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sir tom gives his world hurdle verdict next tuesday in the post , what will he pick ? ,well we know he wont put up big bucks due to price although big bucks is by far the most likely winner and its hard to see anything beating him really ! but its a horserace and anything can happen !obviously the front 2 big bucks and oscar whiskey take a huge chunk out of the market but that does leave scope for a big priced value each way tip .
oscar whiskey has a touch of class and is progressive but he is a best priced 5/1 and although he could possibly give big bucks a race we are not 100% sure he will get the trip and i dont think tom will put this one up .
thousand stars comes into the reconing on his good runs in the champion hurdle and his win in the big french hurdle would put him in the picture but mullins has not said 100% he is being aimed at this race , although trying to 2nd guess paddy is hard work .
so young is progressive but does have a bit to prove at the trip ,and has been winning small field races in ireland over shorter distances in soft ground at 20s he could run into a place .
voler la voddette is also improving and may well improve for the trip but she could go for the mares race .
zaidpour has promised more than he has delivered imo but does have ability and could improve for this trip , mikael de haguanet at 25s could be interesting but does have a bit to find with a few of these .
the one who interests me and who is a fair price( over 40s on betfair and around 7s for a place) is paddy mullins consistent mourad he ran well in the race last year finishing about 5 lengths behind big bucks ,he has been beaten by voler la vodette in his last 2 races but was giving the mare 7lbs and he should get the strong pace that suits in the world hurdle, not saying he can beat big bucks but he could well make the frame again and there are less question marks for him than many of the others, at 20s in the shops he could be the one tom puts up. think he will go 1pt each way .
this is my take on it if youve got an opinion put it up ! good luck .
oscar whiskey has a touch of class and is progressive but he is a best priced 5/1 and although he could possibly give big bucks a race we are not 100% sure he will get the trip and i dont think tom will put this one up .
thousand stars comes into the reconing on his good runs in the champion hurdle and his win in the big french hurdle would put him in the picture but mullins has not said 100% he is being aimed at this race , although trying to 2nd guess paddy is hard work .
so young is progressive but does have a bit to prove at the trip ,and has been winning small field races in ireland over shorter distances in soft ground at 20s he could run into a place .
voler la voddette is also improving and may well improve for the trip but she could go for the mares race .
zaidpour has promised more than he has delivered imo but does have ability and could improve for this trip , mikael de haguanet at 25s could be interesting but does have a bit to find with a few of these .
the one who interests me and who is a fair price( over 40s on betfair and around 7s for a place) is paddy mullins consistent mourad he ran well in the race last year finishing about 5 lengths behind big bucks ,he has been beaten by voler la vodette in his last 2 races but was giving the mare 7lbs and he should get the strong pace that suits in the world hurdle, not saying he can beat big bucks but he could well make the frame again and there are less question marks for him than many of the others, at 20s in the shops he could be the one tom puts up. think he will go 1pt each way .
this is my take on it if youve got an opinion put it up ! good luck .
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I think he'll put up So Young.
Backed in the Neptune like defeat was impossible. Don't think the horse was right when he was turned over after Cheltenham, and has come back and won three Micky Mouse races, all at odds on.
But I think he is back on an upward curve and is only young with improvement still left in him, and Mullins and Walsh have said he's all stamina and 2m is very sharp for him.
Currently 20/1, I'd go 1pt ew
Backed in the Neptune like defeat was impossible. Don't think the horse was right when he was turned over after Cheltenham, and has come back and won three Micky Mouse races, all at odds on.
But I think he is back on an upward curve and is only young with improvement still left in him, and Mullins and Walsh have said he's all stamina and 2m is very sharp for him.
Currently 20/1, I'd go 1pt ew
If I were Tom i'd put up Oscar Whsikey tbh. I dont think anything else in the race has the remotest chance of beating BB tbh, at least with OW we know he has class having placed in a Champion Hurdle and then routing Peddlers Cross at Aintree. NJH has said he will go for the race as he has no chance of winning the Champion so I dont see why Tom could not pick OW at 5/1.
At 25/1 I think it might be MDH.
Personally this is one race at Cheltenham. won't be having a bet - BB looks better than ever this season
Personally this is one race at Cheltenham. won't be having a bet - BB looks better than ever this season
did consider mdh but he hasnt really lived up to what he promised to be and he was behind mourad when mourad was 2nd to quevega ,(mourad only beaten 1 1/4 lengths) and mourad always seems to run his race plus the good ground useully at chelt should suit mourad. do think that big bucks should win but some of these could give him a race .
Well haven't had a stab at any of these but think there is a Nap here and it has to be Thousand Stars the only trouble is he is 20 on here...really like this horse and he proved he stays really well when winning in Grade 1 company at Auteuil last summer...he has to be top of tom's list...
So have probably tipped a non runner
So have probably tipped a non runner
sure i heard somewhere mullins said hes going for the champion ?(no me neither )
That will explain the 20's foyles...shame really would of liked to have seen him here...
he's not going to pick anything that has already been exposed as not good enough over the trip...so it would be OS or zaidpour at a price for me.
dont take what ive said as gospel ,but think he did say champion.
Duffy what horse are you referring to as being exposed and not good enough at the trip???
mourad...BB has already put him in his place once....he ran a decent race of course, but i see no reason why he should beat him this time round.
Ah sos thought you were on about the exposed but unexposed at the trip Thousand Stars...Toms pick aside I like Mourad in the betting without market as feel he can be in the first 4...If OW races Big Bucks he may blow out and Mourad may plod on and pick the pieces up...9-1 is fair in that market.
duff dont think tom segal really thinks that anything will beat big bucks but anything can happen ,,he will put up something e.way . this looks like a race he probably wouldnt bet in off his own bat . but he is obliged to put up a selection for the paper ! so as you say it could be an unexposed horse at the trip zaidpour ,so young, or a proven stayer like mourad
foyles..sorry you're right of course...i didn't mean to sound so dismissive...like you say he is obliged to put something up.
There is one big problem here. Mullins. He trains most of the horses with each way chances outside the big 2 and he won't know what's going to run in the race (or at least he won't tell you) until the last minute.
There's a horse that's 40-1 in the without BB market that stays the trip, and on it's last run posted an RPR in excess of any hurdles RPR ever achieved by Mikael and So Young. It's had just the one run for it's new trainer who has improved another horse from the same yard in Hold Fast.
Step forward Tidal Bay. Ok, he may run in the Gold Cup but it's not as if all the Mullins ones are definite runners is it? Could be a very small field and the 10-1 about the old boy hitting the first 4 is a gift IMO
There's a horse that's 40-1 in the without BB market that stays the trip, and on it's last run posted an RPR in excess of any hurdles RPR ever achieved by Mikael and So Young. It's had just the one run for it's new trainer who has improved another horse from the same yard in Hold Fast.
Step forward Tidal Bay. Ok, he may run in the Gold Cup but it's not as if all the Mullins ones are definite runners is it? Could be a very small field and the 10-1 about the old boy hitting the first 4 is a gift IMO
we were all excited about tidal bay 2 years ago after he won the cleeve...went off single figures in the world hurdle that year.
I think Tidal is more likely to run in the Gold Cup.
I think Pricewise will put up Oscar W. He did put up Kauto for the King George at 5/1 which is not totally different. I can't see anything else (though I can't phone up willie Mullins to ask about running plans).
If it were me, I'd put up Big Buck's. If it's a winner it's Pricewise
I think Pricewise will put up Oscar W. He did put up Kauto for the King George at 5/1 which is not totally different. I can't see anything else (though I can't phone up willie Mullins to ask about running plans).
If it were me, I'd put up Big Buck's. If it's a winner it's Pricewise
I think he should say this race is not worth a bet AP. Then make a selection in the W/O BB market!
Can't see him doing that, it would pee off some of the paper's advertisers who don't have an each way market. But you are right - that seems a better market to play in. I got some 2-1 on OW but again it's hard to know what to do until we know the Mullins plans.
Soz, that should read "don't have a without BB market".
Incidentally, I've heard Segal say he thinks BB is the best NH horse in training - so he may well go for something in the w/o BB market or try to be creative in some other way.
Sorry to follow up my own post but anyone remember what he put up last year for the World Hrd?
Think it was Spirit River - definitely a Henderson horse
i may be wrong here but i dont think he will put up oscar whiskey ,because of the price i.e 5/1 he knows that big bucks is goin to be very hard to beat ( a few years ago big bucks would give the opposition some hope by hitting a notable flat spot in his races ,he dosent afford them the luxuary nowadays ) and what with oscar whiskey not proven at the distance cant see him selecting him tbh ,think he will go with one of the bigger priced ones ,probably 1 of mullins each way .
as i said earlier stront ,dont think for 1 moment tom segal would have a bet in the race (probably puts on a token bet on his selection just in case . ,spirit river last year an example he is much more happier with the handicaps imo .but he is paid to put up the ante post bets as it sells papers on an otherwise average tuesday.
Completely agree Foyles - he has to put up something! I said much the same about his QMCC pick last week.
Budd - apparently so: http://tipsterform.com/pricewise-cheltenham-ante-post/
(In fairness, it was before the Cleeve......!)
Budd - apparently so: http://tipsterform.com/pricewise-cheltenham-ante-post/
(In fairness, it was before the Cleeve......!)
I think he'll put up So Young e/w and in the W/O Big Bucks market
Wot about Carlito Brigante? Festival winner in last year's Coral Cup. Is surely unexposed so I could see uncle Tom having a second glance. Was heavily eased lto in the G2 hurdle at Wetherby. Was only 7L behind Quevega last season giving the mare 5lb over the distance. Don't know if being aimed at the race tho. Worth throwing away a mario at 80 on here
Was just about to sat Carlito Brigante too, 50/1 with the bookies. As far as I know he's being aimed for it Willie.
I think CB aint goin. Stuck up a fiver at 120 and taken within the hour. Why "risk" a monkey to win a poxy five spot , unless you know it's a safe monkey
Mikael D'hag - 20/1 general or 33/1 if you can get your £2 max stake on with the Gibraltar bottle merchants (SJ)
Lads just cut price to 10/1
Lads just cut price to 10/1
Yeah, Our Father being shortened across the board. I've never heard of him!
D'Hag being shortened as well. Won't be backing either of them.
D'Hag being shortened as well. Won't be backing either of them.
Our father easily won a class 4 handicap at Ascot beating Shoreacres.
Our Father, Mark Howard picked him out in his 40 to follow at the start of the year as a potential World Hurdle candidate, bet you'd have got some massive prices then
^^^^^Doesn't scream World Hurdle to me mate.
Beating Shoreacres by 1.5 lengths, who was then beaten by Smad Place by 7 lengths doesn't make me want to run out and take the 25's.
As for Mikeal, I'd be wanting at least 33/1 - 40/1 for him before I'd even think of backing him.
Beating Shoreacres by 1.5 lengths, who was then beaten by Smad Place by 7 lengths doesn't make me want to run out and take the 25's.
As for Mikeal, I'd be wanting at least 33/1 - 40/1 for him before I'd even think of backing him.
Has at least won this season unlike Tom`s other Cheltenham picks to date.
Our Father was value for far more than the 1.5 lengths that he beat Shoreacres.
as i said before ,dont think tom would have bet this one( maybee he thinks it has a similar profile to grans crus) maybee a token bet just in case ,but he is paid by the paper to put up these ante post tips up to sell more papers on a quiet tuesday ,hes got to put up something ,out of the 4 championship races he has put up the only one that he seemed half keen on and may have backed ( me reading between the lines) was captain chris in the gold cup and possibly oscars well in the champion hurdle ,but i backed these before he put them up so i might be pocket talking .
tom put up carlito brigante 1pt ew with lads nrnb. if the mullins horses give way can see it being 25-20s on the day may sneak a place
i agree it has no win chance but with a few of the field uncertain to run so if it lines up may shorten a few points then i suppose u could argue thats job jone beat the bookies. nrnb aswell so given the task of opposing bb its quite an imaginitive/hopefull/crazy selection...id have gone oscar whisky myself
Oscar Whisky has now gone from 'almost certain to run' to '60-40 to run' according to owner in R Post today. Dont know whether to write lol or ffs!
Easy to see why though. Plus Geraghty might now be available.
Rod Tidwell
24 Jan 12 14:35
Oscar Whisky has now gone from 'almost certain to run' to '60-40 to run' according to owner in R Post today. Dont know whether to write lol or ffs!
Definitely FFS
Henderson moans about the exchanges one minute (re Spirit Son drift) and then the next thing the horse who is a heavily backed 2nd favourite after Henderson said it was defintely being aimed at the World Hurdle is now only 60-40 to be aimed at the race.
He's getting worse than Mullins.
24 Jan 12 14:35
Oscar Whisky has now gone from 'almost certain to run' to '60-40 to run' according to owner in R Post today. Dont know whether to write lol or ffs!
Definitely FFS
Henderson moans about the exchanges one minute (re Spirit Son drift) and then the next thing the horse who is a heavily backed 2nd favourite after Henderson said it was defintely being aimed at the World Hurdle is now only 60-40 to be aimed at the race.
He's getting worse than Mullins.
strontium
24 Jan 12 15:13
Easy to see why though. Plus Geraghty might now be available.
Surely Gerraghty will be on Grandouet whatever else happens.
24 Jan 12 15:13
Easy to see why though. Plus Geraghty might now be available.
Surely Gerraghty will be on Grandouet whatever else happens.
I think the change in stance is down to the possible non runner of Spirit Son though. Clearly Nicky told the owner OW has no chance of beating SS, yet he might beat the other two ?
I think he will go world hurdle anyway.
I think he will go world hurdle anyway.
Here is what Henderson said last week according to the Sporting Life:
Oscar Whisky was third in last year's Champion Hurdle and his trainer now feels the time is right to have a crack at the mighty Big Buck's in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle over an unchartered three miles.
"Two and half miles suits Oscar Whisky well but his next run will be over two miles as he is going to Ffos Las for the Welsh Champion Hurdle," Henderson said.
"It might not be a logical route but it is obviously because Dai Walters owns him and Ffos Las and wants him there so that is where we are going to go.
"He won it last year and I would like to win it again and then we will switch him from two miles to three miles for the World Hurdle and there is no great problem with that.
"I can't see how he is going to win the Champion Hurdle and I wish there was a champion two and a half mile event as that would be made for him as he proved at Aintree last year.
Clearly he should have said 'we will wait and see what happens at Ffos Las and then depending on the well being of our other runners and the other market leaders we will make a decision nearer the time'.
Oscar Whisky was third in last year's Champion Hurdle and his trainer now feels the time is right to have a crack at the mighty Big Buck's in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle over an unchartered three miles.
"Two and half miles suits Oscar Whisky well but his next run will be over two miles as he is going to Ffos Las for the Welsh Champion Hurdle," Henderson said.
"It might not be a logical route but it is obviously because Dai Walters owns him and Ffos Las and wants him there so that is where we are going to go.
"He won it last year and I would like to win it again and then we will switch him from two miles to three miles for the World Hurdle and there is no great problem with that.
"I can't see how he is going to win the Champion Hurdle and I wish there was a champion two and a half mile event as that would be made for him as he proved at Aintree last year.
Clearly he should have said 'we will wait and see what happens at Ffos Las and then depending on the well being of our other runners and the other market leaders we will make a decision nearer the time'.
Bl00dy hell!!
What the feck is going on with this stable?? Thought they had made their mind up.
If HF fails to shine i reckon they will go CH,just hope he puts in a real good performance this weekend.
As Sint says they think he can beat Grandouet and Bino by the looks of it.
Not only may i have lost out on Spirit running i may also lose out on OW running in the WH.Still thats antepost.
I have saved on OW for the CH,but nowhere near the amount for the WH.
Just wish when they say something definite,they stick to it.
60-40 says he is more likely to go WH,but i reckon its all about HF's well being.
What the feck is going on with this stable?? Thought they had made their mind up.
If HF fails to shine i reckon they will go CH,just hope he puts in a real good performance this weekend.
As Sint says they think he can beat Grandouet and Bino by the looks of it.
Not only may i have lost out on Spirit running i may also lose out on OW running in the WH.Still thats antepost.
I have saved on OW for the CH,but nowhere near the amount for the WH.
Just wish when they say something definite,they stick to it.
60-40 says he is more likely to go WH,but i reckon its all about HF's well being.
Uncle - that was before Spirit Son was ruled out. And I don't see why BG would pick Grandouet over OW - I know which I'd rather back!
OW must have a chance in the Champion. He came third last year and is having a good season. Hurricane Fly hasn't been seen yet and has doubts (at this stage), nor has Zarkander. (Without getitng in to what chance he would have of beating Big Buck's!)
I've assumed they wanted to run OW in the World Hurdle as they had nothing else for it, BJG wouldn't have a ride and they had a strong candidate (or two) for the Champion. Now their Champion position has weakened, why not reconsider? I can't see Binocular beating OW and he's better than Grandouet on ratings.
I guess what happens to Hurricane Fly could be crucial - if he bombs on Sunday or his injury doeubts resurface I'd expect to see OW in the Champion.
OW must have a chance in the Champion. He came third last year and is having a good season. Hurricane Fly hasn't been seen yet and has doubts (at this stage), nor has Zarkander. (Without getitng in to what chance he would have of beating Big Buck's!)
I've assumed they wanted to run OW in the World Hurdle as they had nothing else for it, BJG wouldn't have a ride and they had a strong candidate (or two) for the Champion. Now their Champion position has weakened, why not reconsider? I can't see Binocular beating OW and he's better than Grandouet on ratings.
I guess what happens to Hurricane Fly could be crucial - if he bombs on Sunday or his injury doeubts resurface I'd expect to see OW in the Champion.
Take HF out of the race,i think he has to go Churdle,pains me to say it,but he then has 5 yr olds and Binocular in his way.
I spose you cant blame them if they changed their minds in that scenario,its what i would do.
I spose you cant blame them if they changed their minds in that scenario,its what i would do.
Gutted, I wondered why someone matched my 2/1 w/out Big Bucks.
I put it up more in hope than expectation about a week ago, and now I can see why someone's layed it
I put it up more in hope than expectation about a week ago, and now I can see why someone's layed it
Whenever you hear a clerk of the course say a meeting is 60-40 to go ahead you just know it's going to be abandoned...so on that logic I'm inclined to side with the 40 option at the moment!
All not lost yet,that could still be a good bet.
Aint thnat right Howdi
Aint thnat right Howdi
They should go CH anyway imo. Yes IF he stays 3 miles he is a cert for 2nd at worst in the WH. But, he wouldn't be the first to improve on a previous run in the Champion, which is of course a much more prestigious prize.
Why step into the unknown when you can go for the bigger prize in full knowledge that he can at least place?
Not a fan of this stable at all, once again pissing around joe punter the lifeblood of the sport. Hope the pwick has zero winners.
Why step into the unknown when you can go for the bigger prize in full knowledge that he can at least place?
Not a fan of this stable at all, once again pissing around joe punter the lifeblood of the sport. Hope the pwick has zero winners.
Cheers. That will set them off again on the various Arkle threads 
Yeah Foyles, I'd think twice before doing an Arkle write up; you're setting yourself up for all kinds of abuse!!!
oh ill be doing a toms arkle pick ,will probably wait till weekend trials have been run and put it up sunday night , can handle the abuse no probs
Don't listen to them Foyles. Your doin a great job
budd he'll run mate
but he'll lose
shame you aren't at chelters this sat mate id have bought you a beer
but he'll lose
shame you aren't at chelters this sat mate id have bought you a beer
Cheers mate,wish i could be.
Main thing is that he runs,i have plans for Big Bucks and others like Sprinter Sacre that can stop me winning nice money.
Howdi,
you going to Newbury on the 11th??
Main thing is that he runs,i have plans for Big Bucks and others like Sprinter Sacre that can stop me winning nice money.
Howdi,
you going to Newbury on the 11th??
NJH sounds pretty certain he'll go World Hurdle.
I must be on my own but think OW will improve for 3 miles tbh.
I must be on my own but think OW will improve for 3 miles tbh.
Of course if The Fly fails to sparkle, there could be more than one reconsidering their options. I know that McCain has stated unequivocally that PC will stay chasing, but a shot at the CH w/o HF would be very hard to turn down. The Arkle looks the harder option and could be worth skipping.
Totally agree Desmond. 130 on here. Worth "throwing away" a fiver
At that price yes, but it can be hard for horses to go back from chasing to hurdling as they get used to taking the flights differently and top level hurdle requires that real slick, nimble jumping.
At that price yes, but it can be hard for horses to go back from chasing to hurdling as they get used to taking the flights differently and top level hurdle requires that real slick, nimble jumping.
Even if HF disappoints on his comeback I cant see McCain switching targets now. PC has had 3 chase runs. He is too far down the road in his chase career to be switching back to hurdles imo.
I suspect they will want another crack at Sacre as well.
''No one beats Peddlers like that'' , a quote from McCain in the aftermath of the defeat.
''No one beats Peddlers like that'' , a quote from McCain in the aftermath of the defeat.
But if the trainer absolutely knows he cannot beat SS, it "could" sway him towards another pop at the CH, if HF were to get injured and miss the gig
He does know he's talking about a horse? Noone puts Baby in the corner!
Indeed Stront . But that's what he said. Have to respect his opinion aswell, he's adamant PC weren't suited to it at Kempton.
. But that's what he said. Have to respect his opinion aswell, he's adamant PC weren't suited to it at Kempton.
That's the point though Willie, if he runs PC in the Arkle then clearly he does believe he will reverse form with SS ..
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