Forums

Cheltenham Festival

There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
RN1986
25 Jun 12 19:43
Joined:
Date Joined: 17 Dec 11
| Topic/replies: 23 | Blogger: RN1986's blog
Anyone think that sprinter sacre to be unbeaten for the whole season represents value. i got a quote of 9/2 today from hill's, this is what they said "We are able to offer you 9-2 for Sprinter Sacre (Nicky Henderson) to be unbeaten during the 2012/13 National Hunt season. He must run at least once and all races to count (ie UK, Ire, France etc)."  i had a similar bet with big bucks at 3/1 last season and it came in. He could be the best we've ever seen. Any opinions?

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 1 of 3  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 94
By:
neill d
When: 25 Jun 12 20:57
very good price, especially given he is staying at 2miles, only danger is sanctuaire as I doubt he and Finians will meet.
By:
strontium
When: 25 Jun 12 22:26
It's an interesting bet for sure though not as good as the BB one imo as he was so well proven.

What do we think SS's campaign will be? I'd suggest Tingle Creek/VC Chase/Champion Chase/Punchestown.

Maybe the Desert Orchid Chase if things don't go to plan, Maybe the Melling if they want a run at Aintree.

He's likely to be favourite for all, very short for all except the TC and QMCC. I'd suggest you might get a bit longer than 9/2 rolling them all up. On the other hand, by taking the bet you know the price and you also have some insurance if he runs once or twice and picks up an injury.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 27 Jun 12 10:04
Good luck with the bet RN. More difficult task for a chaser imo but he will be a better horse again for this summer at grass - he still looked a bit narrow last season. He is favoured by the fact the most of the grade 1 2 mile chases are run right handed. Despite coping perfectly well with Cheltenham, he has a tendancy to lug to the right. I hope the horse is lucky with injury and in running, as he looks exceptional and I don't believe I've ever seen a novice jump fences better.
By:
Shotgun Willy
When: 08 Jul 12 10:28
I think 9/2 is a very fair price.
By:
Desmond Orchard
When: 09 Jul 12 13:10
4 runs at 2s-on as the average price works out at approx 4/1, with 5 runs at more like 13/2. Depends on how many times you reckon he'll run and his likely average starting price as to whether it's value (could be 1/10 again a couple of times and I doubt he'll ever be bigger than evens, regardless of whether they bring Flyingbolt back from the dead). Plus, like Stront says, you've got a bit of insurance if he cops a leg after one or two runs at 9/2.
In summary, if you fancy him to do it, it's a good price - I certainly wouldn't lay it.
By:
Howdi
When: 09 Jul 12 18:15
^^^^ nor me.
By:
chelters16
When: 09 Jul 12 18:35
.......and me the very thought is scaryShocked
By:
cammy glasgow
When: 14 Jul 12 15:38
Uttor rubbish hills never went 9/2 that bet , i was in today to get that confirmed with head office i think i smell DOG POO Angry
By:
jimnast
When: 16 Jul 12 17:47
i hope the horse doesnt start his season in the haldon gold cup.
By:
strontium
When: 16 Jul 12 22:19
It's a race Henderson doesn't really go fo isn't it? (too early?) Plus Nicholls tends to run a good one there (often his best 2 miler) - it could well be Sanctuaire's come back race and I can't see SS racing him before the Tingle Creek.
By:
jimnast
When: 17 Jul 12 08:48
strontium

i agree its not a race henderson targets thankfully.
By:
Makybe_Diva
When: 18 Jul 12 20:22
Roll on the jumps season.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 07 Aug 12 21:07
according to the sporting life site today sprinter sacre is back at hendos and looking bigger (not fat )and stronger and hendo says he is definatly a 2 miler and  early targets  are the tingle creek and victor chandler
By:
chelters16
When: 07 Aug 12 21:57
Saw the report cant wait to see this lad out again,so roll on the autumn it promises to be a spectacular season.
By:
voice.of.reason
When: 10 Aug 12 20:15
If he stays fit and well you can collect your dough now, steering job in my opinion.could be better than moscow flyer , a machine pure and simple.I wont be getting involved betting wise just enjoy the moment , very much in same way we all enjoyed Frankel.
By:
RN1986
When: 10 Aug 12 21:05
In relation to cammy glasgow post above, if you email hills they will give you a price within a few days. Don't know if they'll still give 9/2. I have no reason to lie.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 15 Aug 12 09:53
Sound like a racing snob when I say this but you don't realise how good Sprinter Sacre is until you see him in the flesh; at both Cheltenham and Aintree he was cruising along and then Barry just asked him to quicken slightly and he immediatly responded, imagine the speed he could go when really asked a question
By:
chelters16
When: 15 Aug 12 21:47
Bluebird I agree there is nothing quite like seeing a horse close up,a little off topic so apologies.
Last years Neptune took the trouble not to go to the parade ring but stood right at the shoot to see the horses walk out,the difference between Simonsig and the rest was obvious even to a poor judge as myself now I knew the form of the race back to front and had seen all the video but until I saw Simonsig close up and saw the difference between him and the other horses, well my doubting mind on this lad was made up.
Went into the ring opened the old sporran and put the cash down,so agree NOTHING is better than trying to see the horses close up and letting the horse fill your eye,whether in parade ring,on the shoot or while in action in front of you on the course.
By:
R Carver
When: 15 Aug 12 22:21
I can easily see him being unbeaten. I think Strontium's plan sounds about right.

I cannot see Aintree (27.10), Exeter (06.11) or the Schloer Chase (18.11) interesting 7 Barrows early on due to trip, earlyness, grade etc.

I think they will go straight to Sandown (though as noted last yr, against Sanctuaire, there would be some pace in that race FTO) on 08.12. The Desert Orchid is (obviously) 27.12.

Last year the VC was run on 21.01, the AON on 17.02 (should have been 11.02 I think). All things being well, much will depend on the weather though Newbury is a G2 and Ascot is a G1, and last yr they ran their QMCC hopeful at Ascot and their Arkle horse at Newbury.

If all went to plan, I would see little value running him after Cheltenham, though QMCC form obviously translates to the longer Melling race.
By:
R Carver
When: 16 Aug 12 08:04
* AON should read Game Spirit!
By:
Slabster
When: 16 Aug 12 19:39
Tingle Creek could be the race of the season with Sprinter Sacre, Sizing Europe and Sanctuaire!
By:
chelters16
When: 19 Aug 12 20:01
I would be a little surprised if SE takes on SS pre-Cheltenham,I believe HDB was gutted after the CC in March so see a home based light campaign for SE before being ready to run for its life against SS+S in March.

If SE had a lead for longer than 3 fences in March am pretty certain he would have beaten FR,also SE missed 3 out completely costing 2-3L,but possibly my pocket talking although I dont believe so.

Easily my favourite horse but if it meets SS at Cheltenham both unbeaten for the season it could be a classic but a watching brief as believe SS in a monster,and NH will have a real line in SE through FR.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 19 Aug 12 20:47
Chelters

It is a poorly kept secret that Sprinter Sacre was considered the best horse in the yard last season by the Henderson team. He will be better this time round for another summer at grass but jump racing has a habit of kicking you in the bollocks and he could easily beat himself by making a mistake/incur a training setback. I sincerely hope I'm wrong - I've watched jump racing for 40 years and never seen a novice chaser jump better.
By:
chelters16
When: 19 Aug 12 21:24
Festivalfanatic Ive just revisited the Arkle via You Tube and while taking away NOTHING from a potential superstar and it was great to be reminded of SS ability,its jumping wasnt as flamboyant as its other races just what you need in the big uns but are we 100% sure SS toyed with Cue Card between the last 2 ? Is there any remaining doubts over its staying 2m at Cheltenham against the top notchers as the Arkle field bar a off form AF were a moderate bunch at best ?
Most have already made there mind up this horse is the second coming,Ive been MIGHTILY impressed by this lad in his novice year but I just have a few nagging doubts that this year will lay to rest.
Its been years since Ive been so enthused by the thought of a upcoming jumps campaign.
By:
strontium
When: 19 Aug 12 21:54
Chelters, I agree with you about SE in this QMCC. However, I think we'll see him in the Tingle Creek again - it's a race and likely ground that suits him and a chance to see where he stands against the top British 2 milers. I am sure SS toyed with Cue Card between the last 2 - as soon as Geraghty gave him a shove after the last he charged up the hill (just as he did in the last 100 y of the Game Spirit).
By:
Howdi
When: 19 Aug 12 21:55
ss COULD BE A 3-4 TIME WINNER OF THE QUEEN MUM FRIGGING BEAST OF A HORSE
By:
tomdeane
When: 20 Aug 12 01:57
chelters16 - I thought his jumping was every bit as flamboyant when given his head in the Arkle. That leap at the third last was better than anything I've ever seen at the track (including non-novice company). It was unreal, and I am 100% convinced that he was toying with Cue Card too. Love the close-up camera angle when he swings for home and you can see, to use a classic racing cliche, that he's not out of second gear.

I wasn't convinced until he won the Game Spirit last year but that changed my view and his wins at Cheltenham and Aintree did nothing to change that view. Hope more than anything that he stays sound because he could be a three or four-time Champion Chase winner.
By:
festivalfanatic
When: 20 Aug 12 09:03
This is right td. Once the pace quickened at the first open ditch down the back straight, his jumping was electric. Race was run in standard time and I believe the exploits of Cue Card this coming season (albeit over a longer trip) will put this Arkle performance in its proper perspective.
By:
Dado Bear
When: 20 Aug 12 22:22
I think this horse with set the NH scene alight this year. Having bet this for this years Champion Chase before last years arkle with Paddys I am even more convinced having looked over replays of its races.

It finds for pressure, jumps like a stag and has potential to improve significantly.  Sizing Europe, albeit a great credit to connections wont have the toe to cope with this boy. Sizing will be 11 come March and he certaintly wont be improving and is rated 171 at the moment. 

Sanctuaire is rated 166 and is an inflated rating in my opinion based on a beating of Somersby at Sandown. The rest are either exposed or simply not good enough.  It went off against a very small field of novices last year for 1 reason.

Sprinter is rated 169 and will surely post a higher rating when given its head and ridden out.  In summary 9 to 2 is a massive price as it will be selectively campaigned in my opinion with insurance of a single run and injury and you still collect.

Personally 5 to 4 to stay fit till March is good enough for me and better interest than any ISA.
By:
Dado Bear
When: 20 Aug 12 22:33
Forgot to add Finians wont take this on next season at all because the yard know over 2 miles Finians wont cut it.  When it comes out, the market will take a different look and I can see this going off very short indeed in another small field.
By:
Howdi
When: 20 Aug 12 22:34
^^^ FINIANS WONT CUT IT AT 2 MILES WHAT LIKE LAST SEASON YOU MEAN?
By:
strontium
When: 20 Aug 12 22:51
Sprinter Sacre looks the better horse but it's foolish to write off Sanctuaire at this stage. Some of the decent Irish novices (e.g. Flemenstar) may end up over 2 m if they don't stay 3+. SS hasn't won it yet.
By:
buddeliea
When: 21 Aug 12 12:30
Finians won the top 2m race last season!!!.
Sanctuaire is very interesting as are a few others at this stage.

SS is extremely impressive and could well go unbeaten,but its not the sort of bet that interests me,too much can happen,and lets face it he aint ran at the top level yet.
By:
strontium
When: 21 Aug 12 12:42
Long Run, Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe and Grands Crus were all certainties on March 12th Grin
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 21 Aug 12 14:42
dado bear you say sprinter sacre finds for pressure ! the last time i can remember it came under pressure it did not find as muchb as expected  (supreme novices hurdle )finished behind al ferof spirit son ect) some excuses were put up (not strenthened up ect)i am not saying it is not a superstar but some are assuming its past the post already ! if sprinter meets sanctuarie in the tingle creek and assuming sanctuaire goes off in front then we could see pressure applied to sprinter sacres jumping ! that will be the acid test and then we will see what he is made of .
he could well be the real deal and as the betting suggests he is the likliest winner of the qmcc at this stage ,but the betting suggested the same of sizing eorope last season and we know how that ended up .
By:
Howdi
When: 21 Aug 12 17:11
^^^ to be fair Sizing was about 5-1 pre season this thing is 5-4.
By:
buddeliea
When: 21 Aug 12 17:20
Its a shame that Al Ferof made that error in the Arkle,cos i am pretty sure we would have seen SS having to find under pressure,unfortunately what happened,happened,and as good as Cue Card is he aint a top 2 miler,and good enough to do that.
So we still imo have yet to see just how good SS is,and he will be facing the best around soon,thats when we find out for sure.
Current odds make no appeal for unbeaten or the QM.Well not for me anyway.
Mind you after the Tingle Creek it may all look very different!!
By:
wellchief
When: 21 Aug 12 17:52
I think most people would agree that 5/4 now isn't a backable price; however it may look huge come March, and i think he is definitely the most likely winner at this stage.

I still don't really see Sanctuaire as a threat until he can prove his last run wasn't a one off, like when he was prone to a good run over hurdles and then his form falling off a cliff.

Finians was so impressive at Aintree, and really think his future lies over further.  Imo, Sizing is definitely the main threat to SS at the moment.
By:
chelters16
When: 21 Aug 12 18:20
2.24 to lay, 2.16 to bet at the moment at those prices if pushed Im a layer.

The AF factor and a moderate field in the Arkle would give layers hope even if he makes it to the Festival(please let him make it),also the mighty BB was evens or so at the off of this years stayers(the greedy books may still try and get SS) so laying @2.24 could be the bet given its a long rocky road to the festival and even if SS makes it layers could still get out or have enough hope to let a 2.24 bet ride for reasons stated above and always the chance of a mishap and some easy cash to be made.

Will possibly start laying SS if more liquidity is available around 2.24 or so.
Page 1 of 3  •  Previous 1 | 2 | 3 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com