Cheltenham Festival
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sir tom gives his world hurdle verdict next tuesday in the post , what will he pick ? ,well we know he wont put up big bucks due to price although big bucks is by far the most likely winner and its hard to see anything beating him really ! but its a horserace and anything can happen !obviously the front 2 big bucks and oscar whiskey take a huge chunk out of the market but that does leave scope for a big priced value each way tip .
oscar whiskey has a touch of class and is progressive but he is a best priced 5/1 and although he could possibly give big bucks a race we are not 100% sure he will get the trip and i dont think tom will put this one up .
thousand stars comes into the reconing on his good runs in the champion hurdle and his win in the big french hurdle would put him in the picture but mullins has not said 100% he is being aimed at this race , although trying to 2nd guess paddy is hard work .
so young is progressive but does have a bit to prove at the trip ,and has been winning small field races in ireland over shorter distances in soft ground at 20s he could run into a place .
voler la voddette is also improving and may well improve for the trip but she could go for the mares race .
zaidpour has promised more than he has delivered imo but does have ability and could improve for this trip , mikael de haguanet at 25s could be interesting but does have a bit to find with a few of these .
the one who interests me and who is a fair price( over 40s on betfair and around 7s for a place) is paddy mullins consistent mourad he ran well in the race last year finishing about 5 lengths behind big bucks ,he has been beaten by voler la vodette in his last 2 races but was giving the mare 7lbs and he should get the strong pace that suits in the world hurdle, not saying he can beat big bucks but he could well make the frame again and there are less question marks for him than many of the others, at 20s in the shops he could be the one tom puts up. think he will go 1pt each way .
this is my take on it if youve got an opinion put it up ! good luck .
oscar whiskey has a touch of class and is progressive but he is a best priced 5/1 and although he could possibly give big bucks a race we are not 100% sure he will get the trip and i dont think tom will put this one up .
thousand stars comes into the reconing on his good runs in the champion hurdle and his win in the big french hurdle would put him in the picture but mullins has not said 100% he is being aimed at this race , although trying to 2nd guess paddy is hard work .
so young is progressive but does have a bit to prove at the trip ,and has been winning small field races in ireland over shorter distances in soft ground at 20s he could run into a place .
voler la voddette is also improving and may well improve for the trip but she could go for the mares race .
zaidpour has promised more than he has delivered imo but does have ability and could improve for this trip , mikael de haguanet at 25s could be interesting but does have a bit to find with a few of these .
the one who interests me and who is a fair price( over 40s on betfair and around 7s for a place) is paddy mullins consistent mourad he ran well in the race last year finishing about 5 lengths behind big bucks ,he has been beaten by voler la vodette in his last 2 races but was giving the mare 7lbs and he should get the strong pace that suits in the world hurdle, not saying he can beat big bucks but he could well make the frame again and there are less question marks for him than many of the others, at 20s in the shops he could be the one tom puts up. think he will go 1pt each way .
this is my take on it if youve got an opinion put it up ! good luck .
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I think he'll put up So Young.
Backed in the Neptune like defeat was impossible. Don't think the horse was right when he was turned over after Cheltenham, and has come back and won three Micky Mouse races, all at odds on. But I think he is back on an upward curve and is only young with improvement still left in him, and Mullins and Walsh have said he's all stamina and 2m is very sharp for him. Currently 20/1, I'd go 1pt ew |
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If I were Tom i'd put up Oscar Whsikey tbh. I dont think anything else in the race has the remotest chance of beating BB tbh, at least with OW we know he has class having placed in a Champion Hurdle and then routing Peddlers Cross at Aintree. NJH has said he will go for the race as he has no chance of winning the Champion so I dont see why Tom could not pick OW at 5/1.
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At 25/1 I think it might be MDH.
Personally this is one race at Cheltenham. won't be having a bet - BB looks better than ever this season |
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E/W So young
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did consider mdh but he hasnt really lived up to what he promised to be and he was behind mourad when mourad was 2nd to quevega ,(mourad only beaten 1 1/4 lengths) and mourad always seems to run his race plus the good ground useully at chelt should suit mourad. do think that big bucks should win but some of these could give him a race .
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Well haven't had a stab at any of these but think there is a Nap here and it has to be Thousand Stars the only trouble is he is 20 on here...really like this horse and he proved he stays really well when winning in Grade 1 company at Auteuil last summer...he has to be top of tom's list...
So have probably tipped a non runner  |
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sure i heard somewhere mullins said hes going for the champion ?(no me neither )
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That will explain the 20's foyles...shame really would of liked to have seen him here...
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he's not going to pick anything that has already been exposed as not good enough over the trip...so it would be OS or zaidpour at a price for me.
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dont take what ive said as gospel ,but think he did say champion.
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Duffy what horse are you referring to as being exposed and not good enough at the trip???
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mourad...BB has already put him in his place once....he ran a decent race of course, but i see no reason why he should beat him this time round.
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Ah sos thought you were on about the exposed but unexposed at the trip Thousand Stars...Toms pick aside I like Mourad in the betting without market as feel he can be in the first 4...If OW races Big Bucks he may blow out and Mourad may plod on and pick the pieces up...9-1 is fair in that market.
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duff dont think tom segal really thinks that anything will beat big bucks but anything can happen ,,he will put up something e.way . this looks like a race he probably wouldnt bet in off his own bat . but he is obliged to put up a selection for the paper ! so as you say it could be an unexposed horse at the trip zaidpour ,so young, or a proven stayer like mourad
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foyles..sorry you're right of course...i didn't mean to sound so dismissive...like you say he is obliged to put something up.
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no probs duffy, good luck .
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There is one big problem here. Mullins. He trains most of the horses with each way chances outside the big 2 and he won't know what's going to run in the race (or at least he won't tell you) until the last minute.
There's a horse that's 40-1 in the without BB market that stays the trip, and on it's last run posted an RPR in excess of any hurdles RPR ever achieved by Mikael and So Young. It's had just the one run for it's new trainer who has improved another horse from the same yard in Hold Fast. Step forward Tidal Bay. Ok, he may run in the Gold Cup but it's not as if all the Mullins ones are definite runners is it? Could be a very small field and the 10-1 about the old boy hitting the first 4 is a gift IMO |
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we were all excited about tidal bay 2 years ago after he won the cleeve...went off single figures in the world hurdle that year.
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I think he will put up Zaidpour
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I think Tidal is more likely to run in the Gold Cup.
I think Pricewise will put up Oscar W. He did put up Kauto for the King George at 5/1 which is not totally different. I can't see anything else (though I can't phone up willie Mullins to ask about running plans). If it were me, I'd put up Big Buck's. If it's a winner it's Pricewise  |
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I think he should say this race is not worth a bet AP. Then make a selection in the W/O BB market!
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Can't see him doing that, it would pee off some of the paper's advertisers who don't have an each way market. But you are right - that seems a better market to play in. I got some 2-1 on OW but again it's hard to know what to do until we know the Mullins plans.
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Soz, that should read "don't have a without BB market".
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Incidentally, I've heard Segal say he thinks BB is the best NH horse in training - so he may well go for something in the w/o BB market or try to be creative in some other way.
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Sorry to follow up my own post but anyone remember what he put up last year for the World Hrd?
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Think it was Spirit River - definitely a Henderson horse
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i may be wrong here but i dont think he will put up oscar whiskey ,because of the price i.e 5/1 he knows that big bucks is goin to be very hard to beat ( a few years ago big bucks would give the opposition some hope by hitting a notable flat spot in his races ,he dosent afford them the luxuary nowadays ) and what with oscar whiskey not proven at the distance cant see him selecting him tbh ,think he will go with one of the bigger priced ones ,probably 1 of mullins each way .
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Thanks Roo - that went well then
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as i said earlier stront ,dont think for 1 moment tom segal would have a bet in the race (probably puts on a token bet on his selection just in case . ,spirit river last year an example he is much more happier with the handicaps imo .but he is paid to put up the ante post bets as it sells papers on an otherwise average tuesday.
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spirit river? you sure??
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Completely agree Foyles - he has to put up something! I said much the same about his QMCC pick last week.
Budd - apparently so: http://tipsterform.com/pricewise-cheltenham-ante-post/ (In fairness, it was before the Cleeve......!) |
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Blimey!! Would not have expected that.
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Yes, it was defo Spirit River
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I think he'll put up So Young e/w and in the W/O Big Bucks market
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Wot about Carlito Brigante? Festival winner in last year's Coral Cup. Is surely unexposed so I could see uncle Tom having a second glance. Was heavily eased lto in the G2 hurdle at Wetherby. Was only 7L behind Quevega last season giving the mare 5lb over the distance. Don't know if being aimed at the race tho. Worth throwing away a mario at 80 on here
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Was just about to sat Carlito Brigante too, 50/1 with the bookies. As far as I know he's being aimed for it Willie.
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Great minds Slabster
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Mikael D'hag - 25/1 imo
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I think CB aint goin. Stuck up a fiver at 120 and taken within the hour. Why "risk" a monkey to win a poxy five spot , unless you know it's a safe monkey
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