Cheltenham Festival
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*OVERTURN* *ARKLE*
*OVERTURN* *ARKLE*
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Dont foret sea,simonsig just might run in what looks a poor RSA this horse was winnng over 2m5 last year as a novice hurdler.I think hes a star and totally agree with the view he could well go off 3s on but only if he runs!!!.Im being told on another thread 7/4 a place on a horse with one festival tatget is bad value and im only backing that to place!!!!! Evens is not great value on any horse 9 weeks before the race to say it will make or break your festival...But i hope you get a result with this star horse.
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robbo
Where is the quote from connections that he might run in the RSA? There was enough fuss on here last year when they decided to go for the Neptune rather than the Supreme. The only other potential target I heard mentioned before he started his chase career was the Champion Hurdle. |
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Not a quote from connections but he's in the betting for the race so therefore must still be entered??
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If he runs in RSA,i will eat my hat and everyone elses!!
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robbo the only race at Cheltenhma with any entries at this stage is the Gold Cup - bookies put up prices to help offset ay liabilities on other races and its free money for them. Simonsig might get a Jewson entry but actually think the only entry he'll get will be the Arkle one
I'll help you with the hats budd  |
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cheers mate,but i think we are safe.
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On first impressions as the race was unfolding yesterday was one of slight disappointment, he was getting in close to a few and wasn't really that fluent, but toward the end he was asked to meet a couple on a good stride and really nailed them. Watching it again though and mccain half eluded to it, it was over the extra distance and early on he didn't go mad on him on sticky ground just erring on the side of caution....he is a horse that unless he's being allowed to stride on at a really good clip isn't going to look as impressive, when he is allowed to kick on he can see a stride and really attack his fences, toward the end we saw that again, so everything is on track.
I think simonsig should be fav. but the disparity between them is too big, overturn will have to really go fast and gain ground at his fences to force simonsig into a couple of those errors he made over hurdles. |
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Roo
Dont think your right about the entries bit but hey, if you read my post im saying i wouldnt want evens making or breaking my festival 9 weeks before time. If sea is on at better prices im with him all the way as i think Simonsig is a cert!!! |
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robbo - http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/big_races.sd
Don't take any notice of the unofficial ones -there's no way there will be as few entries as that. The Gold Cup was like that a few days ago with 19 runners I think and ended up with 40. You cannot have additional entries to initial ones unless there's a premium entry |
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I stand corrected.
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No worries and I completely agree with regards the sentiments of your original post
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Lads, you should all know me by now. I am a small stakes punter, in fact, i am at the moment taking sly bet up on their offer of a fiver a week and having it right off on this one placing doubles with the free fiver on horses running that day with simonsig at 10/11!
The first bet i will be placing on this race (Arkle) will be an each way punt on Overturn at hopefully laddies offer of 7/1. Although they are 1/5th the odds, i do see this race with only 5 or 6 runners max and therefore simonsig being a 3s on poke on the day. These will be my only 2 bets on the race, if simonsig wins it gives me a decent amount of ammo to go to war with during this great week in March, free dosh courtesy of sly bet as well as a couple maybe £20-25 win bets at evs before his price starts to tumble. This is a massive bet for me, looking at poss £12-50 - £20 each way Overturn at 7s with 3 places. I am that confident this race will be small field! |
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How will simonsig be 3's on? provided overturns presence alone will stop that let alone anything else!
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If Simonsig runs in the RSA, I'll show my arse, so from everyone's point of view, you'd best hope he runs in the Arkle!!
Arkle for me is a two horse race for me now. As far as I'm concern AL can turn up, or he can't, but there is no way he'll have the speed to go with these two. He'll stay on powerfully up the hill, but he'll be well too far back by then. I don't normally make strong judgements about a race this far in advance, but I've tried really hard to look for something other than the big two, and they're simply not there. |
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heard simonsig might run in the 4 miler, is this true?
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No brooksie, but he'll just run the Arkle circuit twice before the others finish
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3's on??
Maybe if Overturn and AL dont run. otherwise,nowhere near. |
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duffy
10 Jan 13 16:51 Joined: 28 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 7,906 | Blogger: duffy's blog How will simonsig be 3's on? provided overturns presence alone will stop that let alone anything else! yep, that and the fact it's second race on Day One and bookies will be touting for business. Sprinter Sacre SP was 8/11 last year and in the morning on the day of the race he was available at evens with Paddy Power.That was a 6 runner race. It's not inconceivable that Simonsig price on the day will be very similar to the price now - a far more likely scenario than him being 3s on (unless the race falls apart completely of course and it's a match with Oscars Well or something). |
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That's right, the fact that there may be umpteen horses being priced up at the moment, for all intents and purposes there are only a half dozen that are really in the market, much the same as it will be on the day, so the current prices are a pretty good reflection of what we'll see.
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I'm with you Polly, can't wait to see Overturn blast off in front and make Simonsig do an Al Ferof and bank one.
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Can't see me having a bet in the race but Overturn looked anything but a natural over fences to me while Simonsig appears just the opposite. Don't want to take the odds on but there'll be other opportunities to take on favourites and I'd swerve this one.
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Must have watched a different horse to me then!!
Taken to fences very well imo,and it wont be his jumping that will get him beat. Simonsig being a better horse would. |
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I think Overturn loves fences seems to be enjoying himself to me,Simonsig leaves his back legs in the fence like Long Run but he is class,my money is already down on Overturn and I am happy with what I have seen.
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Or may have interpreted what I saw in my own way, which is what the game is all about.
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Fair enough,like to know what was not natural to you though.
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Fair enough,like to know what was not natural to you though.
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When he had company early in the race he didn't seem comfortable but admittedly got better in the straight when he'd shrugged off his rival as you'd expect. To be honest he's been almost a top class flat stayer, almost a top class hurdler and could be very good over fences but most don't make it in all 3 and he is flat bred. I guess you could say he was a top class hurdler, second in a Champion and would possibly have beaten Oscar Whisky in receipt of about 8lbs at Ascot.
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Well for me the main thing is he can jump a fence and has the speed needed for the Arkle.
His flat and hurdle form is there for all to see,and hes a horse we all know very well. Simonsig could literally be anything,may prove to be different class. At this stage i'm more than happy to take the short priced fav on,with what i consider a horse thats overpriced in comparism,and from what ive seen of both,i think its a close call between them. |
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Think he is very top class, Booster his form stacks up pretty well me thinks, second in a CH makes him that. Unbeaten in 2 crappy jump races sill has a bit to prove in that game but he is no doubt going to prove just as good. He wont beat Simonsig though
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I think you mean may not beat,Robbo
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Ok may not, but anything within 5 lengths of Simonsig is a top class horse, not many have been so far!!!!
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I certainly do not want to go down the road of knocking Simonsig,theres nothing to knock anyway.
Everything hes done so far, except Sandown,has been very impressive. I will say though that in the Arkle he will be facing a much better horse than hes faced thus far. |
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This all has deja vu about it. Delete 'leaves his back legs in the fence', insert 'won't get up the hill'. Remind you of anything?
I favour Simonsig because he is a younger horse who has raced under rules only 8 times and should have a lot more scope for improvement than Overturn. Scope doesn't win the race though and I was a lot more confident that the monster would win last year's Arkle simply because of his fencing, which was/is in a league apart. |
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Simonsig is a very good horse and if you are on at a nice price good luck to you,the odds now 4/5 to 6/1 overturn, I think he will give him a race and if I was you festive I would have a saver because overturn really seems to be enjoying himself.
This is the fun of the festival different opinions,lets just make the bookies pay. |
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Maybe its time to put this one to bed odds on is a bad price any horse 8 weeks ahead of time. It will only shortern now if overturn doesnt run which make this whole thread meaningless as it state overturn 'arkle'
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No chance Simonsig will be 3's on, the Supreme is very open this year so the Arkle will be the first chance for the bookies to get stuck into a short priced favourite
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No? Not even if there is only 3 runners with any hope of winning
 This race may well have 6 or more runners just due to the fact prize money is down to 6th, but can't see no more than 3 with a winning chance and with simonsig currently trading at evs, can't have him being bigger than 4/6 in the lead up when all books go nrnb! 3s on is very likely to happen in my opinion but each to their own!My tissue probably simonsig 2/5 overturn 9/2 or 4/1 Arvika (may not run but if something else does of similar ability, your captain conans or oscars well) 11/2 - 13/2 33/1 bar with 7 or less runners |
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Just to be clear, if the race had only simonsig and overturn full stop, 2 horse race....simonsig would still not be 1/3...as it stands right now.
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the race is almost a 2 horse race already and he is evens, AL and OW are not the difference between evens and 1/3.
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Some people just can't be convinced can they till the day and they see it for themselves. The only reason simonsig is evs now and overturn is 5s, is cos the books still expect there to be more than 8 runners, therefore they are offering 3 places still. Some at 1/5 some at 1/4 but thats besides the point. And why shouldn't they? After all, the race conditions as a grade 1 pays down to 6th place! Finishing 6th pays more than winning a poxy novice/handicap chase round some rainy Monday afternoon track in their own grades. Your right, it is a 2 horse race, but this is the only reason why Simonsigs price is still as big and if more than 8 runners, will remain inflated but i cannot see there being 8 or more runners, therefore his price will tumble as they will then be able to offer 5s overturn quite easily with there only being 2 places on the day of race market.
And if Overturn is 5s, what price does that make Simonsig in a 2 horse race, paying only 2 places |