Cheltenham Festival
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 1069 comments are related to the topic:
Faugheen
Faugheen
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 1,069
|
By:
Would have preferred a run but I'm not too bothered in all honesty. He's in the best possible hands and surely all the travelling to and from Britain must take a bit out the horse? We know he's not gonna run him against the fly, at least not until Punchestown in April perhaps but Mullins will have him in peak condition come March, he knows what it takes to win a Champion Hurdle. Ignore the weakness on the exchanges, it's more money in our pockets at the end of the day! Roll on March until we see the machine!
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
What weakness in the exchanges? He is still too short in the market given the next 3 in in the market! If Faugheen is to be shorter than 5/4, what price do you make TNO JEZ AND HF?
On the day i fully expect to see Faugheen priced up at around the 2/1 mark. Poss seeing a 15/8 3 9/2 13/2 book. That right there is 90%, in a 8-9 runner field i would imagine that be about right. Can't see the books wanting to price up on a race where they make it filthy each way, a race where the front 4 in the betting will get bet on in equal measure to the chances they each have given its the Churdle and they each have their own fan base! | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
75% of this thread concentrates on Faugheen's jumping .... interesting after today! Roll on March 10th!
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Looking at Faugheen's evens price I wondered how the short priced favourties(below 5/2) fared in the past 20 years, and also the quality of the first 3 placed using racing post and timeform ratings:
1996 - Alderbrook LOST @ 10/11 - was the current champion, average TOP 3 RPR = 169, TOP 3 TF = 166 1997 - no short price fav, avg TOP 3 RPR = 163, TOP 3 TF = 160 1998 - no short price fav, avg TOP 3 RPR = 163, TOP 3 TF = 163 1999 - Istabraq WON @ 4/9 - was the current champion, avg TOP 3 RPR = 165, TOP 3 TF = 160 2000 - Istabraq WON @ 8/19 - dual champion, TOP 3 RPR = 165, TOP 3 TF = 160 2002 - Istabraq LOST @ 2/1 - TOP 3 RPR = 161, TOP 3 TF = 156 2003 - Rhinestone Cowboy LOST @ 5/2 - unbeaten in 4 starts over hurdles but only participated in low graded events winning by very small margins, TOP 3 RPR = 162, TOP 3 TF = 160 2004 - Rooster Booster LOST @ 11/8 - was the current champion, TOP 3 RPR = 165, TOP 3 TF = 160 2005 - no short price fav, TOP 3 RPR = 167, TOP 3 TF = 163 2006 - Brave Inca WON @ 7/4 - after the 2005 CH in which he came 3rd he then went on and beaten both the runner-up and the winner of the 2005 CH. TOP 3 RPR = 169, TOP 3 TF = 162 2007 - Detroit City LOST @ 6/4 - winner of previous year Triumph Hurdle, his record was showing 8 wins out of 9 over hurdles; Detroit City had beaten the 2004,2005 CH Hardy Eustace in the Bula Hurdle by 1 length while Hardy Eustace subsequently beat the 2006 CH Brave Inca by 3 lenths in the 2007 Irish CH. TOP 3 RPR = 164, TOP 3 TF = 158 2008 - Sizing Europe LOST @ 2/1 - in that season he beat(whilist receiving 6 pounds) 2007 CH runner-up Osana by 4 lengths, in the 2008 Irish CH he beat the former dual champion Hardy Eustace by 8 lengths. TOP 3 RPR = 163, TOP 3 TF = 159 2009 - Binocular LOST @ 6/4 - runner-up in the 2008 Supreme Nov Hurdle and unbeaten since then; last time out he beat the 2008 CH in the Bula Hurdle; TOP 3 RPR = 165, TOP 3 TF = 163 2010 - no short price fav, TOP 3 RPR = 167, TOP 3 TF = 162 2011 - no short price fav, TOP 3 RPR = 169, TOP 3 TF = 168 2012 - Hurricane Fly LOST @ 4/6 - was the current champion, TOP 3 RPR = 168, TOP 3 TF = 163 2013 - Hurricane Fly WON @ 13/8 - won the 2011 CH, unbeaten in 4 Irish G1s since the 2012 CH, TOP 3 RPR = 171, TOP 3 TF = 166 2014 - no short price fav, TOP 3 RPR = 173, TOP 3 TF = 169 In total 12 short money favourites in the last 20 years, 8 losers and 4 only winners. Out of the 8 losers, 4 of them were going into the race as current champions, the other 3 met and beat in the same season the current and/or former champions. Out of the 4 winners, 3 of them were former champions while the other decisively beat the current and runner-up form the previous CH. The top Racing Post ratings for past 20 years CH are:
The top Timeform ratings for past 20 years CH are:
Basically Faugheen is evens shot money and is against the 3 of the first 4 placed in 2014 CH which according to the most respected rating organizations is the best quality field in the last 20 years(the 2014 Champion Hurdle) Is Faugheen on an impossible mission ? Is he that good to defy the best field in the last 20 years ? Is he worthy of the evens shot ? Will he be bigger on the day ? Thoughts ? | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
I think he will be bigger on the day but not by much - I'd guess an SP of 11/8. I also think that he's not worthy of being an Evs shot given the calibre of opposition and his lack of experience at such a level, but I see him as the likeliest winner and wouldn't be surprised if he won it cosily. For me at least, he is a classic example of a horse that I would never back at the price, but whom I wouldn't want to take on too heavily as he does command huge respect.
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
last week on morning line Geoff Banks was adamant that the bookies are happy to take Faugheen on at these prices but also said he'll be likely to go odds-on at SP which sounds a bit contradictory..
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Tintin it probably says more about Geoff Banks than it does about the chances of Faugheen.
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
it also tells us plenty about racing post and timeform
a really interesting post though timtin | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Yes Gaz we have spent the last few years convincing ourselves that this season's champion hurdle was going to be better than the last. With all due respect to Timeform I am not convinced that 2014 was that good.
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
@Arklearkle you don't believe timeform, you don't believe racing post but you must believe the time. 2014 CH has set a new record on GOOD-SOFT ground with 3 seconds faster than Istabraq's 2000 CH ran on GOOD ground. It was that good.
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Do you think that was good to soft ground last year timtin?
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
I hope I've made it clear that I took the average of the performances of the first 3 placed just to point out the quality field Faugheen is up against.
For the individual top performances achieved in a Champion Hurdle in the last 20 years TF has 1st. 1995 ALderbrok(174) 2nd. 1998 Istabraq(172+), 3rd. 2011 Hurricane Fly(171+), 4th. 2014 Jezki(170) @gazovic here are the going stick figures(everything below 7 is considered on the soft side) 11-Mar-14 Chase & H: Good to Soft (Good in places) C&H: 6.9 11-Mar-14 Chase & H: Good to Soft (Good in places) Old Course: 6.9 12-Mar-14 C & H: Good (Good to Soft in places) C & H: 6.9 12-Mar-14 C & H: Good (Good to Soft in places) C & H: 7.5 13-Mar-14 C & H: Good (Good to Soft in places) 7 14-Mar-14 C & H: Good (Good to Soft in places) 7.3 The Champion Hurdle was ran on 11 March with the ground good to Soft. 3 seconds faster than 2000 Istabraq's Good ground 2nd fastest time. | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
The time looks very good compared to previous seasons because the new start for timing was moved forward last season.
Horses were in full stride by the time the clock started, where as normally the clock started as soon as the tape went up. Hence so many quick times were posted last season. | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
There is no way it was good to soft. My understanding was that Vautour also broke the course record in the first race that day. While Timeform was very good in days gone by I feel that they no longer have the same advantages they once held over everyone else. If the people working for TF are as good as some have us believe I dont believe they would be working for TF.
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
It was a warm day last year,proper good ground just about !
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
But timtin, did you think it was good to soft ground last year?
I once walked a course on the morning of racing with the clerk. the stick readings would have provided good to firm. 10.something mostly .... 11 in bits. 'I cant put firm in the description' they said to me 'The horse boxes will turn around on the motorway' | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
That was not good to soft ground last year!
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
It was closer to good to firm.
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Well, the "he smashed Josses Hill 22 lengths" brigade can now stick that in their pipe and smoke it as that "form" means diddley now
 | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
not really, i'd actually say the bumper is where josses hill performs best as he doesn't have to jump
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Rathgorman...this freak smashes everything in sight
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
@gazovic i fail to see the relevance your story has regarding a championship race in which the readings of the going sticks were 6.9 meaning Good to SOFT for the first day. Its a fact that the ground only gets quicker with each day of the meeting, of course if it doesn't rain.
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
timtin - have you considered the likelihood that the going stick wasn't administered correctly? There is simply no way on earth that it was good to soft last year. If it was, Hurricane Fly ran around 40 lengths faster than he ever has done and still couldn't place. Suspicious, no?
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
If we don't trust the data that an organization such as turftrax is putting up, then what will we trust? http://www.turftrax.co.uk/going_stick_archive.html
I'm not sure of your calculations reg. the Fly but it was an terrible pace set up in front. The point with the overall time is that it doesn't prove anything at all, but sometimes it just backs the form which says that the 2014 top 3 placed horses ran to best figures in the last 20 years and 2 of them will be present this year. If you also take that Hurricane Fly has the 3rd individual performance at a CH then we seriously must consider that Faugheen is up against mountains while he's priced at evens.. | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
timtin - you seem very confident that Faugheen is an awful price so wonder whether you are laying him for all you can?
I agree that he should be a bigger price, but I don't think it's too far out myself, and expect him to be very hard to beat. | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
he's my banker actually
I just want to know beforehand all the reasons why he can possibly get beat  | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Don't put yourself off!
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
No entered at the weekend, so straight to the Festival it appears.
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
Surprised the bookies haven't taken the chance to shorten Faugheen yet further after Blue Heron's win today
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
there was no need as the Christmas Hurdle placings were simply confirmed. Purple Bay is the one far off his true odds, he should be in the 20s not 50s.
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
I know there was no need - but I was surprised that they didn't. Have you backed Purple Bay Timtin?
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
yes I want to get out of the win bet, only need the place part which will still be hard but his chances are much better than all other outsiders. Arctic Fire is a joke @ 16/1 but there you go.. hopefully PB will get shorter on the day.
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
I quite like AF actually. Backed him eachway at big prices before pricewise nailed him. Think he's improving all the time, will have conditions to suit and will probably be ridden quietly. That said, I guess I wouldn't want to back him at 16/1
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
its a plane! .. its a rocket! ... no!! he's Nicholls banker Faugheen
... was shocked to hear that on ATR that from all Cheltenham runners his banker is The Machine! well not that surprised.. | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
I think he was trying to be funny tt - Chapman asked him 'what are you putting the mockers on?'
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
great observation from Steve Mellish on RUK preview http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/33477/champion-hurdle-2015-video-preview: "The sexy thing to say at the moment is that Faugheen hasn't beaten anything so far" referring to bloggers, columnists, etc. looking at this forum the sexy trend continues, apparently it makes you look shrewd when saying it
 It also makes Timeform, BHA and other handicappers look like complete fools when they say Faugheen has the best form this season  Jezki has the best chance because... well .... he won last year .... so all conditions will be met again to win again.... including a perfect ride from McCoy(or was it BG hmm nvm...) .... if a horse wins one year then surely he'll win it again next year when all previous conditions are met again which are: 1. Get well beat a couple of times in the winter so that everyone will HOPE Spring is your time to bounce, 2. Make big jumping mistakes when the pressure is applied so that everyone will say you're unlucky(oops this also applies to TNO in the Christmas hurdle 2 seasons ago so I'm now confused) TNO has best chance ... well... because he was runner up to MTOY 2 years ago on boxing day.. and we know MTOY is a complete all time monster who of course got beat over hurdles twice since meeting TNO on boxing day so that looks particulary STRONG form.. and TNO beat the TOP CLASS Vaniteux by 4 lengths this season when giving him 8 LBS WOOOW can he do that to such a fantastic horse like Vaniteux ??? don't think its allowed.... he was also unlucky last CH, surely if a horse is unlucky then the Karma returns the favour and will award him the CH next time.... he also gets the proverbial excuses which makes his form looks even more appealing: 1. He hates heavy ground so forget Haydock runs when he almost got beat by an 150 horse.. 2. he only makes jumping errors and jumps way of to the right in less 50% of his races so guaranteed he won't do anything of that sort in the CH because when running there in the past he didn't made any mistakes so he surely won't make them this time around it would be crazy to think such nonsense... well he's my selection very confident about TNO chances he should be evens and Faugheen who's form beating an 150-160 horses by '__' (fill in with how many digits Walsh wanted to ask him for) is sooo weak in comparison... .... Seriously now, financially I hope Faugheen wins but in a weird way I wish he loses so Mullins sends him chasing next season as he'll make a great GC horse... and also Mullins already talks about Nichols Canyon about being the next big hope for Champion hurdle (unlike Faugheen which wasn't even talked about until he won at P'town(after winning the Neptune) and even after that Mullins always downplayed him, I mean in almost every interview he talks trash about Faugheen and mentions Arctic Fire and Fly so at least Nichols Canyon(plus Douvan, plus others) gets Mullins respect without winning anything...) so he'll have plenty horses to fill that spot, he won't need Faugheen over hurdles anymore .. but yea look above those two TNO and Jezki fill your mind with great confidence  As for THE FLY respect he's one of the true greats of hurdles scene but don't think he has met a horse of Faugheen's calibre in his career. | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
but the fly meets faugheen every day,and surely when they are out together for a little trot and Annie is not about they have a race to see who is second best in the stable.
| ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
"It also makes Timeform, BHA and other handicappers look like complete fools when they say Faugheen has the best form this season"
The Fly had the best form going in to the last 4 CHs and he managed to only win 2 of them. Nothing Jezki did last year would have told you he would run the fastest CH ever, yet he did. It's all relevant and makes anyone backing Faugheen at these prices look like a mug. "Seriously now, financially I hope Faugheen wins but in a weird way I wish he loses so Mullins sends him chasing next season as he'll make a great GC horse..." Ha Ha Ha so you already have an "out" if he losses. Comical stuff. | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
yes it is comical, horses shouldn't be able to lose at the festival, they should all win, especially as they always replicate their best form. More explicitly, I hope Faugheen doesn't turns up with his best form(especially as he's not had a prep run for months) and loses so that Mullins can finally send him over fences.
People were complaining when Faugheen was 9/2 at the start of the season, they then complained when he was 9/4, now 5/4. Don't think though you'd have this price if Faugheen had beaten TNO in the Christmas Hurdle or Fly/Jezki on Irish CH, so anyone backing him at these prices knowing that Faugheen only needs to show this season's form(and maybe his last year P'town form) to win it could look like a value bet in hindsight, if he even improves(doubtful without a prep run) then he's sure to take it easily. | ||||||||||||||||
|
By:
bookies should start paying out now on this cert
 |