Cheltenham Festival
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Just placed my first outright ante-post for next March, Just A Par in the RSA at 25/1 with VC.
When Willie Mullins' Un Atout was declared as unlikely to run this season, and Pont Alexandre also out, I looked through the contenders a bit further. Horses like Smad Place and African Gold head the market and are as short at 14/1. That is quite bad value to my eyes, particularly Smad Place who is an exposed hurdler now, 14 runs, 3 wins, over a couple of seasons. He has a similar profile to Time For Rupert.
**** has had 3 starts under rules and the form of his maiden hurdle win at Punchestown has worked out well, the 3rd horse winning his next two starts is now rated 130 and was slammed 16 lengths. The second horse has yet to run but had previously Won a bumper and is highly regarded by Noel Meade. ****'s debut over here he was 1/2 length runner up to Many Clouds when he had only been in PFN's yard for less than two weeks. His next run was a creditable 2nd to At Fishers Cross at Aintree. PFN describes him as top chasing prospect who will stay 3 miles strongly. He is as low as 14/1 with other books.
When Willie Mullins' Un Atout was declared as unlikely to run this season, and Pont Alexandre also out, I looked through the contenders a bit further. Horses like Smad Place and African Gold head the market and are as short at 14/1. That is quite bad value to my eyes, particularly Smad Place who is an exposed hurdler now, 14 runs, 3 wins, over a couple of seasons. He has a similar profile to Time For Rupert.
**** has had 3 starts under rules and the form of his maiden hurdle win at Punchestown has worked out well, the 3rd horse winning his next two starts is now rated 130 and was slammed 16 lengths. The second horse has yet to run but had previously Won a bumper and is highly regarded by Noel Meade. ****'s debut over here he was 1/2 length runner up to Many Clouds when he had only been in PFN's yard for less than two weeks. His next run was a creditable 2nd to At Fishers Cross at Aintree. PFN describes him as top chasing prospect who will stay 3 miles strongly. He is as low as 14/1 with other books.
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the **** have blocked out J A P ... as in Just A Par.
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A word of caution too I should add. PFN's best novice chasers in the past couple of seasons have skipped the RSA, Silviniaco Conti & Rocky Creek, and gone to Aintree instead.
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A write up like that, and you haven't even mentioned Some Tikket
 Priced up at 33's with a couple of firms Sint!! |
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Joking apart, looks a good shout mate.
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Actually considered your one CCM for my TTF list. So many good horses to include. I take it you have backed yours for March? Looks just the profile you want in an RSA horse.
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He is not in the RSA market on here as far as I can see CCM .. maybe ask BF to add him..
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 sint knows |
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Yeah I considered it mate, but had no rush. Didnt want to tempt fate before he has even jumped a twig!
Ive a little bit on at 33's but was surprised he was that short tbh, even if the profile is bang on, as you say. Schools beautifully though  Hopefully be out first week of November. |
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Sonofvic won easily at Exeter today, always been well thought of and always going to make a chaser. Jumped very nicely from what I saw and despatched the decent Kentford Grey Lady with little fuss. Could be a likely RSA type.
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Just A Par has an entry at Chepstow for Saturday in a Novice Chase against some reasonable horses like Beeves and Arthurian Legend. Should be interesting.
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Followed Sonofvic over a cliff last season and was pleasantly surprised he started at 13/8 when I'd backed him at 11/10 today. Decent performance on debut, but will be surprised if he's up to the RSA. Hope he can fulfill his potential over fences though, always looked a chasing type as you say.
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Glossy, PFN also has Benvolio entered in the race who won his last two races over hurdles on Soft ground so we'll have to see if J A P runs as the trainer did say he will start out at one of the bigger tracks, so I assume he means Newbury or Cheltenham.
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Looks like it goes to Chepstow tomorrow.
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Yep, a good race with some useful yardsticks in there.
Wonderful Charm was impressive today. |
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Indeed sint. Looking forward to it tomorrow. My first trip to Chepstow. Interesting little card.
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Did you watch The Morning Line Sint?!
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No mate,what was said/happened?
I missed today's race as I was watching the Arsenal game but apparently he was no match for the winner. He did jump well though. PFN's has had several decent types beaten on their chase debuts around Chepstow before such as Beshabar and Silviniaco. But I don't want to be making excuses this early!  |
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Winner is no mug tbf and Lavelle stable in much better form than PN early on
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Get that impression too BJG. Expect he'll improve a good bit as he is quite lightly raced under rules but i'll try and watch it later.
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Another one for Lavelle
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Thank donkey aint gonna be winning any RSA, don't care if it improves it would have to improve by 3 stone! Another Nicholls hype job, he's had plenty over the last few years
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nice to see leighton parade get a few decent rides !
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Just back from Chepstow. Safe to say that Mr Nicholls did not look a happy man in the trainers area today.
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pjn seems to be going backwards at moment needs a big horse in his yard
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I won't be losing faith just yet. Emma Lavelle seems to have her runners fit and ready to go. As mentioned previously, PFN has had a few decent ones beaten at this time of year at Chepstow. Rocky Creek is another horse who got beaten on his Chase debut too. He'll need to make a big jump forwards on his next run.
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The only positive is that all of Nicholls' emptied quickly at around the same point today. There must be something up with the yard. Mr Nicholls may not have the ammunition of a few years ago but he still knows when a horse has the ability to do well in good company.
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Horse may not be as good as hoped, we'll have to see. What amazes is the amount of people writing off PFN. Not just on here but it's all over twitter too. Talk about short-termism!!!
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Just a Par is just like Ceasar Milan. Over paid the price for these 2 horses. They keep thinking they're going to unearth another Denman with P2p's from Ireland. Stable maybe poorly but J A P didn't jump too good and looked very slow
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I thought he jumped well, stayed on and heavily eased , didnt empty in my book. Just beaten by a better horse on the day. Dont forget Rev it up finished 2nd in this race last year but was beaten miles this year. Not a fan of J ap as anyone could had finished 2nd to AFC at aintree. Just think everyone expects too much of every PN horses given his history.
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That was not good at all,he will probably improve and would have to and by some amount!!
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look a moderate bunch at head of the betting in the rsa, favs by default.
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travelled and jumped the best, but blew up,probably short of RSA grade but can see it staying forever and therefore the 4 miler would be a big possible.
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Really? Looked like it did'nt stay to me. Not at that level anyway..
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Did PFN give any post-race comments?
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Sint,
Apparently he said that anyone who has backed him for the festival needs their head testing  Alternatively...I aint heard anything my friend. |
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I just watched the replay there. Wouldn't be suprised if PN says the horse had a slight issue. I wouldn't be suprised if he used the term 'wind op'.
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Entered at Exeter next week, as is Smad Place. Should tell us a lot more.
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Indeed,i think it will tell you if you have a bet or not mate.
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Yep, truth be told think my dough is gone, but we'll see. Wonderful Charm could be RSA or Jewson bound.
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