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He's got a very juicy handicap mark.
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So has Hidden Cyclone. Both HC and FoF 20lb below SDC???
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If you watch the race SDC isn't given a single crack of the whip to win that race and he is giving them weight. SDC is a big lazy horse he'll beat a 140 rated horse the same distance he'll beat a 160 rated horse. Don't get fooled by proximity of beaten horses. SDC just does enough.
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CVB, I don't think he'll give Hidden Cyclone 20lb and a beating.
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Surely the run at Xmas was irelevant anyway as the horse wasn't right? Shark said afterwards he had a problem in the yard.
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Time of that Leopardstown race was quite poor, handicap mark of 137 might be about right for FoF, he's an 8yo, it was 5th chase already and he had been slaughtered by Last Instalment and Join Together in previous starts and was a pretty average hurdler. Hidden Cyclone is another matter, a year younger, it was only his second chase start and only his second defeat under rules, he is entitled to improve a lot and his mark of 136 looks a fantastic start point for next season(his time when he won on his chase debut, beating Nearest The Pin, was also very solid, 5 l/mile quicker than the SDC race according to Raceform).
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VikingRidge
19 Apr 12 11:46 Joined: 10 Jan 12 | Topic/replies: 251 | Blogger: VikingRidge's blog I love Flemenstar and have to be with him for the Gold Cup, breeding suggests he will stay the trip. Has a fantastic cruising speed, and jumps quite literally for fun. have to agree with this comment, it's time for the new stars to shine. i'm having £2 a day on flemenstar, for as long as i have money in my account. |
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CVB, I don't think he'll give Hidden Cyclone 20lb and a beating.
He wont have to, as SDC will never run in a handicap again, he's a grade 1 horse. I like Hidden Cyclone, hope he runs in a handicap first before stepping up in grade |
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I Like Flemenstar too, but trip and ground are 2 questions he needs to answer. Price makes no appeal at the moment. Annoyed at myself for not taking the 25/1 when it was available as I had a big bet on him for Powers Gold Cup, what did I think would happen after he won that, D'oh
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I'd be optimistic Flemenstar will get 3 m because of the way he handles 2 1/2 m on poor ground. The CGC trip is a step into the unknown though. He also seems to handle good ground based on the Powers Gold Cup. A very exciting horse for me.
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Agree, he'll get the trip imo based on breeding. It's the ground that worries me. Pandorama for example was solely a soft ground horse and ended up injured running in Gold Cup on quick.
Flemenstar probably won get goodish ground until Chelts unless maybe in Lexus at Christmas. That'd be my worry. SDC for example has won at Cheltenham twice. |
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Yes, with the doubts current prices seem about right.
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Was freakishly fast ground that Gold Cup though, Imperial Commander was also injured that day and he was fine on genuinely good ground. Flemenstar seems to have been fine on genuinely good ground too at Fairyhouse.
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They could always race in Britain to see if he handles decent ground. A trip over for the Argento might be wise anyway to see if he can hanlde the travel and the course.
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I'd like to see a strong Irish challenge this year for the Hennessy. 3m2f and the most valuable handicap behind the National all season. Denman won off 161 and 174, therefore top horses can win it. Good trial and Gold Cup 2nd ran in it this year TGB. Flemenstar 163??? Hidden Cyclone 141??? Nicholls always targets the race. Usually a cracker, although last season was a little disappointing.
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I think it would also be a good race for Weapons Amnesty (152 when last rated) and Jessies Dream (151) if they're fit. Funnily enough though, horses who've done well in the Hennessey in the last 15-odd years have a lousy record at the Festival (except the mighty Denman). It would be good to see a top class field - it's one of the highlights of the season.
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WA If he ever races again would be very interesting off that mark if fitness was assured. JD, I simply can't have that generation of novices. The worst ever!!!!! Based on what the rest of his generation have done, the handicap mark looks a bit high.
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Shock, I expect you're right about JD but he was probably the best of that bunch and he hasn't had a chance to fail (if you know what I mean). WA might be dropped a few pounds after 30 months off in which case he'd have a stunning mark at anywhere near full fitness. It's probably dreaming that we'll see him again though.
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I'd have thought Giggs would have enough Ammo to target this race, if only to see where they stand against this side of the Irish sea. Can't believe I am trying to second guess, what they will be doing in 7 months. Wishing my life away.
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Yes but Giggy lost owners title this year to JP and they'll want to win that back so might keep most horses home bar maybe sending FL to Kempton for King George.
Shock I love the Hennessy it's one of my fav races, Denmans 2nd win will always be the best race ever for me, hands down, no contest magic moment. It'll be a cracking renewal this year with the wealth of improving 2nd season chasers. I'm already nailed to the mast on Invictus who'll be on an excellent mark. Problem with Irish horses going over is English Handicapper is harsh on our horses, he wants ours to stay home so English trainers get the wins and prize money. So we usualy go up 6-8lbs on our mark when we race in England. |
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where will knockfierna go next year?
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CVB, they may enter to see what mark they get over here. Just so many like for like horses, it seems a no brainer to me. A lot depends on the going and yes on Reynoldstown form Invictus does look reasonably handicapped. Is he ok as off since, plenty of time though to get fit. Helpston from the Reynoldstown will be interesting next season off 140 IMO.
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Good call re Invictus (151). He is a beautiful looking horse. I like him loads, he jumps beautifully. My only concern is the speed he shows. He looks very classy. I just wonder if more of a slogger (a high class one, like Bob's) may be one for the Hennessy. I also wonder if Kingy may just take a softer option FTO (though that mark looks too good to waste potentially).
CVB - do you think he is a genuine CGC horse? |
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I love Weapons Amnesty, even though when he won his two Cheltenham races I never backed him. I backed Pride of Dulcote in the Albert Bartlett and Punchestowns in his RSA win. I have backed him for the Gold Cup the past two years though when he hasn't turned up, so won't be doing that again this year.
I also think his handicap mark is very workable, but my only reservation would be that he seems to run a good few pounds below his best away from Cheltenham. I remember he wasn't particularly impressive at Newcastle, got beat in a beginners chase at Punchestown and beaten twice at Leopardstown before his RSA win. There might be valid reasons for all of them, but I think he is a different animal at Cheltenham where he has ran to, or above, his mark each time - if the Hennesy was there then I'd back him in a heartbeat. |
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Well RC he did do it well and grind the victory at Ascot, he looked like a perfect RSA horse, a dour stayer. That's why I think he's tailor made for the Hennessy. He should be suited to the Gold Cup trip imo, but he'd have to be winning the Hennessy off 151 if he's ever going to have the chance of winning the Gold Cup.
Do I think he'll be good enough to win a Gold Cup, gut says no, but I need to see him run again to make my mind up. |
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Well Chief, WA has always needed good ground which he gets at Cheltenham but not in ireland.
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It should be interesting to see how Invictus develops next yr. The thing i love most about that horse is his jumping. He has incredible scope and exuberance and that will certainly stand him in good stead. It may also be to his advantage that his did not end up having a hard season.
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FL was purchased to win the Gold Cup, I can't see him in the Ryanair
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They'll have one or two in the Ryanair (their race of course) with somewhere between 3 and 7 high quality staying chaasers to choose from.
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Cant be the only one hoping Noel Meade runs Pandorama in the Welsh National?
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GOLD Cup hero Imperial Commander yesterday took a significant step on the road to making a racing comeback, writes Jonathan Herbert.
He was brought in from a field to begin road work at Kevin and Eyssen Ross' Mount Top Stud just outside Belfast. The exercise is aimed at building up his fitness before he goes back into training with Nigel Twiston-Davies at his stable in Guiting Power. Imperial Commander has been recuperating at Mount Top Stud, where he has spent summers throughout his career, since sustaining a season-ending tendon injury in September. Ian Robinson, spokesman for owners Our Friends In The North, said the 2010 Gold Cup winner's chances of racing again looked bright. "He looks fantastic and scans on the leg have come back clear twice," he said. "He's had a good long break and fingers crossed everything will go to plan. "We'll take it step by step and get a lot of road work into him so the tendon is nice and strong. "There's no reason why he won't race again because the leg has come back fine and everyone looking after him has done a fantastic job." He said plans for Imperial Commander will become clearer after Richard Bevis, his regular work rider, puts him through his paces at Twiston-Davies' stable. If Twiston-Davies and Bevis are happy with the 11-year-old, his first big target will be the Betfair Chase at Haydock on November 24, which he won in 2010. |
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That's good news - it will be great to see the old boy back. I can't see him troubling the judge in the Gold Cup at his age, but hopefully he'll have one or two glorious days to come.
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NTD good trainer no doubt but what does he do to them that they get serious injuries. Jim Old is the worst no doubt but he's not really a relevant trainer anyhow. Just alarms me that seems to be every year you see a dozen or so of NTD's coming off 2+ year breaks.
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Think thats unfair about NTD imo. He has a very hard gallops, uphill quite steeply, this will suit some horses better than others and probably bring out injuries in horses that are already there but I wouldnt say it causes them. IC injury wasnt caused by him as he is just a fundamentally unsound horse, NTD has actually done incredibly well to get him to win anything never mind a CGC. Wont know anything about the horse until he comes back into proper training and shows he still wants to be a racehorse but if thats the case IMO 66/1 for the CGC is still worth a cheeky £2 e/w :)
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Mossey Joe - Beaten today over hurdles and beaten last time when fell by Sir Des Champs on heavy may well improve when he gets proper good going again. All best form is on good and his first 3 chases (IMO would have won easily when finished 5th when all but fell)looked classy. Connections were prepared to take on SDC on unfavourable ground and is a massive price for the Gold Cup which is usually good going. Has to improve but at the price I've had a go. Hard to see it getting the going in Ireland though. Would be intersting for the Hennessy going dependent. Can win after a lay off.
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:) machine I tell you
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So whats Nicholls doing with AFerof and Silv Conti??
Are they both going for GC?? Personally think both have proved they should,SC cos hes beating Gold Cup horses and is an improver,and AF cos he loves the place,is also improving and looks like he will stay,although admit it aint definite. Looks like AF is going for KG,,so that should tell them if he stays or not,although personally i aint sure Kempton will suit him like Cheltenham does. Anyone heard anything?,i was at Ascot yesterday so have missed any interviews,in particular in relation to SC at haydock. |
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silvino def going for gold cup ,possibly straight to chelt,no real mention of al ferof going gold ,reckon they will keep options open and see about al ferof after king george . plus side is that nicholls has run more than 2 in gold cup before hales is a strong character and knows that you dont get many gold cup horses and like any owner surely want to give his horse a go at the ultimate chasing prize .
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cheers Foyles.
yep,hopefully he proves he stays,and owner should have an influence knowing him!! if he does stay,hes a proper Gold Cup horse,no doubt. |
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Hopefully Nicholls doesn't waste Al Ferof's talent by putting him in the Ryanair
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