Cheltenham Festival
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Sprinter Sacre v Sanctuaire
Sprinter Sacre v Sanctuaire
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Will look forward to seeing this race
As it stands, on what they did last season, I have Sprinter Sacre 15lbs ahead of Sanctuaire so I would have to favour SS however both are lightly raced and either could improve or regress significantly SS numbers for me are the best since Moscow Flyer and Kauto Star were novices/starting out as second season chasers so I m hopeful he will progress again - I have him on 175 and he has not broken sweat to get that Tactics will be interesting as Sanctuaire wants to front run but so far nothing has really been able to go fast enough to lead SS for long and it's anyones guess what Sanctuaire will do if taken on can't wait |
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WALOFB. . ..
 'Anyones guess what Sanctuaire will do if taken on.' Jesus wept you have a lot to learn about race reading Judorick. Obviously he wont be taken on for the lead because if he was then Splinter would be going way to fast and if you think Nicky Henderson is going to let Barry Gereghty bottom SS for the remainder of the season on his first run of the season then, well then you are in the wrong game.The way i see it Ruby will make it at a real good clip and try and get a breather in turning out of the backstraight before kicking on heading to the Pond fence. Sanctuaire jumping is going to have to be better than ever to get Splinter in trouble and i personally cant see it. Sacre should brush Sanctuaire and Sizing aside pretty easily to win by three and a half snug lenghts. |
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we shall see and stfu coont, I won't be taking lessons from unknown mugs like you so fack off
hth |
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If SE turns up in the same form as last season, I very much doubt he'll be brushed aside easily - suggest anybody who thinks that goes and watches a re-run of last season's Tingle Creek - I'd imagine they'd send SE on three or four out and if he jumps like he did last year, they might get Sprinter at it.
SE's jumping in last years's Tingle Creek was some of the best I've ever seen (though Sprinter's is brilliant to be fair). Sprinter is obviously the most likely winner but the race is two months away so not a given that all the principles even turn up. I'm rather less keen on Sanctuaire's chances - I doubt he'd be getting so much air time if he was n't trained and talked up by Nicholls. What would Nicholls say about Cue Card if he trained him instead of Sanctuaire? |
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For all you Sprinter Fans. You maybe interested in this offer.
Champion Chase sponsors Sportingbet offering Evens NR No Bet on Sprinter Sacre up to £100 from 9.00 a.m. on Tuesday for a limited time. |
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Rease,
Personally i dont give a stuff what Nicholls has said re Sanctuaire,i have seen his 3 chases-thats where i form my opinion.He repeats his Sandown run hes a big danger. Totally agree as re Sizing,and that run Saturday will help him to be spot on come December. As for the race itself,expect jockeys of SS and SE to be very wary of giving Sanct too much rope,cos they know he wont come back to them.SS will almost certainly have to go quicker than he has before during the the race cos of Sanct,and really its the perfect scenario for us to give a proper judgement of how good SS or indeed Sanct are,as they will have a fit Champion 2 miler up against them. Its the Tingle Creek,a race with a great history and the 2nd best 2m chase of the season,they will all be up for it and giving all to win it. |
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i was thinking along similar lines bud ,bit of a dilema for sprinter and sizings connections in the tingle creek ,.cant see any of that 2 wanting to go toe to toe early with sanctuaire and as you say cant give him too much rope as he is a quick accurate jumper and has plenty of toe ,lets hope the big 3 and a few others turn up, it should be quite a spectacle seeing this lot over the railway fences .
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I backed Al Ferof to beat SS, and backed Sanctuaire on his Sandown win. I was obviously massively wrong about AF, and though I was pleased with Sanctuaire I can't help but wonder if that run has been somewhat overrated.
You had Somersby right behind him. Talented enough, but you're looking at 1 or 2 good runs a season for Somersby, and the horse had had a tough year with that hard fought win over FR and a typically energy sapping race at Cheltenham. The favourite for Sandown was Wishful Thinking, who simply does not fire over 2m. It was shocking that he was run there, let alone heading the market after all season he'd failed over 2m. I personally don't rate anything else in that field (I'm sure some will disagree), and though Sanctuaires jumping was indeed impressive he certainly had the right to be beating that field. I had been a doubter of SS, but Cheltenham proved how dreadfully wrong I was. I'd be quite surprised if Sanctuaire gets SS off the bridle based on what we've seen so far, and though I fully expect both to improve on this season SS is way far ahead of Sancutaire, it'd require phenomenal improvement to catch SS. |
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You werent massively wrong about Al Ferof,he made a race ending blunder thanks to his jockey(imo)and had any other horse inc SS made the same mistake,then that horse would have been beaten as well.
Of course you can knock holes in the Sandown race,in particular those he beat,but in no way can that detract from HIS performance,which was very impressive. Reckon one could knock the Arkle as well,werent that great a field imo,and the main threat did not do a clean round.Would not knock SS though, who was impressive. What do you base your reasoning that SS is way ahead?? |
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This should be something to savour. Sanctuaire beat jaded horses at Sandown but he beat them easily and jumped really well. It might become particularly interesting if the ground is slow, as Sanctuaire has already demonstrated that he can perform on it.
Likely to be a very small field and the monster will go off very short, as he is entitled to do from what we have seen so far. I think he is capable of much better still. Won't be a betting event for me. |
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I just asked the question about reasoning that SS is way ahead of Sanctuaire
I would be interested in any decent reasoning behind this,as their does seem to be a lot on here that have that opinion. I know what Judo's thoughts are,and he has his way of working out ratings numbers etc,and he has SS a fair way ahead,but at least he recognises these are both novices and both open to improvement. Most posts i have read on here really just say he wins easily,hes much better horse etc etc etc,but the only reasoning that appears seems to be in regard to the opposition they have faced.Seeing as all that opposition has been pretty much beaten out of sight,by both horses,i dont think thats enough. Way i look at it,both horses have won all their chases comfortably,have never met each other,and both been very impressive in their races.I cannot see any evidence that says clearly that SS is better than Sanct,certainly none that puts him way ahead. |
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Sprinter's Arkle was a top quality renewal imo Budd.
You had a bumper winner, two Supreme novices winners, a Supreme Novices placed and a G1 novice chaser and decent hurdler in Blackstairmountain. Before the Arkle, Sprinter only had 1 more chase than Sanctuaire (and 1 of them was a glorified schooling session at Donny), so if Sanctuaire was that good I don't know why they wouldn't go to the Arkle (I understand about his long term future, but because he'd already won a chase, he'd only ever have one shot at the Arkle). I've said numerous times, Sanctuaire needs to prove that his Sandown run wasn't a one off. I know hurdles and fences are different things, but he needs to prove to me that his temprament has improved a lot. Looking through his form and seeing "Led in start but reluctant to race and left at least 20 lengths, never able to catch up" and "Free to post, led in start and veered left, heavily restrained in last, chased leading pair and in touch 3rd, not fluent next, mistake 3 out, weakened rapidly" would always make me think twice. |
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Cheers chief.
Personally i dont see any of that says SS is way ahead of Sanct. Its clear to me that over fences(which is where they need to be compared)Sanct has done nowt wrong and been imo just as impressive in his victories. I have no idea why he was not in the Arkle-perhaps someone could enlighten us-,but i do know had he ran in the race we may well know a lot more!! As re the Arkle,im not so sure it was a quality renewal myself,on paper maybe,but Menorah was jumping average at best in the build up and ran like it,never really racing,Al Ferof made that mistake,and Cue Card ran on ok,but he aint top class. |
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I agree with Well Chief; Sanctuaire, in my head, is still that temperamental nag who once took advantage of a silly handicap mark on his arrival from France to look good on the biggest stage, but promptly had his bubble burst in the most dreadful Grade 1 juvenile hurdle run at Aintree in a long time, and the Scottish Champion hurdle is a pointless horse race that I'd be a 5/4fav for in most runnings. Between these runs we have him getting hammered in handicaps off of 145/146.
I obviously realise that fences can bring about improvement in a horse, but such improvement as to be theoretically rated 180+? Not a chance imo, for me everything adds up to Sanctuaire simply being incredibly flattered at Sandown for the very valid reasons that Sergei suggests. In the Tingle Creek, Sanctuaire may well go off in the lead and ping the railway fences before turning for home. But if he isn't then being swallowed up by well-travelling Sprinter Sacre, I'll be staggered. I simply can't have him as a threat to SS and Sizing Europe. Sizing Europe makes me scratch my head though; I've never really warmed to the horse but he's at least a very credible threat to SS and would be SS's stiffest opponent yet by far imo. |
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Very harsh to call Cue Card not top class Budd, it's incredibly difficult to knock his form and when you consider that he seems a little tripless his efforts deserve all the more credit; I'm not sure we've seen the best of him yet.
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On a complete sidenote, it's been so exciting and such a pleasure to be able to watch Frankel, perhaps the best flat horse ever, on alternating seasons with one of potentially the best NH horses we've had in Sprinter Sacre.
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Thing is though Joist,since chasing he has shown none of that tempremental stuff,and i maintain when comparing these 2 that is where we should be looking,their respective chase form.
He flew round Sandown,no mean feat for a novice having his 3rd ever chase. As re Cue Card,i should have said not top class over 2m,i firmly belive his distance is 2 and half,although i aint sure hes top class there either,but of course time could prove me wrong on that-hes entitled to improve. Really all im getting is opinions,which is fine,this is a forum a lot of which is about opinion,but i still dont see reasoning which says SS is way ahead. |
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Joist,
your sidenote there mentions the word potentially,think that should be used more when talking about novices. Helps to keep things in perspective imo |
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Lol Budd are we really going to have another season of you trying to get Sprinter beat?
 #MACHINE |
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No probs Budd - enjoy a good deabate, and if you weren't sticking up for Sanc there'd be nothing to talk about!
I do see your point - on paper they've both posted very similar performances, and visually both were very impressive, but I suppose its how highly you rate the fact Sprinter won an Arkle and Sanc won an end of season chase. Everyone always calls Aintree form "dodgy", so I don't see why end of season Sandown form wouldn't be. I'm sure you'll say Al Ferof didn't put in his true running at Aintree when thrashed by Menorah because of a long and hard season, but the same could be said about Somersby and Wishful Thinking because they'd been on the go since October and November. In the Arkle they all lined up on the start line cherry ripe. |
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Sorry Joist,just seen your comment re Sizing Europe,made me laugh to be honest. The bit about him being a credible threat to SS,and his stiffest opponent yet. Any one would think SS has one or two QM'S under his belt,the way that came across. |
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Chief,
I aint sure we will see much of Al Ferof racing at the sort of level he was running in as a novice. Have a nasty feeling about him to be honest. Nice one MM,no i aint trying to get him beat mate.You could all be right. Gonna be a great season mate,be some fun on here as well!! |
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Also Chief i do agree with yer points about the Arkle and the end of season chase,thats fair enough.
We still wont know for sure till they meet though,and i guess i just get a bit annoyed when people think so much of one horse,that another horse that,in my mind, has been just as impressive visually,just gets pooh-poohed. |
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i should add to that.......especially with improving(or maybe not)novices.
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Lol I'm looking forward to it.
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Just read my Sizing Europe bit again Budd and yeah- it does come across a bit amusing when you think about it! I just hold SS In such huge esteem, I really think he'll be one of the best ever (not that I need to tell you that after plenty of debates we had last season)
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Yeh,you and many others it seems,and you all may be right he may be one of the best ever,could be now but we just dont know it yet!!
Personally i have no problem with SS proving an all time great,best ever etc. As i said above though i do have a bit of a problem when people dismiss a horse who imo was just as impressive in his chases as SS was in his. Time will tell if i am right in my comments re Sanctuaire,and it may be that SS will prove i should never have him in the same league. I still think the Tingle Creek will be a fascinating race,and a close one,just hope these 2 + SE turn up. |
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I'm certainly not dismissive of Sanctuaire. He's not rated far behind SS and every horse can can have off day, as SS did on his hurdles debut.
However, SS is the highest rated novice chaser of this millenium according to the Official Handicapper and already the third best rated chaser in training according to Timeform behind Kauto and Long Run and has the 'p'. |
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There seems to be an undercurrent on this thread that people "want" SS to be the best ever. That's fine - everyone likes to see all time greats and it's the way sport should be. But it requires very high quality opposition.
Arkle got his stellar ratings by (a) running in top handicaps giving away lumps of weight and (b) thrashing the very highly rated Mill House. Sprinter will not do (a) because that's not the modern way. The only way he can get "best-ever" ratings is by beating extremely good horses very handsomely in conditions races. Yet many people on this thread have been pretty dismissive of his likely opponents - which will make it hard for SS to prove himself as a great horse. Those who "want" him to be the best have to hope that Sizing Europe is still somewhere near his best at 11, Finians (from SS's yard) stays at 2 miles and, yes, Sanctuaire turns out to be very, very good. Without this, SS will struggle to put up ratings much higher than about 190. Top rank for sure, but a long way off best ever. I'm with Budd to the extent that I see nothing that says SS is vastly superior to Sanctuaire so far over fences. I agree SS looks the better horse and has more potential, but they've both shown pretty similar levels of bare form. Sanct has looked very impressive in all 3 of his chase starts and arguably what he did around Sandown is harder for a novice than anything SS did last season. The main reason I'm not yet convinced is we've no idea what SS can/will do if he ever has to battle. He may find absolutely nothing which would put a very hard cap on his rating. I'm also uncomfortable with the prejudice against Sanctuaire. Yes, he was a dog over hurdles but SS got well beaten in the Supreme and noone mentions that any more. This is not yet a done deal. Potential is impossible to quantify and easy to over estimate. |
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Bud - I think that the arkle, though not the greatest race ever, was a pretty strong renewal, and I'd definitely place it higher than anything Sanctuaire has done...I remember wincing when AF hit that fence mind, it could've been a much tougher contest.
I suppose visually SS has impressed me more as well. Sanctuaire has jumped well but SS seems to glide over fences, and, of course, he's got a hell of an engine on him. I take your point about it being largely about potential at this point in time though, the future is still unwritten, and SS wouldn't be the first nor the last horse to not quite live up to expectations. Looks like there's a really exciting crop this year doesn't it? This will only be my second full jumps season (started getting into racing around Cheltenham 2011) and I'm still learning, can't wait for it all to start. |
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We are all still learning mate!!
Yes its an exciting year coming up,particlarly with the nov chasers i feel.The Irish have a fair few that get the heart pumping,as well as SS and Sanctuaire. You make fair points,and no way am i crabbing SS,im just not as confident as some that hes the next Pegasus,and i honestly think that Sanctuaire could win the Tingle Creek,and that would really stir things up!! Not saying he WILL win,just not dismissing him like others are. Re the Arkle,i get what you say,but take a look at the Sandown race and that had seasoned chasers like Somersby well beaten.Yes,end of season,so bit dodgy form,but they turned up fit enough for their connections to run them,and Sanct could not really have been much more impressive than he was. |
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I'm pretty sure it was not a vintage Arkle. Once Al Ferof effectively dropped out it was a 2 horse race and that against a horse who arguably wants further. I'd say Sprinter's best performance was probably in the Game Spirit.
At Sandown, Sanctuaire beat (easily) Somersby, French Opera, Woolcombe Folly and Cornas. I generally take the view that April/May form is unreliable, but as Budd says Sanct couldn't have done any more that day. All the horses I mention are decent or better 2 mile chasers. I wonder if there's an issue of perception here. Sprinter put in excellent performances throughout the season and was firmly established in our consciousness. Sanctuaire came on the scene rather late in the season. I wonder if peoples' relative assessments of the two would be different had they put in their performances the other way round. |
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In fairness I'd not been in the SS camp come Cheltenham time, and I'd considered the Newbury run to be somewhat overrated, mostly because Long Run had broken the course record on the same day in what was considered a poor run (of course, his run could've been underrated using that yardstick). Even if the arkle was against a horse who would want further, the fact that SS was barely asked for an effort coming up the hill was hugely impressive.
Talking about the arkle has reminded me to follow Al Ferof for next season, thought he took a bit of an undue slating after that aintree run. |
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It sure was impressive - the most impressive performance of the festival for me.
All I'm trying to say is neither SS or sanct have put a foot wrong over fences; it's impossible to assess how good they will both turn out to be; it's therefore not a foregone conclusion what will happen when they race. |
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My views on the relative chances / merits of Sanc and SS are above. I have concerns about the Celebration Chase form and this renewal but some smart horses have won it. A few upsets too. Edredon Bleu, Cenkos, Seebald, River City, Dempsey, Andreas, Twist Magic, I'm so Lucky, French Opera, Sanctuaire. Another comment I would make about Sanc (against those who say he has done too much too soon to have scope to improve - and I am totally against him vs SS in the TC!) is that very often when he ran over hurdles, he did not do a tap and hardly had a hard race.
Strontium, if you are still reading at this late hour, are you off to Devon and Exeter tomorrow? |
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I'm afriad not. Went to Towcester today for my first meet since May. Got the blood racing!
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No problem my friend, just wondering. Good entries today too certainly. Thank heavens the racing tide is turning!
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Yeh thats pretty much my view of the Arkle Stront.
I can see why people say it was a good one cos on paper it had fomer Chelt winners and it seemed to have the best 2m chasers seen that season,although time tells us Sanct should have been there. But as i have said,Al Ferof made that error,Menorah never got in the race-probably cos he had jumped ropey all season,and Cue Card was the only one that was there at the end,and imo hes not a 2miler. Of course people could point out that SS caused all that cos hes so good,and thats possible. Sanctuiare thrashed those horses that Stront mentions,all are proper 2 milers,some with form against the best around.End of season yes,but theres plenty of evidence all round, looking at all the form, to suggest the Tingle Creek will be no cake walk-for any horse. Sergei, i followed Al Ferof last season,and defended him a lot on here,but be wary this season is my advice. Theres a possibility he was affected by what happened at Cheltenham. |
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budd,totally agree with your reading of the form.
As much as i believe ss is a superstar,and i also believe hewill sit in behind and go past sanctuaire between the last 2fences,but i think your right in your analysis. At the present time theres not much between them and people are only guessing at the potential.. Im not knocking anyone and while im in the ss camp ,id always like to evaluate the way a race panned out,and not be content with the bare result.ftm |
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The other thing to consider is that Nicholls has said Sanctuaire (all being well) will only run twice this season, so in the same way that Kauto was for the Betfair Chase last year he will be primed to the minute at Sandown whereas Sprinter Sacre will be building up towards Cheltenham.
Anything other than Sizing likely to come over from Ireland for it? |