Cheltenham Festival
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GRAND CRU GOLD CUP
GRAND CRU GOLD CUP
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champion court doesn't get home properly over 3...he travels, gets caughtn out and then plods on.....with half mile to go today he was running all over them....he ran a similar race in the 3 mile albert bartlett last season...travelled well but didn't see it out......grands crus smashed champion court up over his optimum distance 2 1/2......champion court is looking like an ideal jewson horse to me....and over that distance is a smart one......so at the 2.4 mile point of the race today with the way he was travelling compared to what grands crus was doing to him at that point....one might say grands crus form was enhanced today
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gc form enhanced
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reve
GC beat CC over a distance that CC is effective over...today was a completely different situation, at the 2 1/2 point CC was running all over the other 2....you can't use todays race to crab GC with a line through CC....as it was a different race type...if you want to at the thought of GC being enhanced then you can do at the thought of GC taking a knock today also. |
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i never said his form has been knocked but surely the fact that cc was travelling well half a mile from home doesnt boost the form of grands crus (
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strontium implied that he'd taken a knock today...i was simply pointing out that the two races were chalk and cheese and that at CC optimum distance he was travelling well against a couple of decent chasers...the same distance that GC had him beat out of sight at.
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ok!
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Duffy - now you're comparing chalk and chesse! You just can't compare the finish of a 2 m 4 race with the 2 m 4 stage of a 3 m race! I'm prepared to buy your main arguement about CC being effective over 2 1/2 but not longer, but the rest is pushing it....
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fair enough generally speaking but what i'm really trying to point out is that that extra half mile yesterday would see CC way inferior to what we'll see him achieve over shorter...i quite like him for the jewson.
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What now guys and girls? Looked very good to these eyes today.
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Impressive again today, they do seem in two minds as to what to do. The time today was quicker than the KG which may sway connections, but I still believe they should stick to the novice races this year. I actually think he'd absolutely bolt up in the new Jewson race, but hope they go for the harder race in the RSA. Think Bobs Worth will go better at Cheltenham and improve for the finish up the hill, but still can't see him beating Grands Crus on todays performance
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I agree RNL. The times are a bit of a red herring because the KG was run at a seemingly sensible pace whereas Mr Moonshine and Teaforthree went off like the clappers in the Feltham.
However, I think GC may well end up in the Gold Cup. It's rather cutting up with contenders falling by the wayside every week. Who are the Gold Cup players? Long Run, Kauto for sure. Rubi Light? Quito DLR maybe? Not much else unless one of the second season Irish novices who hasn't raced yet steps up. |
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dave, you are on the money with the Gold Cup
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I haven't followed this thread or Grands Crus odds for the Gold Cup until now. I am stunned how low his odds are for that race. Therealbandit and Gloria Victis have been mentioned. However, there's a large number of novices which have tried to win since Captain Christy winning (and that might have been lucky since I think that's the year Pendil was brought down). From 1989 know of Carvills Hill, Slalom, Cyborgo, Danoli, Dorans Pride, Unsinkable Boxer, Beef or Salmon and Iris's Gift. Dorans Pride was the only one to finish and not be tailed off.
There's a more full list until 2003 on this link http://www.racenewsonline.co.uk/newslink/archive/303/130303.htm |
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Grands Crus given RPR 165
Kauto Star given RPR 182 so despite running nearly 4 seconds faster over the same C&D (carried 3lb less) they reckon he has 17lb to find with Kauto... interesting By the way, 165 makes GC an almost banker for the RSA. |
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But they can't give a novice a rating in the 80's as he is only beating horses that have raced once or twice
Think is a major player for this years gold cup. His performance yesterday was brilliant, beating two very good horses with ease. Kauto is just amazing and defies all logic. How can he still keep performing like he does. I fancied long run all last season for the gold cup but wouldn't be backing him to retain his title this year. So who else is there. Last seasons novices looked ordinary and have done nothing this year to get excited about. Last seasons rsa has produced just two winners in, master of the hall and quell esprit. Quito de la roque has show n himself a nice sort but surely not quick enough. Could plod on for a place. Would not worry about running a novice out of novice company. Either you can run fast and jump at pace or you can't. And grand crus has shown he can |
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Plus captain chris and somersby proved non stayers and put themselves out of the equation
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I'm most definitely in a minority here but still....i was/am a big fan of grands crus and looking back to the start of this thread i was one talking his chances up as much as anyone, but the strange thing i am finding is that the more i see of him and even though he is being more than impressive the more i am actually going off his chances for the rsa, let alone the gold cup!!!
Yesterday he was mightily impressive but despite him settling better , he's not throwing his head about is he, he was very , very exuberant and i can see him burning himself out and not getting up that hill over the extra distance. I am finding myself liking bobs worth more and more, he hated every bit of that race yesterday and it became obvious that a stiff cheltenham will be far more suitable to him, although he didn't even get past the nicholls horse at the end i think he ran with massive credit, they were going a stride or two too quick for him, he made mistakes as a consequence but hung on in there and ended 5 lengths behind the winner, at halfway you would have been forgiven for predicting him ending tailed off. Was grands crus idling, that's debateable in my book and at the festival if grands crus runs, i think that exuberance plus the stiffer test will work against him and will be just the job for bobs worth. |
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Exactly wat i think Duffy
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im not impressed with bobs jumping.while i agree chelt suits him better i just dont see him jumping well enough,not arching his back and his hind legs are trailing too much for me.
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Still think Bob's Worth has a great chance - he hit the first hard and then jumped averagely at best the whole way round. If he can improve for a return to Cheltenham, which he seems to love, then 12/1 looks a fair enough price, especially as Grand Cru may be re-routed (Gold Cup or Jewson).
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personally think silviniaco conti will fair better out of the three in time. made a bad mistake at the 2nd last and got in tight to quite a few at an important part of the race when grand cru kicked on. people were saying the winner won eased down but it looked a slow tired jump at the last and a plod to the line to me where as conti was winding up at the death. Conti in a gold cup would beat grand cru for me. Shame dom alco wont be siring anymore horses as grand cru and conti look to be the future in the chasing ranks.
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Very interesting post Duffy and I am inclined to agree, or almost agree.
I still think he will get up the hill fine in the RSA, although there is more of a concern in my mind than there was a few weeks back due to his pace and enthusiasm to get racing from a long way out. Having said this, he got up the hill well enough in the World Hurdle and the Cleeve (on more stamina-sapping ground) and there is also the likelihood that if he gets racing a long way from home this season he will force the others into mistakes which will make it hard for them to grind away late on. Just love his attitude and his jumping. The real deal for me, in whichever race they decide to unleash him. |
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Yes good post duffy...
I tend to agree with a lot that you are saying and even though I tend to agree with you in regards to Bobs Worth, who is a smashing horse, this Grand Cruise really is looking a top class horse, just oozing class... People may argue about him showing so much speed but he injected the pace off a fast pace at Kempton and as much as I more than anyone would love to seek out some value in the RSA he will surely take some beating...It is looking a vintage year for staying Novices, one of the best bunch of Novices I have seen in a long time, in terms of class that is.. I agree with Tomdeane he might well get them at it a long way from home but you can get out short in the run and if he turns up in the RSA to safe guard if you so wish. He surely will take a world of beating if in the same mood in the RSA and would be a fascinating challenger if allowed to take his chance in the Gold Cup... |
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If Grand Crus were entered for the GC, I'd expect him to go off fav and win.
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Grands Cru got Topspeed 159 for winning the Feltham and 168 for RPR
Kauto Star got 151 TS and 182 RPR hard to draw any conclusion other than the King George was not run at Championship pace How would Grands Crus have fared had he raced in the KG? |
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No way would he go off shorter than Long Run or Kauto Star on the day. The money always comes for the Champion and the King George winner.
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AN INTRIGUING extra ingredient to the Kauto Star-Long Run showdown in the Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup looked increasingly likely on Wednesday, with exciting novice Grands Crus set to join them.
RELATED LINKS Gold Cup betting RSA betting Free bets Roger Stanley, who shares ownership with Yvonne Reynolds, said Grands Crus was "70-30" more likely to run in the Gold Cup than engage the traditional festival route for a novice in the RSA Chase. "A fast pace is important to Grands Crus and I believe the Gold Cup is the best option for him because the RSA generally tends to be more tactical and potentially more hazardous," said Stanley. "The quicker they go the better our horse jumps. I'd rather him jump round safely in the Gold Cup and finish third than go for the RSA. We'd then know exactly where we stand for 2013." The David Pipe-trained grey is unbeaten in three runs over fences. After winning Monday's Grade 1 Feltham Chase in a faster time than Kauto Star's King George, he was a top-priced 12-1 for the Gold Cup and 9-4 for the RSA. Grands Crus is now a general 8-1 chance for the Gold Cup. Stanley said that while he had yet to discuss a next objective with his trainer, it was likely that as a prelude to the Gold Cup Grands Crus would face his first test against seniors in Cheltenham's Argento Chase on January 28. David Pipe David Pipe: trains Grands Crus PICTURE: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos) The most recent novice to win a Gold Cup was the Pat Taaffe-trained Captain Christy in 1974. He had a reputation as a hair-raising jumper and had fallen in two of his previous six runs over fences. Since then, of the 20 novices to have contested the race the best performance came from Dorans Pride, third to Mr Mulligan in 1997. Stanley, whobought Grands Crus as a three-year-old for €80,000 at a Saint-cloud breeze-up, said he appreciated his trainer will be concerned over public perception of running a novice in a Gold Cup following the fatal injury tothe stable's Gloria Victis in 2000. "I'm totally in agreement we must do what's best for the horse and in this case it's probably running him in the Gold Cup, because that's a likely safer option than the RSA as the faster pace will be in his favour," said Stanley. "He wouldn't mix it with Kauto Star and Long Run coming down the hill, but we would see what happens from then on." |
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Interesting, I've never thought he would take part, but this is from the owner. Would love to hear Pipes take on this.
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"How to ruin a horse in one easy race".
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They need to consider the Queen Mother, they will surely get the fastest pace there and therefore according to the owner the horse will be at its safest
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Pipe's now thrown a bit of cold water on this
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/12/29/RACING_Crus.html&BID=465 I reckon they'll see how he gets on in the Argento. There'll probably be something in there the can assess him against. |
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tomdeane
02 Dec 11 21:17 Joined: 29 Jul 04 | Topic/replies: 514 | Blogger: tomdeane's blog OK, despite hoping he goes for the RSA (at this stage), I've talked myself into a little ante-post bet at ~16/1 for the Gold Cup. Simple reason being that I think that is too big a price. I appreciate that he might not run in the race and that inflates the odds, but you don't know if any of these horses will be running in four months time and with the option to trade out I don't see much downside. If he bolts up in the Feltham, beating Bobs Worth easily in the process, he will be considerably shorter for the Gold Cup, and if he gets beaten he would not be good enough anyway, which means a speculative opinion punt at this stage would be throw away for the right reasons (misjudging his ability). I completely respect the main arguments against him running a big race so early in his career. But... take a look at the ante-post prices for the Gold Cup, and look how threadbare the realistic challenge to Long Run is. As I said earlier in this thread, I personally do not rate last year's staying novices (at all) and although I wouldn't base my opinion on one bad run, Bostons Angel was desperate today and I don't fancy the likes of Quito De La Roque living with the pace of a Gold Cup field. Also don't think he's good enough. Just a little update so as to avoid any potential aftertiming accusations should the grey monster do the business in the Gold Cup: I was very pleasantly surprised to read the Stanley comments in the paper and have been able to lay this bet off at 10.0, to leave a nice free bet. To be honest I still suspect Grands Crus will run in one of the novice races but this trade has (for once  ) worked out as I had expected. Still think he would be worthy of the utmost respect if they did bite the bullet and go for gold.I think Long Run is very beatable, as is King Kauto. For all that I love him, he has to go the extra two and a quarter furlongs at a track he does not seem to love in March, and Father Time will play some sort of role (even if it is minor in the rapidly approaching March). And the Irish challenge is absolute gash. If it happened to be dead or softish ground, Grands Crus would go through it better than the others, too. |
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Nice position to be in there Tom. Good work!
I am old fashioned and I have to say that i would prefer Grands Crus to run in the novice. I always think that whilst they are a novice, they should stick to novice company. That said, I absolutely think 16s+ for the Gold Cup is a cracking bet because I suspect they will be persuaded to run on the Friday and this horse looks top class. Apologies if this has been mentioned above, but do the extra 3 fences and 2 furlongs make a difference in the Gold Cup for Grands Crus? The Gold Cup is also run on the much stiffer New Course, whereas the RSA takes place on the easier Old Course. I suspect the fences will make no difference, being a natural jumper, but whilst the horse has obviously demonstrated that he stays, in a typical Gold Cup he'd be running much longer than he has run before. He has so much speed to my eye, I just wonder whether he would be able to get home as well in the Gold Cup as he would in the RSA (particularly against known stayers such as Long Run). He will be running for approximately 20 - 30 more seconds on a stiffer track and jumping 3 more fences. Any views? |
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A quick one for people who are using the "stat" of a novice not winning the race since dawn run ( not quite a novice but as good as). in 1986
The top two in the betting are long run, trying to be a back to back winner. Only best mate has achieved that in the last 40 years, And kauto star trying to be the first 12 year old winner since what a myth in 1969. That's if you use stats |
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Good point RC re the extra distance of the Gold Cup.
When a horse goes into the unknown we dont know what will happen,added to that hes a novice running against seasoned Gold Cup horses in a Gold Cup. Its possible he could be ok with all that,but he wont carry any of my money. They have to be real careful with this one imo,this decision could be crucial for his career. I am going to be controversial and say his best chance of victory at Chelt would be the Jewson,and thats where i would run him.Lower profile maybe,but less gruelling for sure,and much less likely to have too much effect on the horse. Gold cup would be his to go for the next year. |
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ive not read pipeys comments today but il hazard a guess that grand cru will be given an entry in the argento and if he wins then they really have a decision to make.
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Tweedle - I can see that happening too. Time for Rupert had that plan last yr I think.
Buddeleia - i would air on the side of caution as well, the horse could have many yrs at the top, so at this eaRly stage I think the easiest option would be best and I cannot believe that would be the Gold Cup. |
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I'm absolutely gutted. Have a small fortune on him at decent prices for the RSA.
Pocket talking aside, I still think its the wrong decision. How any owner would rather finish 3rd in a GC than win the RSA is completely beyond me. A Festival winner is the holy grail. Its also the stepping stone towards giving him the bets possible chnace of winning the big one in the future imo. AS pointed out below, the extra distance is a huge factor. I felt he was coming to the end of his tether on Boxing Day and it was easy to make it look like he was just being pushed out. I just cant see him out staying the older more experienced horses in the GC. With another year under his belt however.... Good luck to them whatever they do, he looks a special horse. |
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Brandy - I think that's a very fair point. Personally, however, I'd be less worried about the 2 stats you mention than the novice one and not worried at all by the stat relating to Long Run.
Yet it is an invitation to think outside of the top three in the betting. Without doing any analysis, Synchronised will probably be the best "stats horse" in 2012. I'd also point out that no horse in the field met all the key stats in 2011, and that seems possible for 2012, so stats users do have to think and be flexbible! |
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Thinking outside the top three I'd be interested in Burton Port if I knew what was going on - speculative I know and you'd want to see him run fairly soon but finished in front of Long Run in RSA and his form over fences is 1111212.
Really tough and certain to stay but... |