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Gow 16Hy HG2 21K 11-4 2/4 (16L Un De Sceaux 11-7) 10/1 Bryan Cooper 140
* * Pun 16Y HG1 39K 11-10 4/5 (7L Hurricane Fly 11-10) 14/1 Bryan Cooper 141 So,UDS beats Midnight Game 16l on the bridle giving him 3lb. HF beats Midnight Game 7l working pretty hard at levels. Now I know HF improves for his 1st run,Fair enough, but that IS a fair difference in distance. Rating for UDS has gone up to 156,which puts him 5 behind Our Conor and about 10 from MTOY and TNO. Given he has yet to break sweat, I think it fair to say that hes gonna advance his rating a fair bit more when he has to. Surely he has proved hes worthy of a place in the CH now. |
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Worthy yes but I can't see Mullins letting him steal the Fly's thunder
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Without wishing to get into another Mullins debate!! surely its not about that.
If hes a genuine chance,then he has to be in the race. They have different owners. |
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@buddeliea
UDS is a fast front-runner, and I'm not sure the distances back to Midnight Game can be taken literally, especially on heavy ground. Nor is it clear that UDS would find more if challenged. In short, his rating might flatter him. That said, he has done enough -- even in beating only 7 horses in 3 races -- to earn a place, if connections want him to run. The worry for backers (assuming UDS turns up) is that 3 weeks might not be enough to recover from this run -- so I suppose it depends whether you think he ran faster than necessary through a ploughed field, or enjoyed an easy, soft lead. |
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My worry is him turning up mate.He does,what happens on the day,happens.
As for yesterday, I don't see it taking much out of him to be honest,he seems to run through that ground fairly effortlessly. But yes, its possible he will struggle to recover, with just over 3 weeks to go. Hes not had 1 hard race this season by my eyes,his opposition in the CH have. Does his rating flatter him,will he find more?? Cannot answer with evidence, have to wait and see for a horse that's good enough to reveal that. Hopefully that will come in the Churdle. Like you say though, hes done enough to earn a place. He also could be a better horse on decent ground,he only ran once on good/soft,on the flat, which he won easily. |
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Ruby gave UDS a little squeeze after the last yesterday and he fairly quickened up putting another 8 to 10 lengths between himself and the second, I'm not saying it's champion material but it shows he is more than just an out an out galloper.
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This UDS has some engine and I would say that if he doesn't run in the Champ then Mullins is scared of him beating the Fly. I would also say it is unlikely he will turn up for this reason as next year Mullibs must be assuming the Fly will be too old and he knows UDS can step up and take his place.
Certainly if I was UDS owner id be saying "listen I pay the fees and I want him in the champion hurdle.next month." |
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I agree his price compared to the fly is an insult. It has been all season long.
I don't agree Carlisle regarding his hurdling tho. He only seems to struggle when the pace is slow. He wings the hurdles when the pace quickens. Just look at his hurdling over the last couple in each of his races. He is a good hurdler. |
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I think all along there's been no chance of him running in the Champion Hurdle to be honest unless Fly got injured. With Annie Power there's been probably a maximum chance of 1% as it's always been world hurdle for her unless something goes wrong with Quevega. If both had the slightest chance of goin on Tuesday there's no way they'd be double odds on here.
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It appears a poor price now,i am hoping he goes out a bit on the day,you would expect the fly to be backed into fav
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I fear you may be right Bally, I really hope you're not.
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ATR website - Connections of leading Stan James Champion Hurdle hope Our Conor are hoping a strong pace will help him turn the tables on reigning champion Hurricane Fly.
The Dessie Hughes-trained five-year-old was the most impressive winner of the Triumph Hurdle for many a year last season and part of the reason he looked so good was the strong pace throughout, according to his new owner this season, Barry Connell. Hughes won two Champion Hurdles with Hardy Eustace, and Our Conor is expected to peak on the second Tuesday in March. Having been beaten by Hurricane Fly in both of his outings this season, Connell feels the way the races have been run have been against his star and is eagerly looking forward to Cheltenham, having closed the gap from nearly six lengths to just over one in less than a month. "He looks the one horse who is capable of improving again," said Connell. "It turned into a sprint in the Irish Champion and that didn't really suit him. "It's all systems go now, we're very happy with him and he couldn't be with a better man in Dessie. "Last season he improved and improved with every run and that is proving to be the case again, he was much closer to Hurricane Fly second time. "What we need is a true-run race and, being a Champion Hurdle, 99 times out of 100 you get that." ..... and if Willie doesn't run UDS, you have got a 1 in 100 chance of getting a decent pace. It really makes you wonder about these owners with millions to spare. The world and and his wife knows there may be little pace in the Champion - even if UDS runs, he will probably go a pace to suit himself, not a flat out gallop. Together with his selection of a 10lb claimer as a retained jock.... maybe Barry needs a new racing manager |
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The worry for backers (assuming UDS turns up) is that 3 weeks might not be enough to recover from this run -- so I suppose it depends whether you think he ran faster than necessary through a ploughed field, or enjoyed an easy, soft lead.
the time of the race suggests he cantered round for the first 8 or 9f. He was going so slow past the stands first time round, looked like the horse thought they had finished and tried to pull himself up and back to the stables. |
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If UDS runs it's advantage Hurricane Fly imo. Ruby knows the horse so well he'll know the gallop he will set and can position Fly where he wants to.
tbf to Ruby he said he gave Fly two bad rides at the festival the past 2 years. Over confident in 2012 and was too far back. Then conscious not to let the same thing happen again last year he didn't let them go on when they were going too fast in the middle part of the race. Had he let Fly come tanking down the hill he would've won by further. So to have the inside knowledge of the pacemaker in the race, to essentially know how the race will be run before he even gets on the horse is a huge advantage. What's also been overlooked is that Thousand Stars is also left in, he is a good enough horse to set a strong gallop himself until coming to the 2nd last at the least. A plan could be laid by Mullins and crew that people are not thinking about. |
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UDS unlikely runner..Twitter lighting up.
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Seen that on Twitter - “@IrishRacing365: Willie Mullins says he's not sure if running in Champion Hurdle is what Un De Sceaux "needs at this time in his career."
Have to again question Mullins transparency with the public here - I've not backed anything in the race by the way - but surely he knew a long time ago if running UDS in the race was a good thing or a bad thing for the horse's career. Also think the excuse is nonsense anyway - clearly does not want to take on Hurricane Fly. Nothing to do with his "career" - it's a horse race - how will losing a race affect his career. |
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I don't know why anyone thinks a strong pace would suit HF. He beat the Irish horses of a slow pace, and TNO would prefer a strong pace as he stays well. MTOY may not get his prefered ground, and he would prefer a strong pace also. Running UDS could be counter productive, unless he wins.
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Desperately disappointing, would have bought an exciting unknown dimension to the race. Have to say I find it difficult to credit that the Red Mills 'took a lot' out of him. Think it is a little premature statement as something could go wrong for HF at a late stage and Willie would be forced to run Annie or backtrack on UDS decision.
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Who makes the running now??Jezki may be prominent but would they sacrifice his chances(to an extent unless soft lead) for MTOY and let him make the running?
I thought Twister was going to run a pacemaker? |
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Looks like a small field.
Confirmed runners: Hurricane Fly, Jezki, Our Conor, My Tent or Yours, The New One & Melodic Rendezvous. Probables: None Possibles: Ptit Zig, Grumeti, Thousand Stars Unlikely: Annie Power, Un De Sceaux Really relying on one of the possibles to make the pace. |
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Have to again question Mullins transparency with the public here - I've not backed anything in the race by the way - but surely he knew a long time ago if running UDS in the race was a good thing or a bad thing for the horse's career.
To be fair to Mullins, hasn't this been his position all along? That the horse was a most unlikely Champion Hurdle runner. Look at UDS's campaign and tell me the plan was not always the Punchestown festival in April. This season he has had three races: two 3-runner affairs and 4 runners yesterday, which was also his first step into Graded company. He beat those seven rivals at 1/16, 1/12 and 1/14, so clearly has faced no meaningful opposition. All of his races bar one have been on right-handed courses (like Punchestown). |
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Can't say I'm surprised UDS isn't running, never got the vibe at all he was going to run really from Mullins. Especially if Fly was running UDS would have a new rider in the Champion as Ruby has always ridden him.
It's all now in the hands of Willie Mullins. If he wants a pace maker he can run Thousand Stars, if he doesn't want one he won't run him. If I were Mullins I'd run Thousand Stars as you can plan what pace to set and when to drop the pace etc.. |
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I imagine Thousand Stars will probably run and make the pace. This will give the Mullins camp control of the pace. As CV has said, they can then make it as fast or slow as they like, probably at a steady pace. If I was Frank Berry or McManus, I'd be coming up with a gameplay for the race. I'd say the best option is to front run with Jezki.
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I got the impression listening to Tony Mc coy on the Sunday Forum that Jezki will run front the front in the ch
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I agree Andy. I hope so at least.
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Yeah only 2 camps can control this race. JP & Mullins.
I think Thousand Stars will run and set a steady pace. That would inconvenience a few rivals and not Fly as he's the best turn of foot in the race. |
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Surely they could have envisaged this situation developing and tried to make the running in the Irish champion (as a reference point) rather than trying to beat the Fly for a turn of pace. They wouldn't want to give Geraghty much rope from the front on a stayer.
I'd say Mullins never had an any intention of running Annie/UDS but it certainly fooled Twiston Davies who said after the Christmas hurdle,we'll run a pacemaker. |
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willie mullins is ruining the champion hurdle and all the anti post betting just to make it asier for hurricane fly and walsh simple as
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would just gently point out that there are over three weeks to go and UDS still holds an entry
would not wish ill will on any horse least of all one as brilliant as Hurricane Fly with a chance to cement his legacy but things can and do go wrong. ...experience tells me there will be at least one bombshell between now and the Festival notwithstanding what happens with Sprinter Sacre never rule anything in or out. |
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Bit harsh on Mullins tbh, the horse has won 3 races on soft ground this season at odds of 1/16, 1/12 & 1/14 all in small field races. To go chuck him into a Champion Hurdle and throw a new jockey on his back is a big ask for a horse who's only just run in his first Grade 2 yesterday. There is a fair case to be made in aiming him at the Champion Next year when he can contest some better races in his prep.
I am sure there is a bit of favouring Hurricane Fly in the decision too, but it's not simply all about Fly I don't think. |
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It's cobblers. UDS ran 22 Dec, 12 Jan and 15 Feb. Near 4 week gap should be sufficient to recover as the gaps similar to the gaps between previous races. I'm on OC so no financial interest.
Forty |
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It's clearly no advantage for Hurricane Fly if Un De Sceaux runs. Rock On Ruby had him in real trouble last year but couldn't sustain the pace. Very good chance this younger model would make a much better fist of it. Hurricane Fly would be perfectly happy if they went an an absolute dawdle. All this has been about protecting Hurricane Fly.
The owner must be a complete fool to allow himself to be dictated to by the trainer. Does he really think he has a better chance of winning the Champion with a 7yo than a 6yo? |
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I rarely jump to conclusions these days in this game but I think this is spot on ^
If he was trained by anyone else I'm 90% sure he'd be running. Embarrassing decision if he doesn't. |
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B365 were so impressed with MTOY's stroll on the sand that they'd cut him a whole point for the Champion Hurdle. Pretty funny really.
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Costin me nothin financially but this has taken away from the race massively for me - may not av been good enough but he was a complete unknown who could still be anything! Was looking forward to him blazin off in front and seeing but knew from weeks back they would chicken out
The reason he has nt had a proper CH prep is because they were once more shittin themselves to take on HF incase they beat him(same reason they sent AP on her travels) - run him in the irish champion and see where u are, if hes beat and nt good enough fair enough but instead they bottled it He threw away a Grade 1 at xmas favouring CF over FY instead of running both As for the reason he is missin it, on the race yest "It took a fair bit out of him" If he aint goin fair enough but usin a hard race yest as an excuse is absolutely moronic, horse didnt come out of 1st gear and cant imagine there is anyone that thinks otherwise. He would do more in a canter at home Would nt be stayin at home if it was owned by Ricci or Giggi, shame its one of the lesser owners If HF gets beat and 1 or 2 that race handy win or go close, they will feel very silly! And god forbid if UDS gets injured and has missed his chance etc - these horses dont stay right forever and av to strike while the iron is hot Shame to see horses suffering as the trainer doesnt want to take on one of his own favourites. Any other trainer and UDS runs no doubt about it |
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I don't know about about Jezkis chances, but for tent's sake thy need to be sending jezki off in front and telling the jock to make it a blistering pace..a blistering pace....they need to sap the same amount of energy out of the rest of the field that tent will be burning through his pulling.
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the fly stays 2 and a half,so it doesnt matter how fast they go,ive backed jezki and do hope its more prominent though !
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ACStafford
16 Feb 14 17:00 Joined: 07 Jul 04 | Topic/replies: 511 | Blogger: ACStafford's blog B365 were so impressed with MTOY's stroll on the sand that they'd cut him a whole point for the Champion Hurdle. Pretty funny really. yes, embarrassing - I bet NJH loved it though, will be getting the BHA to put on similar meetings every weekend in future years and running all his Festival contenders in them post Christmas. |
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cufcno1 • February 16, 2014 5:08 PM GMT
the fly stays 2 and a half,so it doesnt matter how fast they go,ive backed jezki and do hope its more prominent though ! It matters how fast they go if the FLY is taken out of his comfort zone like last year but will they come back to him this time. Mullins is trying to set it up as a sprint finish and will try to let thousand stars set a false pace. |
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just dont think it matters to the fly how they run !
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