Cheltenham Festival
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*OVERTURN* *ARKLE*
*OVERTURN* *ARKLE*
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Replies: 143
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nr again.
No entries as well. |
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Pity he won at Sandown.....McCain could have put him away and trained him for the race as a 10yo..........
 ......maybe he's forgotten he won, it's such a long time ago! |
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Give him a break ffs...he's prepping him for a veterans chase at newbury in 2015 ffs....playing the lllooonnnggg game is our donald.
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Donny next Wednesday?
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There's a couple of henderson horses in there, that should be enough to frighten him off for another fortnight at least
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well the doncaster race is 2m 3f,so i have taken odds on here for the jewson,just in case a change of mind is on the cards.
will certainly stay ok,given his flat and hurdling form. |
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Might be a good move budd but assuming no pre Cheltenham mishaps for Simonsig and that he lines up on the day for the Arkle, I can see the Jewson being a very competitive heat.
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Agree ff. Have backed CC for the Arkle and whilst its most likely he'll now go for the Jewson, wouldn't want him in that race yet. Put simply if they point Dynaste that way, he'll beat everything.
Donny 19F is nowhere near Cheltenham 21F - it would be a definite swerve of the favourite if they did that. |
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Dynaste is a good horse ok,but hes no certainty to beat a likely Jewson field imo.
Yeh,i think it wise to have a cover bet for the Jewson. I really liked the way Overturn jumped Sandown and hes the sort that could get all sorts in trouble behind him in any race if he jumps like that.Basically i want him on my side. He stayed over 2m on the flat and 2 and a half over hurdles so i have no qualms about the distance. Its not easy trying to 2nd guess trainers,and at around 70 on here its worth a go. He wont be 70 if he turns up in the Jewson. |
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Of course he's not budd. But unless anything was a silly price I wouldn't back against him. Obviously Dynaste could very well go for RSA anyway.
Jewson is not an AP race for me at this stage. |
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Confirmed for tomorrow - looks like it should be a nice schooling session
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Will be good to see him back on the track. Donny is a very fair test but having jumped round Sandown well, I can't imagine he will encounter any problems with the fences here.
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Bookies will still probably clip him in a point or two tomorrow, even if it is a schooling session.
Might back him now before his price contracts. |
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Decent enough I thought. Took the 7's available before the off for the Arkle. Don't get me wrong, Simonsig could be anything but based on their hurling records I think 7/1 definitely represented some value about the McCain horse.
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I like ARVIKA LIGEONNIERE more then Overturn am I the only one?
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If you have not bet in this race already you should be better in the w/o market when it opens imo. Hard to see anything beating Simonsig bar an accident. The others just dont have the latent ability comparatively. We're all fighting for scraps.
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The same bookies that are currently cutting the price of Overturn are also cutting Simonsig. They should be ashamed of themselves.
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baNjackst I was going to say the same thing, surely it can't be justified!
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I thought he jumped OK. No improvement on Sandown and he was probably a bit ring rusty early. Would like to see the time of the race compared with other chases this afternoon. Bare interpretation of the form leaves this performance some way behind Simonsig's demoltion of Hinterland at Kempton - won 25 lengths at level weights against a 142 rated chaser, whilst Simonsig gave a 148 rated horse 11lbs and beat him 35 lengths, either just as easily, or more easily.
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Personally think Oscars Well is worth trading on, he will imo reverse the form with AL in a few weeks by a better judged ride. His price will then contract for the Arkle with a great trade to cover your stake just incase jessie decides to miss Cheltenham.
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i would have loved to have seen Simonsig run against Overturn today. he would have blown him out of the water! just saying!
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11.5 seconds quicker than the handicap chase over the same distance won by a horse rated 113 carrying the same weight.
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Well pleased with that,jumped fine,at times clever at times very impressive.Loads left in the tank.
Really Looking forward to the Arkle,if they all get there should be a treat.Anyone who thinks this one will be walked over best think again. Sint,you listening?? |
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Personally think Oscars Well is worth trading on, he will imo reverse the form with AL in a few weeks by a better judged ride. His price will then contract for the Arkle with a great trade to cover your stake just incase jessie decides to miss Cheltenham.
Harrington has said he will go for the Dr PJ Moriarty hasn't she and then either the Jewson or Powers Gold Cup |
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It's what she first said but I think it's well worth having another go at AL, OW closed a considerable gap last time and was always going to struggle to go past AL in that ground. If they get better ground and stay handy think he'd have the beating of AL.
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I'd fancy Oscar Wells to reverse form with Arvika Legionairre in the Arkle too if both where to run, especially if AL jumps everything out to the right as he did the last day at Leopardstown
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Agreed Bud, pleased with that. I'm on Overturn at decent prices, not sure he'll be quite good enough to trouble Simonsig..happy in the knowledge that the horse will try its heart out though. Run for your money for sure.
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Overturn is a fine horse but if he turns up in this race Simonsig will take all the beating, about the only horse ive seen who 'could' get SS off the bridle.
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Why do you think Simon is so much better than Overturn?
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Jumps and travels like a proper horse, overturn reminds me too much of peddlers cross, similar profile (although did win flat races). Only time he got beat travelled like the best horse but got done by a race fit rival.
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I think Overturn has proved countless times hes a proper horse!!
He jumps and travels well also. Only March will tell us whose better. |
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very true
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Reckon it will be a cracker Robbo,certainly hope so!!
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I don't think there's a lot between them strictly on chase form. I suspect there is a lot of difference between them in terms of potential.
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buddeliea
Date Joined: 19 Mar 04 Add contact | Send message 09 Jan 13 19:14 Joined: 19 Mar 04 | Topic/replies: 7,682 | Blogger: buddeliea's blog Why do you think Simon is so much better than Overturn? ^ this - Overturn was fine today - 2m 3f on sticky ground, jumped adequately/flawlessly if not spectacularly - Simonsig (frankly) priced up on visual impression, potential and comparisons to his stable mate, - Overturn 2nd in Champion Hurdle, enough flat speed to win the Chester Cup and Goodwood Cup and we know he can jump - yet Overturn is seven times the price of Simonsig. Now, Simonsig may well prove to be the second coming of Pegasus - or Sprinter Sacre and I would not be surprised if he blows them away in the Arkle but the value is with Overturn surely. |
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festivalfanatic
09 Jan 13 19:50 Joined: 20 Feb 11 | Topic/replies: 824 | Blogger: festivalfanatic's blog I don't think there's a lot between them strictly on chase form. I suspect there is a lot of difference between them in terms of potential. that's a reasonable opinion and there are sometimes grounds for backing a horse on the basis of what it might achieve but not at evens/odds on for a race over fences two months away where they'll go like the clappers in the opposite direction to his two chase victories so far which were over a grand total of eight opponents. Paddy Power went evens Sprinter Sacre on the morning of the Arkle last year. |
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Agree entirely RH though his demolition of Hinterland at Kempton in a relatively fast time is very strong novice chase form and at least as good as anything Overturn has achieved over fences.
They have to get there fit and well, which in itself can be a challenge. I wouldn't back Simonsig at evens but I wouldn't want to be laying him either as he looks the likeliest winner of the race to me. |
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Reckon the thing to do is enjoy the build up and the excitement created by the prospect of these 2 jumping away in the Arkle.
Yeh,i'm on Overturn,but i recognise Simonsig as possibly a superstar in the making. Whatver the result may be in the end,i really think potentially we have a classic race to look forward to,and should post accordingly. Certainly nothing to be gained in crabbing either horse imo. |
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Simonsig is definitely the most likely winner but this is reflected in the price. Overturn can be backed at seven times the price, is one of the toughest horses in training and was placed in last years Champion Hurdle.
This year's race looks similar to last year's race and looks like it may cut up badly. Would you rather back Simonsig to win at Evens or Overturn to be placed at 7/4? This assumes there is enough liquidity to lay the win part on here. |
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Aint read the comments above from today but here is my take on the Arkle from now.
Simonsig at evs is stand out and have started to really back him big time. He will make or break my festival! (I no that thread i started seems such a long time ago now haha  ) I also think he could so easily start 3s on with no more than 5 or 6 runners tbh! So am also going to take top price about Overturn e/way with 3 places tomorrow morning! These two are going to make up my bets for this race, right up until the time comes where i either bookies realize there will be not many runners and change place terms or one is no longer going to run  ! |