boy62 74% Urban Hymn48 73% Champagne West55 67% Blakemount48 66% Rathvinden48 65% Vautour33 64% Apache Jack68 59% Mosspark22 59% Sausalito Sunrise48 58% Rydon Pynes34 57% Sure Reef47 57% Knock House55 51% Masters Hill62 51% The Job Is Right22 50% Perfect Gentleman22 49% Cogry21 48% Mountain Tunes85 43% Pleasant Company21 43% Port Melon118 43% Urano15 43% Very Wood68 43% Saint Roque42 38% Madness Light48 34% Valseur Lido83 34% Regal Diamond23 33% Prince Siegfried62 26% Renneti77 26% Caledonia27 15% |
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Gold Cup
Updated for the latest decs and the supplementary entry for On His Own. Bobs Worth76 88% Silviniaco Conti78 79% Last Instalment33 74% Captain Chris27 56% Harry Topper34 51% First Lieutenant33 51% Lord Windermere33 51% The Giant Bolster48 45% Houblon Des Obeaux27 40% Triolo D´Alene104 39% Lyreen Legend33 39% Cloudy Too27 34% Bog Warrior27 28% Knockara Beau29 23% On His Own20 22% Teaforthree27 21% Katenko34 18% |
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Foxhunters
Ratings at latest declaration stage and after a couple of additional runs affecting the ratings: Current Exchange7 100% Harbour Court20P 92% On The Fringe33 92% Divine Intavention17 90% Made In Time23 89% Minella Stars26P 81% Certain Flight22 81% Shy John29 81% Ravethebrave19P 80% Oscar Delta27P 74% Kirkleigh12P 73% Gale Force Oscar12 73% Ganbei19P 73% Ockey De Neulliac27 71% Palypso De Creek23 71% Tammys Hill20 71% The Hollinwell19P 71% Carsonstown Boy20P 69% Doctor Kingsley41 63% Croan Rock23 63% Pearlysteps37 61% That´s Rhythm40 61% Berties Dream40P 61% Double Bank16 60% Boxing Along19P 54% Foundry Square23 49% Lucette Annie26P 45% Up There12P 31% |
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Rewards for Racing Novices Handicap Chase
Have only rated horses 1 to 40, as little realistic chnce of nything below that getting a run I'd have thought. Will revise if I'm incorrect with that assumption when final decs available. 20 The Romford Pele34 85% Manyriverstocross38 80% Ericht37 73% Dursey Sound14 71% Une Artiste32 67% Indian Castle45 65% Present View17 65% 33 Buywise34 64% Close House40 60% Persian Snow18 58% Ahyaknowyerself49 58% 22 No Buts31 56% 27 Top Of The Range20 56% 15 Up And Go19 55% Balnaslow47 55% Dark Lover17 53% Up To Something46 52% Passage Vendome94 50% Pendra80 49% 29 King Vuvuzela45 49% 26 Wrong Turn44 49% Attaglance37 48% 25 Sizing Machine24 47% 23 Le Reve24 47% 19 Christopher Wren39 47% 18 The Way We Were31 47% Baby Mix80 46% 34 Festive Affair55 46% 31 Buthelezi99 46% 30 Ohio Gold45 43% Cause Of Causes74 43% 21 Firm Order20 42% 16 Bobcatbilly24 42% 17 Harry Hunt13 41% Art Of Logistics75 39% Muldoon´s Picnic63 39% Grandads Horse122 34% 28 Gardefort24 34% 24 The Cockney Mackem80 32% 32 Tony Star143 28% |
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Will you be updating each race and posting on here after the final decs are known Joci or are these your final standings?
Thanx in advance |
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I'll update as much as possible this weekend, and during the festival, as things can change last minute.
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Cheers joci this is by far the best festival thread.
My lay if the festival seems to be one of your hot ones lol. Maybe I'll trade some back. |
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My speciality is the Handicap Hurdles.
Cant wait to see how my selections compare to your ratings JOCI Mine are: FRED WINTER - Space Ship CORAL CUP - BAYAN (NAP) PERTEMPS - Jetson COUNTY - Garde Le Victoire MARTIN PIPE - The Skyfarmer Hope you have some of them in the top section of the ratings. |
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We will see, but not looked at them yet on account of the large field size. Some of these handicaps will be the final piece of the jigsaw for me.
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Great stuff Joci as always , already backed Many Clouds and Current Exchange the 100% horses and also some nice early ew bets on some others great thread as always Joci
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Coral Cup
For now, I've only rated the top 40 runners in the Coral Cup to provide some 'indicative' ratings: Un Temps Pour Tout 25 94% Timesremembered 46 84% Upazo 60 83% Dell´ Arca 32 82% Waaheb 67 81% Lac Fontana 46 81% Vendor 32 79% Indevan 116 78% Magnifique Etoile 109 78% Kaylif Aramis 25 76% Bayan 129F 75% Smashing 32 72% Whisper 39 72% Rum And Butter 145 72% Calculated Risk 76 71% Sametegal 38 71% Un Beau Matin 24 71% Flaxen Flare 46 71% Cotton Mill 102 70% Far West 32 70% Clondaw Kaempfer 95 69% Dunguib 24 69% Ifandbutwhynot 53 65% Renneti 75 63% Une Artiste 33 63% Vieux Lion Rouge 20 63% Oscars Well 38 58% Doctor Harper 4 54% Noble Prince 87 53% Party Rock 34 53% Yesyoucan 47 52% Edgardo Sol 89 52% Rocky Wednesday 17 47% Get Me Out Of Here 115 46% Meister Eckhart 17 44% Very Wood 66 39% Clerk´s Choice 27F 38% Sadler´s Risk 38 36% Son Of Flicka 21 35% Hazy Tom 23 33% Hold fire for now though, til running plans are known. |
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Cheers JOCI,
BAYAN is close enough to the top, to give me some confidence, especially as the clear top-rated is a likely NR. |
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Loving the thread. How many of your 13 winners from last year were top rated? Thanks for all the hard work you've put in.
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Whirly...here goes:
Champagne Fever (100%) Simonsig (85%) Golden Chieftain (83%) [Hurricane Fly was 1% behind Rock On Ruby in Champion Hurdle] The New One (100%) [Boston Bob was top rated for RSA and looked the einner til falling] Sprinter Sacre (97%) Medinas (90% joint top rated of four) [Our Connor was 2% 2nd top rated in Triumph] At Fishers Cross (86%) Salsify (93%) with 50/1 2nd placed Divine Intavention next best on 90% Alderwood (78%) |
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Intrigued about the Current Exchange 100% - didn't it PU in last years?
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Yes, perhaps one not to go too overboard about.
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Fred Winter
Can't post up everything as I've transferred everything to the laptop which doesn't have internet facility, but here are the top several rated. Zamoyski 92% Akdam 76% Space Ship 71% Powder Hound 71% Brave Helios 71% Gerdago 70% Invan Grozny 70% Sea Beat 70% Thorpe 70% Certification 70% Orgilgo Bay 70% Bit of a minefield without knowing what's going to be turning up, and quite a few of the top rated need quite a few to drop out in order to get a run. Watching brief closer to the off is advised. This will be my last update til I get to Cheltenham, when I will try and post up the top rated horses as much as I can. Good luck to everyone! |
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Day 1 Bets
I will be having more closer to the time, but the horses backed so far on day 1 are: 1:30 Vautour, Wicklow Brave & Gilgamboa 2:05 Nothing yet, but will be backing Trifolium & Dodging Bullets 2:40 Time For Rupert, Hadrians Approach & Vintage Star 3:20 Nothing yet, but will be backing Hurricane Fly & My Tent Or Yours 4:00 Nothing yet, but in addition to Quevega, will be backing to place (possibly e/w) Glens Melody & Highland Retreat 4:40 Midnight Prayer & Milborough 5:15 Ericht & Manyriverstocross (will have a look at Dursey Sound on the day) Good luck all! |
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Just having a Guinness in the Rising Sun on Cleeve Hill......lovely weather here!
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its nice up there joci enjoy an thx for the posts top work
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You enjoy yourself Joci and thanks for all your hard work , best of luck with your selections stay safe and God Bless
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I have sunk a few in there joci, good luck.
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Pleased with that in the end. Good start with Vautour. Then made to sweat with Quevega's win. Happy to have put up Glens Melody as an each way alternative but in the end I just had a bigger bet on Quevega and didnt do the exacta. Landed the 4 miler with Midnight Prayer to cap a decent start to the Festival.
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Milborough ran an absolutely stunning race in the 4-miler there, and was bang there at the last
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JOCI what are you backing today, and whats your NAP and Next Best?
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1.30 faugheen 90% / Red Sherlock 79%
2.05 Many Clouds 100% Don Cossack 85% 2.40 Dell arca 89% Timesremembered 84% Kalif Aramis 82% Waaheb 81% 3.20 Arvika Ligeonniere 82% Sire De Grugy 80% 4.00 Sizing Australia 72% Balthazar King 64% 4.40 Akdam 76% Gerdago 70% Ivan Grozny 70% Certification 70% Orgilgo Bay 70% 5.15 Value At Risk 91% Silver Concorde 81% Vigil 73% Nap Many Clouds NB Value At Risk. / Faugheen |
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Cheers JOCI.
I am v.big on BAYAN in the County. Also got FAUGHEEN at 12/1 to win any race in November. The other fancies I have are BARADARI (hopefully V Williams usual 20/1+ handicap winner) and SHANESHILL - visually so impressive when kicking clear in November, on good ground - with Ruby up - excellent. Lets hope we both kick off with a Faugheen win in the first. Good luck |
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deepingfox
12 Mar 14 11:52 Joined: 10 Jun 01 | Topic/replies: 164 | Blogger: deepingfox's blog Also got FAUGHEEN at 12/1 to win any race in November Well he won at Punchestown on the 17th November so you should have been payed out already for that one. |
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4 winners today in Faugheen, Sire De Grugy, Balthazar King and Silver Concorde. Peed off with the RSA Chase with 2nd top rated Don Cossack falling and bringing down Many Clouds especially since O Faolins Boy won. In Istabraq Bar now then off to Bishops Cleeve curry house then to boozer for form study!
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Must be a fair few pints up after your bumper winner JOCI?
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Working on it after fading badly in pub last night. Had set a target of 8 winners and have 7 so far so good going. I did draw a blank on Thursday last year though.
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Do you not do level stakes on your picks the JOCI?
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Varying stakes. Did not fancy Sizing Australia that much so only small bet with bigger bet Balthazar King.
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