Cheltenham Festival
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Sprinter Sacre unbeaten for the season
Sprinter Sacre unbeaten for the season
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The hype surrounding SS since he set foot on a racecourse for the first time has been extraordinary. Apart from his form - doesn't come much better than champion 2 mile novice chaser in a schooling session - Hendo can barely contain himself when talking about the horse - he goes even more misty eyed than when Jessie's around. He's never actually said 'he's the best I've ever had' but I suspect that's what he feels. What did BJG say? 'Jockeys wait a whole career for a horse like this'. Frankly, I don't think you can put Grand Crus in the same bracket in terms of hype (or class). They're not machines and they all have off days, as indeed SS did on his novice hurdle debut at Ascot. Sanctuaire might beat him at Sandown - I wouldn't care to bet on it!
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FF, I'd be reluctant to pick specific races he might lose or specific horses who might beat him. My point is that, even if he is one of the very, very best steeplechasers there has ever been we can expect him to lose 1/4 - 1/3 of his steeplechases. When great horses get beaten it's almost always by horses who are objectively far inferior to them, yet it happens frequently (as my earlier figures show).
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Yes, but you can't oppose him on that theory, or you might as well throw all debate out of the window because that applies to everything at some point, certainly in NH anyway.
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Most people on here firmly believe that SS is the best 2m Chaser around including myself and Strontium. To put it bluntly we are saying he is over hyped though and it might not be as big a shock as many people would have you believe if he gets beat. Apologies Stront if I am putting words in your mouth. I will not be laying SS, but also doubt I shall back him at likely prices.
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It is quite plausible that the horse doesn't need to be anything like as good as many think he may well be in order to dominant the 2 mile division, with the "enigmatic" sanctuaire as one of his main contenders at this early stage there may be a good example of it right there.
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Shockster, that's fair.
Duffy, I agree the (very hard) trick is to find when they'll be beaten, though it also suggests (crudely) that even great steeplechasers are unbackable at 1/3 or shorter (perhaps even 1/2). It also suggests that (as Shockster says) it will be no surprise as/when SS gets beaten by something. You've sort of summed up my point yourself - essentially all steeplechasers get beaten; it will be astonishing if Sprinter Sacre doesn't. |
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With the initial post being about Sprinter being unbeaten for the season; I would be very very surprised if there is anything out there that can beat him (baring Sprinter falling, being brought down or being injured; which is a big if, I admit and it's not a bet for me)
If you are talking about an unbeaten career, that is something completely different. There could be some young superstar lurking around in France that no one has heard of, and as all horses, age will catch up with him sooner or later and will he'll lose a bit of speed. I don't think anyone would back him to never get beaten. He is about to enter the peak period of his career, and it will take a serious animal to get by him imo. |
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WellC, there's a certain logic to that, but the surprising thing is that very good horses get beaten over fences by quite ordinary ones.
Here are the horses that beat Kauto Star between 2005-10, his peak years: Mistral de la Cour (who?? OK, KS fell and was remounted); Monkerhostin; Newmill (KS fell); Monet's Garden; Denman; Our Vic; Snoopy Loopy (KS unseated); Imperial Commander (KS fell). Aside from Denman and perhaps Imperial, none of those were superstars and some were really rather ordinary (though admittedly usually when KS didn't complete) - i.e. most of those defeats were by horses who would have been written off as not good enough before the race by most people. If you say Sprinter Sacre has an 85% (Arkle-like) chance of winning each race, he has a 48% chance of losing at least once in a 4 race campaign (56% in 5 races). If you give him a Kauto Star like strike rate (66%) the chance of losing at least once in 4 races is 80%; with a Denman like strike rate (50%) it's 94%. I.e. it would not be a surprise at all if SS loses at least once this season - though the individual horse that beats him &/or the race where it happens is not obviously predictable. |
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That's a fair mate, and well researched too.
From my point of view, as long as he gets his head in front at Cheltenham in March, that's all I care about, because I've got him at a nice price before his Arkle win. I doubt that I'll back him at all this season because he will almost certainly be too short, but there's no way I'd back against him. |
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* fair point, sorry
To busy rushing to have my tea  |
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Nice to see Nicholl's confirming Sanctuaire will head for the Champion Chase, I had my fingers burnt on his Ghizao last year though when he didn't train on so still can't see past the Sprinter beast yet
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racingguru
01 Sep 12 19:45 SS for me hasn't done a rating remotely close to what Masterminded did in his infamous QM rout but then again MM never did it again. For me if SS proves to find significant amounts off the bridle then he could be really very special but at this stage I reserve judgement as IMO Al Ferof was running a big one in the Arkle till that blunder. Not saying he would have won but it would have been interesting to see how SS would have fared if his biggest rival ran a clean race. Yep,totally agree with all that RG. |
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I got paid out today.
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FECK ME IF Carlsberg DID ANTE POST WAGERS
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