Tom - he'd have to improve on his hurdles mark by about 10 lbs to win the Gold Cup.

Seems like I'm pushing this, so just wanted to reiterate I am in the RSA camp too! Just wonder what you guys think he would be capable of running to in a Gold Cup.

As strontium said above, he'd probably have to run to 177ish to realistically win the Gold Cup (possibly slightly less this time). My take on it is that he was well worth his hurdles rating of 167 and due to his age I'd expect him to at least match that over fences. What is key for me is that he seems to be settling much better this season, which suggests he should be capable of bettering that 167. I think, given normal improvement, he could well run to 170+ in either the RSA or the Gold Cup in March, so again, I think it comes down to how many others can do that in the Gold Cup. I don't think it's many this term.

Fair enough Bud, that makes perfect sense.

You've probably made a better job of explaining the angle I'm taking here though by saying "if Long Run, Kauto and Denman turn up". I'd say that's probably unlikely. If by some stroke of bad fortune all three missed out, or even two of the three (which is plausible) I really wouldn't worry about Bostons Angel and Quito De La Roque. Just my opinion.

Of course this would all be price-related anyway. Understand where you are coming from by saying that the hurdles rating is not useful information on its own, but as I say, I think you have to use discretion on a case-by-case basis. I think GC jumps beautifully and wouldn't worry about his fencing against the big boys, and as I said, seeing as he is learning to settle better, I think in his case the fact that he was a 167-er over timber is a good guide to what he'll achieve over fences.

Or of course it could just be that I fell in love with he horse in the Cleeve and am looking at everything through some very rose-tinted specs.

still cant get away from long run for gold cup, he jumped awful in betfair chase, if hed have jumped average he wud of won, also long run will improve as the season goes on as he always does, if big bucks wasnt around GC would still be hurdling, i think gc would fair better in  rsa, long run all the way to the bank for me... again!

Budd's last two posts are a good summary of how I also see the position. GC is a future star, but for now he's an inexperienced novice, most unlikely to run to 175+ as soon as March.

Tom, just interested to know why you think it's unlikely that Long Run, Kauto & Denman turn up for the GC. I would have thought that right now its more likely than not. Only an injury would stop any of them as it's clear that it's the main aim of all 3.

While I can see why the Gold Cup is being considered, Grands Crus has been very impressive so far and looks to have scope to improve further. I think the key to him fulfilling his potential is to allow him to complete his education amongst the novices this season.

Although he responded well and his jumping held up under pressure from Sonofvic, he will be put under pressure far further from home at a greater pace and by much better and experienced horses in a GC. I think he could well be a future Gold Cup winner but only if they don't rush it

I know what you're saying, regarding regression & age but I can't see why any of them would miss it unless injured.

Denman's path (Lexus & GC) has been set out from word go, and even if he's bad in the Lexus I'd still expect them to give him one last go at the GC. I take on board the 1 win in 10 argument it's one I used against him in the Hennessy last year to try and prove he was past his best. However I was wrong, as his runs in the Hennessy & the GC show he is still a force. I'm happy to put a line through the Aintree run and expect him to go close in the Lexus if anywhere near his other two runs from last season.

I suspect Kauto will run whether they go to the KG or not. I actually think they'd be better off missing it and aiming solely for the GC. This would allow them to give him a good break and come back to the kind of fitness he showed at Haydock. I take your point about Kempton suiting better, but I doubt he can run like he did at Haydock so soon afterwards so I hope they miss it, I suspect they'll probably run though.

Long Run is a certain starter unless injured. And despite the fact that age, regression are against them I expect Kauto & Denman both to be there also.

I still think although last seasons staying novices have not looked up to standard so far that at least 1 or 2 will prove themselves contenders in the coming months - most likely the Irish ones (Quel Esprit, Bostons, QDLR, Rubi Light). Add to that the possibility of Weird Al, TFR, Diamond Harry lining up - although perhaps not top notch - I don't think running Grands Crus would be the wisest choice.

I know like me you think he should run in the RSA, but I do think he would be seriously stretched in a GC.
I've no doubt if he faced some of those names he could beat them now, but in a race against the majority at GC speed over 3m2 which could possibly stretch his stamina I would expect mistakes from a novice no matter how good.

And how does he get a better rating than Bostons and Jessies??

i suspect his hurdle rating is part of that myself,has to be in my eyes,and if so has no bearing on his ability to cope with a Gold Cup.

OK, despite hoping he goes for the RSA (at this stage), I've talked myself into a little ante-post bet at ~16/1 for the Gold Cup.

Simple reason being that I think that is too big a price. I appreciate that he might not run in the race and that inflates the odds, but you don't know if any of these horses will be running in four months time and with the option to trade out I don't see much downside.

If he bolts up in the Feltham, beating Bobs Worth easily in the process, he will be considerably shorter for the Gold Cup, and if he gets beaten he would not be good enough anyway, which means a speculative opinion punt at this stage would be throw away for the right reasons (misjudging his ability).

I completely respect the main arguments against him running a big race so early in his career. But... take a look at the ante-post prices for the Gold Cup, and look how threadbare the realistic challenge to Long Run is. As I said earlier in this thread, I personally do not rate last year's staying novices (at all) and although I wouldn't base my opinion on one bad run, Bostons Angel was desperate today and I don't fancy the likes of Quito De La Roque living with the pace of a Gold Cup field. Also don't think he's good enough.

i think 16/1 is shocking tbh, i think hes a 50s poke!

youll be glad to know im generally wrong tom!

tom,
how would you price up his cheltenham target?

i think bobs worth will beat him

Sorry barnesy - I would say something like 3/1 he goes for Gold. If Long Run fails to impress (especially in the jumping department) again, then I'd say closer to 2/1.

Realise this sounds odd when I'm backing him at 16s to win it, but I emphasise this is from a trading perspective. Am basically backing my opinion that Bobs Worth will get tonked in the Feltham and I'll trade out.

A wonderful game of opinions as ever but surprised a lot prefer Bobs for the Feltham. He was good over an inadequate trip on debut and Grands Crus was not as impressive last time as previously but think firstly he's a better horse than Bobs, and that his better natural speed will work hugely in his favour round Kempton. I think he'll win easily.

Personally I hope that they stick to the novice route. For as great as Martin Pipe was his success in the top races was not amazing and persoanlly I put that down in some part at least to the short term attitude he took with his horses. He was never afraid to throw novices into open company and would often run horses 3/4 times in a week to exploit handicaps marks.
David seems to me at least to appreciate more of a long term view and I am hopeful he will keep the horse to novice events this year. Sadly, I think in order to keep his options open he ends up giving tight lipped answers such as 'the gold cup is in the back of our minds' so he does not close any doors. After the debut at Cheltenham the Racing Post ran a story that they were seriously considering the Betfair Chase just over a week later. Unsurprisingly, the horse was withdrawn at the 5 day stage. It's a shame every trainer isn't as open with the public about their targets as Paul Nicholls.

Fair play Tom, best of luck with your trade, but not your bet haha ;)

Strontium..

Being a french bred, who jumps well. I'd take Grand Cruise to destroy Bobs Worth at Kempton on Boxing day and would make Grand Cruise 2-5 in a match bet..

Personally, I don't see this as the right race for Bobs Worth and would sooner see him turn up in the Dipper Chase as his next port of call and think he will.

Taking on Grand Cru on a track I think he will like, could be a mistake and could lead to ruining his progression. Henderson won't allow this to happen, for me anyway. His jumping needs more time and Kempton isn't the place for him to find out at this stage anyway.

I really don't see a Novice beating Grand Cru off levels at this point of the season..later on maybe..but he is progressing fast..

If you were Bobs Worth's owners. Why would you want to meet him in the gruelling Feltham, when you could just meet him next season in the 2013 Gold Cup!!

Easy...

Well I just think kempton would be far more suited to the neat Grand Cruise..

Where as, a bigger track would suit Bobs Worth more..also think Grand Cruise and Kempton will put his jumping under the maximum pressure, which I don't believe is necessary for the likeable Bobs Worth at this stage..

From what i saw with Bobsworth the other day,i dont see any novice destroying him,not at all.
Beating Cue Card over 4 furlongs shorter than ideal is impressive form,and imo the best form we have seen yet.
I agree with those that say Bobsworth should go to Cheltenham next,think that will suit the horse.

Very probably - it all hinges on the Feltham I think. If he does smash up there I'm sure connections will leave the door open and he will be backed. Here's hoping for the trading option!

What does Champion Court's performance today mean for Grand Crus' form? One might say Join Together for the Gold Cup.