Cheltenham Festival
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*OVERTURN* *ARKLE*
*OVERTURN* *ARKLE*
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If it's a 2 horse race, just gross up the proportion of the book that the 2 horses account for now, soSimonsig now is Evs or 50% and Overturn is 5/1 or 17%, combined 67%.
In a 2 horse race each account for 1.5 x their current book proportion,ie Simonsig would be 75% or 1/3 and Overturn would be 25% or 3/1, so (without fiddling the numbers) it comes out at bang on the suggested price of 1/3. |
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Musselborough this weekend for Overturn
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Wonder if they will ask a bit more from Overturn today,think they may have been holding him back a bit so far.
All about March of course,but we could well see a bit more of what i feel hes capable of. |
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Course should suit him well as a front runner - very sharp.
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I think Tetlami might make a few Overturn backers a bit nervous
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Really?
Looks in a different league from what ive seen of them both thus far. If Overturn performs as he has been,its imo a no contest. |
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if the race goes as expected Overturn will lead at his own pace with the others either tracking or unable to keep up and he will just kick clear off what for him will be steady ish fractions
as long as he jumps fluently he has little to fear really |
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Not really Bud, but Tetlami has a bit of talent. I just wanted to make Overturn backers a little bit more nervous. Anything can happen!
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Ladies and Gents. I think we may have a race in the Arkle!
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You have to be impressed with todays performance, if he turns up in his usual form, as mccain says, simonsig will know he's had a race alright.
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Lets not get carried away with that he was 1-5 one left at the start one 100-1 rag and one that doesnt jump.
What we did see was a good horse confirm he's retain all ablity at the age of 9 (old for a novice chaser) who jumps well but tetlami is no simonsig. |
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tetlami jumped like he had concrete boots on. cant wait to next Sat to see Simonsig smash them up. GAME ON!!!
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robbo,
It doesn't matter whatsoever what the others were like or did, in these trial races you are looking for the visual impression as much as strict form lines...visually the horse was right on the button, galloped strongly the whole way, attacked every fence at pace and jumped very very well, that's all I'm interested in ...whether one refused to race or tetlami didn't like the track doesn't interest me tbh. |
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duffy
Im not knocking todays performance,very impressive my point is it showed nothing that you wouldnt expect a 1-5 shot do |
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I realize what you're saying but I think that you could get performances far inferior and yet could still be satisfactory, even for a 1/5 shot, I kind of think that this performance went over and above what we could have hoped for even allowing for his SP.
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He loves it...I love him...
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get a room!
 lol. |
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That will do nicely,and definitely ridden a tad more agressive which i wanted to see.
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Spot on Duffy, who he lines up against at 1-5 is irrelevant, it the way he does it and the visual impression he makes
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Especially when we are talking about a horse thats we already know is a horse of quality.
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Did you not think he was edging left at his fences today? Though if he is out in front, it might not matter.
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Never noticed that,and no mention of it in the race analysis afterwards.
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He did a touch, but that wont hurt him at Chelts
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i'm a huge Simonsig fan but to be honest he jumped a bit to the left at 3 fences down the back at Kempton. both will be ok at Cheltenham
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