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Duffy,if thats true about Walsh asking,then hes at fault cos the horse obviously was not capable of making it,and he should know,should'nt he??
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I've watched it again on slow mo. There is bound to be some better judges than me on here, but it looks as if AF changes his legs a stride or two before he takes off, his stride pattern is certainly 'off' on the approach, which may be why he met the fence on a wrong un. Perhaps due to the 'squeeze' that Duffy sees? So, perhaps I've been unkind to the horse. Those suggesting that SS took off from the same place certainly are, he was at least a length closer to the fence, although he did put in a huge jump in his own right and of course cleared it with some to spare.
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To me the case in closed here and Al Ferof is clearly not a 2 miler at the top level. When Ruby sends him to the front he is aiming to press on and make it a stamina test but Sprinter Sacre covered the move with incredible ease. Al Ferof was then taken out of his comfort zone (yet again over 2) and was forced into a mistake. Again I will say it is a lot easier to get over hurdles when you are flat out than fences.
Does anyone seriously believe on all known evidence without the mistake Al Ferof would of been bang with Sprinter jumping the last? |
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Thats the whole point Barnesy,whether you believe it or not,we will never know.
Comfort zone?? What evidence do you have that he was out of it,he made the mistake whilst still going well at the time.And no evidence that he was forced to make that mistake. Its just opinions that we have,and unfortunately none of us can prove them right or wrong for sure. |
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Barnesy,is the form of Finians the top level over 2m this season? Hes just won the QM,the top 2m race of the season,that evidence dont count mate?? AF about 3 lenghts behind him.
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Budde I don't want to get into a protracted argument with you as, to me, it seems you don't want to take on any points that don't fit with your own point of view. I will just give you the evidence I have used to make the conclusions in my last post that you disagree with:
a) to of beaten Sprinter Sacre or indeed got close to him he would of needed to be better than any Arkle winners in my living memory and indeed better than a few of the Queen Mother winners. b) every time I have seen him race over 2 miles he has been, to my eye, flat out along way from home. Ruby Walsh has seemingly concurred with this when discussing the horse. The Ascot race was over 2m1f on soft ground and seemed to much of a test on the day for eventual Queen Mother winner Finian's Rainbow, yet he was still outpaced at a crucial time. c) my own experience of national hunt racing tells me that horses are most likely to make a mistake under one of three scenarios - they are tired, have lost concentration or are going quicker than ideally they would want to be going. As you say we cannot know 'for sure' what would of happened, but given this evidence I am happy to conclude that the right horse won the race. |
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No, personally I rate the Arkle winner better than this year's Queen Mother. That is open to debate I guess.
What I am fairly sure of, as I eluded to in the last post, is that Finian's was below his best that day as conditions were not ideal. |
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No worries Barnesy,i really have no problem with differing opinions as long as mine are respected as well.
I do listen and take on board what you and others say,and i dont profess to know it all and accept i may be wrong.But as always its the horses and the races that tell us, not what we say on here,and unfortunately the way the race panned out,as far as I am concerned,nothings conclusive. Anyway,to be honest i am done with this now. I neede a rest from it all,see you around October time!! |
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Be lucky everyone.
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Fair enough, you clearly have a lot of love for this horse and I hope he can repay your faith again in a big one (over further imo!
) Good luck |
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I've watched it again on slow mo. There is bound to be some better judges than me on here, but it looks as if AF changes his legs a stride or two before he takes off, his stride pattern is certainly 'off' on the approach, which may be why he met the fence on a wrong un. Perhaps due to the 'squeeze' that Duffy sees? So, perhaps I've been unkind to the horse. Those suggesting that SS took off from the same place certainly are, he was at least a length closer to the fence, although he did put in a huge jump in his own right and of course cleared it with some to spare.
at last someone watching the same as me, i was begining to think there are a few on here with visual problems, because when i had it on pause AF was clearly in the air and SS 4 legs were clearly on the ground, seems we,ll see AF over 2 miles again this year |
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alleged....people are getting confused with taking off at the same time and taking off at the same place
AF did take off sooner..just, but if you looked at the spot that SS took off from and compared to the spot that AF took off from they would be pretty much at the same place......when they took off is immaterial. |
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SS was behind going into the fence...they weren't level.
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imo its jockey error he should have realised he was on a wrong stride asked the horse to shorten stride and pop the fence, yes he,d have lost a few lengths, but he,d still have an engine under him, instead of trying to long jump the 4th last, possibly injuring the horse and losing a dozen lengths
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Am pretty amazed by this ongoing debate - what does it matter where Sprinter and Al Ferof were in relation to the fence when they took off?
Sprinter Sacre is a sensational jumper and a sensational horse. Al Ferof made a bad mistake, which cost him any chance he may have had, because he is not as good a jumper as the winner. Isn't that all there is to it? |
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Al ferof asked to go quicker than he likes, hence mistake, he's a stayer and will end up in gold cup next year.
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NAFC in the Gold Cup,finnish
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Would not have framed in the Arkle even without the mistake.
Tomdeane, no I dont believe it is. THEY changed tactics for a reason despite saying the complete opposite before the race. Yes, the mistake was a bad one, but he never had the pace to get the beating of the others in the race anyway, you can see it in his running. Niggle,nudge,shove,push,kick ... yeah he is an arkle winner alright! |
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No major mistake today but he never looked like winning. Menorah confirmed the Arkle form, he did jump better and was the best backed horse in the race. Can't believe that AF isn't better than that but suspect it wil be next season before we find out.
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Time to accept he isn't as good as many of us thought IMO.
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Made a bad mistake at Chelt,and would not be the 1st horse to fail at Aintree after the festival.
Still think he will prove to be a good horse,particularly at Cheltenham where i think suits him best. Lets see next season. |
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I agree he will end up being good.... But short of top class I think.
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Horse looks one to be wary of imo...folded quicker than a cheap millets tent...people must remember how warm he got at cheltenham and this was another very tame performance...i'd say they will give him a breathing op but he now has big questions to answer in regards his attitude...time will tell us more but he cannot be bet with any confidence in the future...his form now with astracad and for non stop also doesn't look top class at all imo and i for one will be against him until he gets back on a progressive run but he copped out at cheltenham and now this against imo just grade 2 horses...
the case will continue but the jury is out and i for one say, take him down your honour ![]() |
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I was had big time on this horse, went to a preview evening prior to Cheltenham where John HAILES (Owner) was really bullish about his chances for the Arkle and Gold cup next year. I had it a treat. Backed him for the Arkle then lumped on yesterday. That 10/1 Supreme win profit has soon turned into a loss.
Send me down your honour for listening to an owner! |
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Sat on the next table to Hales yesterday. He looked seriously p1ssed off!
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Really disappointed with Al Ferof yesterday. He had a pretty easy race at Cheltenham after he made his mistake. I thought he would really improve for the step up in trip but he looked very one paced. Menorah was brilliant yesterday & I wasn't surprised he confirmed the Arkle form but Al Ferof couldn't even beat Crystal Bonus. I'm wondering whether the horse needs to be held up off a strong ace perhaps as the last couple of runs they have been rather aggressive & he has found very little at the end of his races. Even so I'm not sure he will be quite as good as first thought.
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yeh,some fair points,and he has disappointed no doubt,but the change of tactics,as you say MM,have not done him much good,and thats one of the reasons imo why he has disappointed.
I never backed him yesterday,was too short and it werent at Cheltenham where he was trained all season for. I shall reserve judgement till i see him next season,no harm in giving these horses chances,as long as it dont hurt the pocket. |
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Budde, I admire you resilience. An admirable quality!
It wont be to long before people are talking about this horse as a Paddy Power contender in October! |
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Umm,admirable as long as it dont turn into stubborn punting just to try and get proved right and make a point!!
I wont be backing him till i see how he is next season,and one thing i never do is write a horse off that performs below par at Aintree after running at the festival. Hes a young horse that aint done too bad so far in his career. |
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Maybe he is just a better hurdler than he is a chaser?
To me, it doesn't look like he is having that much fun jumping fences. His best performance was in the Supreme, in what will probably go down as a vintage Supreme. I think he'd have a better chance in placing in the World Hurdle than he would the Ryanair or the Gold Cup. |
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I think he is a fantastic jumper tbh wc. Jumped beautifully at Aintrea and looked a real natural. Don't think that's the issue myself. Wouldn't be surprised if its a wind issue.
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Dont forget he werent far behind the Champion Chase winner at Ascot.
It could well be simply a case of being over the top at Aintree.He was still going well in the Arkle when he made that mistake taking off too early. I see one bad run from him,and how many horses have done that at Aintree over the years after Cheltenham - a lot. His jumping of fences is fine(long as he takes off at the right place!!)Hes jumped well round Sandown and Cheltenham,so see absolutely no problem there. Time to judge is next season lads,thats fair on the horse imo. |
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CCM and Budd, you both make valid points.
The only slight issue I have with his jumping is when he gets put under pressure, otherwise I agree he jumps great. That may be because the distance is too sharp, it could be a wind issue or I could be talking crap ![]() Its just his style of running over 2m means he is usually flat to the board earlier than others, and when he is like that I think he is more prone to an error or two over fences, whereas when he is flat to the board over hurdles he can clear them easier. You are right Budd, that the form of the Ascot race looks strong through Finians, so for a novice it was a great performance. Like you, I haven't written him off, but the jury is still out until I see him contest a finish in a proper Grade 1. |
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Fair points from you as well mate.
Another thing that has been touched on is the change of tactics in his last 2 races,dont think thats done him any favours. Im convinced hes best ridden from off the pace using his strong staying ability,as he was in the Supreme. Hope thats how hes ridden next season. |