Cheltenham Festival
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JOCI Club's 2014 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
JOCI Club's 2014 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
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MDWS - the stats were for horses finishing second (largely to Quevega). Was looking for something to back as well as the wonder mare, to make the frame.
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Joki its just you had Quevega further down the list at 61%. I know she's good but were you suggesting she could win and had a 61% chance of finishing second to herself - only joking but couldnt resist. Anyway keep up the good work.
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I think it's a shame she was never allowed to go for a different race.
But her records immense and hope she wins again. |
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so course and distance winners dont get any points ?
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Once again, I'm stripping out Quevega's wins to focus on the other runners as far as the trends go.
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Why is Quevega so low?
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Seriously, good post as ever Joci. Cheers
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shockster 28 Feb 14 13:00 Joined: 26 Oct 05 | Topic/replies: 1,204 | Blogger: shockster's blog Why is Quevega so low? DevilLaugh |
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National Hunt Chase
Have been ploughing through this race for the last day or so. Still not quite finished, but I noticed that Benvolio is scoring highly. Checked the price on Betfair and it's 90/1. No idea what the running plans are, but tempting even if only for a couple of quid........ |
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no mention on the horse from nicholls in his cheltenham column
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Thanks, that may be why!
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National Hunt Chase
Running plans still unclear for many, but here's what the trends are saying: Benvolio16 93% Whats Happening17 85% Holywell20 84% Milborough38 84% Faultless Feelings73 83% Mendip Express31 83% Midnight Prayer31 82% According To Trev45 76% Beeves46 76% Edmund Kean17 76% Standing Ovation17 76% Swatow Typhoon17 76% Black Thunder59 75% Foxrock23 74% Herdsman29 74% O´Faolains Boy24 72% Ely Brown24 65% Gullinbursti45 65% Hunting Party47 65% Just A Par75 63% Corrin Wood59 63% Don Cossack30 63% Dursey Sound14 63% Morning Assembly72 63% Shotgun Paddy59 63% Si C´Etait Vrai17 63% Toby Lerone38 63% Balnaslow47 62% Firm Order20 62% Shutthefrontdoor87 62% Suntiep38 62% Rogue Angel52 56% Shrapnel23 55% Adrenalin Flight32 55% Brassick37 53% Dungeel24 53% Hit The Headlines51 53% Heathfield72 52% Merlin´s Wish61 52% Living Next Door45 51% Sharney Sike17 50% Cause Of Causes74 49% Wrong Turn44 48% Spring Heeled74 45% Coolking40 44% The Job Is Right19 44% Guess Again88 44% Le Reve24 44% Touch The Eden70 42% Ballycasey30 40% Aibrean54 40% Slew Charm88 38% American Spin74 32% Grand Jesture51 32% |
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think i'm fecked if your right here joci
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Who do you fancy?
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well haven't got enough on yet and no liquidity on here but am strong on one and is probably my strongest fancy at present for the meeting, will put it on the thread when i have had what i want to get on
sorry always a tad cagey joci, just hope i haven't fecked it up, we will see but will make or brake the meeting for me, so want the best price to maximize profit we hope |
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Positive proof that my trends analysis has the power to move the market.....Benvolio originally at 90s on here, now out to 110!
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tough race this, surprised you've got milborough so high pal
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joci how did your trends fair in this race last year?
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Is Ballycasey going for this ?
Bookies really don't seem to know what to do with him, as low as 5/1, as high as 16's, 20 on here. |
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RSA chase certainty
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harry - last year's top rated Godsmejudge 3rd @ 7/1.
Horse Score Finished Godsmejudge32 84% 3 Emperor´s Choice14 81% 7 Highland Lodge31 76% 6 Present To You19 74% 8 Tofino Bay22 73% 2 Hawkes Point31 72% PU Back In Focus75 71% 1 Drawn N Drank55 64% PU Buddy Bolero42 62% 4 Rival D´Estruval94 62% F Sacred Mountain27 61% UR Our Island67 56% 5 Rose Of The Moon84 54% PU Top Smart15 50% F Scampi Boy17 22% UR Heathyards Flyer315 20% PU |
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thanks joci
is this a good race for you in previous years joci? if your memory serves you well that is |
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Champion Bumper
Never seem to be confident about the bumper, because you have inexperienced horses who may only have run once or twice and who might have the capacity to improve enormously on what they have shown so far. With that said, here is the opinion of the trends: Value At Risk73 91% Silver Concorde74 81% Aminabad46 81% Foryourinformation39 73% Vigil31 73% The Govaness116 72% Killultagh Vic17 70% Shaneshill102 70% Champoleon66 70% Neck Or Nothing115 66% Third Act33 64% Great Try23 63% Time For A Pint182 63% Modus70 63% Golantilla17 62% Westhorpe18 61% El Namoose54 54% Western Way184 54% Assam Black118 53% Definitly Red32 53% Joshua Lane82 53% Heritage Way29 52% Imagine The Chat32 52% Seven Nation Army32 52% Zeroeshadesofgrey21 52% Carningli82 51% Black Hercules48 49% Oscarteea82 49% Stack The Deck48 49% Arthur Mc Bride104 43% Big Mike15 43% Mike McCann143 43% Mountain Of Mourne32 43% No Dice25 43% Royal Vacation25 43% Flying Eagle20 40% Our Kaempfer115 40% Izzini325 40% Princely Conn31 33% Agha Des Mottes14 30% Coyaba70 30% |
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NH is interesting Joci as my stats normally agree with yours to a close margin, but we are miles different on the NH! I have Corrin wood, black thunder and shotgun paddy as clear standouts
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It is indeed, and the trends are just indicative, and should be used in conjunction with form and gut feel as well.
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Cross Country Chase
Not sure I'm 100% keen on the top trends horse as I think I backed him last year to be let down, but it is what it is. A couple of pounds higher than when 5th last year, but did run a good race in November, just going down to Love Rory when giving weight. Sizing Australia24 72% Quel Esprit31 67% Balthazar King117 64% Long Strand32P 62% Quiscover Fontaine38 60% Big Shu38 58% Classic Cut24P 57% Sire Collonges89 56% Nedzer´s Return38 55% Duke Of Lucca89 54% Wrong Turn45 53% Bishopsfurze38 53% Uncle Junior38 52% Love Rory38 52% Pasquini Rouge89 51% Any Currency60 50% Shalimar Fromentro55 49% Sin Palo75 49% A Stray Shot38 48% Diamond Harry62 47% Soll25 46% Duers38 42% Imperial Circus89 41% Quantitativeeasing45P 41% Star Neuville319 41% Jacks Island21 41% Sacree Tiepy343 39% Aimigayle89 36% Tarquinius48 36% Union Jack D´Ycy19 35% The Corby Glenn24P 35% Red Rocco25 33% Hunters Lodge39 33% Giles Cross389 33% Boxer Georg55 29% Le Grand Chene21 28% Hey Big Spender60 27% |
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Hi JOCI
Enjoy your trend posts every year But have you ever thought that some festival races have a better trends strike rate than others for highlighting winners! Which would you rate as your top 5 trends races? |
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Hard to say to be honest. Only been using this approach for 2 years now, and I'd need at least 10 before being able to answer.
My previous approach was to go through the trends one by one, eliminating horses if they didn't satisfy one of them to be left with a small shortlist or even a single horse. Even though this was a 'quick and dirty' approach that did provide winners, I wasn't completely happy with eliminating a horse just because it failed one of the trends. So I struck upon the idea of evaluating each horse against every trend, and weighting the importance of each trend, so that kind of on average, I'd be highlighting the horses with statistically the best chance of winning. But, in all seiousness, because I had an exceptional year last year (13 winners) means nothing this year, and I could easily find myself struggling to get a couple of winners. That's the nature of racing. Once you think you've found the Holy Grail, it turns into a damp squib. |
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Thanks for reply
Have used trends for a few years now and think this idea could have legs for a multiple bet over the 4 days but haven't enough data to establish the strongest trends races yet! |
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The Arkle Chase is probably one of the stronger trend races.
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Gold Cup
With a few ORs to sort out for the Irish Runners and the final betting picture to be determined, here are the current trends rankings of the potential Gold Cup runners: Bobs Worth 88% Silviniaco Conti 79% Last Instalment 74% Cue Card 73% Dynaste 63% Lord Windermere 57% Long Run 51% Harry Topper 51% First Lieutenant 51% Captain Chris 50% Unioniste 45% The Giant Bolster 45% Lyreen Legend 45% Mount Benbulben 40% Houblon Des Obeaux 40% Boston Bob 40% Triolo D´Alene 39% Roi Du Mee 34% Cloudy Too 34% Vino Griego 34% Bog Warrior 34% Rocky Creek 28% Knockara Beau 23% Teaforthree 21% Katenko 18% Medermit 17% |
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Triumph Hurdle
Initial trend ratings as follows: Pearl Castle23 81% Rutherglen29F 77% Guitar Pete33 76% Royal Irish Hussar90 74% Broughton40 70% Calipto34 70% Activial20 65% Violet Dancer36 59% Abbyssial20 57% Handiwork27 57% Hawk High27 57% Plinth33 57% Le Rocher48 56% Commissioned20 51% Tiger Roll33 51% Duroble Man20 51% Forced Family Fun30 51% Chocala33 44% Goodwood Mirage20 44% Ivan Grozny33 44% Lindenhurst160 44% Azza118 39% Aurore D´Estruval27 39% All Pepper20 38% Agreement20 38% Powder Hound34 38% Space Ship27 38% Akdam13F 37% The Brock Again68 32% Ballyglasheen48 32% Kentucky Hyden48 32% Orgilgo Bay33 31% Clarcam40 27% Alcala20 26% Noble Inn50 26% Streak13 26% Achtung13 25% Cherry Tiger14 25% Halling´s Treasure13 25% Gitane Du Berlais54 25% Amoruccio21 20% Adriana Des Mottes20 20% Sunblazer140F 19% Cadoudoff76 13% Arzembouy Premier50 12% |
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Albert Bartlett
Preliminary ratings for the current Albert Bartlett field: Kings Palace90 93% Briar Hill68 87% Captain Cutter76 82% Deputy Dan62 74% Faugheen76 74% Royal Boy62 74% Urban Hymn48 73% Red Sherlock48 69% Blakemount48 66% Kaki De La Pree27 66% Rathvinden48 65% Timesremembered48 65% Vautour33 64% Apache Jack68 59% Champagne West55 59% Clondaw Court57 59% Kris Spin20 59% Mosspark22 59% Cole Harden27 58% Sausalito Sunrise48 58% Thunder And Roses40 58% Rydon Pynes34 57% Sure Reef47 57% Doing Fine111 51% Knock House55 51% Masters Hill62 51% Moonshine Lad22 51% Noble Endeavor23 51% River Of Time138P 51% The Job Is Right22 50% Urticaire23 50% Carole´s Destrier33 49% Gilt Shadow47 49% Perfect Gentleman22 49% Cogry21 48% Double Irish22 48% Mountain Tunes85 43% Pleasant Company21 43% Port Melon118 43% Urano15 43% Very Wood68 43% Wounded Warrior47 42% Tara Road37 40% Saint Roque42 38% Ashes House66 34% Company Coming26 34% Madness Light48 34% Moyle Park77 34% Red Devil Lads13 34% Upazo62 34% Valseur Lido83 34% Potters Cross23 33% Regal Diamond23 33% Aklan61 26% Prince Siegfried62 26% Renneti77 26% Cyrien Star20 25% Diamond Life462 25% Caledonia27 15% |
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JOCI Club, do you change the weightings of trends after each years new Festival results are known?
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Yes, always weighted on the last 10 years trends, so as they change, so do my weightings.
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JOCI thanks for the Spreads, I completely follow what you are doing, and think its a wonderful way to reduce each field down to a shortlist.
Its a more complete version of what I have been producing from trend analysis for the last 3 years - fantastic stuff. |
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Great stuff Joci, keep it up
I also start off by putting a line through anything that has run poorly beforehand at Cheltenham and going from there thanks again |
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Hi Joci. Great stuff and I will be using these ratings this year as it's going to save loads of time which this year I just haven't got.
Just one thing I would suggest that you may wish to consider to help make your ratings even better than they already are (and would take minimal time I suspect) If you're basing them on 10 year trends then I assume you are 'weighting' each year the same ? But then the 11th year, 12th and 13th are discounted completely. It seems to basically go from 100% in year 10 to 0% in year 11, which doesn't appear logical as it's too much of a % gap Perhaps s weighting like that below would suit better ? Years 1 - 10 - 100% Year 11 - 75% Year 12 - 50% Year 13 - 25% As, you have the old information anyway perhaps it could be added in some way ? I don't see how it could make it worse, but do think it would make it even more accurate. Anyway thanks for all the info, brilliant job and good luck ! |
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Shrews, I only use the last ten years data, and I don't rate 'by year'. I weight each of the particular trends based on how 'important' they have been over the last ten years.
So, if the race has been won by horses aged 8 to 10 in 8 out of the last ten years this will get an 80% rating. If ten out of ten horses won last time out, this would get a 100% rating. I kind of like keeping it to just ten years (a) as it's easier to manage and (b) I wonder whether some trends lose their relevance / significance the further away you go from today. Right....back to the JLT Chase now............ |