Cheltenham Festival
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JOCI Club's 2014 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
JOCI Club's 2014 Cheltenham Festival Trends Analysis
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JLT Novices Chase
Current ratings for the JLT................running plans uncertain for many of these so expect some change at the top once plans become known. Don Cossack32 81% Felix Yonger46 81% Taquin Du Seuil54 81% Trifolium46 81% Ballycasey32 72% Bright New Dawn25 72% O´Faolains Boy26 72% Wonderful Charm90 72% Sizing Gold54 66% Oscar Whisky40 63% Djakadam47 63% Balnaslow49 56% Champagne Fever77 56% Mozoltov18 53% Arnaud47 47% Up And Go21 47% Caid Du Berlais47 47% Annacotty47 44% Art Of Logistics77 38% Cause Of Causes76 38% Mullaghanoe River47 38% Double Ross47 28% Eduard102 28% Rock On Ruby35 28% Some Tikket11 28% Uxizandre20 28% Colour Squadron89 19% Next Sensation74 19% Off The Ground89 19% Baby Shine17 19% Captain Ocana25 9% Shrapnel25 9% Vukovar75 9% |
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Also, very limited data range for this chase, so caution advised with the ratings.
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Foxhunters
Preliminary ratins for this race are as follows: Harbour Court20P 92% On The Fringe33 92% Divine Intavention17 90% Made In Time23 89% Current Exchange27 83% Minella Stars26P 81% Certain Flight22 81% Shy John29 81% Mossey Joe280 80% Ravethebrave19P 80% Oscar Delta27P 74% Kirkleigh26P 73% Ganbei19P 73% Ockey De Neulliac27 71% Palypso De Creek23 71% Tammys Hill20 71% The Hollinwell19P 71% Benedictus75P 70% Carsonstown Boy20P 69% Doctor Kingsley41 63% Round Tom19P 63% Croan Rock23 63% Pearlysteps37 61% That´s Rhythm40 61% Berties Dream40P 61% Boxing Along19P 54% Lorikarad26P 54% Gale Force Oscar284 52% Bold Addition58 51% Foundry Square23 49% Lucette Annie26P 45% Bay To Go48P 40% Double Bank40P 31% Up There61P 20% |
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Cheers for these mate. Will keep checking back for sure...
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Thanks, just use them as a guide rather than 'gospel'.
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The gospel according to Joci
I like the sound of that |
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Ryanair Chase
With riding plans somewhat up in the air, here are the latest trend ratings for the Ryanair Chase: Benefficient76 94% Al Ferof33 92% Cue Card77 91% First Lieutenant32 78% Dynaste77 78% Captain Conan96 77% Mount Benbulben19 76% Riverside Theatre26 76% Last Instalment32 70% Menorah77 69% Wishfull Thinking47 69% Cloudy Too26 61% Arvika Ligeonniere39 61% Tatenen40 59% Champion Court47 58% Rajdhani Express117 55% Boston Bob47 54% Medermit26 54% Module33 54% Sizing Europe76 53% Hidden Cyclone54 52% Alderwood136 52% Kid Cassidy76 46% Lyreen Legend32 46% Kauto Stone26 44% Roi Du Mee19 44% Rathlin39 44% Hunt Ball26 43% Time For Rupert22 43% Cantlow89 42% Baily Green32 37% Twinlight18 37% Rolling Aces26 36% Toner D´Oudairies18 36% Theatre Guide90 34% Prince De Beauchene56 29% Rubi Light21 26% Fago19 19% Rupert Lamb66 18% The two top rated horses Benefficient and Al Ferof well ahead of the chasing pack, given Cue Card's absence. |
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In terms of what's stopping the above two from being 100% horses, Benefficient didn't run in the King George and Al Ferof didn't post a sufficiently high RPR last time out. That said, my slight current preference would be for Benefficient.
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Hi JOCI,
Really enjoying your work. My best results in winning years the last 3 Festivals have been in hurdle races, particularly handicap hurdles. How successful was last years handicap hurdle selections? When will you be producing the ratings for them this week? - as the 5-day decs come through and shrink the fields to a manageable size? |
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Yes, once the fields have narrowed down. Will check last year's results regarding the handicap hurdles now.
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Medinas ended up joint top rated on 90% in the Coral Cup last year and won at 33/1 (I managed to get 42/1 on the Tote I think).
Nothing then in the other handicap hurdles until Day 4, when the final ratings pinpointed / shortlisted Ted Veale in the County Hurdle, who won at around 10/1. So two handicap hurdle winners at decent prices (but I did back a few of the top rated in each of those races). My other biggest winner was Golden Chieftain, who came in at a big price off bottom weight. Particularly enjoyed Champagne Fever winning the opener at a very tasty price for me. |
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I bet you were shouting it when my tent was attacking joci
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Baylis & Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase
Still a field of around 50 to get to grips with, but here is what the trends say so far, with just the likely SP trend factor to be added: Sraid Padraig101 90% Time For Rupert20 86% Buddy Bolero17 83% Indian Castle45 82% Hadrian´s Approach83 81% Vintage Star52 79% Cantlow87 78% Goulanes73 75% Holywell20 74% Tour Des Champs17 74% Muldoon´s Picnic63 73% Sydney Paget52 73% King Massini83 71% Annacotty45 70% Restless Harry24 70% Our Father24 68% Green Flag38 67% Top Of The Range20 67% Saint Are108 67% Twirling Magnet129 67% Alfie Sherrin108 67% Victrix Gale74 67% Spring Heeled74 66% Wrong Turn44 64% Soll24 63% Solix45 61% Vesper Bell47 61% Shakalakaboomboom20 60% Tap Night45 57% Ma Filleule74 57% Dursey Sound14 57% Rigadin De Beauchene24 56% Ackertac69 56% The Package364 55% Standing Ovation17 55% Make A Track17 53% Living Next Door45 53% Golden Chieftain24 53% Hunt Ball24 52% Toner D´Oudairies16 52% Tullamore Dew24 51% Cause Of Causes74 50% Wetak24 49% Aachen20 48% Vino Griego31 48% Fruity O´Rooney20 48% Relax17 43% Fine Parchment38 41% Renard45 36% Pacha Du Polder296 35% One to revisit closer to the time. |
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did u win anyth last year with your stats ?
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13 winners last year - my best ever haul, some at big prices. Fully understand this could be a 'one-off'. Did bet more than one horse in many of the races.
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Time for Rupert?!
  **** me, I didn't even relise it was still in training. The day that thing wins any race at the festival, even the charity race will be the day hell freezes over. |
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JOCI, as usual a really excellent number of comments and some very good thoughts/analysis, very similar to you I have never had such a good Cheltenham as last year, I remember having backed Champagne for the Supreme at 16's for a nice few quid and having big, big lumps on My Tent at 14's reading your Supreme analysis and saying to myself how right you were I carried on lumping on Champagne,I even got some 18's I think- all of which was very risky because everyone else was telling me he was not going to run in the Supreme. I spent the Tuesday morning laying off both horses to recover my stakes plus, plus and then the race. I walked up to the local Ladbrokes and paced around waiting for the off, one out I was screaming and I mean screaming everyone in the Rainham shop was aghast at my behaviour, the funny thing was I was cheering MY Tent as he took up the lead, only to shout even louder when Champagne came back, what an afternoon. I watched the Champion Hurdle telling everyone that my 'mate' Joci reckoned Hurricane was a good thing, they all tanked on. By the time Hurricane got over the line I needed to lie down, I was that exhausted, I was actually drunk on the sheer emotion of the day and I have never one so much money in my life- what a lovely memory.
Back to this year as per usual I have spent many hours studying, for me it is the hurdle races that I focus upon, Supreme, Champion, Neptune, Albert Bartlett and World Hurdle- yet this year I am really struggling so any would really be helpful. I always think that get off to a good start you are flying..... Joci thanks again and I will look forward to hearing your views on the Supreme and Neptune. Ginger |
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Yep, great story that. I suppose we've all got those memories but they're nearly always few and far between. I suppose that's what make them 'great memories'
Here's to a few more ! |
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Great to hear Ginger. Let's hope we get a bit of good fortune again this year!
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JOCI a great thread this one and stories like Ginger's just add to it.
I had a look at the Festival Handicap last night from a Stats and form perspective. I came up with Sraid Padraig and I've taken the 20/1 NRNB. Also some 40/1 on Betfair - that price suggests he may be 50/50 to run. Interestingly my other 2 fancies are Time for Rupert and Buddy Bolero who are the others in your top 3 at present. Time will tell eh!! |
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i'll echo what many have said here joci ..very generous , impressive stuff. if you are anything like accurate i expect to have my bets restricted due to 'joci -wise '...good luck.
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Another few hours of study awaits now back from work. One more day tomorrow, then off for the week, travelling down on Monday. Will be taking laptop though, to finish off the other races when down there.
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Joci, out of interest, do you count winning a PTP as having won over 3m? I have sraid padraig 7th at the moment as i only count a 3m win if it's under rules. King Massini is top for me along with muldoons picnic and vintage star. Do like time for Rupert though
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Tory - that's a good point, and it's one area where I can be a little bit inconsistent. I can fluctuate from time to time in terms of how a view PTP races. I can certainly understand how you might want to discount PTP form on occasions like this, and in some races I do. Others I don't, can't really be much more specific or give a good reason for it. So, if you don't value the form of a PTP win over 3 miles, Sraid Padraig would rate lower.
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Neptune Novices Hurdle
Rankings at the latest declaration sage would be: Briar Hill66 90% Faugheen74 90% Red Sherlock46 79% Deputy Dan60 79% Rathvinden46 79% Royal Boy60 78% Un Temps Pour Tout25 70% Vautour31 69% Captain Cutter74 68% Cole Harden25 61% Creepy46 61% Royal Regatta70 61% Sure Reef45 60% Knock House53 52% Shanahan´s Turn73 52% Fennell Bay28 51% Madness Light46 51% Valseur Lido81 51% Lieutenant Colonel38 49% Ballyalton70 49% Midnight Thunder14 41% Pleasant Company19 41% Twelve Roses76 41% Lac Fontana46 40% Renneti75 40% Sky Khan20F 40% Killala Quay60 39% Cup Final18 32% Cocktails At Dawn89 22% It appears to be between the top two. |
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Thanks Joci - that's the beauty of stats, it's how you interpret them. Got my fingers badly burned 2yrs back by counting Boston Bob' s PTP as a win over 3m in the AB, when the stats if you took that away screamed Brindisi breeze (R.I.P). Ever since then I've only counted a 3m win if over hurdles or fences in rules
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Can certainly understand that!
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Neptune Novices Hurdle
Rankings at the latest declaration sage would be: Briar Hill66 90% Faugheen74 90% Red Sherlock46 79% Deputy Dan60 79% Rathvinden46 79% Royal Boy60 78% Un Temps Pour Tout25 70% Vautour31 69% Captain Cutter74 68% Cole Harden25 61% Creepy46 61% Royal Regatta70 61% Sure Reef45 60% Knock House53 52% Shanahan´s Turn73 52% Fennell Bay28 51% Madness Light46 51% Valseur Lido81 51% Lieutenant Colonel38 49% Ballyalton70 49% Midnight Thunder14 41% Pleasant Company19 41% Twelve Roses76 41% Lac Fontana46 40% Renneti75 40% Sky Khan20F 40% Killala Quay60 39% Cup Final18 32% Cocktails At Dawn89 22% It appears to be between the top two. Betting does suggest Briar Hill will be running elsewhere. |
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Evening Joci great stuff , just 1 question and sorry for my ignorance , you gave rankings for a race I cant find the one where Sraid Padraig is top in your rankings , does it have another name , any help appreciated ta
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flan, Tuesday 2.40
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Good man Soul Dancer cheers will have a more in depth look now
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That's the race Ive already backed Holywell in and Golden Chieftain who won for me last year at Cheltenham , ah well you pay your dough you take your chance , will keep an eye out for Sraid Padraig now though as well
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Good luck! Holywell for me was interesting for the 4 miler...comes out close to top rated.
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Evening Joci , I just like Holywell and Im sure he has won at Cheltenham before which is always a huge plus imho . So whatever race he goes for I will back him , backed him in NRNB anyway for the race Im talking about and also in 4 miler again NRNB . Will defo top up one race is known , great work fella really enjoy reading your work and best of luck this year again
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JLT Novices Chase
Revised rankings at the latest declaration stage. Still not entirely certain about running plans. Don Cossack32 81% Felix Yonger46 81% Taquin Du Seuil54 81% Ballycasey32 72% Bright New Dawn25 72% Wonderful Charm90 72% Sizing Gold54 66% Oscar Whisky40 63% Djakadam47 63% Balnaslow49 56% Champagne Fever77 56% Mozoltov18 53% Caid Du Berlais47 47% Art Of Logistics77 38% Double Ross47 28% Rock On Ruby35 28% Uxizandre20 28% Colour Squadron89 19% Off The Ground89 19% Captain Ocana25 9% Vukovar75 9% |
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Ryanair Chase
Latest ratings now the field has been whittled down: Benefficient76 94% Al Ferof33 92% First Lieutenant32 78% Dynaste77 78% Last Instalment32 70% Menorah77 69% Wishfull Thinking47 69% Arvika Ligeonniere39 61% Tatenen40 59% Champion Court47 58% Rajdhani Express117 55% Boston Bob47 54% Medermit26 54% Module33 54% Hidden Cyclone54 52% Kid Cassidy76 46% Kauto Stone26 44% Rathlin39 44% Hunt Ball26 43% Cantlow89 42% Prince De Beauchene56 29% I'm feeling the love for Benefficent in the Ryanair. Al Ferof could be a big danger if back to bets, but will he be? |
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Hi JOCI,
Great work again - no 100% selections yet? |
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World Hurdle
Think I will be swerving everyone's favourite, Annie Power. Would need evidence of her staying ability to be able to part with my hard earned against the likes of the legendary Big Buck's and proven stayer At Fishers Cross. At Fishers Cross47 63% Big Buck´s47 63% Rule The World54 58% Reve De Sivola47 57% Celestial Halo26 54% Annie Power47 53% Medinas103 46% Mala Beach49 45% Thousand Stars74 42% Boston Bob47 41% More Of That89 40% Quevega322 40% Mickie26 37% Salubrious82 37% Trustan Times54 37% Big Buck's could be the one where everyone is saying 'how could I have been so stupid' if he romps home. Either that or I'll be the one in the stand with his head in his hands as Annie Power strolls home on the bridle. |
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05 Jun 03 | Topic/replies: 27 | Blogger: Kingchip's blog Hi JOCI, Great work again - no 100% selections yet? Many Clouds (RSA) so far! On at 20s. Will top up for the place too. |
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Hopefully the Coral Cup ratings are soon to be revealed Joci - stop your slacking
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