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RN1986
25 Jun 12 19:43
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Date Joined: 17 Dec 11
| Topic/replies: 23 | Blogger: RN1986's blog
Anyone think that sprinter sacre to be unbeaten for the whole season represents value. i got a quote of 9/2 today from hill's, this is what they said "We are able to offer you 9-2 for Sprinter Sacre (Nicky Henderson) to be unbeaten during the 2012/13 National Hunt season. He must run at least once and all races to count (ie UK, Ire, France etc)."  i had a similar bet with big bucks at 3/1 last season and it came in. He could be the best we've ever seen. Any opinions?
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Report neill d June 25, 2012 8:57 PM BST
very good price, especially given he is staying at 2miles, only danger is sanctuaire as I doubt he and Finians will meet.
Report strontium June 25, 2012 10:26 PM BST
It's an interesting bet for sure though not as good as the BB one imo as he was so well proven.

What do we think SS's campaign will be? I'd suggest Tingle Creek/VC Chase/Champion Chase/Punchestown.

Maybe the Desert Orchid Chase if things don't go to plan, Maybe the Melling if they want a run at Aintree.

He's likely to be favourite for all, very short for all except the TC and QMCC. I'd suggest you might get a bit longer than 9/2 rolling them all up. On the other hand, by taking the bet you know the price and you also have some insurance if he runs once or twice and picks up an injury.
Report festivalfanatic June 27, 2012 10:04 AM BST
Good luck with the bet RN. More difficult task for a chaser imo but he will be a better horse again for this summer at grass - he still looked a bit narrow last season. He is favoured by the fact the most of the grade 1 2 mile chases are run right handed. Despite coping perfectly well with Cheltenham, he has a tendancy to lug to the right. I hope the horse is lucky with injury and in running, as he looks exceptional and I don't believe I've ever seen a novice jump fences better.
Report Shotgun Willy July 8, 2012 10:28 AM BST
I think 9/2 is a very fair price.
Report Desmond Orchard July 9, 2012 1:10 PM BST
4 runs at 2s-on as the average price works out at approx 4/1, with 5 runs at more like 13/2. Depends on how many times you reckon he'll run and his likely average starting price as to whether it's value (could be 1/10 again a couple of times and I doubt he'll ever be bigger than evens, regardless of whether they bring Flyingbolt back from the dead). Plus, like Stront says, you've got a bit of insurance if he cops a leg after one or two runs at 9/2.
In summary, if you fancy him to do it, it's a good price - I certainly wouldn't lay it.
Report Howdi July 9, 2012 6:15 PM BST
^^^^ nor me.
Report chelters16 July 9, 2012 6:35 PM BST
.......and me the very thought is scaryShocked
Report cammy glasgow July 14, 2012 3:38 PM BST
Uttor rubbish hills never went 9/2 that bet , i was in today to get that confirmed with head office i think i smell DOG POO Angry
Report jimnast July 16, 2012 5:47 PM BST
i hope the horse doesnt start his season in the haldon gold cup.
Report strontium July 16, 2012 10:19 PM BST
It's a race Henderson doesn't really go fo isn't it? (too early?) Plus Nicholls tends to run a good one there (often his best 2 miler) - it could well be Sanctuaire's come back race and I can't see SS racing him before the Tingle Creek.
Report jimnast July 17, 2012 8:48 AM BST
strontium

i agree its not a race henderson targets thankfully.
Report Makybe_Diva July 18, 2012 8:22 PM BST
Roll on the jumps season.
Report FOYLESWAR August 7, 2012 9:07 PM BST
according to the sporting life site today sprinter sacre is back at hendos and looking bigger (not fat )and stronger and hendo says he is definatly a 2 miler and  early targets  are the tingle creek and victor chandler
Report chelters16 August 7, 2012 9:57 PM BST
Saw the report cant wait to see this lad out again,so roll on the autumn it promises to be a spectacular season.
Report voice.of.reason August 10, 2012 8:15 PM BST
If he stays fit and well you can collect your dough now, steering job in my opinion.could be better than moscow flyer , a machine pure and simple.I wont be getting involved betting wise just enjoy the moment , very much in same way we all enjoyed Frankel.
Report RN1986 August 10, 2012 9:05 PM BST
In relation to cammy glasgow post above, if you email hills they will give you a price within a few days. Don't know if they'll still give 9/2. I have no reason to lie.
Report bluebirdfan August 15, 2012 9:53 AM BST
Sound like a racing snob when I say this but you don't realise how good Sprinter Sacre is until you see him in the flesh; at both Cheltenham and Aintree he was cruising along and then Barry just asked him to quicken slightly and he immediatly responded, imagine the speed he could go when really asked a question
Report chelters16 August 15, 2012 9:47 PM BST
Bluebird I agree there is nothing quite like seeing a horse close up,a little off topic so apologies.
Last years Neptune took the trouble not to go to the parade ring but stood right at the shoot to see the horses walk out,the difference between Simonsig and the rest was obvious even to a poor judge as myself now I knew the form of the race back to front and had seen all the video but until I saw Simonsig close up and saw the difference between him and the other horses, well my doubting mind on this lad was made up.
Went into the ring opened the old sporran and put the cash down,so agree NOTHING is better than trying to see the horses close up and letting the horse fill your eye,whether in parade ring,on the shoot or while in action in front of you on the course.
Report R Carver August 15, 2012 10:21 PM BST
I can easily see him being unbeaten. I think Strontium's plan sounds about right.

I cannot see Aintree (27.10), Exeter (06.11) or the Schloer Chase (18.11) interesting 7 Barrows early on due to trip, earlyness, grade etc.

I think they will go straight to Sandown (though as noted last yr, against Sanctuaire, there would be some pace in that race FTO) on 08.12. The Desert Orchid is (obviously) 27.12.

Last year the VC was run on 21.01, the AON on 17.02 (should have been 11.02 I think). All things being well, much will depend on the weather though Newbury is a G2 and Ascot is a G1, and last yr they ran their QMCC hopeful at Ascot and their Arkle horse at Newbury.

If all went to plan, I would see little value running him after Cheltenham, though QMCC form obviously translates to the longer Melling race.
Report R Carver August 16, 2012 8:04 AM BST
* AON should read Game Spirit!
Report Slabster August 16, 2012 7:39 PM BST
Tingle Creek could be the race of the season with Sprinter Sacre, Sizing Europe and Sanctuaire!
Report chelters16 August 19, 2012 8:01 PM BST
I would be a little surprised if SE takes on SS pre-Cheltenham,I believe HDB was gutted after the CC in March so see a home based light campaign for SE before being ready to run for its life against SS+S in March.

If SE had a lead for longer than 3 fences in March am pretty certain he would have beaten FR,also SE missed 3 out completely costing 2-3L,but possibly my pocket talking although I dont believe so.

Easily my favourite horse but if it meets SS at Cheltenham both unbeaten for the season it could be a classic but a watching brief as believe SS in a monster,and NH will have a real line in SE through FR.
Report festivalfanatic August 19, 2012 8:47 PM BST
Chelters

It is a poorly kept secret that Sprinter Sacre was considered the best horse in the yard last season by the Henderson team. He will be better this time round for another summer at grass but jump racing has a habit of kicking you in the bollocks and he could easily beat himself by making a mistake/incur a training setback. I sincerely hope I'm wrong - I've watched jump racing for 40 years and never seen a novice chaser jump better.
Report chelters16 August 19, 2012 9:24 PM BST
Festivalfanatic Ive just revisited the Arkle via You Tube and while taking away NOTHING from a potential superstar and it was great to be reminded of SS ability,its jumping wasnt as flamboyant as its other races just what you need in the big uns but are we 100% sure SS toyed with Cue Card between the last 2 ? Is there any remaining doubts over its staying 2m at Cheltenham against the top notchers as the Arkle field bar a off form AF were a moderate bunch at best ?
Most have already made there mind up this horse is the second coming,Ive been MIGHTILY impressed by this lad in his novice year but I just have a few nagging doubts that this year will lay to rest.
Its been years since Ive been so enthused by the thought of a upcoming jumps campaign.
Report strontium August 19, 2012 9:54 PM BST
Chelters, I agree with you about SE in this QMCC. However, I think we'll see him in the Tingle Creek again - it's a race and likely ground that suits him and a chance to see where he stands against the top British 2 milers. I am sure SS toyed with Cue Card between the last 2 - as soon as Geraghty gave him a shove after the last he charged up the hill (just as he did in the last 100 y of the Game Spirit).
Report Howdi August 19, 2012 9:55 PM BST
ss COULD BE A 3-4 TIME WINNER OF THE QUEEN MUM FRIGGING BEAST OF A HORSE
Report tomdeane August 20, 2012 1:57 AM BST
chelters16 - I thought his jumping was every bit as flamboyant when given his head in the Arkle. That leap at the third last was better than anything I've ever seen at the track (including non-novice company). It was unreal, and I am 100% convinced that he was toying with Cue Card too. Love the close-up camera angle when he swings for home and you can see, to use a classic racing cliche, that he's not out of second gear.

I wasn't convinced until he won the Game Spirit last year but that changed my view and his wins at Cheltenham and Aintree did nothing to change that view. Hope more than anything that he stays sound because he could be a three or four-time Champion Chase winner.
Report festivalfanatic August 20, 2012 9:03 AM BST
This is right td. Once the pace quickened at the first open ditch down the back straight, his jumping was electric. Race was run in standard time and I believe the exploits of Cue Card this coming season (albeit over a longer trip) will put this Arkle performance in its proper perspective.
Report Dado Bear August 20, 2012 10:22 PM BST
I think this horse with set the NH scene alight this year. Having bet this for this years Champion Chase before last years arkle with Paddys I am even more convinced having looked over replays of its races.

It finds for pressure, jumps like a stag and has potential to improve significantly.  Sizing Europe, albeit a great credit to connections wont have the toe to cope with this boy. Sizing will be 11 come March and he certaintly wont be improving and is rated 171 at the moment. 

Sanctuaire is rated 166 and is an inflated rating in my opinion based on a beating of Somersby at Sandown. The rest are either exposed or simply not good enough.  It went off against a very small field of novices last year for 1 reason.

Sprinter is rated 169 and will surely post a higher rating when given its head and ridden out.  In summary 9 to 2 is a massive price as it will be selectively campaigned in my opinion with insurance of a single run and injury and you still collect.

Personally 5 to 4 to stay fit till March is good enough for me and better interest than any ISA.
Report Dado Bear August 20, 2012 10:33 PM BST
Forgot to add Finians wont take this on next season at all because the yard know over 2 miles Finians wont cut it.  When it comes out, the market will take a different look and I can see this going off very short indeed in another small field.
Report Howdi August 20, 2012 10:34 PM BST
^^^ FINIANS WONT CUT IT AT 2 MILES WHAT LIKE LAST SEASON YOU MEAN?
Report strontium August 20, 2012 10:51 PM BST
Sprinter Sacre looks the better horse but it's foolish to write off Sanctuaire at this stage. Some of the decent Irish novices (e.g. Flemenstar) may end up over 2 m if they don't stay 3+. SS hasn't won it yet.
Report buddeliea August 21, 2012 12:30 PM BST
Finians won the top 2m race last season!!!.
Sanctuaire is very interesting as are a few others at this stage.

SS is extremely impressive and could well go unbeaten,but its not the sort of bet that interests me,too much can happen,and lets face it he aint ran at the top level yet.
Report strontium August 21, 2012 12:42 PM BST
Long Run, Hurricane Fly, Sizing Europe and Grands Crus were all certainties on March 12th Grin
Report FOYLESWAR August 21, 2012 2:42 PM BST
dado bear you say sprinter sacre finds for pressure ! the last time i can remember it came under pressure it did not find as muchb as expected  (supreme novices hurdle )finished behind al ferof spirit son ect) some excuses were put up (not strenthened up ect)i am not saying it is not a superstar but some are assuming its past the post already ! if sprinter meets sanctuarie in the tingle creek and assuming sanctuaire goes off in front then we could see pressure applied to sprinter sacres jumping ! that will be the acid test and then we will see what he is made of .
he could well be the real deal and as the betting suggests he is the likliest winner of the qmcc at this stage ,but the betting suggested the same of sizing eorope last season and we know how that ended up .
Report Howdi August 21, 2012 5:11 PM BST
^^^ to be fair Sizing was about 5-1 pre season this thing is 5-4.
Report buddeliea August 21, 2012 5:20 PM BST
Its a shame that Al Ferof made that error in the Arkle,cos i am pretty sure we would have seen SS having to find under pressure,unfortunately what happened,happened,and as good as Cue Card is he aint a top 2 miler,and good enough to do that.
So we still imo have yet to see just how good SS is,and he will be facing the best around soon,thats when we find out for sure.
Current odds make no appeal for unbeaten or the QM.Well not for me anyway.
Mind you after the Tingle Creek it may all look very different!!
Report wellchief August 21, 2012 5:52 PM BST
I think most people would agree that 5/4 now isn't a backable price; however it may look huge come March, and i think he is definitely the most likely winner at this stage.

I still don't really see Sanctuaire as a threat until he can prove his last run wasn't a one off, like when he was prone to a good run over hurdles and then his form falling off a cliff.

Finians was so impressive at Aintree, and really think his future lies over further.  Imo, Sizing is definitely the main threat to SS at the moment.
Report chelters16 August 21, 2012 6:20 PM BST
2.24 to lay, 2.16 to bet at the moment at those prices if pushed Im a layer.

The AF factor and a moderate field in the Arkle would give layers hope even if he makes it to the Festival(please let him make it),also the mighty BB was evens or so at the off of this years stayers(the greedy books may still try and get SS) so laying @2.24 could be the bet given its a long rocky road to the festival and even if SS makes it layers could still get out or have enough hope to let a 2.24 bet ride for reasons stated above and always the chance of a mishap and some easy cash to be made.

Will possibly start laying SS if more liquidity is available around 2.24 or so.
Report R Carver August 21, 2012 7:28 PM BST
I too think AF would have found up the hill, as CC did, but I think SS would have toyed with him in similar fashion.

AF did not beat FR (who had problems) at Ascot, the stable have not said it but i think they are quite certain SS is better than FR (though only the track, should they meet, would prove it) so as interesting as it would have been to have seen AF with a clear round, I cannot imagine how he would have won.
Report buddeliea August 21, 2012 7:44 PM BST
Well we will never know for sure,and unfortunately in racing that happens.
What i do know is that both horses were going well at the time,and AF is a proven solid stayer over 2m at Cheltenham.
Shame.
It would have told us more for definite than we know at the moment.
Report buddeliea August 21, 2012 7:44 PM BST
Well we will never know for sure,and unfortunately in racing that happens.
What i do know is that both horses were going well at the time,and AF is a proven solid stayer over 2m at Cheltenham.
Shame.
It would have told us more for definite than we know at the moment.
Report buddeliea August 21, 2012 7:45 PM BST
Still,its good to have some unknown,gives us something to debate.
Report R Carver August 21, 2012 8:10 PM BST
Certainly is! That 'never knowing' can be a huge source of frustration but it is also what keeps the game (and the forum) going!

How are you keeping Budd - having a good summer? I hope you are not getting involved in the flat!?
Report buddeliea August 21, 2012 8:50 PM BST
keeping well thanks RC,enjoying the summer,what weve had of it!!
No involvment with the flat,not my cup of tea at all mate,although am interested in how Frankel gets on tomorrow,as he seems a bit special.

Just a nice break in Greece in September to come,and then its all systems go,culminating in March!!
Report buddeliea August 21, 2012 8:52 PM BST
Trust you are keeping well,and looking forward to the new season.
Not too long now mate.
Report R Carver August 22, 2012 7:04 AM BST
Sounds good Budd. My flat involvement is similar! Very much looking forwards to Chepstow now.
Report Howdi August 23, 2012 8:50 PM BST
with injury factored in if the race was tomorrow they must have him at about 1.4 to win it if hye gets thewre
Report Dado Bear August 27, 2012 11:22 PM BST
Fair point Foyles but in its prep race it lengthened when asked a question, albeit in a race it was expected to win. Henderson said straight after the Supreme it would win the following years Arkle and there is little debate it travelled like the best horse till outstayed up the hill. The horse certainly strengthened last year and with nautural improvement it would appear there is more to come.  Finians will surely be stepped up in trip this year and do we really see a heavily raced 11 year old coming back to win a champion chase having been turned over as a 10 year old ?

In all honesty I cant believe that Sanctuaire is put up as alternative as I think it is not in the same league as Sprinter.  I have never seen a novice take a shape like Sprinter does at a fence. No doubt there are better judges than me and 5/4 may not represent massive value to some.  To my eyes, its taking 5/4 on the horse getting there because unless something does a Master Minded and appears from nowhere there is only 1 winner of the Queem Mum in March and it aint Sanctuaire or Finians Rainbow or Sizing E.  This game is all about opinions and one mans banker is another lay.

This will be off short in March but it is nearly 7 months, with current interest rates I would rather take my chances on a 125% profit.  Roll on March !!
Report strontium August 28, 2012 12:40 PM BST
Dado, you're probably right - but you're not certainly right, which is why we bother running the races rather than just handing over the cup and the money now.
Report FOYLESWAR August 29, 2012 11:51 AM BST
yeah dado fair point and as said before sprinter sacre is the most likely winner at this stage but on official ratings he is only 3lb clear of sanctuaire , official ratings are not set in stone but are a fair  guide imo,sprinter sacre may prove to be exceptional and a class apart ,we know he can travel jump and quicken and get 2 miles at cheltenham ! the one thing we are unsure about is what will happen when(or if ) his jumping is put under pressure  and he is forced into a battle over the last 3 or 4 fences what will he find ? he is easy on the eye jumping fences and cruising around  on the bridal and he looks impressive but jumping fences under pressure is a different ball game, he may well be up to it  but untill then we dont know.

  for sure ,but in the tingle creek is when  we may find out .
am already on sanctuaire at around 14 on here and happy with that but all about opinions . good luck
Report duffy August 30, 2012 3:18 PM BST
couldn't possibly have sanctuaire as any sort of challenge myself, think 9/2 is a good price, don't think SS will run in the victor chandler, more likely to miss that and take in the game spirit.
Report bluebirdfan August 31, 2012 10:22 AM BST
I'm on Sanctuaire at 66/1 but he won't get near SS, he is the best horse I've seen
Report strontium August 31, 2012 12:01 PM BST
I understand the anti-Sanctuaire camp because he was such a dog as a hurdler. However, chasing seems to be the making of him. He absolutely flew round Sandown in 2 of his 3 chases (after excelling at Exeter in the first) and any novice that can do that should be taken seriously. Sprinter almost certainly is a (much) better horse, but don't take it for granted. If I had Sanctuarie at 66/1 I'd be delighted - an excellent trading opportunity at the very least.

I'm also puzzled how anyone can say SS is the best horse they've seen - he was only a novice last season, not the best chaser to run last season and possibly not even the best novice to run last season (thinking about Sir des Champs and Flemenstar who also both have enormous potential).
Report FOYLESWAR August 31, 2012 10:55 PM BST
i also think that sanctuaire is very well suited to fences and also although he dissapointed on occasions over hurdles he was held up in most of those and it looks like  that he is better suited blasting off in front ,he seemed to pull in his hurdle races and ruby held on to him and he could have sulked ! certainly looks  a different horse over fences with front running tactics .
Report buddeliea September 1, 2012 7:25 AM BST
Best horse ive seenLaugh

Look,he looks an exceptional talent,but lets wait till he starts beating horses out of novice company!!

As for Sanctuaire,lively challenger for sure,and that Sandown display was as impressive a 2m performance i saw from the novices last season.
Report festivalfanatic September 1, 2012 8:35 AM BST
Maybe bluebirdfan is a young lad and hasn't seen many chasers!

I'm an old soak and have followed jump racing for 40 years. I've never seen a 2 mile novice chaser jump better. For a big horse, he is incredibly nimble and athletic.

180 OR rating by the end of the season? That's entirely feasible. That still wouldn't make him the best but would put him up in the ether. Sanctuaire was impressive at Sandown on only his 3rd start over fences but his racing style will suit the monster down to the ground.
Report Howdi September 1, 2012 4:17 PM BST
I dont think saying SS is the best youve seen is that daft - he may be the best any of us have seen in 2 years time.

BEAST AND A HALF
Report Masterminded September 1, 2012 6:32 PM BST
Sprinter Sacre already ranks right up there in the best 2 mile chasers I have seen. He's already probably the best jumper I have seen and if he continues to progress he may be the best 2 miler ever. I mean he went through the whole of last season without coming off the bridle. Against novices or not he was a novice and took on experienced rivals in the Game Spirit and he hasn't come out of 2nd gear.
Report racingguru September 1, 2012 7:45 PM BST
SS for me hasn't done a rating remotely close to what Masterminded did in his infamous QM rout but then again MM never did it again. For me if SS proves to find significant amounts off the bridle then he could be really very special but at this stage I reserve judgement as IMO Al Ferof was running a big one in the Arkle till that blunder. Not saying he would have won but it would have been interesting to see how SS would have fared if his biggest rival ran a clean race.
Report strontium September 1, 2012 8:14 PM BST
He could become one of the best - he's loaded with potential - but it's tough to say he is already. He just hasn't beaten that much yet, which isn't his fault because he scared a lot of horses off and he was a novice, but it does hold down the rating he deserves so far. He was outstanding in Game Spirit but against journeyman opposition. He'll have to start hammering the likes of Finians Rainbow and Sizing Europe to get his rating up (which he may well do). But that's all about the future. To say he's already the equal or better of Master Minded, Kauto Star or Denman (to name just three very recent examples) is not credible.
Report Howdi September 1, 2012 9:14 PM BST
^^^ good post but he could take everyones conkers yet. Love to see him trounce the big boys gonna be very hard to rate then by Mr Smith.
Report duffy September 3, 2012 1:44 PM BST
Sanctuaire reminds me of a type that will look good when it all goes to plan but his back story shows him to be fickle and untrustworthy, that sandown run sticks in peoples minds....we see those type of performances every now and then that get people confused don't we......mon parrain at sandown was one and tataniano at aintree a couple of seasons back was another.....sanctuaires run was another of those types.
Report duffy September 3, 2012 1:49 PM BST
I agree,we don't need to be proclaiming SS as the greatest just yet do we, the great thing about it is that unlike the flat he'll have every chance to prove it over the next couple of years, one snag, certainly in the immediate future is that he is going to be hit over the head with the "what's he beat" tag as finian's wasn't a good queen mum winner and sizing is probably past his best, other than that , it's looking a bit thin.
Report strontium September 3, 2012 2:46 PM BST
Interesting posts Duffy and I'd had similar thoughts. Sanctuaire did at least put in two good rounds at Sandown but they could be unrepresentative (and were late in the season which can also be misleading). Tatatiano's an interesting one though - he put in a very good performance in his one run last season (at Chepstow) before getting injured again so I'm not certain his Aintree star performance was a complete one off. I was disappointed he couldn't make another run last season.

I suspect you're right with Sprinter Sacre and "what has he beat?" (even if/when he beats Finians and Sizing). I can see that becoming a long and fruitless debate on here.... the 2 milers could well  be a thin division. For that reason, let's hope Sanctuaire and Tataiano (and perhaps Edgardo Sol) are up to being a yardstick for the mighty Sprinter Sacre.

Out of interest, I didn't buy the RP today - does anyone know which one Nicholls was talking up as pontentially one of his best 2 milers ever (a big claim, if true)?
Report FOYLESWAR September 3, 2012 3:16 PM BST
nicholls says that sanctuaire is hopefully up there with the best 2 milers we have had ,on a mark of 66 he is the highest rated novice chaser we have had for 21 years ,since swithing to fences his form has been extraordinary in that not even grade 2 2 milers have been able to match strides or jump with him .
nicholls outlined a light but agressive campaign centered around the tingle creek and qmcc "we think he is best fresh so straight to sandown then we will keep him fresh for the festival ,he is hugely talented but enigmatic so we will have to keep his mind right .
Report duffy September 3, 2012 4:19 PM BST
he is hugely talented but enigmatic so we will have to keep his mind right .

See, that comment would put me off right away,it tells us that his good performances from last season were achieved without his old bad habits being eradicated, you'd have to be very worried that at some point when they don't get it 100% right, he'll let his supporters down big time, certainly having SS running upsides him him will test his resolution for sure.
Report FOYLESWAR September 3, 2012 4:38 PM BST
having watched his hurdle races my thoughts were that sanctuaire didnt like being held onto ,seemed to be pulling and wanted to go  and got moody when he didnt get his own way ,blasting off in front suits him ,just giving him a few races may  keep him keen . whether he can give sprinter a race we will have to wait and see , but we wont have to wait too long now ..........tingle creek on the agenda for both of em it seems .
Report duffy September 3, 2012 4:42 PM BST
I'm sure that if henderson could create the perfect horse to have in a race for SS it would be sanctuaire.
Report strontium September 3, 2012 4:44 PM BST
Thanks for posting that Foyles.
Report wellchief September 3, 2012 5:35 PM BST
I've had little nibbles at Tataniano - at 70's to win and 14's to place.  If he lines up in the race, I would definitely lay off the win part, but I think the place bet will look quite good - he is only rate 2 lbs below Sanctuaire; one is 9.4 and one is 75?  I know injury is factored into his price, but imo there shouldn't be such a discrepency between them - especially if there is good ground in March.

He was 3/1 second fav on the eve of last year's Tingle Creek, with Ruby booked for the ride.
Report FOYLESWAR September 3, 2012 6:42 PM BST
momentum gathers when we have what could be a special horse on our hands, and peoples judgement can get clouded by the the hype that increases after every race that he wins i am in no way knocking the horse and sprinter sacre could be just that a superstar ! and the superlatives were flying about on here and on the racing grapevine last season, and no doubt they will be  this season as well ,it seems that he is already past the post for the tingle creek and  champion chase in many peoples eyes  although there are some more level headed posters here who reserve judgement , he may well win the tingle creek .  champion ect and we all want to see a one off true champion over jumps ,even more so now we have a frankel lighting up the flat ,it would be great to have a similar household name to take over from kauto star .
there was a similar situation regarding hurricane fly last year ,only had to turn up to win the champion hurdle  one poster even quoted "'hurricane fly turns up 80 per cant fit for the champion hurdle the others are toast ",we all know what happened there . may be iam pocket talking having opposed sprinter for the champion but untill he proves it in a battle there has to be a doubt for me .we may see what he can do in the tingle creek ,if all the main protaganists turn out for the sandown race it should be a cracker ............watching sanc sizing and sprinter and possibly cue card and menorah taking the railway fences at speed will be some sight ...........and not too long to wait till the real racing starts ............bring it on !
Report racingguru September 3, 2012 8:19 PM BST
Ah Tataniano ....leaves a bitter taste in my mouth. Think I overrated his Aintree win a bit but nonetheless thought he'd be Ruby's mount for the QM for the future. 2 years of ante post no shows leaves me frustrated about him as really don't know what to think.

Yes, he seems fragile, needs fast ground and takes very little racing but has done some big ratings in my books. Think it will be a big bet first time up and then give up on it.
Report R Carver September 4, 2012 6:55 PM BST
Racing, I too was very taken (probably overly so) by his Aintree run - electric, no other word for it! If he is over his problems I think he is good, but i fear too much water has gone under the bridge to reach te top now. FTO could be the moment, I agree.

--

Re Sanctuaire, I do not have anything more to add than what I added on Whitbread day - the form of Sanctuaire's last run is seriously debatable IMO, but he will be razor sharp (no point Nicholls piching up half fit against the champion elect, he needs to know where he stands, and on a 'home' track, why not?), has strong track form, appears to love the track and acts well round the chase course there and front runs (at Sandown those are a good advantage IMO). The only concern IMO for SS is that BJG does not give Sanctuaire too much rope. I do not think he will let that happen so I think SS fans should be ok.
Report racingguru September 4, 2012 9:48 PM BST
R Carver - on sheer ratings I don't have Sanctuaire too far behind SS at present but I'm pretty certain Sanctuaire won't find at all and needs to have things his way (which will normally happen) and SS (may find but not a given by any means). Always the chance that SS bowling in front puts pressure on SS jumping. Be interesting to see.
Report racingguru September 4, 2012 9:48 PM BST
Sanct bowling along in front that is.
Report duffy September 4, 2012 11:44 PM BST
Don't think there is any need for concern over sanctuaire getting too much rope, SS himself is never too keen on letting anything get too far away from him is he, never mind the jockey.Grin,as said earlier, sanctuaire is perfect for SS, he will be his very own bullet trainGrin
Report shockster September 5, 2012 9:11 AM BST
Let's just say Sanctuaire beats SS at Sandown in the Tingle Creek.  From the majority of comments on here, I will be reading that Sandown is Sanctuaires track and Cheltenham will be different.  The excuses will start!!!!

I too believe SS is the better horse, but Sanctuaire looks a serious animal too and should he beat him at Sandown barring accidents, don't be too surprised if he confirms the form.
Report strontium September 5, 2012 11:20 AM BST
That's a good post Shockster. These superstar novices often do get found out - how often does it happen in the Supreme? Grands Crus was being talked about in a similar way in the middle of last season (and still would be if he hadn't had his RSA blip).

Also, this is National Hunt racing - even the greatest get beaten quite a lot. Kauto Star lost 12 of 31 over fences. Denman 9 of 19, Dessie 36 of 70, Master Minded 10 of 25, Best Mate 5 of 16. I can't find chase numbers for Mill House but he lost 18 of 34 in all racing. Even Arkle lost 4 of 26 steeplechases.

I.e. even horses we rightly regard as great or even all-time-great only won 50-60% of their races over fences over the course of their careers (the freak Arkle excepted). On that basis alone, Sprinter Sacre is far more likely than not to lose at some point, probably to lose quite a few.
Report festivalfanatic September 5, 2012 12:34 PM BST
The hype surrounding SS since he set foot on a racecourse for the first time has been extraordinary. Apart from his form - doesn't come much better than champion 2 mile novice chaser in a schooling session - Hendo can barely contain himself when talking about the horse - he goes even more misty eyed than when Jessie's around.  He's never actually said 'he's the best I've ever had' but I suspect that's what he feels. What did BJG say? 'Jockeys wait a whole career for a horse like this'. Frankly, I don't think you can put Grand Crus in the same bracket in terms of hype (or class). They're not machines and they all have off days, as indeed SS did on his novice hurdle debut at Ascot. Sanctuaire might beat him at Sandown - I wouldn't care to bet on it!
Report strontium September 5, 2012 1:56 PM BST
FF, I'd be reluctant to pick specific races he might lose or specific horses who might beat him. My point is that, even if he is one of the very, very best steeplechasers there has ever been we can expect him to lose 1/4 - 1/3 of his steeplechases. When great horses get beaten it's almost always by horses who are objectively far inferior to them, yet it happens frequently (as my earlier figures show).
Report duffy September 5, 2012 2:56 PM BST
Yes, but you can't oppose him on that theory, or you might as well throw all debate out of the window because that applies to everything at some point, certainly in NH anyway.
Report shockster September 5, 2012 3:12 PM BST
Most people on here firmly believe that SS is the best 2m Chaser around including myself and Strontium.  To put it bluntly we are saying he is over hyped though and it might not be as big a shock as many people would have you believe if he gets beat. Apologies Stront if I am putting words in your mouth.  I will not be laying SS, but also doubt I shall back him at likely prices.
Report duffy September 5, 2012 3:20 PM BST
It is quite plausible that the horse doesn't need to be anything like as good as many think he may well be in order to dominant the 2 mile division, with the "enigmatic" sanctuaire as one of his main contenders at this early stage there may be a good example of it right there.
Report strontium September 5, 2012 3:25 PM BST
Shockster, that's fair.

Duffy, I agree the (very hard) trick is to find when they'll be beaten, though it also suggests (crudely) that even great steeplechasers are unbackable at 1/3 or shorter (perhaps even 1/2). It also suggests that (as Shockster says) it will be no surprise as/when SS gets beaten by something. You've sort of summed up my point yourself - essentially all steeplechasers get beaten; it will be astonishing if Sprinter Sacre doesn't.
Report wellchief September 5, 2012 4:43 PM BST
With the initial post being about Sprinter being unbeaten for the season; I would be very very surprised if there is anything out there  that can beat him (baring Sprinter falling, being brought down or being injured; which is a big if, I admit and it's not a bet for me)

If you are talking about an unbeaten career, that is something completely different.  There could be some young superstar lurking around in France that no one has heard of, and as all horses, age will catch up with him sooner or later and will he'll lose a bit of speed.  I don't think anyone would back him to never get beaten.

He is about to enter the peak period of his career, and it will take a serious animal to get by him imo.
Report strontium September 5, 2012 5:22 PM BST
WellC, there's a certain logic to that, but the surprising thing is that very good horses get beaten over fences by quite ordinary ones.

Here are the horses that beat Kauto Star between 2005-10, his peak years: Mistral de la Cour (who?? OK, KS fell and was remounted); Monkerhostin; Newmill (KS fell); Monet's Garden; Denman; Our Vic; Snoopy Loopy (KS unseated); Imperial Commander (KS fell).

Aside from Denman and perhaps Imperial, none of those were superstars and some were really rather ordinary (though admittedly usually when KS didn't complete) - i.e. most of those defeats were by horses who would have been written off as not good enough before the race by most people.

If you say Sprinter Sacre has an 85% (Arkle-like) chance of winning each race, he has a 48% chance of losing at least once in a 4 race campaign (56% in 5 races). If you give him a Kauto Star like strike rate (66%) the chance of losing at least once in 4 races is 80%; with a Denman like strike rate (50%) it's 94%. I.e. it would not be a surprise at all if SS loses at least once this season - though the individual horse that beats him &/or the race where it happens is not obviously predictable.
Report wellchief September 5, 2012 6:01 PM BST
That's a fair mate, and well researched too.

From my point of view, as long as he gets his head in front at Cheltenham in March, that's all I care about, because I've got him at a nice price before his Arkle win.

I doubt that I'll back him at all this season because he will almost certainly be too short, but there's no way I'd back against him.
Report wellchief September 5, 2012 6:25 PM BST
* fair point, sorry

To busy rushing to have my tea Happy
Report bluebirdfan September 6, 2012 10:22 AM BST
Nice to see Nicholl's confirming Sanctuaire will head for the Champion Chase, I had my fingers burnt on his Ghizao last year though when he didn't train on so still can't see past the Sprinter beast yet
Report buddeliea September 6, 2012 12:57 PM BST
racingguru
01 Sep 12 19:45
SS for me hasn't done a rating remotely close to what Masterminded did in his infamous QM rout but then again MM never did it again. For me if SS proves to find significant amounts off the bridle then he could be really very special but at this stage I reserve judgement as IMO Al Ferof was running a big one in the Arkle till that blunder. Not saying he would have won but it would have been interesting to see how SS would have fared if his biggest rival ran a clean race.


Yep,totally agree with all that RG.
Report rhinestone September 6, 2012 4:17 PM BST
Plain
Report RN1986 May 13, 2013 8:12 PM BST
I got paid out today.

Happy
Report Howdi May 18, 2013 11:55 PM BST
FECK ME IF Carlsberg DID ANTE POST WAGERS
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