Picking holes/negatives in any 25/1 shot is easy. Segal isn't saying "this will win" ; he's saying it has more like a ~6% chance than a ~4% chance - and personally I'd agree. But he'd be well aware that there is still a 94% chance of being wrong, and then all the snipers can say "terrible selection" etc. But that's what 'value' punting is about. And at the end of the day Segal-types will do a lot better long-term that the "Hurricane Fly, Big Bucks, Sprinter Sacre - BANKERS"-types.

Stotsfold, maybe he such advise in his column the minimum price to be taken also then. He is 16/1 best now and I imagine still being bet off the back of the tip

from racing post pricewise today ........if hurricane fly gets to the race he probably wins ,but at 25s oscars well is no forlorn hope to give the fav a run for his money .
jessie harringtons 7 yold looks a 2 miler through and through and i dont think hes had a race run to suit him yet .
at last years festival he tanked along in the neptune and was still a length in front when smashing through the last hurdle and losing all chance .he probably wuld not have won that day but he had expended so much energy through the race that it is clear he needs a fast run 2 miles .
look at the record of neptune runners in the champion istabraq and hardy eustace won both and peddlers cross nearly won both , and those with longer memories will recall that french holly being placed in a champion having won the 2.5 mile contest the previous season . basically the race appears to be a much better trial than the supreme for the following years champion -and oscars well looked the best horses in the neptune .
he is a big price because has stuggled over 2 miles this season but he ran a blinder at leopardstown over christmass ,again tanking into a clear lead turning for home before tireing after the last . that was clear eviedence he has the pace for 2 miles and a strongly run race at cheltenham in march on better ground could easily bring about masses of improvement .
oscars well jumps quickly and his trainer has a very good record aty the festival ,so i expect him to be a real factor in the champion .beating hurricane fly will be tough but at 25/1 each way or 20s with ladds nrnb seems a decent bet .
henderson holds a strong hand but the fact he isnt aiming oscar whiskey at the race suggests he feels he has a big chance of beating hurricane fly with 1 of his 3 . of the 3 spirit son is the most interesting but he was beaten in the supreme last year and he is priced up on reputation rather than form ,and last years triumph winner zarkandar has more solid credentials . the form of the triumph could have not worked out better and nicholls has said he wants to win the race most and has been training zarkandar for the one prize all season he could be a major player but he has had a few niggling problems this season and with his form working out well thre is not much juice in his price .

Mullins interview on ATR pointing Thousand Stars to the Champion although stating the Aintree race will be the one that suits him. I have taken 38 on here, hoping Hurricane does not make the race.

It's a huge price if HF doesn't show though, and for fear of reigniting a discussion I've had before, there's a fair chance Ruby would take the ride.

I think TS will finish in front of Oscars Well if he turns up.

well gentlemen irish champion hurdle day will reveal all.

CCM it's hardly a positive that he hasn't yet won over 2m is it? When he won over 2m2f it was heavy yet we are lead to believe he wants good, bit hard to swallow if you ask me.  More chance taking on Big Bucks if you ask me.

I am not saying he won't like the ground, however I don't believe the slower ground in Ireland he has encountered this season is the reason for his defeats, as he has previously proved he acts on it.

I disagree 100% CCM and his breeding shows more stamina than speed influence

.....but there we go!

Disagree with which bit rog?!

Fair enough. As you say, each to their own. I dont really have a strong feeling on whether or not he would stay 3m. And whilst I agree the World Hurdle is a softer option, purely based on which race wil be run to suit OW best, I think the CH is the right pick.

But agree he has very little chnace of getting placed. So in that sense, I can see whay anyone would say its the not the right choice! Still cant forgive him for last year, costs me a small fortune