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Cheltenham Festival
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These 143 comments are related to the topic:
toms champion hurdle pick!
toms champion hurdle pick!
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Replies: 143
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o.k howdi see your points he was beaten in has last few runs and by a horse he will probably be meeting at cheltenham , but as i recall man utd were once beaten by northampton does that mean northampton will beat them every time they play them , no of course it dont ,there are mitigating circumstances oscar wells may not win but segal would not have put him up for the fun of it . he has been running in races that have not played to his strengths i.e slowly run races on unsuitable ground he was about 3 1/2 lengths behind unnacompanied giving her 10 lb and yes hurricane fly does look as if he will take a hell of beating if he turns up 100 per cent ,but its a horse race and anything can happen and at the prices especially if you got the 25s each way he has a decent chance of being placed at least .good luck.
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Seathestars - I would hope it was travelling at that distance in a 2m5f race or it would be in big trouble.
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Well - how did Segal justify it then?
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you won't convince me foyle a string of ducks eggs to his name and beaten by The Real Article . Uncle Tom knows more than me but I can't have this with counterfeit
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o.k howdi its all about opinions ,good luck anyway
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and Man Uted may get beat by Northampton but theres plenty of Middlesborough, Everton and Chelsea to beat too
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What's Seagull doing next week? Champion Chase?
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he'll be doing the boat race next week
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Oxford, naturally.
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as i live there yes strontium
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just a thought of my own.
If I was Donald Mccain and HF didnt turn up I'd be giving a lot of thought to chancing my arm. Doubt he will though. He has more chance here than beating the Sacre who to my eye put in the performance of the season at xmas. |
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Tom & his sheep now have The Real Article & Oscars Well for the Champ Hurdle. I hope he picks something else with the pin he's using because the 2 he's picked won't even give them a shout.
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The Real Article? You sure? Don't remember reading anything about that in the column this morning at all!
B'a a a ah |
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picked him in the autumn
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So why no mention of that today then? Are you sure it was a pick and not just a write up on the chances of him for a race that was at the time more than 6 months away? I am sure if it was a pick/selection it would have been in the box would it not?
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I was backing OW for this race at the end of last season and the start of this, but have torn up the tickets in my mind.
However, I would disagree with some on here, and say that I definitely dont think he needs further. I think the CH is the ideal race for him and should bring out the best in him. I still think its very hard to see him getting placed, but the trip, ground, fast run race is what he is crying out for imo. |
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Spot on CCM.
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think people are getting way carried away wiv pricewise selections, he is a proven tipster, but alot of the time hes way wrong, look at last years selection for champ hurdle - mille chief, (done well to finish last!) last year for festival he got 2 ante post winner out of 13 selections the two been al ferof and captain chris, i personally ante post winners last year i had captain chris at 12's sizing europe at 16's hurricane fly at 3's so we all can get it rite sometimes!
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yeah denman the prices he picks will mean he inevitably tips a lot of losers but the ones that do come in mean that he can afford to have a fair amount of losers, he may have only tipped 2 winners but the ante post prices at level stakes mean he finished cheltenham in profit .
i think that he probably wouldnt have a bet in some races if it was down to him, but its his job and he has to put something up . |
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yeh i aint knocking him, hes is good, but to be honest i rarely back him for the festival tho, i like to think i have my only views and im happy wiv them on the whole, although i do sometimes back him throughout the season
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I'm pretty certain he tipped The Real Article for the champ hurdle back along at 33's. Rather handy the RP & Tom have forgotten about that ticket. Must be in the RP recycle bin.
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I was a big fan of Oscars Well last year, and put him in a lucky 15 at 20/1 in April 2011 (along with Sprinter Sacre, Bobs Worth and Weapons Amnesty).
Like Can't Catch Me Said, I've torn that part of the Lucky 15 up - in my mind the best case scenario is SS and BW. He may well run OK but he has a lot to find with the principles. I can understand Steven Segal putting up Captain Chris because he could well be the best of the rest behind the front 2. However, for Oscars Well, I can think of about 6 I'd rather be on ahead of him. Could be wrong though. |
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Think its a fair selection myself.
Maybe he thinks like me that the Churdle is tailor made for Oscars,fast run race on decent ground. He aint had that this season and thats what he needs to produce his best. |
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you throwing us a googly there CCM or what mate !
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Budd - I entriely agree that will see him at his best. I doubt his best is good enough.
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well we wont know that till we see him in those conditions,around 20's is a fair price to find out imo.
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Fair comment.
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Put it this way,the way he travels i dont see him getting outpaced and he stays well.Its of course possible he wont be good enough on the day,but i think he can be on your side at that price.
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For me he just sits pretty when not much else is going on. As soon as push comes to shove he finds very little and he hasn't got a turn of foot off a slow pace. Something says to me he wants further & soft ground. I'm not totally knocking him he's a nice horse but I think he will get mashed up in the Champion Hurdle.
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no way he wants soft and further ,just dont see that at all.
Decent ground and a fast run 2m will be perfect imo,he may get mashed in the CHurdle of course,but then again given what i think he wants,i think hes a big player. |
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agree with budd here oscars well travelled like a dream in the neptune and looked like a champion hurdle horse to me ,still a length up at the last he may or may not of won ,but 2 miles in a fast run champion on good ground he should suit , looks a decent e.way call at 25s nrnb , just reminds me of the way hardy eustace was campaigned in that he was placed in a good few unsuitable slow run irish grade hurdles and when he came to the champion hurdle he suprised nearly everyone !
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You're such a cynic Sint
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Oscars Well has raced over 2m 5 times and lost every time, you really think he'll break his duck in the champion? Raced over further 6 times won 3 on soft and heavy and would prob have won Neptune. Where's the evidence he wants 2m on good, just don't wash with me!!!
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Lol I'm glad someone can read the form book^. How people expect this horse to win on good ground over 2 miles I don't know.
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Well I've looked for hours at this race and for me it is about the fav however 2-1 is no price. Although I am usually against 5 year olds in this race I just think we may have a great bunch here. I was going to back Rock on Ruby as I think he has improved and will keep doing so, but the fact is that Nicholls sees him as his number 2. I think Grandouet will be the best of Hendersons 3. The bet for me though is Zarkandar it's a shame we have not yet seen him yet but I think he will give HF the most to do. If HF does not turn up and Mullins switches Thousand Stars then I think he could have a great chance at a big price.
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^ I'm sure you had have laughed just as much if Pricewise had seleceted Hardy Eustace 2 months before the 2004 Champion Hurdle as well.
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Uncle - Hardy eustace had won 5 2m races before the Champion. A surprise at the time but a world of difference to Oscars well.
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Did any one read his artical, what were his reasons for the selection? Never got near a shop today.
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Neither did I to be honest, would be interested in the workings of his mind on this one.
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Basic gist is Hurricane is the one to beat but can't tip him, Oscar's looks out and out 2 miler and needs a strong pace, Neptune is a historically good trial and he was impressed by his last run which he believes proved he has the pace for 2 miles(?!)
then states trainer has a good record and he jumps quickly |