Cheltenham Festival
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Al Ferof ?
Al Ferof ?
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I am talking about his three runs over fences based on speed ratings Budd. He has not yet run a fast time and he has not improved his rating significantly since his chase debut which was 130 and his VC rating is 132. A lot of that will be down to the pace of the races he has been in and he was in the same situation before the Supreme (had not produced a fast speed rating yet) and he managed to win but that was down to stamina not speed as you well know. It now remains to be seen whether the race will be run in such a way that his stamina comes into play because it is as sure as chips is chips that AF is going to face an injection of pace at some point and he is likely to get outpaced at that point.
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GCW,
just pointing out a reason why imo AF aint very slow |
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I think it fair to say he showed plenty of speed in the supreme,thats what i think anyway,so in my view hes shown to have speed,and certainly is not very slow!!
I agree i think he will get a tad oupaced at some point,but he can still win the race,and i think he will. |
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See the comparism with Noland crops up again.
You do know he was injured and off for a year after he won the supreme??,makes a big difference imo. |
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Just to put into the mix again, the very reliable raceform speed ratings say Al Ferof has run 109 115 114 over fences. SS has run 112 103 100. SS has 6L to find with AF on those ratings.
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Thats intersting,was not aware of that,all i keep hearing/reading is that SS is streets ahead of AF!!
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guess we will find out which speed ratings are more reliable then Thieves, according to me:
AF: 130, 114, 132 SS: 146, 124, 160 and he could have gone much faster in all of those had he been asked for maximum you seriously think SS would have been six lengths behind AF in the VC??? madness |
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Think we'd need to match them up over more than 2 horses and 1 race to get that answer judo.
Out of interest here, shortlisting Arkle runners with a SR of 115+ in their last 2 starts has produced a blind profit over the last 8 years. BSM also has a 115, Cristal Bonus, were he to run, would also qualify with a 116. Shortlisting in this way also made a blind profit in the RSA with a lower threshold 113 and across the 5 grade 1 all age races with a threshold of 117. Reducing the shortlist with my usual global age and days since run filters increases the profits. A personal preference of mine when using speed ratings as a filter is also to concentrate on horse that finished in the first 2 when getting their SR as SRs achieved when being competitive are more likely to be repeated. This wouldn't rule out AF though as his qualifying SR was when winning his second chase. I don't know if using topspeed the same way would have been more or less effective, wish I had the time to research it. May even just be a product of the market bias in the major non handicaps as you could also have made profits backing blindly on RPRs above certain thresholds in most of these races including the novice hurdles where SRs do not do nearly so well. |
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On the narrower point of SS, yes accept he hasn't been ridden out for those SRs, AF was 114 in the VC so would have been 4L behind less whatever extra he can find...
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He definitely could still win this race. If I was sitting on 14/1 I would be arguing his corner too. We know for certain he'll stay up at that hill. I think Sprinter is the better horse but is he the better horse under arkle conditions? Although it would also be encouraging for Sprinter fans that he pulled hard early at Newbury yet still got home fine. If it wasn't the festival it would be a race to just watch :-)I haven't had a bet on it yet. Just interested to read all the views. I think the race is between the two of them personally.
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There's not one single piece of form to say that SS has the beating of AF, or if they're is i cant find it, anyone who says he can is guessing, guess away at that price I say
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there*
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I think Sprinter is the better horse but is he the better horse under arkle conditions?
GCW,thats it in a nutshell mate. Goretski,you are right but apparently its all about times and speed figures and because of them AF has no chance. |
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As thev jurys still out as Regards Al Ferof,wondering what will happen next season with him.
Gut feeling is he steps up in distance,but still going well when ruining his chances in the Arkle. Will he stay 3m??,he should stay 2 and half ok,and hes proven over 2m. Interesting to see what happens. |
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Budd.........Good question,have to say on the day, as a backer,he met a horse at the top of his game and he was never travelling as well as the winner,too early to say where he would have finnished,and the stable form adds another factor.
Too early to write him off as a 2 miler,however I think a step up would seem logical,not sure we will see him again until next year,a grand horse. Well done to Sprinter followers,performance of the meeting for me,sheer power and superb jumping at speed,a truly championship performance. |
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Personally I think its clear that he wouldnt have beaten Cue Card, even at the top of his game, never mind SS.
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i think its fair to say that mistake or not AF was no where near his best on the day, clearly the best horse won! but im not havin that he wouldnt have beaten cue card if not on the top of his game
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Three festivals in a row.......2>1 to cue card,are these two destined to meet every March?
Ryanair 2013 maybe,lets hope they both stay sound. |
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i doubt the nicholls yard will be coughing 3 weeks before next years festival
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nothings clear as to where he would have finished as he made a race ending mistake.
He was always going to be travelling not as well as SS,we all knew that.What we dont know is the crucial bit,where he would have been at the end of the race. Yep Ryanair is to me the most likely as i really aint sure about the Gold Cup trip,but until he gets beat running his race i personally would like to see him over 2m against the best at Cheltenham. |
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Suspect if he is well, he might run in the race at Aintree where Wishfull Thinking beat Medermit last season.
Step up in trip seems inevitable. No point in taking on SS over 2 miles and Ruby has already said what a great ride he'll be in the 2012 King George. |
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i doubt he is well and doubt he,ll be out again this season, he was absolutely cruising in front, but jumped so far away from the fence he basically landed on top of it, id bet he is as sore as hell and will need time to get over it.
i too feel its too early to right him off as a top notch 2 miler |
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yeh,i would be surprised if he werent a bit sore after that!! Lets hope he recovers well if thats so.
agree,its too early Alleged as re 2 miles,and such a shame we were not given the finish we wanted. The way he was going at the time,i suspect it would have been a lot better finish than the one we got. |
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Al Ferof is a great jumper but he took off at the same time as Sprinter at the fence he made a mess of and unfortunately he can't quite make those jumps yet. I think he has a real future but I wouldn't be rushing him to be running over 3 miles yet he has plenty of pace. He could develop into a Gold Cup horse but I'm not sure he wants 3m2 yet. If he was mine I'd aim him at 2 and a half mile races or even some over 2 in Ireland. Could see him going well in something like the Ascot chase or even the Paddy Power earlier in the year (160 looks stiff enough though).
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Al Ferof probably wants a bit of cut to be at his best like most Dom Alco offspring
I would put him away and look for some nice races around 2 and half miles with a bit of juice in the ground |
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masterminded ive just had to watch the race again just to make sure in slow motion at the fence in question,and AF is clearly in mid air before SS takes off, he starts his jump at the begining of the wings a clear 2 and a half horse lengths at least before the fence, looking at it again im surprised he made it over the fence
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http://youtu.be/lz3ivr1cn8I
2mins 25/6 secs check it out in slow mo |
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Yes but sprinter was behind him mate they take off near on the same distance away from the fence I sky plussed the race & have watched it.
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Genuinely flabbergasted at the pocket talk on here re Al Ferof.
Have any of you who backed the horse even asked yourselves why connections decided to change the tactics on him despite everything they bullishly stated beforehand being the opposite ? Just gobsmacked here. |
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sorry dude AF is in the air before SS takes off, its there for all to see, AF is on his way down as SS is taking off
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Yes because sprinters nearly a length down going into the fence! FFS
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Al Ferof is a great jumper but he took off at the same time as Sprinter at the fence he made a mess of and unfortunately he can't quite make those jumps yet
with respect - thats rubbish. |
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Go on then Budd explain why that's rubbish.. I have been right all season and you have been wrong so maybe it is you who is talking the rubbish. Sprinter is a jumping machine. Al Ferof is good in his own right but he can't stand that far off hence why he lands on top of the fence u muppet.
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We'll never know what was going through Ruby's head 4 out. BG was just beginning to serve it up on his outer and SS too stood well off the ditch but cleared it easily because he accelerated into the fence. I've watched the re-run of this race several times and whilst SS has plenty of speed, it was jumping that won this race. I've never seen a novice jump the last 4 better.
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Sint,
Im not talking about tactics and whether AF would have won the race or anything like it,so cease with the Pocket talking jibes(yet again)!! Its not pocket talking as far as i am concerned,what happened,happened,thats racing.Of course i was disappointed not to see him at the business end as the race would have been a lot more interesting,and a lot of points that were made on here prior to the race hinged on the finish. Anyway,i had no intention of starting a big debate,we had enough of that in the build up. The reason i bumped this up was to discuss sensibly where they go with AF now,as my opinion is that the Arkle proved nothing as far as AF is concerned as his race was ruined too early. So i personally would like him to have another go at 2m in the top company,although i do think it more likely he will be stepped up.Fascinating to see what his optimum distance will be eventually. |
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they took off at the same place but SS was behind so took off a fraction later....SS could make the jump and AF couldn't.
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MM,no horse who took off from where he did would have cleared that fence,to say he cant quiet make those jumps yet is unfair,no horse could.
Stupid thing to say. And enlighten me into what i got wrong all season- trumpet blower  |
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im gonna watch it again
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Bud don't answer my questions with questions. Why is what I have said rubbish? Are you saying Al Ferof can make those jumps because he clearly couldn't at Cheltenham whereas Sprinter clearly can and his jump at the next is even bigger. You can't say I'm talking rubbish it's not really fair. The worse thing is I was actually being complimentary about Al Ferof.
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SS took off nearer the fence than AF,no doubt.
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