I don't think anyones daft enough to rate this years race.

This year's Gold Cup was just a "normal" Gold Cup, similar to around 40 of the last 45. RPRs in the 172-178 range is the norm not the exception.  Next year's probably will be too so the course specialist TGB has to be considered as he clearly has that sort of RPR in his range over that C and D.

The Gold Cup is littered with average horses who manage to run into the places in the Gold Cup.

Long Run ran well below his best and I'm sure there must be reasons. He can bounce back, while The Giant Bolster just ran that one good race and there's no reason to believe he's going to be good enough next year.

This years Gold Cup was the worst for many years, it was given a rating in the 160's. I believe the horses next year like SDC and Bobs worth are better than that. I'd expect TGB to be nowhere in a good gold cup, he's only a 160s horse and rated as such.

Only Long Run from this years field has any chance of winning next year.

Thieves, I imagine his early problems are part of it. However he now sems to have sorted them out and he's put in his two best perfromances in his last 2 Cheltenham races. He does seem considerably better at Cheltenham than elsewhere (F1UU12 vs 1F724 - which doesn't tell the full story as the "away" 1 was his first chase at Worcester and the 2 was a four runner race, whereas the Cheltenham 2 was in a Gold Cup).

I'm somewhat ambivalent about his chances at this stage. If he continues his Cheltenham improvement he is a player (RPR 172 at the moment). On the other hand, he might have peaked - who knows? On balance, his price (40s here) is too big.

I just think this years Gold Cup was rubbish. 5 horses seperated by 10l says it all. Long Run has shown good form in the past winning grade 1s by good distances so he is the one horse who can bounce back imo.

As for the rest, most ran to form or just a few lbs above it. If they didn't then the whole field had to run 10lbs above their best.

Anyway time will tell, but I'd be utterly stunned if TGB even went close next year. He couldn't win the worse renewal in over a decade. Defo wont win with better horses next year.

He's the right price now at 33/1 imo. He'd need to show form in relation to the horses who he'll face in the Gold cup next season before we can know if that's a good or bad price. But I'd imagine he'd go for the Betfair Chase while Bobs Worth and Invictus will go for Hennessy.

I couldn't split the Irish vs the English to be honest.

At the moment, if you put a gun to my head I'd back an English winner because I think Bobs Worth and Long Run are more proven over staying trips around Cheltenham, and the Henderson Cheltenham factor as well.

However, the Irish look to have a really strong hand and the betting could look completely different in March.

Of the main players (imo), I suppose if you had £100 to dutch the Irish challenge of Sir Des Champs, First Lieutenant, Flemenstar and Last Instalment; if one of the four won your £100 would return £315. 

If you had the same £100 and dutched the main English challenge of Bobs Worth and Long Run, your £100 would return £495 - bigger payout but half the total of runners running for you. I honestly don't know what I'd do!

Actually, I do know.  If you had the £100 and dutched all 6 then you return £192 (10/11).  Don't think I've ever had 6 runners in a Gold Cup before

cvb, surely the 2006 race was worse?
1 Synchronised 2 The Giant Bolster 3 Long Run 4 Burton Port
against
1 War of Attrition 2 Hedgehunter 3 Forget The Past 4 L'Ami

I know the idiot official handicapper agrees with you but RPRs and other ratings don't.

Horses aren't machines bud, Long Run did not run to form that is clear. Also as one of the lads on our forum said the day of the Gold Cup, he was talking to a lad from Hendersons yard who told him Long run wasn't going to win, but he'll defo win next year. This was before the race too. Then Long Run runs flat.

Going on his form from that season and the season before he clearly ran below form. he was 17 lengths clear in King George, was giving 10lbs and a beating to a field at Newbury. Long Run doesn't suddenly go to no hoper because he ran a poor race. Remember Kauto being written off because of 2 defeats at end of 2008 season.

As for WOA he was always a good horse, he'd won a Grade 1 nov steeplechase at Punchestown, then won his first 2 starts. Then had a fine 2nd to Prolific Beef or Salmon in the Lexus before he won the Gold Cup. It's rare that runner ups go on the next season and win, Kauto Star aside. Most Gold Cup winners are running in it for the first time or have won it before.

I just think TGB will turn out to be one of those average horses who placed in a gold cup.

I think you're spot on Stront and the last remark is the telling one for me.  I think he will still win races, but not the Gold Cup.  Having said that, doubt he'll be 10/1 come the day.

of couse they aint machines CV,but i happen to think the Gold Cup werent as bad as you are saying,and giving Long Run as maybe an example of that,but i do take your points mate.
As for TGB,i agree he aint the most likely winner next year,but i do feel hes value at this stage compared to others,and would not put anyone off backing him at his current price.Hes nothing to prove as far as C and D is concerned,and hes certainly improved,maybe he has a bit more to come,its possible.

Midnight Chase aint a bad yardstick,beaten 30l by Synch this year,beaten 19l by Long Run last year.
Thats a bit of evidence to say this years Gold Cup was ok compared to last years,so maybe Long Run aint as good as we think he is,and that was pretty much his running in March.
In fact every race hes won i can find holes in.His KG win was courtesy of a bad error by Kauto,and the rest were non stayers,bit like his defeat to an ageing Kauto this season,all non stayers behind.
Yep,the more i look at it the more i think Long Run is overrated,and a lucky winner of a Gold Cup,beating horses way past their best.
I expect TGB to beat him if they meet again,and the difference in their respective prices is stupid.

I'm sorry bud but Long Run has beaten the entire field bar Kauto in 5 consecutive top class chases before the Gold Cup this year. You want to knock every one of those performances, while also ignoring the season performances of Synch, TGB & TFR which shows they are 150s and 160s horses. Then in the Gold Cup, believe Long Run runs to form and all these horses improve nearly a stone. All in the same race.

That to me is rather far fetched.

We know Midnight Chase didn't run his race, that's obvious. Sure he won the Argento well in Jan then suddenly gets beat 20l by TFR in Gold Cup, that's a 34l turnaround if we believe he ran to the same form. You need some consistency, say TFR has up to his best which is 160 in the race that puts Synch on 169. Which would mean TGB improved from when the met in Jan, to be around 167.

This is all very easy to rate. Why does Long Run go from 10l+ beatings of Burton Port, TGB, TFR etc... to being inferior by at least 10lb when he runs in Gold Cup.

It's very very clear and easy to rate race for me. Synch 169 winner. His 8.5l beating of Rubi Light from Lexus shows, as Rubi was beaten 13l on Sat. There is no form line to believe the Gold Cup was anything but a race full of 160s horses and a mid 170s horse who rant 10lbs bellow his best.

Thats ok mate,its all just summising and opinion,and as always you put up a good case.
I just feel that Long Run came along at the perfect time to beat Kauto and Denman,and his KG races have included a fair few non stayers.
As for others running in the Gold Cup,well thats where they would have trained to peak,and where i prefer to judge them.TGB improved all season and peaked there,TFR got steadily better and peaked there,as did Synchronised.
Burton Port came off a long lay off at Newbury so its a bit unknown as to how to rate his run at Cheltenham.

Anyway,maybe next season will tell us more.

All the best mate.

Yep, my point has been made a few times in this discussion. The winner is simply not from this years race, but if it did come from this years race it could only be Long Run.

As far back as I can remember the winner has either been running for the first time in the race, or has won it before (Kauto, Best Mate) or See More Business who was carried out the year before he won.

I can't remember the last winner to complete the Gold Cup the year before he won it.

So look elsewhere is what I've done. There will be plenty of top quality horses competing in the race for the first time.

I'm still clinging onto NH it's hard to wind down from it. I'll start an AP bets thread and post my bets before I sign off till the autumn.

Yeah, last roll of the dice

First Lieutenant is the value for me, can see him going off around the 6/1 mark on the day

He could be headed for Ryanair, especially given China Rock winning Punchy Gold Cup means mouse will have a Gold Cup runner already. O'Leary will probably have Sir Des Champs and Last Installment for Gold Cup anyway. Possibly Weapons Amnesty too.

Where will Fists of Fury Run? Only 1/2L behind SDC last time out?